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Minsk meeting: diplomatic maneuvers and realities
Material posted: Publication date: 05-09-2014

The situation in Eastern Ukraine is becoming fiercer. In the armed struggle with separatists Kiev lost some positions. In the meantime, great interest was aroused by the meeting of Petro Poroshenko with Vladimir Putin in Minsk. It was also attended by representatives of the European Union and the Customs Union. According to the information widespread in mass media, special promotions in the negotiations was not reached. The parties remain in their positions. Experts believe this is a manifestation of uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe in General. In this context, some points of the Minsk meeting are of interest.

Complex negotiations: Kiev and Moscow don't understand each other

The complexity of the situation in Eastern Ukraine is seriously troubling the international community. War is even more fierce. Information received from the zone of military operations, conflicting. Reports on the success of one or the other side. But one thing is clear – in Ukraine people are dying, increasing the probability of extension of hostilities. And it's hard to say whether the winner in this war. The essence of the conflict is also not in the military successes. In Ukraine, tested the principles of regulation of contemporary international relations.

In addition, in Ukraine the geopolitical checked the possibilities of the superpowers to come to a common denominator. Unfortunately, there is too little hope for positive results. Meanwhile rumors are that penetration by Russia into Ukrainian territory soldiers and military equipment. Kiev says that this process is becoming more intense. Moscow denies this. Currently fighting continues. Territory pass from hand to hand.

This situation shows that the conflict in Ukraine is entering a very dangerous phase. In official circles actually talking about the Russian-Ukrainian war. Therefore, the Minsk meeting between Poroshenko and Putin was of interest at the international level. It was attended by the representatives of the European Union (EU) and the Customs Union (CU). The presidents A. Lukashenko and N. Nazarbayev was represented in the negotiations of the customs Union. The EU participants of the discussion were three officials – Catherine Ashton, Oettinger and Karel de Gucht. This format experts call vstrechai EU-CU-Ukraine-Russia.

As expected, the negotiations between Petro Poroshenko and Vladimir Putin took place in a tense atmosphere. According to Ukrainian media, the presidents were unable to find a way out. They discussed the associate membership of Ukraine in the EU, the possibility of a ceasefire in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, closing the borders between the two countries.

But the Russian President said that his country is not responsible for the ceasefire. In military clashes Moscow is not acting as a party. Kiev really should negotiate with representatives of DPR and LPR. It actually means the representation of the separatists as stakeholders. But, according to official Kiev, Russia is in armed conflict as a party. In this context, the proposal put forward by President Putin, raises certain questions. It is noteworthy that after the talks, the spokesperson said that they do not agree even with federalization of Ukraine and that can only go on the independence option.

This statement, the experts associated with recent military successes by the separatists. But some analysts believe this situation is temporary. So, a few days before these events, the chief editor of the magazine "Russia in global politics" by Fyodor Lukyanov in an interview with German magazine "Spiegel Online" noted that successes on the battlefield, can reinforce policy positions in the negotiations, "but Russia will not send troops to Ukraine", because to resolve the conflict "will all have to make concessions".

Despite this, it is obvious that revitalization for the last time separatists in the East of Ukraine is connected with the Minsk meeting. The Ukrainian leadership planned to go on these negotiations, clearing the Donetsk and Lugansk from terrorists. He did not succeed. For this reason, the position of P. Poroshenko met were not as strong.

Geopolitical interest: the path of uncertainty?

The Russian President insisted on amendments to the basic agreement on associative membership of Ukraine in EU. In the end, created a new expert group to consider the issues. Despite this, the foreign Minister of Ukraine has declared that they will not make any changes to the base agreement. And Moscow to concede on the issue does not want. The arguments of the Kremlin is based on the prevention of causing with the creation of a free trade area country economic loss.

It is noteworthy that in this question Moscow complains to Belarus and Kazakhstan. In official circles it is said that these two allies are trying to import European goods, replacing their labels. The reasons for this are demonstrated even Vladimir Putin. And who knows, Minsk and Astana continue. In any case, it is obvious that within the CU in this matter there is no consensus.

Even more important is the geopolitical aspect of the Ukrainian question. Against the background of NATO said they will deploy new military bases in Eastern Europe. But it also noted that would not be directly involved in the war, but will provide full military support to Ukraine. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also said that it would support Ukraine. Interesting Washington's position on the issue. Against the background of recent processes in the U.S. has not made any statements.

It is obvious that the West is interested in tightening of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. The conditions for the parties attacked each other until complete attenuation. Reason in response to the attacks of the separatists by the Ukrainian army, the West is not providing any military support. Slow even the process of sending in a combat zone from Kiev new ammunition. This question found its resolution after Prime Minister A. Yatseniuk called for a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers and adopted an urgent decision.

Experts are concerned about the lack of resolving any progress. According to them, the Kremlin would further aggravate the pressure on Kiev. Prevent this can only West. But the inaction of Obama makes it impossible to improve the situation. The conclusion is that the US and Russia secretly agreed to the arrangement in connection with Ukraine. But to substantiate it, no.

As for the EU, officials of the organization shall refrain from taking effective measures against Moscow. They prefer to apply sanctions. Russia is still able to confront these measures.

From the above we can conclude that in Minsk, Russia has made several of his geopolitical goals: first, it is officially confirmed that is not a party to the conflict; secondly, it demonstrated that by providing military assistance to the separatists, it is impossible to solve the problem by military means; third, she managed to present CU as an organization, which will be able to negotiate with the EU. Finally, despite sanctions and threats, Moscow has shown that it does not intend to make concessions.

Thus, the Ukrainian question is actually stuck. And exit is not known. Experts expect on September 15. During this period it will become clear whether the changes in basic agreement on associative membership of Ukraine in EU. The Kremlin will act in accordance with it. In turn Donetsk and Lugansk. Ukrainian experts believe that the Kremlin had deliberately left the issue like this. According to Moscow, Ukraine's membership in the EU should be approached in the context of accounting for its interests TC.

As you can see, to reach the meeting in Minsk principle towards the settlement of the conflict failed. This means that strife will continue. Official Kiev does not know how to get out of the situation. It is not excluded that the country will face a more difficult economic situation. If Western sanctions against Russia to anything will not lead, to confront the Ukraine alone, Russia will be very difficult.

The course of the processes shows that the strategy of provoking between Ukraine and Russia protracted conflict possible. Now no one knows what the outcome of the event. But the reality is that the parties are shooting at each other. The worst part in that strife-torn Ukrainians and Russians. This idea is confirmed by the tweets. Currently information about the victims in Ukraine Russian soldiers in the media is given a wide berth. And this can have an impact on public opinion inside Russia. The same can be said about Ukraine. In such conditions it is possible to predict that the uncertainty in the region will increase. It seems that this process failed to prevent the Minsk meeting.


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