The war in Eastern Ukraine is only a small episode of reformatting the space of Eurasia. American political scientist Friedman in his book "Next 100 years" predicts the gradual fading away of Russia (and China, which will fall apart), and on the role of the gendarmes of Eurasia will come (under the supervision of the US) Poland, Turkey and Japan.
American political scientist George Friedman love in conspiratorial circles of Russia for his frankness. Conservative Republican and came from a Jewish family who survived the Holocaust in Hungary, Friedman had always regarded with distrust in Europe in General and in particular to Russia. He believes the European continent repository of the vices, unable after two devastating world wars to confront serious challenges.
Russia in his view – this is the last remnant of Europe taking on a burden that refuses to carry the rest of the continent – in particular, combating aggressive Islam and the cultivation of the myth of "the last white guys with balls". Thanks to the latest quality USA and chose Russia to be the "gendarme of Eurasia". The role, however, is temporary – until then, until you defeated the main enemy of the USA and China.
How will live Eurasia in the twenty-first century, Friedman, speaking as a futurist, wrote in his book "the Next hundred years." This book was released in 2009, and was written in 2007-08, i.e. at 4-6 years prior to the events, which today seem to us to be the main ones before the war in the South-East of Ukraine, war in Syria, and the actual disintegration of Iraq.
While the forecast Friedman accurate.
American political scientist has correctly determined that "in ten years, Russia will seek to reclaim his former power, restoring control over the old territories through economic growth and outright intimidation." The events in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 to prove it. However, Friedman believes that the growing influence of Russia on post-Soviet space will be short term, and predicts that in the 2020s, the country will "toil" because of a weakening economy.
2010-20-e years will be a time of weakening US influence in Eurasia (primarily because of economic problems, the second is due to the modernisation and reinterpretation of its global mission). And this time will use three countries to strengthen its role on the mainland. It – Poland, Turkey and Japan.
Poland will replace the decrepit Russia in Eastern Europe. Current events in Ukraine proves it. The new "gendarme" of this part of Eurasia is able to put together a tumor, almost following the contours of the Commonwealth, has already ruled in this region in XV-XVII centuries. It is an informal or even a formal Union of Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, and – in the future – Belarus, Moldova and Romania. Perhaps they will be joined by Bulgaria and Georgia. This is a new (another – as has happened in the history) "sanitary cordon" will protect Europe from an increasingly unpredictable Russia.
On the other hand, the tumor weight hangs on Europe, bringing discord in its economy and political relations between the major EU members (primarily France and the EU against Eastern Europe and England with Scandinavia).
So could the world look like after the victory of the allies – the U.S., Britain and the USSR over Germany and Japan
Friedman says that the US at some stage of the existence of "the Commonwealth" lose her control, and you have to restore with all sorts of difficulties.
USA, upsetting the case in Europe, can bring the power of its forces for the final decision of the Islamist issue. Friedman predicts that in the next twenty years (i.e. to 2030) the global war on jihadist terror will fade away, and eventually will become a small conflict with few consequences. "Trojan horse" in the Islamic world will be Turkey that will be able to refocus a significant part of the Islamists (at the same time untie them from the Persian monarchies, primarily Saudi Arabia) and gradually sakularisierung them.
"As for Turkey, the country sandwiched between Europe and the Middle East will become increasingly more important from a strategic point of view, and will become more important U.S. ally, while Russia will initially expand, and then collapse," writes Friedman. In this case, the Turkey took it on himself not only the remains of Mideast peace, but also Turkic in the Caucasus and in the Volga region and in Central Asia. "In fact we will see a resurgence of the Ottoman Empire," predicts American political scientist.
At Stanford University, analyzed a global database of e-mails (10 million emails during the year). And a picture of the connections between correspondents these people clearly reflects the links between the civilizations that have contributed to the American geopolitician Huntington
Under the weight of intractable economic and political problems, with increasing urbanization and politicization of the "new citizens" to 2030 years will collapse and China, lounging. Their contribution to the process of Westernization of the country will be made by the growing Christianization of the population. Something it will be like the collapse of the USSR, only on the basis of the controversy will lie no national question in the Soviet Union, and the question of "formations" – capitalist coast of China and inland archaic site.
That's when the monitoring of the decaying spaces of China and Russia in Eurasia will go to Japan.
Thus, by 2030-40 years we will see on reformatted Eurasia, three new Empire – Polish, Ottoman, and Japanese.
Friedman predicts that these changes in the balance of power will inevitably lead to conflict between the United States and growing these three powers that will unite in a broad coalition.
Further Friedman already acts as a science fiction writer.
"The war will start. And in this conflict one side will be Turkey and Poland (Turkey will fight for control over Europe), on the other hand, Japan is seeking to retain control over Asia, and the United States will be at war on two fronts. This war will be conducted with the air force, robots," he writes.
Friedman believes that this war will last about two years, until 2052, when the forces of the coalition (Japan and Turkey) will be brought to the state when you start to threaten a nuclear strike. By this point, the U.S. will seek to force his enemies to demand peace, not to destroy them with nuclear weapons. At the peace conference will be the creation of new States. The United States would get more control over the space, and their economy will grow as a result of the war.
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