It is highly likely that in the near future mankind expect of a devastating war for fresh water, energy resources, fertile land and areas with a comfortable climate. This is the conclusion of scientists-futurologists who by order of the Ministry of defense has prepared the report "weather report: 2012-2020" .
Outset: we are not talking about so-called climate wars, provoked by a deliberate intervention of military in nature. Although there is evidence that research in this direction with the 70-ies of the last century continues in the United States and has been actively pursued in the former Soviet Union. The forecast of the authors of this study by Peter Schwartz and Douglas Randall based on the analysis of the already started global climate change on the planet.
The relevance of this kind of research is understandable, if to take into account the nature of natural disasters in recent years, the explosive growth which has no analogues in the past. For example, over the past 15 years on all continents happened many earthquakes, how many over the previous century and a half. Two years ago, only one in Haiti killed about 300 thousand people. In September last year, heavy rains almost drowned Germany, where he was declared an emergency. About what is happening today is a natural disaster in Japan have nothing to say.
Further, probably, will be even worse. Future disasters, according to American scientists in the coming years, is able to completely destabilize the political situation on the whole continent. Schedule of threats, which are recommended to prepare even the Pentagon. Here is the schedule of future disasters, according to us scientists.
- Cataclysms will begin next winter. In 2012, the extreme cold forced many of the inhabitants of Scandinavia to migrate into Europe and Russia.
In 2015 in Europe the possible conflict over the distribution of water, food, energy.
In 2018 Russia will join the EU, improving the supply of European energy.
In 2020, will begin mass migration from Scandinavia, Holland, Germany, located South Italy, Spain, Greece. Conflicts over water and migration will be even greater.
- In 2022 will be a conflict of France and Germany over the Rhine river.
In 2025-2027 years will increase the probability of collapse of the EU, migration in the southern Mediterranean (North Africa, Israel, Turkey). By the year 2030 from Europe will go to 10% of the population.
In 2012 Japan to survive, can be dealt with aggression against its neighbors with the aim of conquest of the territories on the mainland.
- In 2015, between Tokyo and Moscow signed a strategic agreement for use of the energy resources of Siberia and Sakhalin.
In 2018 it is not excluded a military operation China against Kazakhstan with the aim to take control of passing through the territory of the country gas and oil pipelines.
In 2020, the war begins in South-East Asia, involving India, China, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and other countries.
- By 2025, the probability of civil war in China, which will provoke a series of border conflicts.
By 2030, the relationship between Japan and China escalates. The stumbling block will be the struggle for access to natural resources of Russia.
- In 2012, will increase the mass flow of refugees from the Caribbean Islands to the United States, Mexico and other countries of the Americas.
In 2015, the United States may be overwhelmed by the wave of migrants from Europe. Mostly the rich.
- In 2016 there is potential for conflict between the US and the EU over fisheries in the ocean.
- In 2020 would dramatically increase the price of oil in the Persian Gulf and the Caspian sea will be a serious armed conflict.
- In 2025 for this reason, the potential conflict, the U.S. Navy and China in the Persian Gulf.
Schwartz and Randall believe that the reason most of these troubles will be the change in the dynamics of major ocean currents. In particular, the Gulf stream. It will make the course more freshwater that accumulates in the Arctic by the melting polar ice. The result of the climate in Northern Europe becomes similar to that in Yakutia. Pampered Norwegians, Swedes, Finns, Danes and even the Germans would rush South, closer to the Mediterranean coast. But Italy and Spain not rubber. Here in old Europe everything goes wrong.
In the southern hemisphere – on the contrary, will only get hotter. This will cause water shortages, the onset of the desert, reducing the area suitable for agriculture lands. Particularly affected will be China, India, Pakistan. To retain power, their elite can start large-scale war in the region. However, even without the war a crowd of hungry people are doomed to seek refuge in the same emigration, destabilizing the situation in the more prosperous countries.
