4 Jun 2010 the staff of the Centre took part in all-Russian scientific conference "Futurological Congress: the future of Russia and the world". The conference is organized by the Department of social Sciences, Institute of scientific information for social Sciences, Institute for economic strategies of RAS, Institute of applied mathematics. M. V. Keldysh Russian Academy of Sciences, Center for problem analysis and the governance at the UN, Russian Academy of Sciences. Conference was opened by Vladimir Yakunin.
Given the small have speech, will be limited to consideration only of 2 groups of long-term factors, which, in our opinion, can have a significant importance in the next 10-15 years. First, it is the exhaustion of reserves of easily accessible oil worldwide and in Russia in the first place. It is no exaggeration to say that in this case, the world, expect such shocks, the current financial crisis will seem mild an unfortunate accident. The whole of modern civilization is built on oil - from energy and transportation to manufacturing clothes, furniture and high technology, requiring large energy consumption.
Today most predictive estimates of probable reserves peculiar complacency. However, there are other opinions. For example, according to Oxford University's, current world oil reserves overestimated in 3 times. In other words, can the oil end 2030-2040, and in a short time. In late April of the danger of the imminent energy crisis talks in the Pentagon. There are forced to objectively assess the situation, because this depends on the scenario of the worsening situation in the world, for example, between the USA and China, which intensively develops and requires more resources, including energy. In addition, there is Russia with its large reserves of raw materials and undeveloped territory. Therefore, confrontation in the triangle USA - China - Russia" may become the main military and political theme of the next decades or even years. According to our estimates, in Russia the easily accessible oil could end by 2020 Really, why would it in Russia today proven reserves of 20 billion tons, when in the USSR there were 10 billion? 20 years of pumping, the oil exploration in the rubble, and the inventory increases? Something's not right here. No wonder, Russian oil companies are already trying to find their place in Iraq, South America, offshore in the Arctic ocean. This is an indirect confirmation of depletion. Even the Ministry of Finance estimates, the share of oil sector in GDP due to the inevitable slowdown of production in the next decade will be reduced from 25% to 14%. Along with it will fall and income from the sale of oil and gas - by 3.5-4% of GDP.
Therefore, in the next decade it is expected the intensification of work in nuclear and thermonuclear energy. Secondly, there is still great threat to the world from private enterprise - the U.S. Federal reserve. This powerful organization showered the world with its dollars that are from 1971 by the decree of the President of the United States get rid of the gold. Unsecured real assets dollars the fundamental cause of the current financial crisis and future crises. The spread of the dollar allows the United States to receive the tribute from all over the world value of about $1 trillion. a year.
To ensure proper receipt of this tribute, the US uses its Armed forces, which are funded almost on the same level as the armed forces of all other countries. In other words, militarily the US is willing to oppose the rest of the world.
But the Armed forces of the United States need to pay, and real, not paper, values. And these costs are growing faster than the income from the activities of the fed. In the end, at some point in time when expenses will exceed the revenues, the activities of the fed will become unprofitable. Will need to change the rules of the game: to declare dollar default and switch to a new currency, etc. According to our estimates, changing the rules of the game could happen in the current decade. The most pessimistic period - end 2010 In the last century upheavals in the global financial system resulted in world wars. It is possible that it will happen this time. We don't want to scare anyone, all the more so today in the media and without a lot of any horror stories. But in this case the results of the forecast - is almost pure mathematics, there's no need for Cassandra. Additional information for consideration: in early may, the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev in interview to the newspaper "Izvestia" stated that Russia must be prepared for conflict, the scale comparable with the Second world war.
Therefore, the prediction for 2020, in our view, largely pointless; the focus should be on the time frame 2010-2020
Many of You have read the famous book by A. Parshev "Why Russia is not America". Its author pointed to one of the factors - climate, leading to a weakening of competitive positions of Russia on the world market. But in relation to the USA there is another very important factor: America can almost uncontrollably to print the world currency, and Russia - no. The result of this asymmetry is predetermined, and he is not in favor of Russia.
Now about the near future. It is clear that whatever the plans for the modernization, the immediate future will be determined not by plans, programmes and concepts, and modern initial conditions. About the same as in the solution of differential equations: there are trends, and there are initial conditions. What are the initial conditions, which point towards the future development of Russia? I will mention only the most significant ones. Currently, the entire Russian economy and social system - this function essentially of one variable: the price of Russian oil Urals on the world market. Proceeds from the sale of oil and gas money is correctly returned to the global financial system, making it impossible for the development of their own innovative projects and the economy as a whole. Even in the crisis year of 2009, when the deficit of the Russian state budget was $87 billion, for 2-4 quarters in reserves were transferred to the $60 billion No national objectives that do not clearly explain. Russian companies are actually sold to foreign financial groups, holding their shares abroad. The Russian stock market has become a haven for speculators and cannot contribute to the development of the real economy. The energy intensity of Russia's GDP is 2.5 times higher than the world average and 3.5 times higher than in developed countries.
