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Material posted: Publication date: 25-12-2012

One of the problems of world politics in recent times is the Iranian nuclear program. Around her formed a geopolitical alliances and combinations last time. The main countries who fear and oppose the Iranian nuclear program, the United States, Israel and Arab monarchies, mainly Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

The nuclear programme of the Islamic Republic has a multipurpose character, but two main objectives — on the one hand, Iran has its own oil and gas reserves, oddly enough, lacks energy. Iran's power industry is now based on thermal and hidroenergetica. In summer dry period in Iranian rivers dry out, losing water pressure, and many Iranian hydroelectric plants either do not work or work with minimal power. Overall, growing until recently the Iranian economy lacked energy.

On the other hand, Iran is one of the few countries in the world, with its large reserves of natural uranium. Their presence and constant energy deficit have become the major economic prerequisites for the establishment of the Iranian nuclear industry. Also the task of its creation was to reduce the consumption of natural gas for electricity production. In fact, Dmitry Ivanovich Mendeleev, which is, in fact, the father of the Russian oil industry, argued: "Burning oil is like to heat the stove with banknotes". The use of natural gas to generate electricity is, essentially, the same waste of natural resources, and this was for the state Iran is another precondition and justification for the creation of its own nuclear program.

The production of raw materials for the nuclear power industry and raw material production for nuclear weapons in the major industrial countries that have such, usually are virtually a single technological cycle. Highly enriched (over 90%) uranium-235 is at the same time as a rare material for fast reactors, and the basic material for the production of uranium for the atomic bomb. Plutonium suitable for the production of plutonium for the atomic bomb, made from uranium plutonium in special reactors, as well as energy obtained in conventional uranium reactors on slow neutrons in nuclear power plants after the capture atoms of uranium neutrons and further radioactive transformations. In the world there are many countries that operate only nuclear power plant tolling on uranium raw material on condition of return of spent nuclear fuel (i.e., materials containing plutonium) countries-suppliers of raw uranium. From the fact that on the territory of Lithuania, Armenia and Bulgaria are nuclear power plants, these countries became major nuclear powers.

The government of Iran, choosing the path of development of its energy (including nuclear), given the presence of the country's large natural resources of uranium ore of its own, went towards the creation of a full cycle of production of fuel for nuclear power plants. The main direction of production of the nuclear fuel purification and enrichment of raw uranium. The enrichment of uranium in mass quantities simultaneously in a single production cycle can be obtained tons of raw materials for nuclear power plants on fast neutrons and hundreds of kilograms of raw materials for atomic bombs. When used for electricity production nuclear reactors on slow neutrons with a high level of uranium enrichment is not required. In the future, as the operation of nuclear power plants in them begins to accumulate weapons-grade plutonium. Then it all depends on the will of the country – whether it is to take part of the fissile nuclear materials for the production of atomic weapons atomic of the common technological cycle, or not. Currently, Iran is producing only low-enriched uranium (20%), used only in nuclear reactors for nuclear power plants.

All other aspects of the nuclear programme of the Islamic Republic are purely political. Iran – one of the few countries in the world seeking to pursue an independent policy. In world politics, everything is arranged very strictly – either you are independent and you can influence, or you are an addict and you influence other countries. Independent countries on planet Earth not so much – the US, China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Brazil, Argentina, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua. Relative to independent countries can be called the major countries of Europe, which lately gave a considerable part of their sovereignty to European institutions, but nevertheless, it is Germany, France, UK, Italy. Also relatively independent countries include Turkey, Israel, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and others. All independent countries in the world one way or another are subjected to American pressure, because the United States claim to be the only leader on the planet and seek to destroy all other centers of power and influence on world politics. A small independent country, unyielding to the American diktat, are under constant political and sometimes under direct military pressure from the United States. Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, Nicaragua – these countries must constantly prove their worth and independence. Some previously independent countries, such as Yugoslavia and Iraq, were subjected to direct military interventions of the US and its allies and were effectively erased from the political map as an independent state.

The presence of the country's nuclear weapons and advanced missile technology allows in some way to weaken the external political and military pressure and to what extent, to guarantee their independence. A typical example is a small state, North Korea, in the past subjected to unprecedented external pressure from the US, Japan and neighboring South Korea, could almost single-handedly implement its own nuclear and missile program. North Korea in 1993, officially withdrew from the Treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, and a year later – banned IAEA inspections. Since 2004, North Korea made several official statements about a country has nuclear weapons, conducted a successful ballistic missile launches. Since the mid 2000-ies of the external political pressure on North Korea by the US and Japan was weakened, and now this country is still in the context of the ongoing international economic blockade and political isolation, but no longer fearing for their existence. Roughly speaking, from North Korea "behind", and now she can not be afraid of serious external threats, including military attack and military intervention.

