The past year was extremely rich in events that effect the driving forces, participants and consequences will forever change the geopolitical picture of the world. In fact, the end of the first decade of the XXI century concluded and the previous page in the history of international relations, with its own mechanisms, the rules of the game, symbols of victory. What will we see next, can be regarded as the dawn of a new era of modern civilization.
The scale and transformative power of the events we witnessed in 2011, its importance was so great that it caused the downfall of a number of existing geopolitical centers of power and the emergence of new ones.
Key factors that influenced the geopolitical landscape of the world since the beginning of 2011 were:
- the ongoing financial and economic crisis;
- a series of "color revolutions";
- the mounting tension in military-strategic space.
The effectiveness of the impact of these factors has contributed to:
- the growth of dissent in society related to the lack of clear guidelines for development;
- the growth of social tensions as a result of the deterioration of the economic situation of a considerable part of the population of the planet.
The above factors and contributing conditions led to increased tension in global migration issues and, as a result, tensions in the cultural, ethnic, religious relations between migrants and indigenous residents.
Drivers of changes in the geopolitical picture of the world of steel, of course, the events in North Africa and the middle East, and the impact of the ongoing global financial and economic crisis.
By the beginning of 2011 clearly showed, the contours of a large-scale geopolitical scenario, which was implemented systematically since the middle of 2010.
1. In the middle East has formed a new geopolitical center
The most important result of these events was the fact that was finally destroyed the last decades, the system of checks and balances in the key region of world politics. With the conclusion of the game such figures as Saddam Hussein, Hosni Mubarak, Gaddafi geopolitical picture in the region changed dramatically. Changed the role and place of a number of regional organizations that participated in recent years in shaping the regional political landscape.
The result of the changes was the fact that on the area of Arab East emerged the outlines of a new geopolitical center of power, destined to play a role in the events that will inevitably unfold in this region in the current decade.
As rightly pointed out in his work "the Birth of a new power center as a result of the Arab revolution" the expert of the Center for strategic estimates and projections Igor Pankratenko, during the "reformatting" and "democratization" turned out to be that indeed a real force in the region today represent only the cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCG), which includes Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia. The outcome of "Arab spring democracy" is the rise of the undemocratic parts of the greater Middle East – block "oil cats the Persian Gulf". Definitely in geo-economic space has formed a regional pole, and geostrategic – there is a transformation of the subject-pole into a regional center of power.
And if such transformation occurred, it is logical to raise the question about whether and how to develop regional policy in the future?
Here 2011, also presented a few surprises. First of all, this statement of the White house that the traditional U.S. ally in the region Israel needs to behave a little more careful. Moreover, last summer, Obama made a very interesting statement – Israel must return to 1967 borders. Similar in essence was the initiative of the UN membership to Palestine.
In many ways, of course, such a statement was merely a tribute to "the merits" of the active participants of the transformation processes in the middle East. As subsequent events showed, Washington is not yet ready to abandon support of Israel and continues to see it as its main ally in the region. However, the trend indicated by us earlier, allows in the near future to expand the field for maneuver of the U.S. administration. It is not excluded that the role of the CCG in the coming years will change significantly.
The events of the fall and winter of 2011 led to a serious aggravation of the situation around Iran.
The fact that the Islamic Republic of Iran will be the next target in the geopolitical transformations, it was clear before. In this country has repeatedly been destructive attempts of active use of political issues to change the administration and change the political course of the country. Until recently, however, Iranian intelligence managed to successfully resist the encroachment of the country's ideals of the "Arab spring".
But Iran and its current administration do not fit into the plans of new world order formation. That is why, after the failure of the "velvet revolution" in Iran one would expect the application to that country more rigid, a power variant of change of power.
Prelude to "the decision of the Iranian problem" should be considered the events that unfolded in the fall of 2011 in Syria. In fact, from what decision will be found in the Syrian issue, depends on the fate of the plans of aggression against Iran.
The particular intensity of the situation around Iran was in the last days of 2011 and the first days of 2012. The naval forces of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and the exchange of harsh statements between Iran and the U.S. on the subject of the blockade of this strategic transport corridor, in fact, became the peak of tension in the region.
2. Japan loses the status of a geopolitical center
Unexpected changes in the world geopolitical centers have made large-scale natural disaster that befell Japan in the spring of 2011. The earthquake and ensuing tsunami has been a series of technological disasters, which inflicted a serious blow not only to the economy of Japan but also triggered the global psychosis against nuclear energy, which has also had a major impact on the formation of a new picture of the world.