Heating efficiency is lower in Russia is 1.2 times higher than in Germany and France, and 3 times - than in the Scandinavian countries. According to experts, losses in the Russian system of a heat supply reach 50% of total heat production in Finland, this figure stands at 6%. Ie, 200 kilometers North of Russia, things are very different. More than half of the turbines installed at Russian hydroelectric power station, has a wear factor of over 95%. CHP more than half of the equipment has a depreciation of more than 90%. Wear construction funds approaching 100%. The country has entered a period of accidents, which will last at best 5-7 years. To the question about innovation: funding of research and development for civil purposes in 2010, the state allocates 159 billion rubles ($5.4 billion) - approximately 0.37 percent of GDP, i.e. 0.94% of the consolidated budget. In 2010 the volume of financing of the RAS and its regional branches amounted to about 50 billion rubles. To assess the magnitude of this quantity: in the end of 2009, Sberbank spent on the rebranding of the 20 billion rubles of the Russian entrepreneurs to invest in innovation even reluctantly: private investment in R & d constitute approximately one quarter of the total. For comparison, the Chinese government in 2008 spent on R & d $67 billion - about 2% of GDP, local business has invested in development $142,4 billion (68% of total investments).
The budgets of some Russian research Institute from among the best make up 3-5% of the budget of similar institutions in the United States. Individual projects such as special settlement SKOLKOVO only to vividly underline the absence of the system and apparatus of managing complex scientific and technical programs. Currently, 85-90% of the population lives from paycheck to paycheck. In almost all the regions of Russia most of the families are on the verge of a real living wage. The lack of sufficient material incentives to labour leads to the fact that 50% of working time is used inefficiently. Simply put - half of working time lost. This data is of special sociological research. According to Rosstat, the unemployment rate in Russia in April 2010 was 8.2%.
The key concept that defines the basic principle of the modern Russian political system - the "vertical of power". It replaced another key concept of society - the "rule of law". The "vertical of power" principle is above the law, considers and uses the law only as an auxiliary means of its functioning and achieve their goals. As a result of "vertical" under a dominates all other institutions, destroys the mechanisms of self-regulation, distorts the balance of rights and responsibilities as political actors, and economic actors, depriving them of incentives for development and competition. Local government is useless because it is missing economic base: 64% of tax fees paid to the Federal centre and the regions are only 36%. Under this system, donors are 13 regions out of 83. It is clear that about any autonomy in these circumstances cannot be considered. At the end of 2009 regional development Minister Viktor Basargin recognized the failure of the national project "Affordable housing". Despite the growing budgetary funding from 2006 to 2008, the increase in annual construction volume practically has not made housing more affordable. In Russia there is a huge problem of rehabilitation of old housing, which may require hundreds of billion (up to $1 trillion.) dollars.
Provision of population with food products and approximately 2 times below the level of food security. The problem is so serious that in December 2009, the Security Council returned to consideration of the doctrine of food security. Older people remember what followed the Food program of the USSR.
About Russian roads: the cost of a kilometer of the road is higher than the average ten times, the market is closed and corrupt. According to the report of the UN office against drugs and organized crime (UNODC), annual consumption of heroin in Russia in the last 10 years increased 10 times and reached 75-80 so the Number of heroin users in Russia (1.5 million) equal to their number in Europe or in the United States and Canada combined.
The percentage of Russians who use opiates, is 5-8 times higher than the corresponding figure in EU countries (in Germany - in 20 times). The damage to Russia's drug addiction, is around 2 trillion. RUB. per year. The inhabitants of the country, it is unclear what more to be afraid of gangsters and law enforcement officers. Theft, corruption and the shadow economy have become a significant part of system and purchased a scale comparable to the GDP of the country. According to Rosstat, the share of the shadow economy in Russia - about 20% of official GDP. And foreign estimates (Schneider), the level of shadow economy in 25 developing countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union to the beginning of 2008 was 40% of GDP, in Russia - 49,4%. According to expert data, in 1996-1999 the so-called "kickbacks" accounted for an average of 10% of contract amount, in 1999-2003 - 20% in 2003-2005 35% in 2005-2008 to 40% in 2008-2009 to 60% in 2009-2010 to 70%. Approximately 2/3 of the cases, the rollback leaves the officer in an offshore account, in other cases - transferred cash. High variation in the level of life of Russian citizens has become one of the main threats to national security. In 2008, the mass affluent segment in Russia amounted to 1.2 million persons (0,8% of the population). They own 4.2 trillion. RUB liquid assets (10% of GDP), 40% of private deposits in the banking system ($2 trillion. RUB.), 70% of investments in local mutual funds (100 billion rubles) and 30% of the population income ($6 trillion. RUB).
