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The world in 2035: consolidation of multi-vector
Material posted: Publication date: 18-08-2017
This work is dedicated to theoretical understanding and the practical conclusion of world order scenarios by 2035. The work is not intended to represent a pessimistic or optimistic picture of the world by 2035, according to the author, is always associated with emotional, intuitive assumptions. True think drafting a pragmatic and realistic scenario of the development of international relations through the study of current trends in various life areas, and based on the analysis of previous historical cycles and their internal logic temporal development.

Part 1. The world in 2035 – what it eats?

The modern system of international relations based on the principles of the Westphalian system and, more narrowly, of the system, which is usually called as "post-cold war"[1], is the starting point in the analysis of the future world order. Immediately it is worth to mention that the current paradigm of international relations is not just part of the "post-cold war" as a system, born on the ruins of the bipolar world of the cold war, but its more a spin-off branch, to preserve certain epistemological categories and characteristics of past rivalry, but transformed into something qualitatively new. An important aspect is the institutional and structural “progenie” – the gradual change of mechanisms of the device from a bipolar world of the cold war, then 17 years of a unipolar world with the myth of the “End of History”, glocal multipolar world, the emergence of new threats, conflicts, and new possibilities and perspectives. Therefore, a reasonable assumption is that the future world political and parapolitical planes also will not just inertial continuation of the current system, but new converts branch - deviation, which will give rise to another phase of international relations and, as will be shown in this paper, will mark the sunset of the modern system of "post-cold war".

Theoretical and methodological basis of the study was the systemic-structural approach to the analysis of world politics and international relations (B. Buzan[2], A. D. Bogaturov[3], K. now[4], A. Torkunov[5]). In addition, the methodology laid actor analysis (Lebedeva M. M.[6]). Of scientific methods in the analysis and prediction of future events used such methods as comparative analysis, statistical analysis, text mining, and modeling method represents the identification and description of system of interaction between state and non-state actors in international relations among themselves and with other participants in political activities using models to assess the advantages and disadvantages of these relationships. The use of these models does not guarantee accurate and absolutely the right result in the forecast of the world by 2035, but will allow scientific and close to the most probabilistic picture of the future.

The basis of my presentation on the following plane (or dimension), considered at the macro level, the world in 2035: the geopolitical dimension, demographic, ethno-territorial, cultural-educational, economic, and ideological. Each of these will be discussed in separate parts, however, it is understood that between the cash inseparable relationship, especially with the geopolitical plane, which affects the predictive character of this work. That is why the model of the future in this work will not be considered as a naked abstraction: studying its components in isolation, and holistic communication with each other[7] gives us the unique opportunity to study the derivatives of these components (i.e. future scenarios), which is at a higher level is formed and the model of the new system.

Part 2. System regularities

In the structure of international relations of the future will be cash two important level, finally fixed with the release of new non-state actors in the international arena: a hierarchical (classic, with Central control of the government) and anarchist (higher level where there is no Central control, but there are a number of politically and economically approximately equivalent actors). The system of international relations by 2035, in General, keep the current status of the system is anarchic (i.e., there are no unified control center), however, in the language B. Buzan, will the system "with a certain density of interaction" [8], not allowing the world to slide into a chaotic model of war of all against all. The lack of a unified for all control center will not contradict the presence of hierarchical interactions at a lower level, where some actors will be financial or other subordination to other actors more senior managers, which will be both States and supranational bodies, intergovernmental organizations and supranational institutions. If in such a two-tier structure was the sole, absolute monitoring center, it would be safe to say that any action of any actor can be fully calculated and predictable because of its accountability to the center, which today in practice is not observed and will not be observed, even after 20 years. Along with this, interoperability is a variable, not a constant value, which in the history were not a few steps, when a low level of interaction threatened the very existence of an international system of relationships. Organizations and institutions like the UN, the Arab League, CIS, NATO, etc. though and have a high level of consistency, manifested in the accountability of members of the system (States, organizations-members) to the governing body of the organization, but their hierarchy is not absolute including the voluntary unity of the members under this system, it means they have a certain independence. Between institutions and organizations of international level, combining the state and other organizations, there is no clearly defined vertical hierarchy. If you imagine that in the future such structures will have a large amount of centralized power, and their members give up their own independence, then it is possible that the anarchic nature of the international system will come to an end. Such a development cannot be ruled out completely, however, it is unlikely in the medium range (15-25 years).