When evaluating Japanese events, consider the fact that the catastrophe and its consequences, in contrast to the reorganization plan of the greater Middle East, have not been pre-programmed and taken into account in geopolitical planning, which, no doubt, have made their own adjustments to these plans.
Traditionally Japan over the last centuries has been one of the key players of world politics. Japan, as a geopolitical centre participated actively in shaping the current shape of the world system. One of the key features of Japan's role in this system was that it acted as a crucial element of the global financial system, built by the Federal reserve. Powerful Japanese banks were allowed to dampen the fluctuations of the American currency, and the dominance of the Japanese economy in the Asian region, until recently, allowed to form a guiding framework for the development of the economies taking into account the interests of the United States.
What the disaster, the Japanese banks were forced to focus on rebuilding our own economy, at times reducing their activity in the global currency market had an influence on the new geopolitical landscape which was actively being formed at this time.
The result of the disaster in Japan was the fact that China is steadily grabbed the lead in the region's economy. In addition, there is an assumption that the uncertainty of the U.S. in the Libyan conflict, and the relative lethargy of the European crisis is the result of "black Swan", which became the Japanese disaster.
The fact that the events in Japan did not fit into ongoing plans to restructure the world, is the fact that in this country when the world media was established, in fact, the information blockade – no one channel did not consider it necessary to focus on the situation in Japan. Few people talked openly about the consequences of radiation contamination. Only the crumbs of information leaking in some sources, you can fold more or less acceptable picture. To the outside observer was to be preserved a picture of that in Japan everything is so as before the disaster. Interestingly, the end of 2011, which was marked, among other things, the change of leadership in North Korea, oddly enough did not cause activation of information in respect of Japan – from the land of the Rising sun could not hear any statements on such important for the region changes.
3. After Japan loses the status of a geopolitical center and a United Europe
Of course, the activity with which events unfolded in the middle East – especially multi-month Libyan campaign has somewhat muted the brightness of the paintings, unfolding in the economic battles in Europe. However, the battles rage was here, no less.
The result of the ongoing crisis was that by the summer of 2011 Europe practically ceased to exist as a unified geopolitical center of power – was a victory for the principle of "everyone for himself".
The depth and scale has also hit the EU economy problems were so great that by the autumn of 2011 became a very real prospect of collapse not only the Euro area but also the entire political structure of the EU.
Characteristically, the destruction of Europe took place against the background of assurances of financial analysts that the crisis is over, it added to the situation a fair share of cynicism.
Today it is clear that whatever decision be taken, Europe will no longer be what it was before the crisis. In the heat of fights has been largely lost that cosmopolitan supranational idea, which was the basis for the formation of the European Union.
Most likely, the EU will remain after reformatting the new hard conditions. Will be taken radical measures to stabilize the situation, but the spirit and the idea of a United Europe will be buried for a long time.
The result of the economic collapse of the Euro will be the need for a new geopolitical project for Europe. What will it be – will show time. I'd like to think that during its development will take into account the mistakes that were made several decades ago, when he laid the foundations of the economy and political structure of a United Europe.
4. 2012 may be the year of Eurasia
Tectonic shifts in the geopolitical landscape of the world, who recourse to on the top of the new players and niverkevich with her old players, did not end with the disasters in the middle East and Europe. Not less important and significant changes have been observed in Eurasia is the geopolitical heart of the world.
The idea of formation on the Eurasian territory of the new Union were soaring in the air the last few years. Since the collapse of the global financial markets in 2007, which marked the beginning of a new great depression, it was clear that adherence in line with current global players is fraught with extremely negative consequences – one by one those same players would lose its status as a geopolitical centers of the modern world.
Traditionally, the role of the leader in the formation of the Eurasian perspective on world issues took over Russia. Even before the first summit of "Big twenty" in London in April 2009, the Russian side proposed a very unconventional vision of the current situation and ways out of it. However, for obvious reasons – no one wanted to lose their leading role Russia had to disavow his position on the eve of the summit.
As shown by further development, the format "the Big twenty" were only an instrument that facilitates the pulling time, not radically tackle issues. For all time of existence of the G20 no drastic decisions were made, the situation in most global economies have deteriorated, and the most clearly says the actual collapse of the Euro zone. The only things achieved by the participants of the G20 is pumping up the world economy a huge mass of American dollars and, as a consequence, high inflation and depreciation of national currencies.
