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Famine, pestilence, death, and deformation of railway tracks
Material posted: Publication date: 13-09-2018
The Ministry of environment has prepared a detailed forecast of how global climate change will affect the lives of Russians. The picture is daunting: in addition to the growth in the number of tornadoes, floods and mudflows Russians should prepare for epidemics, crop failures, insect pests. Danger threatens and infrastructure — the Agency warns about the possible destruction of Railways and stopping power. However, the respondents ' b ' experts do not fully agree with the Ministry. A Kommersant source in the government considers the report of the evidence of intent Ministry of natural resources become the main developer and coordinator of the climate policy of the Russian Federation.

A list of climate threats, "b" found in the draft annual report to Ministry of environment "On environmental protection". The paper reported that on the territory of Russia is warming faster than the planetary average: mean annual temperature over the period from 1976 to 2017 grew by 0.45°C per decade. The world average, this figure is much lower — 0,18°C. in 2017 became the fourth among the warmest in the country since 1936. Last year in Russia has occurred 907 natural hazards, including 378 phenomena caused considerable damage to sectors of the economy and livelihoods of the population. MOE in 2017 recorded 42 natural disaster (22.2% less than in 2016), which killed 33 people and injured nearly 34 thousand compared with the year 2016 the number of victims increased 11 times.

The Ministry of natural resources noted a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions largely caused by "economic growth and population growth". "This led to unprecedented, at least over the last 800 thousand years, levels of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide",— the document says. The report is of great notes that with a probability of more than 95% of anthropogenic impact are the main cause of warming.

After summarizing the Agency presented a forecast of "possible observed or expected harm" from climate change on the territory of Russia. A list of the Ministry of natural resources consists of ten sections: "Health", "Water", "Crop", etc In each one lists the specific climate threats and stated "particularly vulnerable" regions of the Russian Federation. So, in the South of Russia and in southern Siberia, the Agency forecasts decrease in the volume of water in lowland rivers, "will reduce water availability for the population and objects of economy." Affected, and agriculture is in many regions expected "the increase in the frequency and magnitude of droughts" and "partial (sometimes almost complete) destruction of harvest." Possible Caspian sea level rise will lead to flooding of coastal areas and settlements, and the melting of permafrost will result in "the destruction of places of burial of hazardous chemicals, biological and radioactive substances".

In the section "Technical system," the Agency warns of "accelerated aging buildings, highways" for "enhance the damaging effects of temperature-humidity deformations". This is especially true for the European part of Russia, South Siberia and Primorye. "On the bearing capacity of roads affected by the amount of winter cycles of freezing and thawing of the roadway,— told "Kommersant" Director of the Institute for transport Economics and transport policy HSE Mikhail Blinkin.— They act on the road as flexion-extension of the wire, destroying it." The expert believes that the warming is unlikely to increase the impact of climate on the Russian roads. However, the General Director of Association of territorial bodies of management of highways rador Igor Starygin believes that the forecast is still worth thinking about: "Sometimes after a relatively warm winter we received in the spring considerable destruction of the roadway".

In the same section, the Agency forecasts in the southern regions of Russia "increase in the number of accidents related to the deformation of railway tracks at extremely high temperatures". This situation is indeed possible, agreed to head the research laboratory "Hybrid nanostructured materials" MISIS Alexander Komissarov. He recalled that an increase of metal temperature by 7°C every kilometer of the track is lengthened by 80 mm. "If the intersection of the railroad tracks because of this closeness, the compressive force can reach values of more than 60 tons that the external impact and alternating loads can lead to significant strain,"— said the expert Mrs. Possible temperature fluctuations are taken into account in the construction of Railways, he said, but it is necessary to specify what the maximum values were laid by the engineers of the past. "Unless we begin building new railroad tracks, it is necessary to consider climate change and to lay the increase in the amplitude of temperature fluctuations," warned Mr. Commissioners.

In the subsection "public Health" Ministry of natural resources forecasts for the Central and southern regions of Russia the increase in mortality of citizens in the waves of heat, "especially pronounced in the group aged 65 years and people suffering from cardiovascular diseases". Also possible increase of morbidity caused by acute intestinal and parasitic infections. "In warm weather products faster breed bacteria, so increasing the number of intestinal diseases is logical,— says MD, Professor, head of Department of infectious diseases and epidemiology rnsmu. N. I. Pirogov Vladimir Nikiforov.— But if the region is not distributed to a specific pathogen, only a high temperature will not lead to its appearance. For example, we have now almost no dysentery — it has virtually eradicated anti-epidemic measures and the use of adequate antibiotic therapy. In those regions where it is not, it appears, no matter how the temperature rose. If all sanitary-epidemiological norms are adhered to, then nothing will happen,"— said the expert. Forecast office to increase the incidence of anthrax, leptospirosis and hemorrhagic fevers Vladimir Nikiforov called "fantasy".

Warming will lead to the expansion of the habitats of pests that will destroy the forests in the North of the European part of Russia, South of Eastern Siberia and Yakutia, predicts the Ministry of environment. The area of foci of pests and diseases of forests on the territory of the Siberian Federal district is 1492,3 thousand hectares — 42.1 percent of the total area of foci in Russia, told “Kommersant” in the FFA. In the southern Federal district the centers are 858,4 thousand hectares (24.2 per cent of the total area), in the Urals — 457,8 thousand hectares (13%). "Once eating of fir and spruce in 30-50% leads to the destruction of plantations, pine plantations when grazing of the needles by 50-75% over the following two years also die,— added in Department.— Mass tree mortality leads to an increase in fire danger, erosion of forest and orthopedically base, the development of foci of stem pests, change of conditions of dwelling of animals and plants".

"The report refers to state action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which are now mostly climate change— said the head of energy programs of the Department, "Greenpeace Russia" Vladimir Chuprov.— We see in the report a large list of adopted normative-legal acts, but it does not give us the answer to the question, what specific results of these acts achieved". In his opinion, the climate change problem can not be solved without switching to renewable energy sources (RES): "According to Rosstat, the share of electricity based on renewable energy in the total volume of electricity produced in 2017, our country was 0.23% — here's the result."

Kommersant's source in the government said that earlier in its annual reports to the Ministry are not paid such attention to the subject of climate and the effects of its changes. "Probably, the Ministry intends to become a major developer and coordinator of climate policy— said the interlocutor of Kommersant.— And to do this, prepare a base, if necessary, to refer to your report". According to him, the security Council "has given the Commission to designate a focal point, this topic Federal authority, but the assignment and shook". Now these functions are divided between the Ministry of environment, Ministry of economy, Ministry of energy and Ministry of industry and trade. This is the Ministry of environment should in the first quarter of 2019 to send Vladimir Putin the report of the government about the expediency of Russia's ratification of the Paris climate agreement.

Alexander Chernykh, Anna Vasilyeva, Alexei Shapovalov


Tags: Russia , climate

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