Sources are both internal (failed economic and social policies of the governments of these States) and external factors (e.g., factor, which is expressed in direct proportion to national currencies by the decisions of the fed and the dollar).
However, it is still necessary to note that under the failed social and economic policy means, first of all, the fact that government spending of left-wing governments that were in power in the period after 2013, the social needs increased with such a pace that exceeded the overall rate of GDP growth. This has helped to reduce poverty in the region with 44% in the mid-1990s, to 28% in 2014. However, this had only a momentary effect due to further crisis.
It is worth saying that the next crisis in the region LKA observed throughout the current decade. He changed the so-called "Golden decade", which was based on the main advantage of the geopolitical position of LKA - the presence of a huge resource base. Despite the successes achieved in this period: GDP growth, industrial production and foreign trade turnover, and reducing the debt burden, unemployment, and inflation, due to lower commodity prices, which reached its critical peak in 2013, LKA region fell into a deep economic crisis, which then led to political instability in many States. This is due to the fact that the governments of these countries failed to predict the fall of prices of raw materials, to prepare the economy to recession, to create and maintain the reserves (Fig.1) and to implement the reorientation of the economy from natural resource exports on the world market, cooperation within the region as a whole, the conditions for which arose during the "Golden decade."
Fig. 1. Dynamics of international reserves of Latin American countries, USA and Canada (billion.)
As such conditions for a reorientation of LKA intra-regional cooperation is to provide the following: establishment of the Union of South American Nations (2004), which are (in 2018): Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Paraguay, Uruguay, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, Chile, Guyana and Suriname; the Bolivarian Alliance for the peoples of our America (2004), which in 2018: Venezuela, Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, Dominica, Cuba, Nicaragua, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Ecuador, Saint Lucia, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis.
It is worth to highlight the creation of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) in 2010. The peculiarity lies in the fact that the purpose of the Foundation is to reduce the influence of the United States and Canada, which last is carried out through the OAS (Organization of American States), imposing their will and pursuing politically advantageous solutions through this organization.
That despite appearing during the "Golden decade" signs of intra-regional integration in the region today LKA their will still dictate US can testify, for example, the position of the OAS on the issue of Venezuela. So, first, 6 June 2018, the OAS suspended membership of Venezuela, with 19 votes in favor, 4 against, and 11 abstained. Then, on the 25th of September, 2018, the Secretary General of the OAS, Luis Almagro did not rule out the possibility of an invasion to Venezuela during his visit to the Colombian city of Cucuta. This was the clip shown, where the Secretary General of one of the catches of Venezuelan refugees with the words: "Help us! My wife and I, we are professionals and are here... Let the Americans invade". It can be argued that this movie may be cause the United States to send troops into the territory of the state, including, with the approval of the OAS. By the way, CELAC this problem is not engaged, which also confirms the still prevailing role of the OAS, headed by the USA.
One of the only ways out of this situation is the resumption of the continuous integration of the entire Latin-Caribbean region. This is connected not only with the economic factor, but even with the cultural and historical, as the causes of the ongoing crisis lie deep in the history, repeated refractions of the development of nationhood in the Latin-Caribbean region, in frequent change of cultural and national priorities.
The cultural and historical background of instability LKA
The instability of the region begins with the Spanish colonization 1492. Most of the legacy of the Aztec, Maya, Inca and other tribes were destroyed. But, more importantly, the Spanish colonization destroyed the beginnings of a special type of statehood in this territory.
Thus, according to N. I. Danilevsky died two individual forms of cultural-historical types: Mexican and Peruvian. They do not have time to complete their development, hence there is no possibility that they will recover, which was formed in the course of history before colonization. It happened in view of the fact that in the territories began cross-breeding of the population at the dissemination and imposition of European culture, and economic and political organization of society, therefore, all pre-colonial community of the Latin-Caribbean region has changed, however, N. I. Danilevsky said: "Only the peoples that made up these cultural-historical types, were positive figures in the history of mankind; each developed by independent start, consisting in the peculiarities of his spiritual nature, and in particular external conditions of life, in which they were delivered, and this has contributed to the common Treasury".
