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Zbigniew Brzezinski: the contours of a new world order
Material posted: Arzumanyan Rach'yaPublication date: 25-10-2011

Speech by Zbigniew Brzezinski, delivered October 14, 2011 in Normandy at the time of receiving the award, Alexis de Tocqueville, deserves attention[1]. The award was presented by former French President Valery Giscard d'estaing, who heads the jury. In the beginning of the speech, Brzezinski gives a tribute to Alexis Him, French historian, sociologist and politician, which stay in the United States in 1831-32гг. resulted in writing the classic work "democracy in America" .

1. Abstract of the presentation

In the beginning of the speech, Brzezinski gives a tribute to Alexis Him, French historian, sociologist and politician, which stay in the United States in 1831-32гг. resulted in writing the classic work "democracy in America"[2]. To understand America you need to know Tocqueville, who 175 years ago, foresaw the potential threat to American society, Brzezinski says. According to Joseph Stiglitz (Joseph Stiglitz), Nobel laureate in Economics, Him managed to understand the main source of peculiar genius of American society, which he called "the properly understood self-interest" (self-interest properly understood). Early America and Americans take into account and take into account the selfishness of others, understanding that respect for the common good is a precondition for personal well-being of everyone.

Modern America has changed and has become a country of striking social contrasts. Despite democracy the American society consists of a super-rich minority, of which the highest government officials and politicians, and a growing majority of have-nots. "Today in America the top 1% of the richest families owns about 35% of the total national wealth, while the bottom 90% - about 25%".

In addition, the U.S. remained a superpower, struggling to cope with spiraling out of control global changes on the socio - economic and geopolitical arenas. "Socially and economically the world has turned into a playing field where increasingly prevalent three dynamic reality: globalization, "internetization" and deregulation". Financial sphere, becoming mostly speculative in nature and not related to technological innovation or new forms of work, got the ability to instantly create wealth on an unprecedented scale. Investment, movement of labour in the international arena are dictated mostly materialistic selfishness rather than national interests.

In the political arena, the concentration of global power in the hands of a few States with enormous economic and military capabilities, is accompanied by dispersion of political power. The West is in decline, due to the lack of will to unity, the power of the East grows, in the face of selfish rivalry and potential conflicts between major States. "Neither the national government nor the regional settlement is not able to provide effective discipline, not to mention the control of an Autonomous economic-financial of the universe, generated by globalization, "internetization" and deregulation". There is a gap between political and socio-economic spheres on a global level.

The crisis of global power is complicated by the phenomenon of mass political awakening which Brzezinski attaches special importance[3]. Communication and the interrelatedness and interdependence of the global world, superimposed on the young and often unemployed population of underdeveloped countries, easily mobilityweek and politically troubled students developed, creates the preconditions for protests against the rich part of humanity and the privileged corruption of governments. "The resentment of power and privilege unleashes populist passion, the explosive potential which is fraught with international unrest large scale."

America's ability to meet the challenges of a changing world is hampered by socio-political feature of American society, which he prophetically warned Tocqueville. Talk about public ignorance, the consequence of which, in particular, is becoming decrease quality of political leadership. "I don't know of another country, which would meNisha independence of thought and real freedom of debate than in America," writes Tocqueville. And yet. "Some nasty effects in the American national character is obvious. I think that the presence of a small number of prominent personalities in the political scene is the result of ever-increasing despotism of the American majority." Today "despotism" and "ignorance" of the American society lead to the fact that it does not wish to follow the path of short-term and fairly distributed social victims, in exchange for long-term recovery (restoration) of welfare and national wealth.

Preparation and use of political medicine, needed America, hampered by the narrowness and selfishness of political parties, a phenomenon that Tocqueville in 1835 called "small parties". He wrote: "their character is impregnated by selfishness, which obviously colors every action ... their language is harsh and progress is timid and surgestion. The tools that they use causes contempt and pity..." to overcome the stalemate politically, the necessary breadth of Outlook and restore national confidence. This, in turn, "requires a broad strategic VIDenia and feel of the historic goals that can be achieved, ultimately, through getting the principle of "correctly understood egoism" global recognition" - says Brzezinski.

