The opinions of experts, which, as applied to events in Turkey, I propose the scheme "is an external influence, internal basic conditions" - it is just a guess that came to mind on a whim. It is clear that these events control the military, in full agreement with the external initiators.
Politicians and experts of the West continue to claim that Turkey is a loyal and reliable partner of NATO, while the current government in Turkey, the regime became not only irritate and disturb, it became unbearable.
Turkey has become an important if not major factor in the crisis in NATO and continue to benefit from the NATO member, to promote initiatives completely unacceptable to the Euro-Atlantic community. Thus, Turkey has not gained any positions in Russia, China and the middle East.
A new foreign policy doctrine ended in a fiasco, which was reflected on the current economic, respectively, on the domestic political situation. There was a very convenient situation for the next revolution in the Islamic world, and these are very successfully used.
Now one thing is clear - when I started, then bring it to the end. Or, maybe, otherwise – did not begin to stop. Yes, Turkey is a strong state, but isn't Egypt, Syria or Libya were weak States? (And generally that means a strong state?).
Currently Erdogan is more isolated in society and loses the support of his supporters. It is quite possible that the regime will donate T. Erdogan for the sake of power, in a different, more compromised format. The main compromise is expected from Turkey in the sphere of external policy, not internal reviews.
Clearly seen that in the process of implementation involved all three plans the collapse of Turkey, which has been the key to the blackmail of the ruling elite: left, left-liberal and right-conservative nationalist projects. These projects are developed not today, but in the late 50-ies, and of course, there was intense confrontation.
All three projects were sent in time to prevent the growing influence of Communists and the Soviet Union. Now the situation has changed radically, but all three of the project remain relevant.
In certain circles they say about the special role the United States and Germany in the implementation of these projects. It looks a bit illiterate, as between Americans and Europeans formed a "division of labor" regarding such projects. But what these events have become to used to restrict the foreign policy ambitions of Turkey and the strengthening of external control over it, no doubt.
These goals are pursued not only the USA, but the leading States of Europe. The UK has already made some steps to develop a behavior plan of the Western community in case of real threat of the partition of Turkey. It is also clear that neither the U.S. nor Europe was in a state of confusion and were ready for the events.
Over Turkey threatened the creation of three States – Thracian-Aegean Turkish Republic, the Turkish Republic of Anatolia, the Confederation of the peoples of Eastern Anatolia. The boundaries of these States would be completely consistent with the placement of military bases and infrastructure of the U.S. and NATO.
In this situation Turkey will not save the old, traditional game on the strengthening of closer relations with Russia in this Eurasian demonstration of feelings in the West no one believes, doesn't believe Russia itself, which can act as a Savior of Syria, but not Turkey - there is no reason.
An important factor in maintaining the integrity of Turkey would be a military conflict in which she could participate or somehow be involved, in one way or another. For example, the second Karabakh war. Still Turkey had hoped for a modest military victories in Syria as part of NATO, but its partners in the Alliance, refusing such an operation, take into calculations and the possibility of Turkish game that, sooner or later, would become independent. To some extent, Syria saved the reluctance of Americans and Europeans to take Turkey to the middle East.
Now the situation is different, and like the Turks can untie his hands, nothing to lose. The situation is not enough promoted, but it's a matter of time.
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