On the territory of the LKA was established Germano-romance cultural-historical type which was to determine the nature of further development. But Spain and Portugal, the objective of which was to support the development and final assimilation of the German-Roman type in these areas were too far in order to maintain control in the territories. It could not take advantage of the USA, which declared its independence in 1776 and began its own policy on the world stage.
The colonization of the United States was going in a different direction, it is carried out not only by Spain, but also France and Britain, because the consequences were completely different.
N. I. Danilevsky later wrote in his work "Russia and Europe" that the United States can become a new cultural-historical, in other words, "newamericans" type. In the years when he lived N.I. Danilevsky, this type is not yet formed until the end, because there was no basis for certain judgments about its development.
Today, however, it is safe to say that the United States are not part of the modern German-Roman type and do represent a separate cultural-historical type, which strives to spread its influence, as can be seen, approximately since 1823.
From 1810 to 1826 years in Latin America was the war of independence, during which several States threw off colonial oppression. In the Wake of growth of national priorities, slogans about the revival of individuality in the region of the first signs of integration in the form of the Mexican Empire and the great Colombia. But integration did not stand under the pressure of nationalist slogans of the peoples that were part of the Mexican Empire and the great Colombia, under the pressure of subversive propaganda activities of the former European colonizers, as well as fear of the population before a possible establishment of dictatorship.
So, next to is gradually gaining the power of the United States formed several weak States, which only had a way of creating its own system of political institutions and establish a new way of economic management after the former colonial rule of Spain, founded on the feudal nature of governance.
This benefited the U.S., which in 1823, proclaimed the so-called "Monroe Doctrine". Its basic principles were that the government would refrain from interfering in the internal Affairs of European powers in the Affairs of existing European colonies in the Western hemisphere, while demanding an end to its further colonization, as well as speaking against the attempts of Europe to regain dominance over the newly formed independent States of the Western hemisphere, as these actions will be perceived as unfriendly towards the United States.
Thus, "the Principles of 1823" can be considered a starting point in spreading US influence in the region LKA and throughout the Western hemisphere.
However, if we accept the United States as a special cultural-historical "novoimeretinskaya" type, it is possible to assume that thus he came into the fight with a dominant in LKA German-Roman. Hence, therefore, first, world historical process does not allow the LKA region to revive its cultural-historical type. Secondly, it also allows you to strengthen any one type.
The instability of this identity may be a focus for the current problems, because it makes state LKA, at least, vulnerable to external influence. Moreover, the failure of political institutions, the absence of a clear national idea leads to disagreements within the community, and most importantly, to fuzzy organizational structure of all States of the region as a whole that has its own dire consequences in form of loss of territory (Mexico in 1848), and numerous military dictatorships that took place in the LKA region during the XIX – XX centuries. The establishment of military dictatorships in the region LKA was possible only thanks to the fact that the military had the clear organization, unity of action, as well as their own vision of the state, which is absent in Latin America and the Caribbean, due to constant violations of independent cultural and political development of indigenous Nations.
According To N. I. Danilevsky, on the stage of the Spanish colonization of the region as a whole has undergone a "transplant". Despite the fact that it should not have adverse effects on the people who "transplanted" cultural-historical type, the author notes that in America "the transplant" took drastic and improper way. This is due to the fact that it should be exercised only in those places where the Nations have not developed their own individual nation as "those who developed a civilization in its purest form, able to preserve and spread it on the face of the earth, what would be the most direct, easiest and deystvitelnosti method of implementation progress",and in Latin America existed at that time, two native indigenous cultural-historical type. Colonization has deprived the peoples of Latin-Caribbean America his political "identity". And this is one of the main mistakes committed by the European community in relation to this region.
The United States also began to implement another type of transmission of cultural-historical type "vaccination" to a Germano-romance cultural-historical type, the essence of which is that it creates the conditions for the use of the people, and "anyway, the vaccine does not benefit of what is instilled, nor physiological, nor in cultural-historical sense".
Thus, throughout history on the territory of the LKA are fighting 3-4 of cultural-historical types: native (Mexican and Peruvian, which may degenerate into total Latin Caribbean), the German-Roman and "novoimeretinskaya". The lack of cultural-historical stability has further defined the political and economic problems, caused the establishment of many military dictatorships. It is therefore necessary to assume that the current problems of the Latin-Caribbean region can be partially solved thanks to the restoration of historical justice and the creation of a core community of this region in Latin American cultural-historical type. To make this possible thanks to the integration, which is not feasible, since LKA has many cultural points of contact:
- Historical community, moved General colonial oppression, the ensuing struggle for independence, as well as damage incurred from repeated military dictatorships and the influence of the "Monroe doctrine";
- The legacy of colonization, the Catholic religion in most territories LKA;
- A common language - the national language of most countries of the Latin-Caribbean region - is derived from Spanish.