While preserving duplex structures, different tactile pattern which will continue until 2035, will be the quantitative and qualitative increase in the role of non-governmental actors, civil society and community organizations, covering more than one geographical area. Proof of the growing power of these actors at the international level, the formal links between NGOs and international organizations like the UN, World Bank and who, increased by 46 percent in just over desyatiletie.[9] As a result, international practice increasingly managerial functions will be "redistributed from the state to other participants in international interaction"[10]that ensures the further erosion of state sovereignty. For economically powerful States, like the UK, USA or China, I feel relatively comfortable in the data flow changes, whose economies already are scattered in the international course and ready for such redistribution, the shift of sovereignty will not be a problem. Largely, considering the fact that the sovereignty of the States sufficiently flexible and is based on very flexible stems ideological hegemony of the currency (the Anglo-Saxon tradition) and transformed under the influence of communism, Confucianism (China)[11]. For States with a medium level of flexibility (which could be considered Russia, the developed countries of Western and Eastern Europe) who, in search of or experiencing a crisis of the ideological basis (e.g., the crisis of multiculturalism), but economically self-sufficient, the erosion of state sovereignty to other actors may have consequences of mixed character, i.e. as a negative (the growth of centrifugal forces, fueled by non-state actors), and positive (the gradual transformation of the vertical management, the acquisition of its flexibility) impacts. However, this process will have extremely negative effects for economically weak countries with a multiethnic population, as in the case of the struggle for the preservation of the full sovereignty with the actors mentioned above, the governments of such States will be to pursue a reactionary policy that will entail the creation of new totalitarian regimes and quasi that, using the legal guarantees provided to them sovereignty, will seek to maintain power by any means, "thus creating hotbeds of terrorism and instability" [12].

Thus, by 2035, the international system of relations, while maintaining its anarchic character and strengthening it at the expense of influence and the increased role of non-state actors, will continue the movement toward multi-vector development, which will be missing a single unipolar power, cash at the beginning of the era of "post-cold war".

Part 3. Changes in the measurement system

The measurement system will also undergo certain transformations on the component level (i.e., the measurements themselves) will be more radical than at the level of the whole system (the current model of international relations "post-cold war") as a whole. By all the laws of dialectics, such a development of things in the end will lead to a change of the system itself.

Consider changes that can occur in each of the dimensions separately.

. The geopolitical dimension

The absence of a single hegemon in the United States and the global final disappointment in a unipolar model of the universal Western values has given impetus to States like Russia and China to intensify its geopolitical will in the international space. These States, as well as the alternative system of values promoted by them through new integration projects by type-States or the BRICS in the coming decades will help to strengthen their geopolitical positions. In the case of China, where the continuity of the state secured and proven past decades and the changing political situation is unlikely, the prospect of a more definite and predictable than in the case of Russia, where foreign policy can be changed by political change. For example, if the power in Russia in the next decade will come of the policy of neoliberal wing, Russia can permanently leave the world of geopolitics, moving on ideological inertia imposed by other actors from outside. If internal stability is to be retained, ceteris paribus, both Russia and China by 2035 have the potential to become a full-fledged global center of gravity, is already competing on an equal footing with the US and even overtaking them in some planes, which will be discussed below. These three States at the global level will create three centres of gravity, to which will gravitate the rest of the forces. States of the European Union, finally realizing the failure of migration policies and detrimental of multiculturalism, will make the reverse leap to the level of nation-States, but will not be able to restore its former grandeur and its global dominant position, thereby taking place between the three centers of gravity. Of course, the United States will not voluntarily accept the loss of the sole global influence, which will result in a growing number of regional conflicts where U.S. interests will collide with the interests of Russia and China. By 2035, three centers are not to engage in direct open military collision with each other, because such a collision will be fatal consequences for all bezyzluchatel, but indirect confrontation, including on the territory of other States, will only increase. The result of such geopolitical games will be that the world will remain only an isolated oasis of stability, with only a few of them are in Europe.[13]

Thus, in the next 20 years, the probability of a global world war will be low, but, at the same time, the probability of the emergence of new regional hot spots and the continuation of the current local conflicts in ethnic, religious and other contradictions only increase. The role of the UN, the effectiveness of which is subject to skepticism now and will continue to be the center of fierce criticism, particularly in the context of the increasing number of conflicts around the world, will gradually decline, which will undermine the credibility of the United Nations: formally, the structure will be saved, but its influence on other actors in the international process is considerably reduced to the level preceding the UN the League of Nations. Thus, the uniformity of the international political system "post-cold war" would be changed, which will also contribute to the increased role of non-state actors for whom international law would be significantly expanded. Geopolitical triumvirate of Russia, China and the United States with its own zones of influence to literally divide the world into three relatively Autonomous systems, each of which will have its own rules, rights and attitudes, not necessarily consonant with the ideas of the United Nations. The Central regions of geostrategic importance will be areas that will take place on the border between the zones of influence of the three centres. It is difficult to say which area will cover each of the centers of influence, but it is possible that section will be made on the basis of geographical proximity to the center (Fig. 1). Naturally, in this picture of the world it is possible to have a kind of "exclaves" - territories that are geographically located in the area, but ideologically attracted to the other. Such yavlyaenie will not be a novelty: a striking example in the 20th century was Communist Cuba.

