In the Strategic forecast of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2035 sets out four scenarios for the development of the global situation. Namely: the first one is the transition to a polycentric world order. The second is a continuation of U.S. attempts to maintain its dominance. Third - the formation of a bipolar model of the world. And finally, the fourth scenario is the strengthening of regionalization.
It is important to understand that the objective geopolitical reality is much more complex than any abstract schema. No forecast can not be realized 100 percent, so we can talk rather about the domination of certain trends in the modern world. So, in the modern world, of course, there are tendencies of formation of a polycentric architecture.
We are talking about the emergence of new regional and global centers of economic and political influence, whose share in world trade and the international political coordinates has been growing steadily.
The role of leading world powers today are claimed by China, while India, Brazil and South Africa has firmly established itself as leaders in their regions
In particular, the role of a leading world power today claimed by China, and countries such as India, Brazil and South Africa, has firmly established itself as leaders in their regions. Without considering the opinion of the listed players today, it is impossible to effectively solve global problems.
At the same time gradually eroding the position of traditional centers of power - primarily in the West. Although the most influential economic centers of the world remain the US, EU and Japan, their prospects slowly decrease the unfavorable demographic situation and the exhaustion of opportunities for intensive economic growth.
The ongoing weight loss "big seven" against the background of increasing the role and authority of the "group of twenty" is also a consequence of these processes.
USA: perspectives for the conservation of global hegemony
It is obvious that the emergence of new global and regional centers of power could not hold the traditional powers - primarily the United States and led them the so-called collective West.
In the 1990-ies, the Americans believed that Russia was finally written off from the accounts, and China, for all its success in the economic sphere will not be able to claim the status of a world power of first magnitude. This created the illusion that the world has forever established liberal order underpinned by American hegemony.
However, by the end of 2010-ies Russia was able to rapidly recover its capacity and regain their lost influence on the world stage. China, for its part, began to confidently challenge the USA's status as a global economic leader. Today, the country already generates a larger GDP (at purchasing power parity) than the US. The role of locomotives of the world economy began to claim other countries, primarily India, which more clearly expresses their political ambitions. In these circumstances, for the White house, it became apparent that his geopolitical strategy requires serious adjustments.
The strategy of containment of Russia and China
In December 2017 D. trump approved a new national security Strategy of the United States. It openly declared that Moscow and Beijing to challenge American power, influence and interests, trying to undermine the security and well-being of America. It is emphasized that the two countries intend to "limit the freedom and justice in the economy, increase military potential, and control information and data for the oppression of their societies and expand its influence." In this regard, the priority areas of containment of Russia and China was divided into three main areas - military, political, economic, and information and communication.
On this basis, in order to identify the main tasks of ensuring national security of the Russian Federation us on a regular basis, estimated and projected situation in each of these areas.
Political and military security of Russia, as, however, and the whole world today is marked by increased risk and decreasing predictability associated with the beginning of the collapse of the current architecture of strategic stability and the system of arms control by unilateral actions of the US and their desire to get rid of the international legal framework limiting their military capabilities.
In fact, the US is trying to replace the existing international legal system, a kind of alternative "procedure, based on the rules"
In this respect, the example of the Treaty on intermediate and shorter-range missiles. Start the process of its dismantling, the Americans predictably tried to shift the blame on Moscow. What exactly the fault is, the United States decided not to explain. Thus literally within a matter of weeks after the termination of the Agreement, the American side has conducted tests of medium-range missiles, indicating that Washington was prepared to withdraw from the agreement in advance.
In line with the collapse of the Treaty can be put on the US withdrawal in 2002 from the ABM Treaty, Washington's unwillingness to ratify the Treaty on comprehensive ban of nuclear tests and to work on the extension of the Treaty on further reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms, as well as recent White house statement on the preparations for the withdrawal from the Treaty on open skies. All of this negatively affects the predictability of the military-strategic situation, including lowering the threshold of use of nuclear weapons and, accordingly, the multiples increases the risks for all mankind.
Of course, calling Russia a threat to the United States in the military sphere, in the White house prefer to forget about the fact that the us military budget, which in 2019 amounted to about 716 billion dollars, more than 15 times higher than the Russian.
The economic sphere
In the global economy also poses serious challenges that directly threaten the welfare of Russia and its citizens. It is primarily about the attempts of obtaining the US a unilateral advantage in world trade, but not at the expense of transparent competition, and due to the imposition of sanctions, the outbreak of trade wars, the extraterritorial application of its own laws, illegal exploitation of the resources of sovereign States.
More broadly, we are witnessing a massive restructuring of the world economy. The driving force of this process is the change in the technological Foundation of development, particularly the emergence of new technologies in industry and energy, information, bio and nanotechnology, robotics, relocation of the productive forces, the changing demographic characteristics.
The transformation of the world economic order covers the traditional markets of goods, capital, technologies and workforce, as well as the system of national governance. Increasing importance of human capital as a factor of advancing national economic development. The effective mainstreaming of the Russian economy in these processes is an important task in the sphere of ensuring national security in the long term.
War virtual and real
In the field of information and communication technologies also have serious risks. In this sector there is often a disregard for the sovereign rights of States to develop their own technological base for critical information infrastructure, including under the slogan of building digital capacity in developing countries, and management of the national segment of the global Internet. In the interests of Western intelligence services is the introduction and use of hidden malware and software vulnerabilities in it products.
In respect of the CIS and CSTO, the West has consistently carried out a policy aimed at the destruction of the unified humanitarian space
A special danger exists in the West is taken on the use of information and communication technologies for military-political purposes, for the implementation of hostile actions aimed at undermining the sovereignty of individual States.