Alternating renewal of the integration and the main figures of the "Golden decade"
After a period of military dictatorships, integration resumed in 1960. During the 1960-1980-ies have been established: the Latin American free trade Association (ALALC), the Central American common market (MCCA), the Caribbean community (CARICOM), the Andean group (GRAN) and 26 other international organizations. This helped to significantly reduce customs duties, increase of intra-regional exports. However, because of the desire of local political groups and businesses to protect domestic markets from external competition, which was "a direct consequence of the policy of economic autarky and import substitution," the idea of integration has been reduced to zero. Therefore, the 1980-ies – a "lost decade" caused by the crisis of raw material prices, noted the lack of development of integration processes.
Following the incentive of integration – the "Golden decade" (2003-2013), which not only helped to raise the economy of some countries in the region LKA, but also led to the realization that the US is actively interfering in their internal Affairs, thanks to the existence of the OAS.
Table. 1. Dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators during the "Golden decade"
The growing mistrust of States to LKA USA
Using his economic priority, the dependency of the national currencies of the States LKA from the U.S. dollar decisions US fed, the state, through Canada regulate the whole situation in the Latin Caribbean through the OAS.
Finding strength through the active export of natural resources at high prices, LKA has created his own organization - the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), the composition of which is identical to the OAS with a small caveat – there is no USA and Canada. One of the main tasks of the organization was to reduce US influence in the region. The community had great economic and political prospects and become a single bloc in the international arena. However, in 2013, is the final collapse of the prices of natural resources and the development of CELAC slowed down. This was largely because governments of the States of LKA was considered more appropriate from an economic point of view, to remain within the OAS and, therefore, not to spoil relations with the United States, trying in this way to avoid a complete collapse of the national currency. This approach was advantageous, as it finally turned these States into a raw materials appendage of the US, which began more actively to impose their will and dictate the rules.
Gradually, the illusion that the Northern neighbor will help them to overcome the crisis, began to unwind, and support US in all matters in the international arena began to decline.
Below are the results of the votes of the Latin-Caribbean region in the UN General Assembly on resolutions on the territorial integrity of Ukraine (27 March 2014), on the situation of human rights in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and city of Sevastopol (Ukraine) (19 December 2016), on the political status of Jerusalem (21 December 2017).
Table. 2. The results of the voting States LKA three resolutions in the UN General Assembly
A/RES/68/262 on the territorial integrity of Ukraine (27 March 2014)
(Russia voted "against", "for")
Bahamas, Barbados, Haiti, Guatemala, Honduras, Dominican Republic, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago
Bolivia, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua
Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Brazil, Guyana, Dominica, Paraguay, Salvador, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Uruguay, Ecuador, Jamaica.
A/RES/71/205 on the situation of human rights in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and city of Sevastopol (Ukraine) (19 December 2016)
(Russia voted "against", "for")
Antigua-Barbuda, Barbados, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Panama
Bolivia, Venezuela, Cuba,Nicaragua
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guyana, Jamaica, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay,
A/RES/ES-10/19on the political status of Jerusalem
(Russia voted "for", "against") (21 December 2017)
Barbados, Bolivia, Brazil, Venezuela, Dominica, Costa Rica, Cuba, Nicaragua, Peru, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Uruguay, Chile, Ecuador,
Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Haiti, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica.
· In different years, some state LKA, not shown in the table, did not participate in the vote.
From the table it can be noted that by 2016, despite the fact that both the first and the second resolution dealt with the situation in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and city of Sevastopol, the voting results are not identical. Only one country (Antigua and Barbuda) had changed its mind about this situation in favor of the U.S. position, 6 States (including Mexico - partner USA and Canada, NAFTA - North American free trade area) moved to the position of "abstentions" or for whatever reason did not vote. By 2018, among the States of Latin-Caribbean America is the only one who was willing to support US always and in all were Honduras and Guatemala. Antigua and Barbuda again took the position of "abstentions", which also took Panama (offshore state in which on a regular basis circulates the US dollar, and the channel which for a long time provided US quick access to the Pacific ocean) and Haiti. Therefore, the myth that the States of the Latin Caribbean region have the blind support of the United States in all, by 2018 finally cleared.