Curbing financial speculation, which have both economic and social consequences, requires the immediate organization wide and tight political oversight – national and international. "Effective global political cooperation can be the result of a broad consensus-driven regionally and, ultimately, global basis. For the U.S., Brzezinski is convinced that this means an ambitious attempt to freshen up, to give new meaning to the notion of "Atlantic community", which in the short term should include the US and the EU, and in the long term, Russia and Turkey. What America and Europe need each other, share the same political values, obviously. However ambitious, ambitious in strategicandDenia should not be limited by them. In upcoming book, Brzezinski argues that in the long term – over the next 2-3 decades - in the project "Atlantic community" can be enabled and Russia.

Closing the first part of "Democracy in America" Tocqueville writes. "Today, two great Nations of the earth can move forward to the same fate, destiny, from different starting points: the Russians and Anglo-Americans ...". However, he points to the dramatic contrast that exists between them. The Americans, relying on "freedom as the primary mode of action" (freedomastheirmainmodeofaction), the principle of selfishness and common sense, win and civilizat your huge continent, overcoming natural obstacles in building a strong American democracy. Russians with "servility" (slavishobedience), as the main mode of action, can use "the sword of the warrior", under the command of "one person" to conquer civilization. And he further warns that although "the starting point and paths differ, but each of them led to some secret providential plan to take sometime in the future in their hands the fate of half the world".

It is now clear, Brzezinski says that the fate of Russia now is not how to control "half the world". Russia today is facing the challenge of survival in conditions of internal stagnation and depopulation on the background of growing East and let them confused, but the rich West. And that is why Western policy of reassurance to Ukraine's closer ties with the EU is a critical precursor to stimulate Russia to as near as possible to engage the West. "It can't happen under Putin, but the internal preconditions for democratic evolution in Russia are growing and, from my point of view, ultimately outweigh. Russians today are open to the world as never before".

Revitalizing and expanding the Atlantic community connected with Turkey, Brzezinski says, and cites three key reasons why she should see their future in the West. First, internal democratization and expanding modernization has made it evident that these processes are compatible with Islam. Secondly, the commitment to peaceful cooperation with middle Eastern neighbors is consistent with the security interests of the West in the region. Thirdly, Turkey being increasingly Western, secular yet Islamic country, could undermine the position of Islamic extremism and increasing regional stability in Central Asia, to pursue not only their own interests but also helping Europe and Russia.

Indirectly important for Europe may be a long-term role of America in the formation of the new East, which should be built on the involvement of China and Japan to do more global roles, and the manners of conflict between them. U.S. policy on the new East should not focus solely on China and a special partnership with Beijing. The objective should be the restoration of friendly relations between Japan - democracy and the main partner and ally of America in the Pacific - and China, as well as mitigate the growing rivalry between China and India. Only through a balanced approach and avoidance of conflicts Asian mainland USA will be able to ensure long-term stability in the region.

In the end, completes his speech Brzezinski, the global role of America in the 21st century depends on the ability of American society to meet the expectations of Tocqueville. "Like him, I believe in the powerful redemptive potential of American democracy and, especially, the universal relevance of a politically awakening world the revolutionary concept of "correctly understood egoism of early America".

2. A brief analysis

The analysis of the ideas and approaches expressed by Brzezinski, requires the understanding that he belongs to the personalities and interests that don't just formulate and give voice to the geopolitical and geostrategic trends, but shape them. Brzezinski not only inform the world community about the developments in the geopolitical arena, how much is involved in the formation of this arena. Scientific, political, informational and other activities of Brzezinski this is the case, when conducting the border between word and deed, information event and the reality that it serves to display, it becomes more than difficult. In this situation, arguments about the feasibility of the proposed inandDenia peace be incorrect, since the ideas expressed by Brzezinski, can initiate processes and activities that ultimately will lead to the implementation of these ideas in life.

