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The Olympics in modern history to President Nursultan Nazarbayev
Material posted: Publication date: 21-11-2017
What is the future of Russian-Kazakh relations? Can I ask and so: what is the future of Kazakhstan? In this form I ask myself this question many experts. Get the answer and... hold on to it: Kazakhstan — "ally". Which, however, systematically probes the red line beyond which begins the camp of the enemy, but does not enter it. Or is already?

The President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev has shown himself a brilliant politician, by accepting a slight movement to move the legs very red line. During the years of independence the Russian population has halved and continues to decline, both in percentage and in absolute numbers. And in those areas where, despite tricks with the redrawing of administrative borders, the Russian population still accounts for a significant portion or even the majority, it is almost excluded from political and public life, government and law enforcement. Understand what it turns in even on domestic issues and conflicts under the domination of family-clan relations.

Last November 9 meeting of the presidents of Russia and Kazakhstan on the sidelines of the XIV interregional cooperation Forum in Chelyabinsk mass media were accompanied by headlines like "Russia and Kazakhstan: reaching a new level of economic cooperation". Yes, the format of the event (interregional) limited, but specific listing of the topics addressed leaves a painful impression. So, the President of Kazakhstan in his speech has proposed to Russian President Vladimir Putin "to create a single electronic labour exchange", to form a "common market for medicines and medical devices", to promote the formation of research consortia, for example, in the energy sector. And it offers to States members of the Union — "Customs Union"!

Main achievement: turnover growth this year. Indeed, after a strong fall in the trade volume in 2016, this has seen a significant rise. But the same trends can be observed in trade with China, although on the allied relations between Moscow and Beijing no one speaks.

Not ashamed the President of Kazakhstan in a speech at the forum, which became a kind of summit between the two leaders, to offer "collaborative competition among Russian and Kazakh students in mathematics, chemistry, physics and biology." That is, when "2×2" and "H₂O" in our schools while overall, about a single view of history, at least universal, or world geography, does not have to speak.

But "the international Turkic Academy" with the headquarters in Astana joint efforts of the Turkish, Azerbaijani, Turkmen, Kazakh and Kyrgyz historians (comments from Uzbekistan, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chuvashia, and Yakutia were accepted with gratitude) has developed a common Turkic history textbook for the 8th grade (from ancient times to the XV century). Work has begun on the second part (XXI century). Content: the key role of the Turkic tribes and peoples in the history of Asia, Europe, North Africa and seems to be a little America. Ideological, not scientific, focus benefits not hides. As stated by one of its authors, the purpose of the "tutorial" is to the young people of the Turkic countries also loved Shah Ismail Sefevi, the Emir Tamerlane, and Sultan of Suleiman the Magnificent "in the West like Napoleon, Bismarck, Washington."

Putin proposal on school Olympiads did not comment, but in General terms, spoke about the necessary steps "to further develop Russian-Kazakh cooperation in all areas" and went to Vietnam for the APEC summit. The most characteristic item: "new level of cooperation" were only in the anniversary Declaration on the 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and Kazakhstan (October 22, 1992).

Yes, Kazakhstan is participating in the joint integration processes, but it is so inconsistent and dosed that the use of the word "ally" in quotation marks seems more appropriate. In 2006, us Senator Richard Lugar in the heat protect "vital U.S. interests" in the region of the Caspian sea, said the possibility of Kazakhstan's accession to NATO in the fairly near future (this is the question of "democratic standards" of the block).

Then, many took the statement Lugar's almost like a joke. Meanwhile, since 2003 on the territory of Kazakhstan there are regular international peacekeeping exercise "Steppe eagle" under the leadership of the United States, a country whose "peacekeeping" in circumvention of the UN security Council resolutions and without invitation of the governments turned the death of hundreds of thousands of people only in the last 15 years, only in the middle East. The latest exercise was completed in July of this year on the range "Or" near Alma-ATA. They involved the US military, other NATO countries and some CIS countries. Time of exercise — three months — indicates their nature, far beyond the standard coordination of actions of peacekeeping units. These "exercises" is a complete educational training programmes our "ally" according to NATO standards. Waiting for suitable conditions to break with Russia?

