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Oil ends, ends and "the Great game"
Material posted: -Publication date: 30-03-2011

On the tapes, the world media reported a very intriguing message. Its essence is that the EU intends in the next 20 years to reduce the number of cities used in gasoline and diesel vehicles, and by 2050 not to ban them. So, in the press reappeared timestamp – 2050. Somewhat earlier, in October 2010, Prime Minister of Denmark Lars Rasmussen in his speech before the Parliament stated that by 2050, the country may finally cease to be dependent on such energy sources as coal, gas and oil. They will be replaced by biomass and wind power.

In June 2009, some media reported that a number of European companies (including 20 of the largest German firms) expect in the coming years to build in the Sahara, "sun city" – the world's largest system of solar power plants, which will cost 400 billion euros. The project, which received the name of Desertec, it is planned to put the system of reflective mirrors to direct sunlight on a special tower. Within them under the influence of heat the water will turn into steam that will spin turbines.

The received electricity was scheduled to be transported to Europe via a system of underwater cables. It is assumed that the Desertec project should enable Europe to more than 15 % of the power needed. It was noted that the project will be implemented in about 30-40 years, i.e., again in the area of 2050

A few smaller project (its cost around 36 billion pounds) of formation of the system of solar panels in the Sahara to meet the needs of Europe in clean energy was discussed in the summer of 2008, the Solar battery needs to occupy an area comparable to the area of Wales in the UK. The capacity of the new solar power plant will be about 100 gigawatts. It was planned to implement also in the area 2040-2050 by the Way, an active supporter of the project is the President of France Nicolas Sarkozy.

In December 2010, became known some details of the program of development of military-air forces (air force), the United States, according to which by 2016 all the military helicopters should go to biofuels. In the same period, the media reported that the American company Pratt&Whitney tested the aircraft engine that runs on biofuel. Engine F100-PW-220 is designed for use on US air force aircraft.

And what in Russia? In our country the theme of imminent exhaustion of hydrocarbons has again become topical also in 2008, when the Deputy Minister of natural resources Minister Alexei Varlamov said that developed on the territory of the Russian Federation deposits of fuel and energy resources may be exhausted in 10-15 years. He stressed that after only a few years we are facing is to find yourself on the verge of exhaustion of the mineral resource base.

It was also announced that the uranium reserves that exist today, will last until 2017, oil – up to 2022, while gas and coal to 2025, This estimate coincides with the opinion of the rector of the St. Petersburg mining Institute (technical University), Professor Vladimir Litvinenko, which he expressed also in 2008, the Expert believes that the security of Russia's oil reserves, extraction of which is cost-effective, can be up to 10 years for gas – 20 years. If you rely on these numbers, we will end in a couple of decades earlier than hoped to reach Europe.

These facts allow us to assume that by the end of the first decade of the XXI century the world elite quite clearly was aware of the problem of the future of modern civilization in the conditions of the end of profitable hydrocarbon reserves. In conditions when oil and gas run out, and the real breakthrough technologies that can replace them, and not created, the only alternative is electricity, and produced from "clean" stations: water, solar, wind and tidal. Well, the army in the new conditions will have to use the biofuel.

For Europe (particularly for France, a significant part of the energy which falls on the plant), in fact, the only territory which can be implemented cost-effective projects to create solar power plants, is North Africa.

Perhaps not coincidentally, in 2008 on the initiative of President Sarkozy was established Mediterranean Union, which includes countries bathed by the Mediterranean sea. Among North African countries to include Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, i.e., precisely those countries that were dominated by "national" uprisings in winter 2011

Libya, until recently, remained an observer in this Union, because Muammar Gaddafi refused to attend the organizing summit of the Union, calling the new organization a conspiracy to undermine the unity of Arab and African countries. History shows that Gaddafi then became more than ever the rights of a "conspiracy" really worked.

Another interesting trend that emerged this winter, is observed in China. In early February, the information on the tape of a number of world agencies have reported that China has built a strategic reserve of rare earth metals. It was also reported that China began to stockpile strategic reserves of rare earth metals to solidify its dominance in the global market for these elements, necessary for the production of high-tech products.

Why now China has intensified: built storage, tightened export conditions? Perhaps one of the key reasons for the revitalization of China – electric cars. The production of this type of transport without the use of rare earth metals to date, it is impossible to imagine. With advanced economies, the same Japan, Israel, European countries annually invest billions of dollars in support of electromobility.

In this regard, holding the export of rare earth resources, China can serve two purposes. First, to slow down the development of the production of electric cars in Western countries – in order to win some time and to "tighten" its own production of cars. Secondly, China recently made large purchases of world famous automobile brands such as Volvo, Hummer, Saab.

The value of transactions of billions dollars, i.e. the Chinese continue to rely on traditional automobile industry (production of vehicles with internal combustion engine – ice). And in this regard the rapid development of electric vehicles and hybrids in the West is very unfortunate, as this could significantly affect the profitability of Chinese investments.

In order not to feel cheated (when Western countries "got rid of" the Chinese obsolete technology – the production of cars with internal combustion engines and began actively developing new electric cars), in China it could go on the steps, indirectly hindering the development of new technologies in the production of electric vehicles and associated infrastructure.

Appreciating the above facts, it is possible to offer a version according to which many of the most important events of recent years – and the global financial crisis and the Great Arab revolution, and some other less significant events – there are links in the Big game, which began with the involvement of oil in the industrial life of modern civilization, and enters into a phase that is directly linked to its finale by the exhaustion of recoverable oil reserves. And ends up not only oil but also natural gas, and coal.

As predicted by many experts, the years preceding the final cessation of commercial production of hydrocarbons, overcrowded violent events that in one way or another related to the fight for the last drop of oil. Oil is the life blood of civilization, and this civilization, this blood is almost gone.

What awaits humanity in a few decades when the oil and gas pipelines empty? Will the civilization to prepare? Perhaps these issues are now increasingly moving from fiction into the category of the realities of life.

Processes to modernize the economy, reduce its dependence on hydrocarbons, initiated by the Russian leadership must give hope for our country. That's just in time?

Tags: Russia , USA , Europe , crisis , China , threat

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