Maybe this path is going to go and Iran. In contrast to North Korea, Iran requires a robust energy system, and the Iranian nuclear program is still active in the construction of peaceful nuclear energy under watchful control of international organizations, primarily the IAEA, which in turn pressured the U.S. and its allies. The state of Iran is now nearly surrounded on all sides by American military bases, the United States unilaterally on Iran imposed unprecedented economic sanctions, including the cessation of all international foreign currency transactions. The formal powers of the IAEA in the Iranian case are insignificant – this is a function of control and inspection, which are now carried out almost continuously. The funny thing in this whole "soap Opera" with Iran and the IAEA is that the beginning of Iran's nuclear programme was laid, actually, the Americans when the Shah's regime.

From Wikipedia:

"Iran's nuclear program began in 1967, when the US gave the Shah of Iran, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, the nuclear reactor power of 5 MW. Then technological assistance in the construction of reactors provided Germany and France. Iran signed the Treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT) in 1968 and ratified it in 1970. 1974 – created "the atomic energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), which has developed a plan for the construction of 23 nuclear power units at a cost of about $ 30 billion, with the support of USA and Western European States. The program was designed for 25 years. In the middle of this year has made a public statement of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi: "Iran will have a nuclear weapon, without a doubt, sooner than some think" – however, under US pressure, he later disavowed that statement. In the same year, Iran bought 4 nuclear reactor — two in France and two in Germany at the Siemens KWU. 1977 — West Germany supplied the Tehran reactor 4. 1978 — Iran receives American research reactor of 5 MW. Cooperation with Iran in the field of nuclear energy and the beginning of Argentina. West Germany began construction two nuclear power units in Bushehr."

The IAEA is an international organization for cooperation in the peaceful uses of atomic energy. The Agency was established as an independent intergovernmental organization within the UN system, and with the advent of the Treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, its work has gained prominence because of the NPT made it compulsory for each state party to conclude with the IAEA a safeguards agreement.

The goal of the Agency's work in the country state that work in peaceful nuclear region are not diverted to military purposes.

Members of the IAEA, weapon technologies and undertake not to transfer, and members of non-weapon technologies and undertake not to produce. However, membership in the IAEA has not prevented, for example, India, to become a nuclear power – India is among the countries with nuclear weapons informally. There is an advanced program of military-applied research. As a member of the IAEA, India, nevertheless, has not signed the agreement about the production of all of its nuclear activities under the safeguards of the organization and not acceded to the Treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, considering it "discriminatory" against non-nuclear States. Pakistan is member of IAEA, but has not acceded to the NPT and the Convention on the physical protection of nuclear material is not involved in international agreements on control over nuclear export. The availability of own research base, the necessary scientific personnel and modern technology to enrich uranium to 90% contributes to the successful development of the nuclear program. Unlike India and Pakistan, Iran at the time, signed all of the obligations and the agreement nerasprostranenii of nuclear weapons (NPT).

Here is a link to the latest IAEA report on Iran dated 16 November 2012 in the Russian language.

The report shows that Iran is the most peaceful program and there are currently a large number of uranium with low degree of enrichment (to 20%) used for peaceful nuclear energy. Throughout the report in several places there are records that the international inspectors monitor Iran's nuclear program, trying to find something illegal, but now legally and completely, to parts corresponds to only a peaceful nuclear program.

Let us recall the scandalously provocative and shameful Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu at the UN when he was the face of the representatives and leaders of all States around the world shook a pathetic placard with a picture of a bomb with a wick ignition type kernels of Baron Munchausen, whose tales, Netanyahu was probably reading in childhood. On this placard is for idiots, not for the leaders of other countries had drawn two lines – 70% and 90 % – two degrees of uranium enrichment. Netanyahu spoke at the UN in September 2012, and, let me remind you again, the last IAEA report on Iran compiled in mid-November 2012 – six weeks after the speech in the UN the heir of Ben-Gurion and Shimon Peres. A month and a half, the IAEA says that all Iranian uranium is in the degree of enrichment at a level lower than 20%.

On the other hand, the state of Israel is a country with nuclear weapons informally. The very leaders of Israel neither confirms nor denies the information about the presence of nuclear weapons on the territory of the country. Israel is a member of the IAEA but has not signed the Treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons.

The idea of Iranian nuclear weapons, together with the availability of missile technology will not be a direct military threat for both the United States and countries of the Persian Gulf, and for the state of Israel. It will only create a situation of real independence of Iran and the situation of relative strategic parity in the region. Atomic weapons from the opposite side is only a deterrent against possible attacks and other aggressive actions. Until recently, the middle East, Israel possessed an overwhelming strategic advantage (it is enough to remind one of the many facts – military aircraft of Israel in numbers of combat aircraft about a fifth in the world, is more than 500 units). This strategic advantage led to a policy of aggression and adventurism in some way associated with a sense of impunity due to the lack of deterrence. Examples of such a policy can be the latest Israeli attack on South Lebanon in 2006 (the so-called Second Lebanon war) and the attack on Gaza in 2008 and 2012 (operation "Cast lead" and "pillar of Fire"). All these wars and attacks have occurred in the face of an overwhelming military superiority of Israel. The loss of Israel's strategic superiority in the region must inevitably lead to some changes in its foreign and domestic policy may, to end the occupation of Arab territories, which until recently was provided only by military means and guaranteed Israel's strategic superiority in the region.

