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The sharp aggravation of the international situation in late October, November of the current year: there are signs of the preparation of the "radical" solution to the Syrian issue
Material posted: -Publication date: 20-10-2012

The most important event of this fall will certainly be elections in the United States. US presidential elections 2012 will be held on Tuesday 6 November. And here's an 8 November Congress of the Communist party of China. Does not cause special questions the fact that the Chinese are specifically marketed it almost simultaneously with elections in the USA. Indirectly, this suggests that about the outcomes of these elections this is a lot of uncertainty.

Even more unclear regarding the effects of the coming to power of the Republican candidates: according to the Financial Times, the draft program adopted at the Republican national Convention includes a paragraph about the audit of the fed and the creation of a "Commission on gold", which will consider restoration of the link between the dollar and gold[1]. But on December 23, marks 99 years since the founding of the fed. Interestingly, prolong its mandate for the issue of the dollar, especially if you come to power, the Republicans?

Against this background, Russia has experienced the biggest outflow of capital in the last five weeks. Fund managers investing in the shares of Russian companies, reported an outflow of funds amounting to EUR 49 million (equivalent to 0.35% of assets under management). This is stated in a study made by specialists of the Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR) by order of the Russian investment company "URALSIB capital". The document reflects the situation for the week ending Sunday 17 October[2].

Amid the economic turmoil escalated military preparations. With an emphasis on information components and "means of distance impact on the enemy" (cruise missiles). The escalation of military preparations provokes the situation in Syria. In recent weeks the situation has stabilized: no one party has enough power for reshitelno step that clearly does not suit the opponents of Bashar al-Assad.

So, NATO countries are preparing to hold military exercises will be practiced where the possibility of cyber attacks one of the African countries, but the main opponents recognized Russia. The exercise Cyber Coalition 2012 will be held from 13 to 16 November. In addition to Russia, the main kiberprestupniki NATO named China and, importantly, Iran, they, too, will be performing the exercises simulated enemy[3].

Also, DARPA is beginning to implement "Plan X", whose main purpose is to develop elements of the "operational art" of conducting cyber warfare[4].

The head of the U.S. General staff arrives in Israel to inspect joint exercises of the air defense forces of the USA and Israel[5].

Joint exercises of air defense forces should start from October 22 this year.[6] In exercise "Austere Challenge 12" will involve the Patriot missile defense system, Iron Dome and Arrow, including for testing lesions of unmanned aerial vehicles. To arrive in Israel 1,000 U.S. military personnel, via military computer systems will involve an additional 2,000 troops of the European command of the U.S. armed forces. It is expected that at least one warship of the U.S. Navy equipped with the AEGIS system, will be held at the port of Haifa.

On the eve of these events, on 18 October this year was Held unscheduled meeting of Ahmadinejad and Erdogan[7]

On October 19, in downtown Beirut bombing occurred, in which eight people were killed and about 80 were injured. When the explosion of a car bomb killed a senior member of the security forces of Lebanon called visama al-Hasan, who led the intelligence service of the internal security forces of Lebanon[8]. As you know, Lebanon is a base of Hezbollah – an ally of Iran in the region.

In September there was information that Us-Israeli consortium intends to sell 30 percent giant gas field "Leviathan" on the shelf of the Mediterranean sea. One of the applicants may be Russian "Gazprom" for which the participation in the Mediterranean project is the most important tool of reorientation of global gas flows in the interest of maintaining their own dominant position.

In October it became known that the Russian gas monopolist Gazprom is the favorite in the fight for the participation in the development of a gas field Leviathan in the Mediterranean sea off the coast of Israel[9]. According to some experts, this can be a price in political bargaining for change in the Russian position on Syria.

It should be noted another fact, which is of particular value in Russia, the new commander of the Russian Navy immediately after his appointment had been instructed to begin the translation of the main Navy headquarters from Moscow to St. Petersburg in September this year[10] a Similar situation occurred in August 2008, when the Main operational Department of the General staff was caught which started the campaign in the Caucasus during the move. Communication and control the grouping of troops then were practically lost for a few hours. Given that one of the objects of the Russian Navy is in Syrian Tartus, we can assume that the move is not the best way will be the handling of the Navy, and it can be used.

Against this background, Russia completed the largest exercise of strategic nuclear forces[11].

In General, November is a good time to initiate aggression against Syria and Iran.












Tags: Iran , assessment , Russia , Syria , USA , China , Israel

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