With persistence, worthy the best application, Nazarbayev from year to year is an initiative to develop a universal Declaration of nuclear-free world. The President of Kazakhstan at different levels explained that Russia's nuclear weapons is the most reliable tool deter aggression by a potential enemy. But in 2017, "ally" once again made essentially anti-Russian initiative (accidentally activity of Nursultan Nazarbayev increases on the eve of the campaigns for the nomination of candidates for the Nobel peace prize). "Simplicity is worse than theft", but it's hard to believe that in our case it is not intentional.

Another initiative of the Kazakh leader, which he first voiced in 2014 — an appeal to the leaders of Ukraine and Russia "to meet personally, sit down at the negotiating table to find a compromise, stop all this Orgy". Long retreat down the pace of the presentation, but here it is absolutely necessary.

In August 2016 in response to the accusation of the Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Hope Savchenko in the fact that at the end of August 2014, when in Ilovaisk killed soldiers, the government staged a parade in Kiev, Poroshenko has acknowledged that almost six months the Donbass resisted on their own, that there was a civil war. That is the cause of the conflict — Kiev's punitive operation against its own people. "We have a tragedy happened not because we held the parade, but because the aggressor has invaded our land ... armed aggression of the Russian Federation, which was started then," hammered a stake into the throat of Ukrainian propaganda, the head of Ukraine (the burden of proof of the invasion on 24 August, armed forces reserve author remarks).

Whatever may be said Igor Strelkov, the war in the Donbass began not it in Slavyansk, 12 APR 2014 with its 52 fighters (where to him for three months the fighting was joined by two thousand soldiers, most were local residents). "The gun from the wall" just after the coup in Kiev on February 22 removed Renat Akhmetov. Anticipating the attempts of repartition of the property by the oligarchs of the new government, he, like other oligarchs, the authorities continue to say so, "was related" to the creation of parallel authorities and armed groups (from 1 March). On the independence of Donbass, it was not, Akhmetov was only trying to strengthen their bargaining position. And had the coup a desire to negotiate, strelkov would be handed over to Kiev on a silver platter still on the way to Slavyansk. Or quickly would have blocked his airway.

But something happened that the old rules did not fit. "The new government" wanted it all, and revealing that another nepovadno was to resist the "revolution of dignity". As he said in 1991, another Democrat, Georgian, Jaba Ioseliani: "Democracy is to you not lobio to eat. Who is against democracy, personally, shoot!". The situation is out of control.

If in August 2014, Russia intervened in the war, precisely in order to stop "all this Orgy" and force the Kiev authorities to negotiate with the citizens of the country that have not accepted the coup. International law is a norm that UN members have pledged to abide by, and the members of the UN security Council to protect. After the "humanitarian bombing" of Serbia in 1999, intervention in internal conflicts of sovereign States without the approval of the UN security Council became the new international law (or is it simply ceased to exist), because the law, by definition, is the norms common to all.

That said, it is unclear Nazarbayev or his advisors? But the "wise elder" offers "rambunctious youths" to sit, to drink tea with Turkish delight and make up. Actually offers Russia to recognize the initiator of the conflict in a peaceful and prosperous Ukraine. This "naivety" it would be possible to forgive anyone, but not the leader, build yourself a mono-ethnic state. In fact, repeating the "Ukrainian way". This is the second reason we allowed ourselves a long digression about Ukraine.

This whole "international activity" Nazarbayev develops on the background of the rapid radicalization of the population, especially the poor. For those who are watching events in Syria and Iraq, came as a shock a number of people from Kazakhstan fighting in the ranks of the IG ("Islamic state", ISIL, a terrorist group banned in Russia) and other terrorist groups. But for those who monitored the events in post-Soviet Kazakhstan, amazing is not enough. From the first years of independence, the departure of Russian was accompanied by a reverse flow of so — called "oralmans" ("returning" of the Kazakhs).

According to the official version, enshrined in the title of these immigrants, we are talking about the Kazakhs fled Kazakhstan in 1920 — 30-ies, in the years of collectivization and famine, mostly migrated to China. But this version is contrary to the figures, in which the majority of repatriates — immigrants from other former Soviet republics: Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and countries where Kazakhs settled long before the revolution. The reason for the substitution is obvious: the purpose of the "return" is the change in the demographic situation in the country in favor of the "titular (indigenous not to call it that) of the ethnic group". Characteristically, migrants were directed mainly to Northern Kazakhstan.