As Iran continues its nuclear program, striving for political independence and a strategic initiative of the current government of Israel has sought and will seek to prevent this at all costs, up to direct military attack on Iran.

In this case, the state of Israel used any actions and methods. In the case of the adoption of any decisions by the Israeli leadership, the Israeli army does not pay attention to international borders and treaties. Just recently bombed a military factory in Sudan and a large store of missiles in Lebanon. Although no wars for Israel, these two countries did not declare.

With the nuclear program of Iran in recent years, there has been a lot of strange. In Iran, there were several attacks during which it killed several leading Iranian physicists working on the Iranian nuclear program. In Turkey in February 2007 was the kidnapped former Deputy Minister of defence of Iran Ali Reza Asgari. "We have a lot of evidence that Asgari was abducted in Turkey by the Israeli intelligence services, and then moved to Israel," said December 15, 2012 in Tehran, Deputy defense Minister of Iran Hossein Daghighi at the ceremony in connection with the sixth anniversary of Asgari's abduction, which was attended by the representatives of the military and political circles of Iran. In 2010 in Iran was discovered Stuxnet computer virus that hijacks control of centrifuges for uranium enrichment. In 2010 and 2011 on some Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, there were several explosions. So, victims of the "mysterious explosion" November 12, 2011 at the military base of the IRGC Amir al-Momenin" were 17 people, including one of the leaders of the Iranian missile program, major General Hassan Moghaddam. 18 Sep 2012 the head of the Iranian atomic energy Agency, Fereydoon Abbasi Davani, said at a nuclear facility "Fordo" was a diversion. According to the Director, because of the explosions was disconnected from the electricity center for uranium enrichment. Speaking in Vienna at a meeting of the International atomic energy Agency (IAEA), Abbasi-Davani said explosions happened a month ago – the day before the UN inspectors asked for permission to visit Fordow. In addition due to the explosion from the power supply was disconnected and the nuclear center at Natanz.

The last Israeli war with Gaza, or as it is sometimes called in Israel, the Eight-day war, in fact, is the prelude to a new great war – the war between Israel and Iran. One of the main objectives of the Eight-day war was the elimination of the possibility of attacks by Hamas in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran. This objective of the war the Israeli authorities was achieved – a significant number of missiles and launchers were destroyed during the Israeli attacks, and the remaining ammunition was almost entirely exhausted by Hamas, and for its replenishment will take considerable time.

The idea of an attack on Iran – this is a personal war of Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli people don't really want to fight with Iran, polls show something like 50 to 50. But paranoid fear Bibi before the possible loss of strategic superiority and impunity in the region pushes him to war. Let's see what Bibi does for the sake of it.

On the domestic political front, Netanyahu thinks he's won – at the end of the scandalous, corrupt and simply funny because of "computer malfunction" in the most technologically advanced country in the world by Benjamin Netanyahu formed the most right of all the possible electoral list of the Likud party. Most likely, his party will have no internal opposition about the decision on possible attack on Iran. However, have to explain to the Americans, and after the departure from the policy of the current Israeli defense Minister Ehud Barak will do it much harder.

Apparently, Netanyahu, there is some agreement with the Obama administration about the attack on Iran. Recently, a few days ago here, the Mediterranean coast of Israel held a major us-Israeli naval maneuvers at the joint to the threat of attack by ballistic missiles. This is a brief message from the press means for the first time here in the last few years fit large American naval connection – not every American warship has the capability to counter ballistic missiles. By the way, in the waters there appeared a fairly large naval Union of Russia rocket cruiser "Moscow" and its accompanying surface ships and submarines. The pretext of their appearance was the Israeli attack on the Gaza strip and the evacuation of Russian citizens. Simultaneous presence in the same area of a major American and Russian naval forces has not been seen for many years.

The analytical website "Debka" recently, after the armistice of Israel with Hamas, catapulted never confirmed information about the possible appearance of American troops in the Sinai to prevent arms smuggling into the Gaza strip to replenish the arsenals of Hamas. I do not believe this information is the status of the Sinai Peninsula is, in fact, international is the area of former conflict, where any sneeze will be followed by an international reaction will need the permission of the government of Egypt and so on. Besides, the US administration fighting in Afghanistan and in Iraq, it will be difficult to explain to your American people, why the Nobel peace prize winner picks another war. Nevertheless, any measures taken to prevent the arming of Hamas, will be made by Israel and possibly the United States.