This assessment requires a responsible attitude to Express ideas, regardless of how they look implemented today, right now. The line between impossible and improbable in this kind of texts becomes unclear and difficult to distinguish. It is even more true if we take into account the turbulent nature of the modern era and the historical experience of recent decades when it became a political reality scenarios that were previously assessed as impossible. In such conditions it is necessary to appeal not to the experience and knowledge of the expert and the expert community, based on which are arranged the short term, but strategic intuition and long-term trends.

Brzezinski says about adding to the two main phenomena of the current era of globalization and Networks (connectedness) one – deregulation. West had previously admitted that the process of globalization has acquired an internal logic and are extremely eager to get out of control when talking about the existence of political power exercising control over them, is not necessary. Today, there is also deregulation, partial loss of control over socio-economic and financial spheres of the Western political elite, when you need a conscious effort not to lose already and political control over the processes. Extra sharpness creates high political activity and dynamism of the international environment - "global political awakening".

Brzezinski recognizes that there are sharp socio-economic contrasts and ruptures in Western society and the world at large. The concentration of socio-economic and financial power on a global scale occurs on the background of weakening traditional political levers of regulation of social processes. The language of Marxist political economy, which is becoming more and more popular among researchers trying to find a language and a methodology for describing the unfolding global crisis – there is a clear mismatch between the political superstructure and the socio-economic basis of Western and global societies. And in the spirit of the Marxist analysis of the roots of the current mismatch of the basis and superstructure Brzezinski sees, including, in the greed and selfishness of the political class and the over-concentration of national wealth in the hands of more than a limited circle of actors. The language of the theory of complex adaptive systems the West and the global political system have come close enough to the edge of chaos and crisis instability, when a small and unintended effects and fluctuations can lead to unpredictable results and stall system in the state of chaos in which to talk about management and control in the traditional sense.

Realizing the seriousness of the call, Brzezinski offers a number of measures to take the global political system away from the edge and appealing to the "mind and will" of the political elite of the West. However, the proposed measures and the "medicine" is so radical that it is necessary to speak not only about transformation, but the creation of a new - already the global political superstructure. In fact, Brzezinski offers a super-rich ruling class to accept the need for "revolution from above", the result of which should be the formation of a new political elite. She should form a response to global challenges, through the development of new structures and the mechanism of control and management, probably within mondialistic projects fairly well described in the literature. The formation of a new superstructure is proposed to be based on "consensus" national elites and regional centers of power. Moreover, Brzezinski does not specify methods to achieve such a consensus, which does not have to be voluntary or peaceful. But this is the only way to curb global in scope, scale and depth of the processes occurring in the socio-economic basis of global society and to avoid revolutionary change of elites.

Understanding the seriousness of the challenge faced by the current political elite of the West does not mean that it will be able to voluntarily abandon the usual inandDenia world. However, the design of the call in terms of life and death in the state, according to Brzezinski, shake Western elite, and the generation of the response will lead to her recovery. Statement of identity, class, elites on the brink between life and death is quite effective and well tested method. "When a man knows he will be hanged ... it concentrates his wonderful mind," said Samuel Johnson (Samuel Johnson), poet, essayist, literary critic and editor of the 18th century, made a major contribution to English literature[4]. Lethal threat needs to revive the West, to allow its elite to unite with the unconditional dominance of the United States. To survive and remain dominant in the global world, the political elite of the West should also be global and unified. Such Association is possible through giving to the principle of "correctly understood egoism" of the global dimension, involving the ability of the new political elite to limit a narrow, selfish egoism the public interest and the common good. The question that should be attributed to the narrow and selfish egotism remains open. For example, will recognized a narrow "national egoism", when national elites will be asked to give up part of their sovereignty in the name of global interests and values.