    

Figure 1 Map of geopolitical zones of influence of the three global centers of Russian, American and Chinese, by 2035

According to a hypothetical scenario, India will be part of the attraction of the Russian and Africa and part of South America, primarily because of economic dependence and the impossibility of its overcoming will be under the influence of China. The US will retain dominance in the part of Western Europe and the world, where nationalist sentiment will not be able to overcome the economic relationship and the currency hegemony of the Anglo-Saxon world (Australia and Oceania, UK, Spain, part of the Middle East and Northern Europe). It is noteworthy that Russia and China will have more adjacent zones of influence than Russia and USA, or USA and China, respectively, the flexibility of the Russian-Chinese borders will be in contact much more.

b. Demographic and ethno-territorial measure

If current demographic trends[14] continues, the population of the Earth reached by 2035 level of approximately 9 billion people[15], will pass through the next stage of global migration. The countries now in the category of "developed", but with serious demographic problems, in particular, the States of Western Europe, will be a great object for the next Great migration from East to West, which, under the conditions of escalation of regional tensions and fresh outbreaks of conflict foci may encompass more than a billion people. The response of Western countries, where the power gradually will come to power called far-right today, will be a complete rejection of the reckless policy of multiculturalism and a return to the concept of "nation state". Other States whose economies are mired in the migrant workers will not be able to function otherwise, will gradually become hostage to the ethnic shift, becoming areas of extreme ethno-political volatility. The ageing of the European population and its demographic decline, coupled with the enormous influx of migrants relatively young age, unburdened by the ideological postulates of the Old world and aspiring to "developed" countries, would enhance the political centrifugal once United Europe. If these changes do not entail the collapse of the United Europe, will become the prelude to its inevitable decline, followed by economic extinction.

V. Cultural, educational and ideological dimension

Increasingly indifferent to Catholicism, the European population will gradually look for spiritual satisfaction in other religious movements. Islam is experiencing a Renaissance, partly adapting their teaching to scientific advances and almost be compared to the number of followers of Christianity[16], continuing the trend of rapid growth. Coupled with a demographic situation that will create the conditions under which the most viable centers of Christianity will be only Latin America and some areas of Russian influence. Chinese Confucianism, without being a pure religion, will not enter into a confrontation with world religions. At the same time, China will actively promote the expansion uvelicheniyu own living space, which will be possible not only through the use of military force as due to the policy of "soft" (soft) and "smart" (smart) action, in which China has all chances to overtake the United States.

On the threshold of a new demographic and ethno-social challenges will be and Russia, the percentage of the Russian population which, at current trends, will only decrease.[17] nevertheless, the unique civilizational culture of Russia will attract an increasing number of people, including from other Nations and nationalities, and will save the country from the fate of its predecessors. With the correct formulation of the priorities of the state policy, consolidation of the multinational Russian state around its own inclusive cultural and ideological paradigms of Eurasianism will support and push for the passionate rise of the Eurasian-Russian civilization. With proper systemic-institutional approach, continuity of educational conservatism from one government to another, Russia will be able to finalize the ideology of Eurasianism, which is understood through Consolidation of Multi-vector. Consolidation of Multi-vector is a Union of minds, the unity of the spirit and systems thinking creative type, focused on the aggregation, and then the synthesis of the political, spiritual, religious, cultural, economic and any other movements whose members think and work in the style conscious (and not imposed) coherence. The rise of the principle of Multi-vector to Consolidation the backbone of Eurasian integration will allow Russia, first, to survive in conditions of displacement of state sovereignty, and ethno-social crises, which will replace the current world order "post-cold war". Secondly, on the basis of logical and spiritually organic ideology Consolidation of Multi (Russian Eurasianism), Russia will be able to create the flexibility and vividness not inferior to Confucianism, which, in turn, would give Russia, on the one hand, a huge margin of safety against ethno-social, cultural and demographic challenges, on the other hand, will allow actively to export its own ideology, its influence by providing a huge space, as shown in the figure above. Although today "the vulnerability of Russia's integration project is not just a smaller demographic and economic potential, but primarily in the infancy of his political and ideological value positions"[18], however, in the future, subject to the aforementioned conditions and to ensure their transition from Usmanova level of mass consciousness, the Consolidation of multiple options will give the key to the creation of positions that would meet the planned provisions and would provide genuine Gosudarstvennosti all the internal forces of the Eurasian-Russian civilization, even in the face of shifting state sovereignty.

g. The economic dimension

The intertwining of monetary and financial flows in the world reached its peak after the government deficits will become so large that the peg to a single currency unit (the dollar) has run its course. The U.S. currency will have to share the pedestal with other reserve currencies: the yen, the yuan. The preservation of the Euro as these currencies is possible, but the probability of the gradual disappearance of the single European units should not be underestimated. The collapse of the world into three regional unit can also promote the reserve currency, on par with rise of the Russian ruble, or Eurasian "successor". By 2035, we can expect a full entry into use of digital assets, crypto currency, which can also vary depending on your regional unit, while functionally remaining completely decentralized.