Most likely, the format of cooperation between the US and Israel in case of an Israeli attack on Iran will be similar to the following – up to the US on Iran will not attack, but will cover Israel from possible retaliatory strikes from Iran, given the large number of American military bases and ships in the Persian Gulf and the Indian ocean. Possible and a scheme under which the Americans will take their ships out into the Indian ocean, but will cover Israel here, in the Mediterranean sea.

Since the Hamas movement to the current level have increased their arsenals three years — from 2009 to 2012, Israel has a period of about six months to a year, during which Israel need not fear a strong retaliation from the Hamas movement in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran.

All this taken together means that the real potential Iran's response to Israeli attack will be actually Iranian, and also, perhaps, from the movement "Hezbollah". On the one hand, unlike Hamas, Hezbollah within the territory of another sovereign state. Roughly speaking, Israel attacks Iran, then suddenly, the state of Lebanon to attack the state of Israel – so will be regarded in diplomatic language retaliatory attack by Hizbullah on Israel. On the other hand, the movement "Hezbollah" might have some obligations to Iran.

All this means that one of the variants of the beginning of the war for Israel is provoking now movement "Hezbollah" – to strike in his Arsenal. I'm almost certain that Benjamin Netanyahu will not attack Iran, not pre-war with Hizbullah and not emptied of its offensive missile arsenals.

Israel's attack on Iran can be carried out with the assistance of the Israeli triad – missiles, aircraft and submarines.

Use for an attack on Iran submarines "Dolphin" German production will cause displeasure in Germany (see the story of the poem by günter grass on this topic). Israeli submarines can be involved from the two regions – from the Indian ocean and, oddly enough, from the Black sea if Turkey will give Israel permission to pass through the Straits if the submarine will require the presence in the Black sea for more than 14 days. For the duration of the stay in the Black sea of warships of non-black sea States to 14 days Turkish permission to pass the Straits is not required. The strike of the Black sea region is required for the destruction of military facilities in the North of Iran, which practically can't be hit from the waters of the Indian ocean.

Israel has very strong military aircraft. In the attack on Iran can be involved about 200 strike aircraft long range. They would require refueling in the air or on the ground (in the case of intermediate temporary bases in neighbouring countries in the region), and air corridors.

The main problem with the attack on Iran – a large number of objects in the North of Iran. To strike them requires at least an air corridor Turkey — Azerbaijan and airbases. Last year there were information leaks about military cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan up to the submission by Azerbaijan of military airfields. The main diplomatic issue for this area of a strike on Iran – Turkey.

Turkey lately instead of the policy of cooperation with Iran against the Arab countries trying to pursue a policy of firm leadership in the Muslim world. I will never believe that non-Arab Turkey will be the leader of the Arab Muslim world, but the Turkish leadership for the sake of this idea began to pursue a very adventurous foreign policy and in fact the military confrontation between Syria and Iran. As a result, Eastern border of Turkey was in war with the Kurds, there are Syrian rebels fighting against the legitimate Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad. The geopolitical interests of Israel and Turkey on this historical period coincided. Turkey and Israel have left to negotiate a settlement of the incident on the ship Mave Marmara" – the murder of the Israeli state 9 citizens of the USA and Turkey on this ship in international waters, and then the military cooperation of Israel and Turkey in the attack on Iran will be possible. Turkey is now negotiating a major Israeli diplomat Yosef Chanover, former Director General of the Ministry of foreign Affairs of Israel, former Israeli representative in the international Commission in the case of "Mave Marmara", the personal representative of Benjamin Netanyahu. The requirements of the Turkish side, famous – Israel must officially apologize for the RAID on the Mavi Marmara in may 2010, to compensate the victims and lift the blockade of Gaza. The blockade of the Gaza strip is now partly lifted, and this may be sufficient for the Turkish government. Israel for the insane goal of an attack on Iran was a bit humiliated in front of Turkey to acknowledge its responsibility for the attack in international waters on the ship Mave Marmara, pay compensation to the families of the victims and to the air corridors to attack Iran. Azerbaijan is, most likely, given a prior consent to their passive participation in the attack.

Roughly speaking, public agreement with Israel Turkey can be a sign that for Israeli attack on Iran is all ready, and it can take place the very next day.

In the light of the above, the question remains about the timing. The timing of an attack on Iran and the timing of the Israeli elections scheduled earlier on January 22, 2013, which may be transferred to a more remote period. The answers to these questions knows only a narrow circle of persons belonging to the inner circle of Benjamin Netanyahu. That's how the current Israeli politics and democracy that all issues of war and peace in "the only democracy in the middle East" – in the state of Israel, decides only one person.

Mikhail Osherov



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