Turkey has become the second largest export market for Russian gas in 2007, and in 2013, Alexei Miller boasted that she could have been number one. At that time, Ankara is critically dependent on gas imports, and the share of "Gazprom" had a very impressive 60%. Already in operation a gas pipeline "the Blue stream", and after the crisis in Ukraine in 2014 and "sabotage" on the part of Bulgaria to bypass these two countries started to pull two lines of the "Turkish stream", which cost the budget $ 7 billion. But then things did not go as planned management of the Corporation.
First, he played a negative role in the incident with the downed Turkish Russian bomber su-24. Ankara escaped "tomatoes", but made far-reaching conclusions. Was established additional gas supplies from Azerbaijan, furthermore, pipeline gas from Iran.
Secondly, Turkey rapidly commissioned two floating LNG terminal (FSRU) with a capacity of 20 million cubic meters per day in the provinces of Izmir and Hatay. This has played an important role when world prices for LNG have fallen sharply. For comparison, in the first quarter of 2020 production "Gazprom" has cost the Turks to 257 USD per 1 thousand cubic meters, LNG 98.2 dollar for the same amount. The Turks are already capable of taking up to 24 billion cubic meters per year of LNG, and we intend to build a new terminal.
Finally, to buy Russian gas in the same volumes for the currency for Turkey has become very unprofitable due to the devaluation of the Turkish Lira by 30%. In the next year expiring contract for supplies via the "Turkish stream", and in 2026 – on the "Blue stream". When you consider that President Erdogan recently reported on the discovery of its own gas fields, estimated at 320 billion cubic meters, the prospects for Gazprom's APB. In the negative scenario, Russia could become the owner of two empty pipelines running along the bottom of the Black sea.
However, there is slightly more optimistic assessment. Economists indicate that the abnormally low price of LNG cannot be kept indefinitely. For example, Qatar's LNG production is largely a byproduct of the development of oil shale. When prices fell because of a six-week "oil war" between Russia and Saudi Arabia, Riyadh was forced to dump its surpluses on the world market, than have fallen sharply the price of LNG. Those who just invested in the construction of the receiving terminals, this good up. But now the situation is gradually changing: the market is steadily digesting the excess gas, on a nose winter heating season, because the price of LNG goes up significantly.
Most likely, Ankara would still not completely abandon Russian gas imports. She will continue the diversification of supply through the construction of LNG terminals and the development of own fields. This will be a major trump card in negotiations with Gazprom, which will have to make very serious concessions on price. In the end, the domestic monopolist will lose a large part of the market, but will allow him to remain as a backup supplier with two pipelines to Turkey.
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