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"The key threat to Russia — the weakening of internal and a social explosion"
Material posted: Publication date: 12-08-2016
One of the most important indicators of the state of the world — configuration of threats and, sometimes more importantly, their perception of the leading players. Ideally, understanding of common threats. Undesirable, but providing structural clarity is mutual suspicion. The most difficult situation is when the awareness of threats far at odds, but the same circumstances are interpreted in completely different ways. Russia and the United States today is a case in point.

Russia is the largest country in the world with very low population density and a complex zone of proximity. A significant area of territory makes Russia a self-sufficient universe, containing within itself all necessary for development. On the other hand, low population density and permeability of boundaries leading to internal fragility and strong exposure to neighbors.

Since opportunities for its development, Russia contains within itself the main aim of Moscow's foreign policy is blocking external negative influences, and avoiding being drawn into a prolonged confrontation with rivals. The main historical use of the Russian advantages were external peace and internal political stability, which are closely interrelated.

In its current borders (without the North Caucasus and Khabarovsk Krai) Russia exists since the time of Peter the great more than three centuries. Creating and maintaining the tough competition of the largest state on the planet — an undoubted achievement of the Russian people.

However, the Russian state is in some respects vulnerable. Russia has historically been characterized by long distances between settlements, the lack of natural barriers to outside intrusion, vulnerable communications, the Northern climate and short growing season. Many parts of the country unsuitable for agriculture, and the main production centers are located far from sources of energy. The government should ensure safety and to maintain a unified social standard in health and education from Magadan to Kaliningrad.

All of the above combine to make the country fragile, the production of extension product complex, and social change is slow. To support the livelihoods of a huge Russian state — a monumental task that has no precedent. Therefore, the key threats to Russia always were and remain the weakening of internal and social explosion (implosion). Internal explosion usually set the country back decades and occasionally raised the question of the survival of the state.

The government of modern Russia see the solution to the problems of brittleness and permeability in strengthening military security and promoting sustainable demographic growth. Thus, they seek to improve the viability of the state (vitality) and to make it resistant to external and internal stresses.

Russia's foreign policy is a direct continuation of the internal. Over the past three centuries Moscow has been the main dynamic core of Eurasia and the centre of attraction for the neighbors. Russia was one of the first brought the fruits of European culture in the Caucasus, Central Asia and the far East. However, the future of the Eurasian space in the XXI century will be determined not by Russia alone, which will be forced to compete with China, EU, USA, Turkey and Iran. Russia should be at the negotiating table of the great powers, not to become one of the dishes in their menu.

Key sources of external threats to Russia — Islamic extremism from Syria and Iraq, drug trafficking from Afghanistan, the possible escalation of conflicts in the former Soviet Union around North Korea or Iran, civil war in Ukraine. The priority of preserving strategic stability with the United States calls on Moscow to modernize its armed forces, the military-industrial complex, global navigation systems and space communications. Unresolved problems of European security and conservation block approach to its security force Russia to see NATO as a possible military opponent.

Of all the former Soviet countries, Russia received the most benefit from the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union the main objects of vital importance to Russia's infrastructure remained on the territory of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan (pipelines, Railways, ports, military bases, launch sites and production facilities). For 20 years the logic of the Russian policy was to withdraw from the influence of hostile neighbors the main objects of the Soviet infrastructure.

With countries, sentiment towards Russia-friendly, on the contrary, created a preferential relationship and unions — it happened with Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia. Simultaneously, Russia sought to lessen its dependence on Ukraine — Moscow to build alternative pipelines bypassing Ukrainian territory, a new base for the black sea fleet in Novorossiysk and transferred military orders with Ukrainian enterprises in the Russian. After the return of the Crimea, Russia no longer has vital interests outside its borders, neither the cosmodrome Baikonur in Kazakhstan or the Baltic cargo ports or Belarusian Railways are not a pretext for claims of Moscow. She will be forced to intervene in the Affairs of post-Soviet States only under one condition — if the Russian community abroad will begin to be repressed. However, in all other cases, Russia would avoid involvement in conflicts in the zone of its borders.

Russia seeks to take the place of a leading world power along with USA and China, but not yet able to achieve this. Waiting and gathering its forces, Russia has become a strategic balancer in whose interests to preserve the independence of its policy, and international assessments. A key international threat to Russia is the need to move away from the position of the balance weight and the forced attachment to one of the poles of global competition in the XXI century — the United States or China.

By Andrey Sushentsov


Tags: Russia , security , threat

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