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Global correction. The current "perfect storm" – the replacement of a major war
Material posted: Publication date: 30-03-2020
How will the world begin to recover after the epidemic quarantines and bans, to guess is useless, because it will be formed under the impact of contradictory trends. Linear extrapolation of today's or yesterday's picture is rather confusing than helpful. Anyway, the military analogy is probably justified in one. The current "perfect storm" – the replacement of a major war. The world stands still. Another two or three weeks ago, it was impossible to imagine that countries will start to close. Stopped public transportation, empty cinemas and theatres, the empty schools and universities, serious limitation of movement, total control – first is associated only with war. In fact, it is already announced.

The President of France Emmanuel macron calls on the military situation and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks in the style of Winston Churchill model 1939. The severity of the reactions is striking and seems out of proportion to the caliber threats. But it is clear that on the background of the panic is that the government can't risk should act proactively and with overlap. Start a chain reaction, out of which is already very difficult. A serious analysis of the crisis and its long-term consequences yet to come. While it is almost impossible to assess. What basically say is a blow to air transport and other communications, a fatal situation for tourism, the decline in business activity, is an important, but particular. In the end, the global economic depression is not new. Much more important is the social component.

The virus would not be such a powerful catalyst, if in the global system has accumulated a very serious internal imbalances, which were already on the verge of explosion. Moreover, the complex imbalances affecting the basic operation of the international mechanism. Global world to which we are accustomed, began to form about forty years ago, when the leading Western countries there has been a turn towards neoliberalism. The collapse of the socialist system accelerated the transformation – approved the idea of the inevitability of the globalist liberal paradigm. With her, nobody was arguing a separate dissent immediately found themselves in the rows of deep fringe. Disturbing calls began to be heard from the end of the twentieth century and testified to the contradictions, he chose to perceive as the inevitable costs of growth and development. The financial crisis of 2008, many were alarmed, however, and it didn't change the fundamental approaches.

As expected, the economic precariousness has created political problems for the second decade of the XXI century was a succession of violent conflicts in the middle East and in Europe followed by the political turmoil already. And in the heart of global peace – the United States and great Britain. Throughout the growing uncertainty about the correctness of the path spurred political forces (they were called populists), who publicly questioned the beneficence of globalization and interdependence. Over the past four years there was a strange situation. Common international rhetoric remained the same. The mantra of non-retrogression from the liberal order in politics and especially the economy continued to sound, proponents of another point of view (conditional trumpety) were subjected to sharp criticism of the progressive and intellectual community.

The world began to change in the direction called for by the "populists" – the sovereignty de facto came to be seen as potentially more effective and safer solution than cooperation and relationship. It is not only and not so much in convincing President Donald trump and the weight of the United States in the global economy, but in the fact that the ground for the turn was pretty prepared – companies no longer understand why they need complex political and economic structure, which is constructing a more cosmopolitan-minded chiefs. Epidemic – the crushing strength of the catalyst of these trends. There's no other answer, apart from the isolation and all. So ideological disputes are set aside, the security imperative dictates the course of action. And looking at what is happening, the conclusion about the irreversibility of deglobalization – now, not as abnormal, but a natural and all received process.

However, the rush to conclusions is not necessary. Force majeure will not be eternal, and interest in the restoration of the former models remains very large. The interest is not only financial, but also social Sciences and Humanities way of life which globalization has provided to the middle class, many arranged. Inclusive communication not just saved, but even becomes more pervasive – information component of the current crisis emphasizes this. However, the myth of the Internet and social networks as the universal unifier long been debunked. Unlimited communication does not increase the degree of cohesion, on the contrary, leads to fragmentation into disparate groups.

How will the world begin to recover after the epidemic quarantines and bans, to guess is useless, because it will be formed under the impact of contradictory trends. Linear extrapolation of today's or yesterday's picture is rather confusing than helpful. Anyway, the military analogy is probably justified in one. The current "perfect storm" – the replacement of a major war. In traditional form it is highly unlikely, but some way of resolving the accumulated contradictions necessary. And after it everything will be different.


Fyodor Lukyanov


Source: https://www.ruanalytica.ru/news/2020-03-20/globalnaya-korrekciya-nyneshniy-idealnyy-shtorm-zamena-bolshoy-voyne


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