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The failure of Tokyo from the Kuril Islands - fantasy
Material posted: Pankratenko Igor N.Publication date: 24-09-2016
The Japanese authorities do not intend to abandon claims to the southern Kuriles. What will the reaction of Moscow?

To begin with, that in itself the idea that Tokyo may abandon claims to the Kuril Islands – all together or some parts of them is a figment of the imagination, and imagination quite so unrestrained. In the Japanese version of these Islands are "illegally held territories" and must be returned. All. Point. I don't think the Japanese government, which has openly declared readiness to make concessions to Russia in this matter, will remain in power for more than a day.

In General, in my opinion, all this fuss around the Islands and the raising of the topic of relations between Moscow and Tokyo the peace Treaty had nothing in common with the realities of Russian-Japanese relations. The essence here is different – Russia desperately needs Japanese investment. With the solemnly declared "pivot to the East" frankly is not going well, so again began the argument that the dispute about the Islands is resolved (in the words of the Russian President "so that none of the parties did not feel the loser"), investments from Japan will flood the river, and the bilateral trade will soar to fifty billion. Dollars, of course.

A similar situation, let me remind you, was in "the Gorbachev period, the Soviet Union, under Yeltsin. That is, the primitive chain "talks on the Islands-the peace Treaty-Japanese investment continues to preserve its charm for a number of Russian politicians and experts. And at every opportunity they this chain begin to admire how wild natives beads.

The reality is that the trade turnover between our countries in 2013 is continuously decreasing. The total reduction in 2015 (compared to 2014) was 32%. Russian exports to the country of the Rising sun during this period decreased by 28% and imports of Japanese goods – by 39%.

And where are the Islands and a peace Treaty? 82% of Russian exports to Japan mineral fuels, oils and products of their distillation, bituminous substances. These products and the price drops, in addition to the Japanese have someone to buy them. The largest oil supplier to Japan – Saudi Arabia – increased sales by 5%, Iran over the past 10 months – 34%. That is – in the fall of the Russian-Japanese trade turnover quite objective reasons, few related to territorial disputes or the absence of a peace Treaty.

Whether Moscow is interesting in Tokyo as an economic partner – and without discussion of these issues would be done. Today, the volume of accumulated investments by Japanese companies in the Russian economy amounts to $ 2.7 billion and apparently this is the limit of interest of Japanese business in Russia, in Tokyo there are more interesting and attractive objects of investment.

As you can see the fate of the 4 Islands in the South Kuriles and Japan will try to regain the Islands?

Before us is a typical stalemate. Moscow island for many reasons can not give, Tokyo may not waive requirements to return them. Do not see this as something tragic, this situation two of the state once lived for 71 years. More concerned about other things. With the policy that Moscow holds in respect of Siberia and the Far East, it may be a situation where the de jure territory belongs to Russia, but de facto – it resources manage very different country. And this has to take the leadership of the Russian Federation far more than the decades, a continuing debate about the Kuril Islands.

Igor Pankratenko


Tags: assessment , Russia , Japan

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