For Eurasia and post-Soviet geopolitical interest aspects of the proposed VIDenia future. The transformation of the Atlantic community in global power will require the inclusion in yourself and the inevitable geopolitical "reformatting" of Russia and Turkey. Brzezinski proposes that Russia be a part of a new Atlantic community, the price of the final refusal from an independent geopolitical role, ambitions and destiny that shaped the Russian state and Russian nation for the past centuries. Turkey, becoming part of the West, gets the opportunity to expand its sphere of influence the greater middle East and Central Asia, i.e. including at the expense of the shrinking of Russia's sphere of influence. Thus, there is an attempt to repeat on a global level, which leads Europe in relation to Russia and Turkey in the past centuries, when through the involvement of two non-European powers in European policy maintains a balance and equilibrium in Europe. In the 21st century the role of Western Europe assumes Atlantic community led by the United States, and the balance, traditionally, is provided by Russia and Turkey, and possibly China and India.

Even a cursory glance at the political field of Russia speaks about the presence of politicians and political forces, for whom such a vision of the future of Russia is acceptable. The invitation of Mr. Brzezinski in 2011, "Global policy Forum" in Yaroslavl and his speech on it can serve as evidence of the justice of this conclusion. Project "Eurasian Union", voiced by Putin shows that Russia is present and another VBarcelona Russia and Eurasia as a whole. Judging by the surge of works in the Western press, the "Eurasian project" caught the West by surprise. However, after the first, extremely negative judgments and conclusions Western elites currently generates an adequate response to this initiative. According to Brzezinski critically important links in the survival of Russia as a geopolitical power center is Ukraine, and the presence of the Russian leader, "one person" who will be able to lead and guide the process of restoring the Russian geopolitical power. As such, the fear of the West today calls Putin, whose presence, according to Brzezinski, makes impossible the realization of the first scenario of Russia's future.

The question of possible third scenario in which Russia and Turkey form a Union requires a thoughtful analysis. In any case, the Union Bolshevik Russia and Kemalist Turkey in the early 20th century was achieved at the expense of assets of the Russian Empire and the narrowing of the sphere of Russian interests in the South. Can the Russia of the 21st century to once again go to "maneuvering" has assets of the USSR and the further compression of the scope of their interests, the issues that require a calm and balanced analysis, including the Armenian expert community.

Mr. Brzezinski does not affect and does not discuss the role of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel in the new world picture, which also requires evaluation and interpretation. Perhaps these power centers don't fit the project and therefore will have to abandon their ambitions in the 21st century. Recent developments on the arc of instability and in particular the Arab spring, show that the West has enough forces and opportunities to convince countries and peoples in need to abandon certain ambitions.

There is no doubt in all scenarios of this kind is the interrelatedness and interdependence of Russia and the West. Both geopolitical center of the crisis and must be transformed, thus newly defining and shaping world history. However, if earlier it was a geopolitical confrontation, which exclude the final victory, in this case the 21st century talking about "the last fight", - "life" or "death" and "the end of history" for one of the centers - the West or Russia. This view and this interpretation, according to Brzezinski, should facilitate the mobilization of the Western elites, and will allow to reach consensus, as new challenges are clothed in old and traditional forms of deadly opposition of a civilized West and barbaric Russia. The new birth of the West must be through Russia and through Russia. What could be the response of Russia to such an unequivocal spiritual, intellectual, and political challenge – will show the near future.



[1] “Zbigniew Brzezinski by Receives Jury du Prix Tocqueville Prize,” by Zbigniew K. Brzezinski by, Oct 14, 2011
24 October 2011. <http://csis.org/publication/zbigniew-brzezinskis-de-tocqueville-prize-speech>

[2] Tocqueville, Alexis de. Democracy in America. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 2000.
24 October 2011. <http://www.livrariaonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Alexis-de-Tocqueville-Democracy-in-America.pdf>

[3] Brzezinski By, Zbigniew. “The Global Political Awakening,” The New York Times, December 16, 2008.
24 October 2011. <http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/16/opinion/16iht-YEbrzezinski.1.18730411.html

[4] Boswell, James. The Life of Samuel Johnson, LL.D. Great Books of the Western World, vol. 44. Chicago: Encyclopædia Britannica, 1952. (Reprinted in the 1990 edition as vol. 41.), p. 351.

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