Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / The future of Russia and the world: estimates and projections / Articles
The U.S. overtook Russia for the production of oil and gas
Material posted: Publication date: 04-10-2013

President Barack Obama closer than ever to the execution of the main dreams of all American leaders — the elimination of U.S. dependence on imported hydrocarbons. Thanks to the boom of shale production in the country this year will surpass Russia in total production of oil and gas and will become the world's largest producer of hydrocarbons. Russia in this scenario will seriously lose, analysts warn.

"Saudi America"

Apparently, the US already overtook Russia for the production of hydrocarbons, learned the newspaper the Wall Street Journal. According to the Department of energy information on U.S. and International energy Agency, USA in July daily produced oil and gas in the equivalent of 22 million barrels. In Russia there is no such data, but according to the Russian forecast the level of production in the country in 2013, 21.8 million barrels. of hydrocarbons per day.

Actually Russia began to lag behind the U.S. in the past year, when America for the first time since 1982, ahead of its natural gas production. "By the end of 2013 the production of natural gas in the U.S. exceeds 65 billion cubic feet per day, whereas in Russia — 63 billion cubic feet per day. According to the forecasts of Russian gas production will grow in the following years, but not enough to overtake the USA", — told RBC daily Vice President of IHS CERA's Peter Jackson.

On oil, while the U.S. is lagging behind, getting to 9.9 billion barrels. per day compared to 10.8 million barrels. in the first half of 2013. However, several years ago, the gap was 3 million barrels. (today 0.9 million). World leader in oil production — Saudi Arabia, which is producing 11.7 million barrels. a day. However, it is predicted by 2017 by increasing production on the shelf of the USA will overtake this manufacturer and will become the world's largest oil producer. Not coincidentally, the U.S. is now jokingly referred to as "Saudi America."

Route changes

"New era" — said the head of the Department of energy Seminskii Adam, emphasizing that for now the U.S. market will have new possibilities that "we never dreamed". In practice, this means that the U.S. will become more volatile (Obama promised to reduce by half the import of raw materials) and there will be a redistribution of trade flows. "Will change the routes of supply — oil producing countries of the Middle East, which focused on the US, are forced to seek other markets, particularly in Asia", — told RBC daily Deputy Director on science of Institute of energy strategy Alexei Gromov. More all the changes in the energy portfolio of the U.S. will affect Canada, for which the neighbor is the largest market of "black gold" (there goes about 99% of foreign supplies of canadian crude oil). To support the demand, canadian companies are forced to do the dumping. The rest of the key oil exporters in the USA are heavy. The supply of crude oil from Nigeria have dropped last year by half, while Algeria and Angola is a third.

And if to export oil, the U.S. has no plans, plans gas-bolder — Obama promised that the country will become a net exporter of natural gas by 2020. Two years ago, the US has allowed the export of gas, however, the Ministry of energy is still very reluctant to grant permission to foreign deliveries, fearing that exports would raise prices on the domestic market.

Russia lose

The successes of the U.S. Russia's prospects are not as shiny. "Russia looks like the main loser in the global market", — quotes the edition the head of the Department of oil and gas complex development at the energy research Institute of RAS Tatiana Mitrova. "Russia remains the largest gas exporter; however, over the last decade the country has lost its position. In plans of Russia to enter the global LNG market thanks to projects such as Yamal LNG, and future LNG plants in Sakhalin, Vladivostok and Leningrad region. But the costs of Russian companies will be significantly higher costs for gas production in the United States. In addition, Russia is preparing to launch their projects only to the end of the decade, while increasing U.S. exports today: four projects have received permission to export liquefied natural gas and another 20 companies are in the queue", — explained RBC daily analyst BKS Timur Salikhov.

With oil the situation is even worse. "More than 90% of production in Russia falls at fields in Western Siberia developed over 30 years. Production at these fields the last few years has been steadily falling. Deposits in new regions (Eastern Siberia, Timan-Pechora, as well as shelf seas), which the company gradually put into operation, helping to maintain the overall production profile of Russia, but in the next few years this will become more capital-intensive," said Mr. Salikhov. "Russia has already reached the bar 515-520 million tons per year is the maximum that we can produce at the current development of oil fields and the level of competition", — said Alexei Gromov. According to experts ' forecasts, oil exports after 2015 will be reduced by 25-30%.

Julia Colchicina


Source: http://rbcdaily.ru/world/562949989122544

Tags: assessment , USA , resources , oil , gaz


RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics
Возрастное ограничение