The current economic and financial crisis has highlighted long-standing defects of the domestic economy and financial system. In 2009, the economic growth of the Russian Federation took 207 place of 214. Of the G20 countries - on all parameters of the 20-th place. The level of corruption - 147th place out of 180 countries. On life expectancy - 131-e a place from 180.
There is a myth that in the last decade was the militarization of the country and the revival of military power to the level of the Soviet Union. The analysis shows that in reality there was a degradation of the Russian armed forces. Negative processes are already irreversible. In the end, the capabilities of the Russian armed forces, for example, on the Western strategic direction is lower of the U.S. and NATO. You should not be surprised: in recent years, the annual defense budget equal to the annual income of 10 people-called Russian oligarchs. Comments are superfluous. And this against the background of ongoing global crisis and the escalating threat of a new world war.
In 1990 in RSFSR there were megamachine the state, was released cement 83 million tons, and in Russia in the relatively successful 2008 53.5 million tons; chemical fibers and threads, respectively 673 and 123 thousand tons; truck - 256 and 665 thousand units; tractors - 213 and 17.8 thousand pieces; machine tools, Metalworking - 74,2 and 4.8 thousand pieces; civilian aircraft - 124 and 6 pieces. The commissioning of new production capacities in the energy sector in the 2000s in comparison with 1980-mi decreased by 3.8 times, in the industry - nearly 11 times, new roads paved in 86 times.
The level of inflation at the end of last year Russia has occupied 3-e a place in Europe, behind the Ukraine and Belarus. The growth of consumer prices in Russia amounted in 2009 to 8.8%, in Belarus - 10.1%, and in Ukraine - 12.3 percent. Is responsible for inflation, the Bank of Russia. But formally it is not subject to the government. It seems that he is not enslaved to the President. Ie, a key institution in the country performs the tasks of the global financial system. And the task of preventing inflation it performs poorly (it should be noted that in 2009 the consumer price index of 8.8% was achieved through sales: without them it would have amounted to 10.5%; for citizens not participating in the sales of the most expensive goods, inflation could be 20%).
At the end of April 2010, the audit chamber has published information about the disregard by the Bank of Russia at least 2 fundamental laws of the Russian Federation - the Constitution (article 75) and the Federal law "On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)", prescribing the TSB the protection and stability of the ruble". Selected in September 2009 by the government and the Central Bank rate to inflation targeting has aroused the suspicions of the auditors in contradiction to the fundamental law of the country. On April 22, the Ministry of Finance placed 2 tranches of Eurobonds for $5.5 billion of the anticipated $7 billion i.e. Russia has returned to the world market of government debt. Despite the fact that in the 1st half of the spring 2010 in the Russian international reserves were transferred $22 billion Conclusion: the current financial crisis has shown the failure of the adopted system of economic management that cannot be called a market. These initial conditions in the near future will inevitably lead to big problems for Russia and will cost sovereign wealth funds. It is still half woes: the country with such properties, the duration may not be large. One of the main causes of the Russian financial "crisis" - afelirovannyh huge debts with Russian state companies for which taxpayers pay. What about the effectiveness of "effective owners" can talk seriously when their main purpose is to quickly suck from the depths, easily accessible supplies of raw materials and sell them on the world market, and their financial problems to solve from state funds through bribery and kickbacks?
The main problem of the Russian economy and financial system - capital outflow from the country. Its consequence is high inflation, low productivity, dismal state of the social sphere and the Armed Forces. For example, legal (including in foreign exchange reserves) and illegal capital outflow in 2007 amounted to about 12.5% of GDP. But systematic outflow of that is what gives the rest of the economy to grow. Something similar to tithing in the Tatar-Mongol yoke: only 10%, and the whole country for several centuries in ruins.
In 2006-2007 the Bank of Russia is annually converted into foreign exchange reserves averaged about $150 billion. the money is actually lost for Russia, it is legal capital flight, organized by the Bank of Russia. In fact, he bled all over the economy had led to high inflation, stimulated delays in salary payment, have created the conditions for the reduction of lending to the real sector of the economy. Actually, the Russian banking system are not focused on the national economy, and to the West. Even in early 2009, the state-owned banks, getting a lot of public financial resources to Finance the real economy, began to portray the impossibility of this funding and to transfer money abroad. Thus, 300 billion rubles over six months did not want to transfer the accounts of enterprises. Currently, the Bank of Russia - a large exchanger with a hole, which is where financial resources. It is part of the global financial system, based on the American dollar, and performs in Russia, the tasks of this system. If you do not change its real function, that of all the reforms of the Russian economy and modernization of industry talk is meaningless.
