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Preprime minister Kudrin
Material posted: Publication date: 13-02-2016
Russia is included into a full-fledged economic crisis, GDP of the country can fall in 2015 for 2–4% at price for barrel of oil 80 and 60 of dollars respectively. It was declared at a press conference in Moscow by the head of Committee of civil initiatives, the former Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Kudrin. Experts consider that disturbing forecasts of the ex-minister aren't least connected with ambitions on return to the government, but such scenario is now improbable.

Oil decrease not the main reason of a collapse of rouble

The most part of conference of Kudrin has been devoted a pitiable condition of the Russian economy and inevitable recession. Kudrin predicts: if the mid-annual price for oil in 2015 constitutes about $80 for barrel economy falling will constitute 2 %, at the price for oil of $60 of gross national product will give on 4 % and more. The forecast on inflation in 2015 - 12-15 %, import decrease - on 40 %.

However there are also consolatory moments. So, the rouble exchange rate is stabilised in the first quarter 2015 because of reducing of import and demand for currency, the former minister considers. Moreover, if the price for oil does not fall, in the beginning of year the rouble can and become stronger. With similar forecasts, by the way, Kudrin's successor Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov already acted.

Kudrin considers notorious reduction of prices on oil only on 25 % guilty of rouble falling.

National currencies of other countries dependent on export of oil, have weakened not so strongly. 5-10 more % in rouble depreciation - the factor of strengthening of dollar to other currencies in the world market. Other factors are «risks, expectations and fears» the market.

The chairman of Committee of the civil initiatives, left the government after the conflict to president Dmitry Medvedev of that time, traditionally criticised present ministry under the direction of its opponent. According to Kudrin, the market doubts government measures on improvement of an investment climate and support of economic growth. Also head KGI does not believe that amnesty of capitals will return money to Russia because of all the same investment climate.

Kudrin has directly declared that the role in a rouble collapse has played also the scandalous transaction of "Rosneft".

On December, 11th "Rosneft" has placed bonds on 625 billion roubles, the same day the board of directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has made decision to include these bonds in the pawn list. The corporation and has not put up this money in currency, but such risks and opacity of the transaction have warmed up the market, Kudrin has noted, having complained that in the company have admitted in its party «emotional statements». The head of "Rosneft" Igor Sechin has rejected vigorously these charges, prodcherknuv thus that «with provokers it is necessary to understand».

Rouble easing will worsen also its position in Custom union, the president of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has already suggested to settle payments with Russia in dollars, and the western sanctions have forced Russia to toughen the customs control with partners in the HARDWARE.

Kudrin's three scenarios for Putin

The former minister has told that before joining of Crimea in March has reported on the president three economic scenarios in connection with sanctions. Kudrin has noticed that the Kremlin counted consequences of sanctions: «... Government institutions and Presidential Administration prepared economic estimations and reported on the president … <> Conversation has taken place in March. I have given the estimations of consequences, they were heard by the president and the prime minister, I have simply retold them, in written form then have transferred to the assistant to the president», - Kudrin has told.

Kudrin without specifications of concrete steps has urged Russia to reconcile with the West and not to create in Ukraine the decaying conflict as without warming of relations any packet of anti-recessionary measures is useless. As an example it has resulted the countries BRIKS, India and China which at close economic relations with the West keep the sovereignty.

While the national economy future is sad: the rating of Russia will pass in the category of "garbage". At that volume of obligations which is saved up both in dollar, and in rouble expression, owing to infringement of work of economy and mutual non-payments, and also in the conditions of deterioration of payment discipline Russia will see a train of defaults of the average and large enterprises.

The former Minister of Finance against an economic crisis predicts strengthening of protests, but does not wait that the protest wave will lead to political crisis and falling of the state institutes. Kudrin also has traditionally refused to make comments, whether it is ready to come to work in the government if present ministry will send in resignation.

About Vladimir Putin Kudrin responded rather accurately where ohotnee criticising the incompetent government, than errors of the president.

On a direct question, whether the president gives itself the report to weights of a current situation, Kudrin has declared that at «of it there is not enough information». Besides, head KGI has noticed that the assistant to the president known for left views Sergey Glazyev does not influence today state economic policy.

The purpose - to return back to the government

All interrogated "Gazetoj.Ru" experts have agreed in opinion that Kudrin's purpose - to return to the government, but today it is improbable.

The general director of Institute of priority regional projects Nikolay Mironov believes that if also Medvedev's government will offer in case of situation deterioration on a post of the prime minister will choose the political heavyweight strong and close to the president.

«If now to replace the government and the Central Bank is means to undersign for weakness and an erroneous political policy. In that case responsibility will be thrown on the president», - Mironov believes.

The political scientist considers that Kudrin creates to itself image of the westernized leader of middle class and press conference is more likely calculated on electorate, instead of on Putin who prefers to carry on similar negotiations kuluarno.

At the same time Mironov believes that Kudrin's returning in the government will change nothing, as the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank lead economy its rate: in the conditions of crisis protect large corporations from a near environment, increasing loading by small and average business.

«Without Kudrin the government all the same follows kudrinskomu to a rate. With Kudrin's possible returning it is not necessary to wait for changes. The oligarchical state, raw dependence, unfair tax and political system» will remain, - the expert concludes.

While prospects of returning of Kudrin are not present, professor MGIMO Valery Solovej agrees. They become real if Russia heads for settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and will try to perform the next attempt of economic modernisation.

«And while to change a rate gathers nobody. A rate former. A command former. Kudrin from the moment of leaving acts in Cassandra's role. As alarmizmom he was engaged literally right after leaving from the government, in its pessimistic forecasts have ceased to trust. But now that case when it is necessary to believe. Its returning would be sign for the West, for any part of our large and average business. But Putin, probably, considers that signals is sent already enough. So in the near future Kudrin will be hardly demanded», - political scientist Konstantin Kalachev agrees.

Vladimir Dergachev

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Tags: Russia , crisis

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