However, the desire of some States to conduct their own policy in a key geopolitical area, threatened the current "rulers of the world" a very negative problems in the future. Reliance on Russian resources and Chinese domestic market could in the near future to act as a basis for the formation of quite stable geopolitical centre in the Eurasian space. This in turn led to the formation of a new project of a United Europe is no longer on the principles of Atlanticism (as is done today), but on fundamentally different principles of continentalop that tore a new Europe from the Atlantic powers and threw it to the other continental powers. And this is the end of the "Great game", and completely not what he originally planned.
With the aim to prevent the formation of the Eurasian Union in the summer of this year the press was running hypothesis of the prospects of such entity as the BRICS. However, a number of analysts, this idea was almost immediately perceived as negative – it's too many different countries, and they are spaced geographically so that to speak of a single Union rather difficult. Some even talked about flashing this project for British ears.
Subsequent events have shown that the idea of political Union on the basis of the commonality of certain economic indicators don't really viable.
That is why one of the most important geopolitical results of the year 2011 should be considered a return to the idea of forming a Eurasian Union.
An important achievement on the way to structuring the architecture of a new geopolitical centre was the successful completion of one of the two strategic transport corridors – "North stream".
Run it literally in one day changed the geopolitical picture of the region: the former players who owned the status of "transit state" had been deprived of this trump card that instantly devalued their position.
Next in line was the "South stream". And he also attracted the attention of throughout the year. At the end of the year once again intensified geopolitical rivalry. Beginning of December was marked by the historic decision of the French Parliament deciding about justice for the denial of the Armenian genocide in 1915 in the Ottoman Empire. France not only came to the "sore spot", but, in fact, had buried the hopes of Turkey to be in EU.
Turkey's reaction was immediate – the series of sharp attacks on the French government ended in late years. Turkey gave Russia its consent to the construction of "South stream". The decision was indeed unexpected – in the summer of this year, the situation around the "South stream" was so serious that the issue of termination of the project soared in the air - Bulgaria abandoned the project, Turkey did not give consent to the start of construction. Even the purchase from France of the "Mistral" not budged this project.
It is clear that Turkey accepted the decision almost buried alternative project NABUCCO, a surprise agreement that prompted the Russian government to adjust the plans to build the "South stream" - it was decided to begin construction immediately in 2012.
The situation with the "South stream" is not the only one, although one of the most revealing, from among those that demonstrate the significance of the projects implemented on the territory of the Eurasian States.
The answer to Eurasian initiative came quickly. Started with Belarus, the import of the riots of the "Arab spring", in a very short time has reached and Russia. Election campaign in our country was marked by the "Arab spring". But not completed developments in Russia on the eve of the new year, the situation deteriorated sharply in the other member of the Eurasian Union in Kazakhstan.
Analyzing these and some other developments in recent months, you can quite reasonably say that in conditions of instability of the world system and the looming threat of the second wave of the crisis, the Eurasian project can really be successful. Understand it and those who today is making maximum efforts to preserve the status quo in world Finance. Will it be possible to use the historical chance or the situation will once again be launched on the brakes – will show time.
5. In conclusion
The year 2011 will go down in history as the year of the beginning of the most important geopolitical transformations that will define the new shape of the world in the twenty-first, and, perhaps, in the XXII century.
The result of the tectonic shifts that have befallen the world order that determined the development of modern civilization over the past two hundred years has been the emergence of new and disappearance of old geopolitical centers of power.
And if such centers as Japan and the EU need to be reformatting and changing development paradigm, the project of the Eurasian Union today represent a good prospect for the future.
An important outcome of the transformation is due to the fact that a significant role in them was given power not the solution, and the active use of new information technologies enabling efficient search, and then to manipulate the internal social problems of those societies that have become targets of the geopolitical transformation.
However, it should be borne in mind that in cases where such methods have not been sufficiently effective, in the course of release and a traditional military force, as was clearly shown by the example of Libya. Using the same example was again demonstrated and proved ineffective, the international legal system of collective security – in the case of Libya the UN actually triggered the unlawful use of force against a sovereign state.
In the near future we may witness that some existed in the "old world" entities, such as NATO, CIS, etc., will cease to exist, and in their place will be erected a new geopolitical structure.
In addition. Events in Libya showed that despite the active use of "the velvet technologists", military force remains the last word eve of the twenty-first century, so the role and place of military force in new circumstances remains far from the last.
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