Only officially, according to the program of state support (the"Nurly cache" — "Movement of light") of Kazakhstan adopted 958 thousand repatriates. According to the UN, published in January last year, the country's population of 3 million 546 thousand migrants (of the UN — inhabitants born outside the country). Take into account that Kazakhstan is primarily left are the Russian, Slavic, Russian-speaking, who were born in Russia and Ukraine and has maintained ties with the homeland. And also that the settlers to the Virgin lands of the 1950s and 1960s years (1930 — 1940-ies of birth) by 2016, in large measure, decline of natural causes. Thus, the figure of 2 million repatriates does not seem excessive. It confirms and growth dynamics of the ethnic Kazakh population, exceeding natural increase plus official data on migration.

Already oralmans, who arrived from the former Soviet republics, as residents of predominantly rural areas were more religious than the native Kazakhs. More religious Kazakhs living in China, the vast majority in East Turkestan (Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous region). Hundreds of thousands of repatriates arrived from Mongolia, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan.

The situation was aggravated by the fact that the historical homeland had not moved the most successful and wealthy Kazakhs. Also made itself felt familiar to Europeans "the problem with the second generation" of migrants and their children who find it difficult to compete with local that breeds anger and radicalism care. A breeding ground of extremist ideology have become the places of deprivation of liberty. As complained a senior official of the penitentiary system of Kazakhstan: "For six months, one Wahhabi recruits of Pokolenie, a year later the whole colony — the Wahhabis". By the way, this problem manifested itself in a Russian prison and ITU, but here it managed to stop.

They, the young repatriates, but not only, often with their families, went to the middle East. Hundreds have already returned to Kazakhstan. While exposed and condemned only a few people with the time — 5-6 years "continue universities" or "teaching experience" and with good views of the UDO. Others went to Afghanistan and also hope to return home when the time comes. They also recruited the backbone of the terrorist groups known for attacks in Kazakhstan. The last major is in June 2016 in Aktobe (Aktobe). Victims: 7 military and civilian, as well as the 18 terrorists.

Add to this the wide-open doors to religious and just "cultural-educational" programs of Turkish, Saudi, Qatari and other international foundations, firmly established in Kazakhstan. Appreciative audience they are provided in full: stratification grows particularly acute and noticeable on the background of oil and gas revenues in a relatively small population of the country.

Boy-Kazakh, shot on camera of a prisoner Syrian soldier is the price of building an ethnic state and flirting with religious foundations "of the middle East Soros".

The threat that Kazakhstan in case of change of power will start the creation of parallel authorities and armed groups, in our opinion, higher than it was in Ukraine. This is the third Ukrainian lesson. And it will be the Kazakh elite or a new power, striving for power. Paradox: the Russian population, in General, politically inert, but loyal to the regime as a lesser evil, in any case, "diluted", and eased the contradictions between the political forces of the "titular" population. You could even say that he sent them to a peaceful course, because supported or would be willing to support those who demonstrate moderate goal. But through the efforts of the regime of the Russian population — a "safety cushion" of the authorities sharply reduced and continues to decline.

No wonder, a few years ago a possible trigger for future conflict called Western Kazakhstan, where almost gone Russian (outside of oral and several cities Aktobe region). At the same time, the Western region is extremely dissatisfied with the share of oil revenues, which they are. Surprisingly, the authorities had the sense here, especially in Aktau (formerly Shevchenko) and in nearby Zhanaozen (New Uzen) to send a significant number of repatriates. Obviously, for the substitution of Russians (especially those from the North Caucasus republics: Dagestan and others), who worked in the oil industry and crafts left EN masse after the riots in 1989.

And in Zhanaozen in December 2011 was the largest strike of oil workers, has "indigenous" ended the execution of 15 of the strikers. The authorities again excelled, while stating that "people being fed" and that the strike was organised by "religious extremists" (which only further boosted the credibility of these groups). At the same time, among the leaders of the protest movement in Mangistau (Mangyshlak region) there were few ethnic Russians, including women.

