The Patriarch of American politics, geo-strategy and the "great agent provocateur", the former national security adviser in the administration of U.S. President Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski predicted the end of the Eurasian economic Union.
"I doubt that the Eurasian economic Union will last 10-20 years, especially if in the course of its existence the team of leaders will change their world," — said in an interview "Газете.Ru" the analyst.
According to him, the Eurasian Union at all "would be unnecessary if progress in the normalization of Russia's relations with the Western part of Europe and Russia's recognition of the fact that it ultimately is a European, not Eurasian state."
A waiting list has become longer
With similar verdicts on the fate of first Customs, and now the Eurasian Union Brzezinski speaks for the first time. That the CIS countries are unlikely to want to join the Eurasian Union, Brzezinski announced in December 2012, speaking in the U.S. Congress.
"Who wants to join the Eurasian Union? I don't think the list is long," said the analyst.
Possible candidate — Georgia, but the Union with Russia "could cost her the friendship with the United States in connection with the importance of the Baku — Ceyhan oil pipeline".
Even less noted then, Brzezinski, motivated to join the "new Soviet Union" the countries of Central Asia. "Kazakhstan with Nazarbayev at the head? Very doubtful. He is so very good maneuvering between Russia and China and the rest of the world. Karimov and Uzbekistan? Even less likely — Uzbekistan is very strict in the matters of state independence," said Brzezinski in 2012.
That true? Georgia became a member of the EEU and the topic for it is closed. But the Eurasian Union during these four years, joined by Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.
Moldova is at a crossroads. 30 March, Prime Minister of Moldova Pavel Filip after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in Brussels that the Parliament will not ratify the agreement between Chisinau and Moscow on the accession of Moldova to the EEU, even as an observer. In mid-March, the President of Moldova, Igor Dodon said that the signing will take place on 3 April.
Nostalgia for the Soviet Empire
Euroelections Ukraine was a blow to the prospects of the Eurasian Union, not to mention the consequences of that choice for Ukraine itself and Russia. And this, too, warned Brzezinski. In 2011.
In one of the interviews in those years the analyst has expressed in that spirit that the Eurasian Union is a nostalgia that has no connection with reality and any effort to create a "new Russian Empire will meet resistance."
"Fait accompli" even then, he suggested that neither the Kazakhs or Ukrainians or Belarusians don't want to become part of the resurgent Empire. The former Soviet republics and particularly the national elite will be to resist the new education under the authority of one leader. Tougher that prediction came true in Ukraine.
For Russia, the expert also does not predict anything good. That sounds like a message from Brzezinski, 2011 for Russia: "Such resistance will further harm the ability of Russia to become a modern, successful, democratic, and later even the European government". Russia is part of Europe, Brzezinski believes still. And holds the idea that the cooling of relations with Europe would benefit Russia, until the collapse of the country.
Sovereignty as an icon
The collapse of the Soviet Union Brzezinski predicted a couple of years before the fact, in 1989. In 1991 in the Bialowieza forest signed an agreement on the dissolution of the Soviet Union as a "subject of international law".
Who knows what will happen in the next two years in the Eurasian space? No. But classics level Brzezinski want to read it more carefully. Here Brzezinski answers us: "the team of leaders will change their world". This idea seems absurd. Nursultan Nazarbayev, President of Kazakhstan, in 1994, gave a lecture at MSU, and offered to create a Eurasian Union of States. About it in interview "Газете.Ru" reminded Tatiana Valovaya, Minister for main integration directions and macroeconomics of the Eurasian economic Commission. That is Nazarbayev — the founder of the Eurasian Union, he suggested to revive the new integration Association on the ruins of the former Soviet Union. And, it would seem, why would he change the world?
But Nazarbayev is concerned about the loss of the sovereignty of Kazakhstan as a member of the EAEU. From participation in the Customs Union, Astana has more disadvantages than advantages, indignant Nazarbayev in a relatively successful 2013. Difficulties remain for the promotion of Kazakhstani food products, in particular meat and meat products to the Russian market, there is no free access to the Russian electricity market, limited opportunities for electricity transit, transferred the President of Kazakhstan.
An additional reason to doubt the necessity of the Eurasian Union has brought, and China. "China invests more in Kazakhstan than in Russia," says Alexei Portansky, Professor of the faculty of world economy and international Affairs HSE. In this sense, Russia and Kazakhstan — not partners, and direct competitors.
Ideologically close to the leader of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko also demonstrates the change, if not worldview, mood.
Before the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions, he said: "I not trade friendship with Russia". And now looks to the West and makes haggling over prices for Russian gas. Russia, estimated by the Belarusian leader, with $15 billion Refused to sign the single customs code, appreciates more independence than the code. "Freedom and independence is very profitable, — said Lukashenko. Is not assessed any money and numbers."
These are the words of the very batko Lukashenko, who in 2013 said that we should not fear the transfer of additional powers in the Customs Union at the supranational level. "Sovereignty is not an icon. Everything has its price. And if we want to live better, it is necessary to sacrifice anything, to sacrifice. The most important is the welfare of the people." Apparently, the well-being of Belarusians has ceased to be for Lukashenko's entire life.
Turn from China
Against this background, not so incredible, it seems to review Brzezinski, when he predicts "progress in the normalization of relations" between Russia and Europe. And not only in the increasing disarray within the Eurasian Chinna family.
After the referendum in Crimea in 2014 and the introduction of retaliatory sanctions of the West against Russia, the Kremlin, as you know, announced the reversal of its policy to the East. But less than a year as the first Russian business, and then and the ruling elite in Russia has come to the conclusion that China will not replace Europe, and that the project "silk road" China needs to press Russia on the markets of Europe.
"The Chinese are very hard negotiators," said one high-ranking government officials. No cheap loans in Europe and the U.S., neither the growth of Russian exports (excluding raw materials), loudly touted "pivot to the East" is not given.
There are diametrically opposite views expressed in the articles and interview Advisor to the President and academician Sergey Glazyev, including for "Газеты.Ru". Glazyev sees the future of Russia in strengthening ties with China to spite the United States and offers the Kremlin to actively apply the algorithms to the Chinese government. Otherwise, I'm sure Glazyev, Russia will be pushed to the sidelines of the European Union. Or worse: will be a collection of disparate enclaves.
Brzezinski, on the contrary, advises Russia to consider China as a dangerous competitor. "The strategic entry of China into Central Asia with the aim of obtaining direct trade access to Europe already leads to a significant weakening of the economic domination of Russia in the Eastern part of the former Soviet Union" — such is the opinion of Brzezinski stated in an article for the Huffington Post.
With that statement you can argue and say that Brzezinski is a Russophobe. Maybe that's true. But who will undertake to deny Brzezinski insight?
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