Despite numerous summits, the fundamental causes of the global financial crisis is not resolved. "Toxic" assets technically replaced by newly printed dollars, euros, pounds. But due to the fact that some are not secured by real assets paper, replaced by other papers, overall the situation has not changed. The fed's printing press is not going to stop. So for the 2nd wave of financial crisis will inevitably come 3rd, 4th and subsequent waves. Therefore, the creation of efficient and stable financial system in Russia is one of the most important tasks. During crises of the state crediting of the real sector of the economy needs to conduct a "stained" money to guarantee they are received by enterprises and organizations. If this is not done, the money will go back abroad and offshore. It is advisable also creating a kind of "gateway" between the world and Russian markets.
Thus, I began to move to the recommendations. But as they say, it's a different story outside the topic of the present Congress.
In the state structures with the predictions of the matter is no matter. Can't even for one year, not that for 10-15 years, to predict oil prices and exchange rates of major currencies. As there are long-term concepts and strategies of mystery. And if trying to do it, it turns out something absurd like "an image of desired tomorrow".
And finally, about another forecast. Speaking on April 14, 2010 a lecture at Kyoto University, head of the presidential administration Sergei Naryshkin has voiced a number of very optimistic forecasts concerning the further development of our country and welfare of its citizens. According to him, labor productivity in Russia will grow 2.5 times, and the average monthly salary will be $2.7 thousand, the Average life expectancy during this time will reach 75 years, the middle class will make up half of the total population of the country. S. Naryshkin referred to the implementation of such a scenario are to carry out "large-scale institutional and structural reforms". The objectives derive from the authorities adopted Strategy 2020.
Socio-economic projections of state power, Russians are, to put it mildly, different. And there are substantial grounds. The year of the crisis, the average nominal salary of the Russians increased by 8.5% after rising 15% in 2008, Now it is only a small part of the promised Naryshkin - 19 128 rubles (about $645).
According to the health Ministry, in connection with low wages, the budget deficit of the Russian families is currently $ 450 billion. But here the rare case when you can admit: the predictions of power-realistic. But if the 2 significant conditions - the lack of a new devastating global crisis and the elimination of capital outflow from the country: legal (including, in the so-called foreign exchange reserves) and illegal. This implies a fundamental modernization of the financial system, the formation of objective conditions for the deduction and, perhaps, attraction of financial capital. In the context of this important task is the creation of the Russian international financial centre (IFC) in Moscow. It will fundamentally change for the better economic situation in the country due to the fact that capital will not go away, but rather coming to us from abroad. Or, at least, to remain in the country. This will dramatically (2-3 times) to increase the GDP and average income per capita that correspond to the recently announced S. Naryshkin in Japan figures about the economic prospects of Russia. Improvement should occur by strengthening the incentives to work and increase its performance. MFC is required for efficient competitive economy. Otherwise came into the country of foreign capital as easily leave, only provoking the aggravation of the crisis. It is therefore important to find the sectors of the Russian economy, which could become locomotives of growth. Such analysis is carried out and these industries associated with a binding capital-to Russian territory, was found. We can provide these results. One of the possible directions - the creation of transport corridors "East-West" and "North-South".
After the reduction of capital outflows from the country may reduce the rate of inflation, and the ruble can become attractive for international settlements. Now when officially declared inflation to be serious about the ruble as a reserve currency, it is impossible. The main problems in Russia have gained such urgency that they have to talk in terms of national security and to apply the appropriate tools. It is advisable to think about modifying and strengthening the role of the Security Council in the circuit of management of the economy, where he now performs primarily the functions of the mannequin. One way of countering increasing threats is the use of state of the state methods of strategic forecasting and planning. The appropriateness of spending limited resources inherent to any state in any sphere of its activities. It must know the supporters of the ultra-liberal approach, which in any scheduled event see the attempted revival of the Gulag. Look at the EU, the normalizing costs of Greece, look at USA, modernizing the financial system under the auspices of the state.
The last 20 years in Russia it was believed that the state should not interfere in the business. In the end the pilfering of natural resources has become enormous, deforming not only the economy but the environment and way of life. It's time to remember that the state is obliged to monitor and regulate the sector in the national interest. This is one of its core functions.
We assume that in the near future in connection with the aggravation of the key problems is indicated by a trend for increased state management of the economy. It can happen on a global scale amid the General decline in available resources and development of crisis phenomena. Though, because a global economy requires global governance. Therefore, we would not be surprised if the discussion topics of a world government would soon become very relevant. Of course, in the peaceful development of events. Conclusion: the coming decade for Russia can be very not simple. A lot will depend on the desire of state authorities to a greater extent to meet the national interests, not the world's financial institutions.
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