In a more or less favorable position, according to the authors of the report, will be the residents of the five or six major grain-producing areas of the world, among which included the US, Argentina and Russia.
In the end, all of these global horrors will be radically redrawn the political map of the world. By 2018, there will be a Union of Canada, USA, Mexico into one state for a consolidated protection of the North American continent from these external threats. One of the main objectives "of the Ministry of defense of North America" will be the prevention of uncontrolled migration from zones of the Caribbean and Europe.
Korea will finally become one. The creation of a new country will instantly give the Seoul nuclear weapons, and Pyongyang – new technology.
And what about Russia? The authors of the "weather report: 2012-2020" I believe that in a specified time frame high probability of inclusion of our country in a United Europe. That will help the Western neighbors to solve many of their problems at the expense of the vast Russian resources. Europeans will get access not only to the Russian energy carriers, but also to the vast new arable land and fresh water supplies.
Predictions American futurists interesting to compare with the data of another group of scientists commissioned by the UN conducted a similar study in 2007.
In this report, the most vulnerable because of the global environmental changes in the foreseeable future will be the African continent, southern Eurasia, and the Arctic. Specifically, it will look like.
The main problem here will be lack of drinking water and the rapid migration in search of a better life. First, by 2025, will worsen relations between the two countries, located on the banks of the Nile. And - up to open war.
African countries can start disputes over access to coastal areas and ports. Extremely strong social and ethnic tensions will cause internal migration from the countryside to the cities. According to the most sinister scenario, by 2020 the continent will be plunged into anarchy and will turn into a zone of intractable military conflict.
Severe chronic drought in the African continent threatens to burst uncontrolled migration in Europe. In response, European countries, especially on the Mediterranean coast, may be overwhelmed by the wave of nationalism, and they will unite under the banner of the project "Fortress Europe". To contain the wave of refugees would have enormous humanitarian financial injections in the throes of hunger in the country. As a result, the millions of poor will be in camps in the Sahara.
Persistent drought will threaten the Amazon. The Andean countries will face a double threat – the lack of potable water and political instability, hampering any long-term planning. Brazil will face an agricultural crisis, which could escalate into a war over the control of arable land.
Where the waters are abundant so it is here. That too will not bring anything good. Overpopulated Ganges Delta are threatened by cyclones and rising water levels. Flood In Bangladesh. Rivers of Pakistan, on the other hand will dry up. This factor will increase sectarian tensions in the region. The war of Pakistan with India is inevitable. The presence of the enemies ' nuclear weapons will only exacerbate apocalypticist forecast.
China will suffer as drought and hurricanes, and heavy rainfall. In its Northern areas, desertification would happen, and South, expect the constant floods and landslides. In the most disastrous scenario, by 2025 the coast of China will be devastated by the typhoons. The masses of refugees will focus on the South of the country, and the Chinese army, following the same pattern that the United States would be to prevent excessive influx, resorting to bloodshed.
Climate chaos threatens the Caribbean. Here to devastating cyclones and triggered their rapid migration and will add another tropical hurricanes that threaten including the oil industry.
Scientists foresee two variants of development of events. In the first scenario the US just close the southern border. The migrants will gather in the border cities, where cases of violence. In the second scenario, the sixth hurricane of the category will destroy Houston and its oil industry. In the end the US, trying to curb the rise in fuel prices, will be forced to sell off all the accumulated strategic oil reserves. Some States will not fail to exploit this weakness for profit will block oil pipelines. That, too, will lead to armed conflict over resources.
The Americans have seriously preparing for "climate wars". Experts in the Pentagon and American intelligence agencies predict that in the coming decade Washington may need to send military to different regions not for the overthrow of dictators and destroying alleged weapons of mass destruction and to deal with the consequences of natural disasters. The U.S. Department of defense now include the effects of global warming in long-term planning. So, the defense Ministry included a section on climate change in the quadrennial defense review prepared last year. Most vulnerable in this named the African countries South of the Sahara, the middle East, South and South-East Asia.
 Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall. An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security, October 2003
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