This possibility is in particular provided in the national cyber security Strategy of the United States, proclaiming the principle of "maintaining peace by force", that is, the willingness to use all available means of warfare in response to computer attacks against the information infrastructure of the United States. While the Americans had already repeatedly let know that "perpetrators" of these attacks, they will be assigned in random order.
In General, it becomes apparent that Washington intends to use its technological leadership to maintain strategic dominance in the information space by means of the actual policy of imposing its conditions, States, lagging behind in digital development. Experts call this practice "informational neo-colonialism". To this end, the Americans actively oppose the consolidation of the international legal norms of the provisions on the use of information and communication technologies for exclusively peaceful purposes and the prevention of conflicts in the information field.
Terrorism and the technology of controlled chaos
Many of these approaches and strategies that today Washington is trying to promote on a global scale, has previously been adopted in individual regions, primarily in the middle East, in fact, turned into a testing ground of American geopolitics. There was first widely applied and perfected the technology of "controlled chaos" and "hybrid war."
The most striking example of their application are the operation to eliminate the regimes of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Gaddafi in Libya, the attempted overthrow of Assad in Syria and the "Arab spring". These actions led to an unprecedented growth of international terrorism and Islamic extremism.
The fight against terrorism has used the United States and their allies to promote their own interests and priorities. So, we see how the Americans countries impose his concept of countering violent extremism, which not only ignored the agreed UN legal framework against terrorism, but allows for interference in the internal Affairs of sovereign States under the pretext of support to civil society in the face of authoritarian regimes, which are supposedly the root cause of the spread of radical sentiments. Under the slogan of combating the spread of terrorist activity the US and several other States are increasing their military presence in various regions of the world.
Threats in the CIS and the CSTO
In respect of the CIS and CSTO, the West is consistently a policy aimed at the destruction of a common humanitarian space and further separation of peoples. Nurtured nationalism and neo-Nazism and overt Russophobia, discriminated against Russian language, distorted and denigrated common history of the CIS countries.
Of particular concern is the activity of the Pentagon on the creation of worldwide, primarily in the CIS countries, the biological laboratories in which studies infectious diseases and is able to create biological weapons. In this regard, increasing the need for close coordination with our partners, including through the conclusion of bilateral agreements on Biosafety.
All these factors lead to a significant increase of conflict potential in the world. In fact, the US is trying to replace the existing international legal system, a kind of alternative "procedure, based on the rules."
Assessing such actions, it is important to note that the international legal architecture was built by the efforts of the world community over the past decades, and embodies the collective experience of all mankind, including the tragedy of two world wars. The role of Supreme arbiter in international Affairs aspect of it is the UN and its Security Council, without whose sanction any use of military force, economic or political pressure is illegal. Under international law, which provides for the equality of all sovereign States, it is impossible to imagine dividing the world into "developed" and "backward" countries into "pleasing" and "displeasing" ("rogue States"), and terrorists into "good" and "bad".
The key task of the international legal system is to make the world a more safe, predictable and stable. At the same time, in the framework of one does not negate the concept of national interests and does not limit the sovereign States in their implementation - most importantly, that it does not prejudice the interests of other sovereign players.
In turn, the doctrine of "order based on rules", in contrast, declares the Supreme arbiter in world Affairs Washington, who listens to the UN decisions only when they are conformable to his own will. The outbreak of military interventions, the imposition of sanctions against uncooperative States, interference in their internal Affairs - all this is declared to be a prerogative of the White house.
The right to safety
In these conditions the countries of the world are becoming more aware that these threats can be found only through a collective response. In recent years, recorded an increasing interest of sovereign States in all regions of the world to create both a regional and global scale of the modern system of stability based on the principle of equal and indivisible security - as opposed to defending the idea of security as the "exclusive" benefits for those States that are willing to play by the rules of Washington.
Among traditional partners and the most loyal American allies in the Euro-Atlantic region is also a growing understanding that the mindless following in the footsteps of Washington can have devastating consequences. The above mentioned example with the collapse of the INF Treaty with the Americans made it clear to the Europeans that for the realization of their private priorities the White house is easily ready to sacrifice the security of its allies.
The protection of Russia from the hybrid and other threats in the medium term
According to our estimates, priority should focus on maintaining and strengthening the constitutional system, sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity of Russia in the conditions of use against our country the hybrid methods.
It is important to ensure the implementation of existing and creation of additional competitive advantages of the Russian economy, further strengthening of the economic position of our country in the world, the transition to a sustainable long-term socio-economic development.
High relevance saves the task of strengthening Russia's defense capability, including the maintenance of nuclear deterrence at the level necessary to ensure national security.
No less important is the conduct of a pragmatic and multi-vector foreign policy, including the deepening equal partnership with other players and the development of interstate unions - EAEC, CSTO, SCO, BRICS.
Russia will also work to strengthen the current international legal system, global and regional architecture of strategic stability, the development of collective security mechanisms with the leading role of the UN as Supreme arbiter of inter-state relations.
Among the key priorities of our country in the sphere of security - to further strengthen the uncompromising struggle against the global terrorist threat not only inside Russia and around its borders, but also on the distant frontiers.
In addition, national interests and the security of the state will be upheld and protected in the information and communication space.
Successful work in these areas is key to sustainable socio-economic development of Russia, increase of level of life of Russian citizens, to preserve and increase the unique cultural and spiritual way of life and historical heritage of our country.
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