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Three scenarios of world governance: in search of optimal model
Material posted: Publication date: 13-01-2014

Experts give different forecasts about the future of a rapidly changing world. In November of last year in the capital of the United Arab Emirates organized an international forum on this topic. They talked about several scenarios. The experts discussed the question of which model of global governance can be dominant. In the forum, which sounded interesting ideas, attention was drawn to the diversity of opinions.

Geopolitics in the information age

At the world Economic Forum organized in the capital of the United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi, discussed three possible scenarios of global governance in the world. They are of interest insofar as relating to the global strategic management. The experts exchanged views on the question of which model will dominate in the management in 2050.

This question is not accidental, since increasing acceleration of globalization and the rapid development of information and communication technologies have highlighted this problem. You should consider the fact that manifested in the modern world, the contradictions are different in nature. The question of their influence on the destiny of humanity as a whole is of interest.

Thus it is necessary to emphasize one important point. According to leading scientists in the world, currently we are at the third stage of the information revolution. Now the most important is the content, namely the concept of information. This situation in itself shows the importance of global governance by information. The task is to develop a model of such management. At the summit in Abu Dhabi in the center was this aspect of the problem.

During the summit, were analyzed three possible scenarios. First, the world is run by "megacities". Secondly, the Central government to strengthen its control use "big data". Thirdly, Central governments are fundamentally weak, but they managed markets and provide almost all services (see: Joseph S. Nye. Governance in the Information Age / "Project Syndicate", December 5, 2013).

Each of the above methods reflect important innovations in management. The first two methods are based on the concept of further strengthening of the Central government. The probability of governing the world's major cities (speaking in ancient Greek terminology, the "policies") rests on a prediction about the leading role of a limited number of States. A number of researchers of the West (for example, canadian sociologist M. McLuhan) considered this option dangerous for mankind, because then the world would have turned into a "global village" and many people would become slaves managed by information with a single center. In this sense, the notion of "megapolis" contains uncertainty and political implications. Apparently, supporters of this administration believe that even in 2050 the world will be controlled by the West.

The second scenario is essentially the same as the first. It only explicitly expresses the world through control of information from the limited number of people. But the attempt to give scientific basis for this idea creates the impression that such control is quite natural. For example, a thesis about what the information revolution changed the nature of politics and power. Improving the quality of education, tax collection, creating a more healthy system of health care, creating jobs, introducing new technologies, etc. give rise to qualitatively different social and cultural environment. Have the opportunity to receive the greatest profit at the lowest cost.

Local governance, leadership and fairness

In this scenario means an increase in the degree of participation of citizens in political processes. As the main path is the development of social media. More specifically, at the root of this approach lies the belief in the possibility of a more efficient governance through new technologies. For the transformation of public processes open new opportunities. And at the same time increasing performance.

Hence it is concluded that corporate governance is the most optimal scenario. In short, the "basic information" in the information age acts as a form of domination.

Finally, the third scenario may occur on the basis of the principle of the development of civil society. The most progresses non-governmental cross-section of society. Social strata are actively involved in the political, economic and cultural life of society. There is a growing influence on the management of social media and networks. Particularly increasing the role of youth.

All this in a sense means the weakening of the government and "dissemination" of power in the society. "Stratfor" founder George Friedman believes this scenario is more promising. In any event, the third option leads to more open and democratic society.

But there are some sensitive aspects in terms of external interference. The fact that circles with greater and broad information, an opportunity for a wide informational intervention in open societies. This way they can identify the geopolitical, economic and cultural dynamics of the world in General. And it can lead on a global level to discriminate between societies. Of course, in such circumstances, double standards keep their existence.

As evidenced by the concentration of attention in Abu Dhabi for the above scenarios? At first glance, everything is clear, as it is about modern management practices. But the deeper approach reveals, that in all cases, the factor information is Central. And that in itself already justifies the leading role of certain forces. So, obtaining, distributing, disseminating and updating information requires a different center.

At the approach through the prism of these provisions binding in international summit of world leadership by the year 2050, three scenarios thought-provoking. There are a number of geopolitical issues. For example, how can resolve the problem of leadership in the world? Is there any prospect of a multipolar model of the world? If we are talking about leadership in the context of the new rules States, which traditionally played a leading role, where will the boundaries for the "regional leaders"?

The list of questions goes on. But the main thing is that till now there are no approaches that serve to create a new world order based on justice. It becomes obvious that developed countries, using political, scientific, technological and management advantages, in the search of the optimal ways for a more effective impact on other States. Hardly a way to solve global problems. However, there is no doubt that humanity actually needs new ways of governance. The summit in Abu Dhabi has a value in this plane.

There is still the question of how effective can be these scenarios in terms of the elimination of strife in different regions of the world. If these problems are resolved, it will be difficult to make categorical judgments on the possibility of implementation on an international scale of the new political order. It becomes obvious that mankind in General are unable to identify ways out of this difficult situation.

This situation confirms that the tense struggle between the superpowers will continue. On a regional scale this means that the issue of conflict will remain valid. In the face of contradictions to speak of systematic and consistent development at the global level is very risky.


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