Today, all the more problematic it becomes and the South of Kazakhstan, also almost lost the Russian population with the exception of Alma-ATA. 10 years ago, with the government's relocation to Astana (Tselinograd), it seemed that Almaty will remain forever "the second capital". Those hopes quickly evaporated: the existing political model of the "elite, estimates and budgets" massively went to the North. "Respectable people" of middle and lower level, for various reasons, firmly tied to the South, also feel deprived. Formed the elite, with their very special interests: "ore", "agricultural", and not Russian, and North.

Here on this background "the story of the century" gets the job Nazarbayev to transfer the Kazakh alphabet from Cyrillic to Latin. Let's face it, the Cyrillic alphabet created for the Slavic language, which had half a dozen pairs of consonants, the opposition of the hardness — softness. To understand how difficult the task was in front of Cyril (Methodius continued the work of his brother), check out the crazy spelling of the Irish language, where there was the same problem. Cyril has found a brilliant solution, instead of typing a dozen extra consonants a few vowels that soften preceding consonant and the final consonant softens to "b".

In the Turkic languages of all these problems, and to them Cyrillic and Latin are essentially the same. Of course, Nazarbayev in phonological subtleties did not penetrate. In the real price of their solutions too. He had long wanted to make this symbolic step, well, you know: "farewell, unwashed Russia" and all that. But life is not infinite. The father of the nation, leaving her with the Cyrillic alphabet, like as not the father. Many former African colonies, too, this problem suffered. For example, the Somalis long project of the alphabet were chosen. Stayed in the Latin alphabet. Happy now.

The funny thing is that the former Soviet Republic, which passed into the Latin alphabet since 1991, has managed not only to repeat the mistakes of his Latin 1920-ies, but also added new ones.

Each nation has its own truth. For Kazakhs it is their Turkic Khaganate born in their steppes and a half thousand years ago. This is another state — the heir of the ulus of Jochi and Jagata — political Union of the three zhuzes, which defended its independence for 300 years after the fall of Kazan and Astrakhan in the West and Mongolia in the East. Who how not they, have the right to wear the name "Cossack" is "free"? (To distinguish them from he that borrowed his own is the name of Russian Cossacks, in the 1930s, was made an ingenious decision — to write the name of the Kazakhs with the letter "x" is only vaguely reminiscent of a guttural /K/). For Kazakhs, what is happening in Kazakhstan is a logical and fair dealing with the aftermath of colonialism.

In Russian truth. This Russian city with 300-400 years of history, renamed, officially or unofficially, at the stage of "schooling". This, as mentioned, the exclusion of representatives of "non-titular" Nations in the margins of the political and public life. This is a complete non-interference of Russia, at least officially, in Russian problems of people of Kazakhstan.

Even if we start from the presumption of good faith to President Nursultan Nazarbayev and to agree that today's situation of Russian in Kazakhstan is the maximum that he was able to defend in the fight for the rights of "every citizen" against the "destructive forces", then what's next? For Nazarbayev, there is no monolithic Corporation like-minded friends. He was 77, but there's nobody that could be included in the hypothetical circle "the heirs". What are the vicissitudes of history with the sons-in-law and other relatives. There is only situational alliances, the shifting groups and combinations of interest.

May God give good health to Nursultan Nazarbayev, but in the day these groups and the unions have to make a rush to power. Win the most decisive, organized, able to specify the mass clear goal and a clear enemy. It is possible the unthinkable alliances. For example, oligarchs, and unlearned in the London crystal white-collar workers with those who do not recognise collars as clothing of the servants of Shaytan. Moreover, such unions are the real strength of any insurgency (or revolution — if successful). Fourth Ukrainian lesson?

And imagine that the hour "X" will be associated not with age Nazarbayev and the risks involved and the fact that even when zdravstvuyet Nursultan Nazarbayev will happen next and the same rapid, as in Iraq, the offensive in Afghanistan through its reconciliation and Union with the Taliban. This is what the US pushing the Taliban with their crazy policies. Or reasonable, in a sense, deliberate. A big headache at the same time Russia, China, Iran and to some extent Turkey to think hard. That is, the US will build up a second wave "of the escalating presence" exactly as long as ISIS and the Taliban are not United. And then "conscience" come from Afghanistan.

