When I started the shale revolution and Russian experts warned that it is a fiction and the "bubble", promoted by Americans, then to me it was less obvious than it is now. That's the paradox: it would seem that the first shale gas went to the domestic U.S. market and world market, prices fell, Gazprom has curtailed some projects and have missed a few billion - and it would be necessary on the contrary, believe in the shale revolution and to recognize its danger.
As did the same "Gazprom" and, in fact, the Russian Ministry of energy. But the fact of the matter is that it is such a development could not be more convinced that the US seriously intends to inflate a new bubble, which needs only one of its intimidating appearance and grandiose prospects to derail the global energy market, primarily Gazprom. In fact, we have a repetition of the Strategic defense initiative Reagan, but only in another area and with a much more elaborate concrete actions. If in 80-e years the main struggle between the USSR and the United States moved into space and the Americans needed a space Scarecrow, which was driven to the Union at a huge cost and the fear of defeat, in the 2010s, the competition shifted to the field of energy resources and the primary objective of the Americans to create a gas scare and plunging thereby into chaos already in the Russian Federation.
Gazprom and its gas pipeline network under Putin has become the most important geopolitical weapon of the new Russia.
In a situation of total weakening of the country and its half-life is the new President made a bid for one of the most obvious and almost the last strong point the energy. Given the ever-increasing requests for them in the world and their reserves are unprecedented in Russia, which, however, had previously plundered by the reformers and oligarchs, given that already in the late Soviet Union oil and gas sector was well developed and played a significant role in the economy, this choice was more than justified, because the gas and oil after the collapse of the common economic space and after the destruction of steel production in fact, the only large-scale source of income for the state budget. And if in the early 2000s, Gazprom was perceived only as a means of survival, the ten years have all found that it has become a weapon of expansion of Russia - both to the West and the East. In fact, Russia emerged on the world stage thanks to "Gazprom" and its energy.
In this situation, for US the task was to neutralize the new weapon of Russian and derail the pillar on which rests the whole economy of the country. This vulnerability, of course, does not paint the Russian government and the whole country, but it has developed historically, and we have assumed that we have. At the same time criticizing such their vulnerability and planning to reduce it through the rise of other sectors (science and industry), we cannot fail to recognize that thanks to the energy we have managed to bind itself to China, Germany and all of continental Europe, back to South America, partially restore its positions in the post-Soviet space. And no matter how hard the West is and as much as I was hoping the Russian compradors, derail energy prices failed. Largely due to the West, which is forced to wage war in different regions of the world, which automatically leads to an increase in energy demand.
Remains the only way - is to saturate the market to the limit, supersaturate it with cheap product.
To do this, pulled out of the dusty chests method of shale gas production, opened in 1821, but abandoned for its inefficiency. Without entering into the endless debate about shale (more about them can be read here), I note the point: even its production is accompanied by severe environmental damage, pollution. In addition, the production of this, as a rule, even with the creation of new horizontal drilling technology is costly and complex, with the exception of certain places in the US. Now in the world launched a powerful awareness campaign, designed to convince that all this is nonsense and any flaws in shale gas production does not exist. I am convinced that millions of dollars flowed to the expert community and the media to escalate the mass hysteria on the subject of the imminent collapse of prices and a huge number of cheap and useless gas. In the modern media world, the image of danger is often more important than the hazard itself, and the "bubble" becomes more real than reality itself. From time to time.
Much more money the fed allocated to the development of the market of cheap gas, to make the mining profitable and attractive for companies. It is known that the US government is actively handing out loans to those who extract shale gas, so they did not work at a loss. This is a classic way to inflate the "bubble" and use it to solve political problems. The scheme of the "bubble" might look like this: "Created a company that is starting to drill and produce CL. gas, even a little, but at the same time, the company issues shares at $ 1, for example. A year later, she was naburili naturally more wells and produced more gas. It produces an annual report with the profit, which means their shares jump in price. Are available on stocks, but at a much higher price at 10 dollars. The same situation repeats every year, but the shares already sold at $ 50 apiece. The money for the shares goes honestly in a pretty good salary, bonuses, and so and so, of course, that part of the money goes to the development. In a few years it turns out that the gas "ek nasyalnika"! The company goes bankrupt. What about the stock that the suckers have bought for 50 dollars? Well so they go for the price of toilet paper, and no one is to blame - the client decided to spend their money on stocks and.... flew".
At the same time, Washington is beginning to invest in the development of shale gas in other regions and countries, particularly those that are dependent on Russia. Now the same Ukrainian elite offers fabulous profits for the fact that she gave under shale production land in Lviv, Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. Naturally, the gentlemen happily agreed and signed contracts with Western companies, despite the risk of contamination of the territories in which live tens of thousands of people, and non-obvious possible results. Because the Western partners, as always, are limited only to promises in return for specific obligations. And it is possible that contaminating the Ukrainian land and a good torment their Ukrainian partners, they, after the "bubble" will burst, only to shrug and not Ukraine will pay a penny.
It is generally accepted that the US print (or just drives in the computer) trillions of dollars. And they don't care where they distribute. Why would the part not used for the inflation of the "energy bubble", the creation of new SOYBEANS, which will create a tantrum supposedly impending revolution?
Why not convince all around that and people will gain cheap resources that exist in each country? Why not build in the minds of those who are happy to be deceived, new rainbow illusion? Then to brutally kill her. And no matter what the result will be a disfigured huge territory like the Ukraine, or in Europe or in the States themselves that are deceived people, companies and countries. The main thing - to bring down the geopolitical enemy, to extinguish "hot spots" and allow the dollar System to hold its "reset". Obviously, for example, that with the collapsed energy prices Russia will be much harder to defend Syria.
Bluff Ronald Reagan on the creation of laser systems in space, which can react immediately to the entrance of missiles in outer space, largely prompted the Soviet Union to "rebuild", which eventually brought him. However, this occurred not only through the bluff, but because of the timidity and inconsistency of the Soviet leadership (leave out the final corruption of the Soviet elite). The bluff is valid only for weak and stupid people. You can not say about the current President of Russia, as to him who has no attitude. For this reason, I am absolutely convinced that another bluff Washington will be futile.
Obviously, Putin and "Gazprom" will react to the situation as you change the gas market. It has already happened. On the other hand, the slow nature of the reaction shows that the first results of the so-called "shale revolution" as a whole did not change the relationship to it of Russia as a new "soap bubble". Yes, Russia will continue in the event of a further fall in gas prices to change the structure of the economy and the work of "Gazprom" (in particular, she starts to develop the production of oil shale). Moreover, it can even be another motivation for the planned re-industrialization and abandonment of its heavy dependence on energy sales. At the same time, Russia does not twitch and does not fall into a tantrum, start an arms race in this area or to abandon the promotion of its gas projects, or certainly not take the path of "political democratization" or "perestroika-2". We play long and believe that the short-term bluff. And they let hysteria and engaging adventure different fools around the world. Let's see who is right.
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