Given the above-mentioned scenarios, we can expect even more than now offset financial centres of the world from Europe to Asia. African States and Latin American countries though and will raise the level of their economies, but to bridge the gap with the developed States did not completely fail. Despite the potential geopolitical clashes and rivalry between the three world centers of gravity, should not expect their comprehensive economic isolation; active conctate between them will not cease. Along with this, we can expect a General decline in the standard of living in the world, as well as the reduction of the consumer basket. The extent of these reductions is difficult to predict, however their causes can be foreseen: the demographic situation, the reduction in safe areas (only oases of stability), the depletion of natural resources.

Conclusion

For all the apparent pessimism of the scenario changes in world relations by 2035, it is worth noting that these developments most likely assuming continuation of current macro-level political economic trends. Forecasting can never give absolute results, but the search for absolute certainty and is not a key purpose of this work: the search for the paintings transform the current system of international relations should help us to understand the characteristics of these transformations, their causes, and the consequences that Russia must be prepared, which in turn is guaranteed only through the implementation of civilizational and ideological programme of consolidation of peoples and natsionalnoystey, Consolidation of Multi-vector in Russia and abroad.

 

[1] i.e., the system that emerged after Yalta-Potsdam system of the end of the cold war. Torkunov. A. Modern international relations // M.: "Russian political encyclopedia" (ROSSPEN), 1999 / Library Gumer – Science. Online: http://www.gumer.info/bibliotek_Buks/Polit/tork/02.php

[2] Buzan B. Levels of analysis in international relations // International relations: sociological approaches. / B. Buzan, M., 1998.

[3] A. D. Bogaturov System approach and evolution of international relations in the twentieth century / by A. D. Bogaturov, N.. Kosolapov, M. A. Khrustalev// essays on the theory and methodology of political analysis of international relations. M.: NOFMA, 2002

[4] K. Waltz Theory of International Politics K. Waltz. McGraw-Hill Humanities, 1979.

[5] Anatoly Torkunov. A. Modern international relations // M.: "Russian political encyclopedia" (ROSSPEN), 1999 / Library Gumer – Science. Online: http://www.gumer.info/bibliotek_Buks/Polit/tork/02.php

[6] Lebedeva M. M. Political system of the world and new participants of international relations. // Contemporary international relations and world politics. Resp. edited by A. Torkunov; MGIMO(U) MFA Russia. - M.: Education. 2004

[7] K. Waltz Theory of International Politics K. Waltz. McGraw-Hill Humanities, 1979, p.12

[8] Buzan, B. Levels of analysis in international relations // International relations: sociological approaches. / B. Buzan, M., 1998, p. 7

[9] Helmut K. Anheier. Nonprofit Organizations. Theory, management, policy. Routledge: London and New York. 2005, p.10

[10] Lebedeva M. M. Political system of the world and new participants of international relations. // Contemporary international relations and world politics. Resp. edited by A. Torkunov; MGIMO(U) MFA Russia. - M.: Education. 2004, p. 175.

[11] the Latter, apparently, has a practical inexhaustible supply of versatilely.

[12] Lebedeva M. M. Political system of the world and new participants of international relations. // Contemporary international relations and world politics. Resp. edited by A. Torkunov; MGIMO(U) MFA Russia. - M.: Education. 2004, p. 176.

[13] this is discussed further in Akop Gabrielyan. Regional micro infarctions: A global system on the threshold of change. // Russiadirect. Opinion. Online at: http://www.russia-direct.org/opinion/regional-micro-infarctions-global-system-threshold-change

[14] Center for Global Development. Global Demographic Trends. Demographics and Development in the 21st Century . Online at: https://www.cgdev.org/page/global-demographic-trends

[15] United Nations Population Fund. World Population trends. Online at: http://www.unfpa.org/world-population-trends

[16] PewResearch Center. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050. Online at: http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/

[17] Worldometers. Russia Population (live). Online at: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/russia-population/

[18] A. V. Shestopal. "Soft power" of Russia in Eurasia. // XIX Shishkin reading. p. 219

 

Hakob Gabrielyan


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