If I can stop the Islamists regimes in the Amu Darya? Modes, 25 years to "sell" yourself Russia, USA, China, Iran and Turkey who want to get everything without offering anything. "The way you do not have to protect /the name of the country/, and that if the Islamists will be, you also will be worse. I myself am on /title of the European resort/ old age will pass away" — I say, this motive is always read in the negotiations of the Central Asian "emirs" with Russia. It's time to end this practice.

It's time to learn something from the entrepreneur and the President of the United States Donald trumpwhich offers today Poland and Japan to pay for the deployment of American missiles. Which a few years ago they were offered for free, but one of these countries demanded the "add cache" and the other did not want to spoil relations with North Korea.

Between Russia and Afghanistan three borders on the Amu Darya, the southern border of the Eurasian economic Union and Russia-Kazakhstan. And all three in the military-strategic sense "leaky", that is, in fact, there are no boundaries, as if the water was standing 100 dams, but with a "hole". What a response will be given to the victory of the IG in the rear of the Northern neighbors of Afghanistan? And what is doubt? In the 1990s, when something eats the stock "Soviet reciprocity", the Mujahideen broke through the Tajikistan and the Alai valley in Kyrgyzstan and freely ride on jeep Turkmenistan, halfway to Mary.

A beautiful phrase wonderful movie gone people: "the East — business thin". Although the film itself shows that the East — it is cruel and bloody. Intervene if Russia or silently take the remaining four million compatriots? But the intervention in the chaos to predict the limits of necessary intervention (the promotion) is very difficult.

The thing is, as cynical as it may sound, not only in the protection of compatriots. Perhaps in some situations them it would be cheaper to make and equip. But there is another factor of concern.

Among the countries with the "crazy geography" is called a Chile, stretching almost 5,000 kilometers, or the Netherlands, one third of which lies below sea level, or land-locked Uzbekistan, all neighbors which have no outlet to the sea. Russia will put to shame all of them.

Russia is two continents: European Russia with the Urals a little less Australia and Siberia with the Far East — a half times more. They are connected by an isthmus width of less than hundreds of kilometers. Forest-steppe, Ishim town, one road and one railway. North of the swamps and the Arctic ocean. South — Kazakhstan. This is unacceptable.

There is such a stamp of political science: "Politics is the art of the possible". But "possible" is always on the surface. To implement it nice and easy. This does not have to be a politician, it is enough to be a mediocre functionary. A politician has to anticipate the challenges and to take responsibility for their preventive solution must have the art to do the impossible.

The output of federalization of Kazakhstan. Federalization not on the border areas, and through the creation of two equal regions "South" and "North" with the capital district "Astana, Tselinograd" between them. No forced resettlement of peoples in their regions. Full preservation of the existing scheme of economic relations and their gradual, long-term, the transformation in regional complexes. Yes, the southern region will be richer because it is almost the entire oil and gas complex of Kazakhstan, but not all of it is determined.

Ural Orsk from the mouth to the bend. From there to the Derzhavinsk on the Ishim river and its source. Further to Kurchatov (End) on the Irtysh and up on it and in the Narym range to the Chinese border. "Ural — Ishim — Irtysh". A clear border between the two Nations. The river, which will lie Russian city of Guryev, Uralsk, Tselinograd, Semipalatinsk, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakh city in front of them: Atyrau, Oral, Astana, Semey, Ust-Kamenogorsk. It is possible that Russia will take such a step as a step of territorial exchange, so that the border of the two States from Orsk to the mouth of the Ural went down the river.

This really a friendly and allied state — Federal Kazakhstan — Russia would protect from any threats and with all his might. Just because it would be wiser in all respects than its share.

I'm thinking about what proactive internal constitutional changes could hold a elite of Kazakhstan, if they are aware of what is happening and able to present a worst-case scenario. If you can imagine the Northern border of Kazakhstan, as, for example, "Baikonur — Balkhash". Which, if necessary, Russia could build much cheaper and more reliable.

Albert Hakobyan (Urumov)


Tags: Russia , Kazakhstan

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