Of course, this can be attributed to coming to power in the US administration D. trump and his policy towards the States of the Latin Caribbean region. But the fact that these States are ready to act against the will of the one who sets the tone for all partners in the OAS, does exist.
Now that the US is absolutely not interested in the problems of LKA, due to which lose their credibility in the region, when the ways out of the political and economic crisis have been virtually exhausted, integration, on the contrary, it seems quite feasible.
From a geopolitical point of view, LKA has great potential:
- Most States have access to the ocean, therefore, Latin America and the Caribbean can also be connected navigable waterways;
- The special status of Panama, as well as the presence of the Panama canal;
- Natural resource potential:
- Non-renewable resources: high quality (65-70%) hematite and magnetite iron ore, bauxite, copper, tin, molybdenum, tungsten, lead, zinc ore, Nickel, silver, gold, oil, natural gas;
- Renewable: land, water, forest and agro-climatic resources, which possess the huge not used potential.
Also do not forget about cultural relations, which were listed above.
The role and interests of Russia in this matter
With regard to the role of Russia in this question, it is not secondary, as the Russian Federation may be interested in creating in the Americas a unified economic bloc against the United States, reducing the influence of the latter in the Western hemisphere, thus causing harm to the basis of their expansionist policy of "the Monroe Doctrine" .
In that case, if in the framework of the CELAC will be a single Latino Caribbean currency, this will help restart the economy of the region as a whole, will force the fed to reconsider the value of such currency taking into account the fact that it is backed up by the resources of the entire region, not individual States, and should take into account the special status of Panama. CELAC and the new single currency could be supported by China and Russia, which can also increase partnership and cooperation between the two States.
China no less than Russia is interested in cooperation with LKA. First, because of the trade war, the United States and China. Secondly, China is not the first year pouring their capital into this region (as of 2017 goal, since 2010, China has provided Latin America loans 123 billion), that actively interfered with the US.
Russia in partnership with Venezuela will play a fundamental role in resolving the crisis situation in the state. It will remove one of the burning issues that the US can not be overcome within the framework of the OAS. One of the guarantors of the sovereignty of Venezuela may be the remoteness of Russia from the state. Unlike the US, which began advocating for the troops to Venezuela, Russia is interested primarily in peaceful settlement of the situation of its ally without the final destruction of the whole economic structure.
It is recognized that the USA have a more favorable geopolitical position relative to the LKA unlike Russia and China, which, of course, preclude the latter. And at the same time, this can be a kind of incentive for LKA towards the development of cooperation with Russia and China in view of the fact that these States will not have the stifling influence in the region, which was provided by the US, interfering in the internal Affairs of States.
Moreover, it is important to note that up to another global collapse in prices for raw materials, Latin America has already turned its attention to the Russian Federation, which in 2012 said in an interview with the Director of the Institute of Latin America, Vladimir Davydov: "To Russia she looks with hope. Not always this hope is fueled by real actions. We sympathize, Latin Americans want Russia had a major voice on the world stage. For them always, and in the days of the Soviet Union and post-Soviet years, our country was opposed to unilateral action primarily of the North". He also noted cultural interest Latin America to the artistic culture of Russia. Undoubtedly, this factor still may be a "bridge" to future relations. Thus we can say that the basis for the development and strengthening of relations of these countries with Russia has existed for a long time.
In an interview it was mentioned that Brazil, Cuba, Nicaragua, Mexico, Argentina, Peru and Venezuela before the crisis purchased from the Russian Federation military equipment. The development of this area of trade relations should continue. Moreover, it may be necessary to strengthen the defense of CELAC.
And finally, the Russian Federation and China can act as partners of the UN in the General Assembly, and, above all, in the UN security Council that would allow States LKA to put on the agenda the issues that they do not impose, but which are crucial for States in the region. Integration of state of the LKA will allow them to have serious weight on the world stage.
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Porotikova A. V.
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