Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / Causes and consequences of abnormal heat in summer 2010 / Articles
Climatic justice: as the world relied on a net energy
Material posted: Publication date: 28-12-2015
The world was divided into conferences of the UN on climate change: developing countries acquired legitimate right to use all possible energy resources, and the developed world decided to make pure power available.

«Climatic Nuremberg»

On termination of Conference of the United Nations on climate fluctuation in Paris (COP-21) on December, 12th the prime minister of India Narendra Modi has written in "Tvittere" that climatic justice has won.

As this word combination normally understand that the basic contribution to growth of concentration of hotbed gases to atmosphere was introduced by developed countries, having paid a damage for environment for the rough industrial development. Now the rich countries have attended to a problem of climate fluctuation and want to impose nature protection subjects to the countries which only leave on a trajectory of long-term economic growth. Justice, according to developing states, should consist in forcing the rich countries to be divided by the riches and not to force developing states to endow rates of the development for the sake of the climatic purposes.

This idea also has won Paris. No numerical values of reducing of emissions in the final document are designated, all countries should move on the way dekarbonizatsii the rates, time in five years toughening own target parametres. Anybody on itself(himself) has not taken stringent obligations also anybody has imposed to nobody. Have agreed all together to limit growth of global temperature in two degrees and to be aimed to one and a half degrees.

And still the Indian prime minister is not quite sincere. At many representatives of the advanced world the aspiration was rigid to fix concept «climatic justice» in summary documents. To make it did not leave, as the question on justice was put in an accusatory key, even words about «climatic Nuremberg» sounded. Developed countries have preferred to leave from such discussions, having promised the financial development aid on adaptation to climate fluctuations. These promises also have not been rigidly fixed in the form of financial liabilities of the particular countries, therefore it does not concern restoration of justice.

Summary position of developing states: economic development initially, and reducing of emissions should be result of growth of economy. Strategy of the advanced world: it is better not to spend billions for senseless attempts to right a wrong, and with the doubled force to advance technologies of renewed power (VIE) that they became effective and accessible that at growth of energy needs developing states had real nizkouglerodnaja an alternative to building of carbonic stations.

The Chinese turn

China acting now as one of leaders of extirpation for cleanliness of air, in the first decade of a new century has alone executed one of the accepted United Nations of the purposes of development of a millenium - to reduce abject poverty level twice. China has made it, having supplied more than semibillion citizens with access to an electricity - mainly by means of carbonic generation. And when as a result China left in world leaders on a volume of emissions of hotbed gases, and in the largest cities of the country there was nothing to breathe, the ecological summons left on the foreground.

Thus China consumes half of world coal mining. Movement towards pure power assumes two ways: transition to gas or development of renewed power (atomic energetics we will leave while behind brackets, there the problems and prospects). In interests of Russia there would be, of course, a first version, but all will be solved by economic feasibility.

Now China is in the lead in the world on a volume of investments into pure power technologies. According to the newspaper «Zhenmin zhibao», in the third quarter 2015 the Chinese investments into «green power» have grown on 5 % and have constituted $26,7 billion For comparison: in Europe this parametre has constituted $5,8 mlrd, and in the USA - $13,4 billion Per 2014 China has enclosed in pure power of $89,5 mlrd - 29 % of a world volume of investments.

India, which third of population has no access to an electricity, also is one of the largest world emitters of hotbed gases though while because of bureaucracy, corruption, monopolism in carbonic industry and a general disorganisation has not started yet mass carbonic electrification of the country. And now India has a chance to pass stage of dirty, carbonic development of the power, directly having passed to use of renewed energy if world technological leaders repay a debt to the advanced world and will make pure power accessible.

Change of the American priorities

The USA are not the world leader under investments into renewed power, but become the legislator of a fashion in this sphere. On the eve of climatic negotiations in Paris Barack Obama has signed the Plan of pure power (Clean Power Plan), called to supply transition from coal use in power to consumption of gas and development VIE. The plan assumes that States will accept the plans which accomplishment will supply decrease by 2030 of emission of hotbed gases on 870 million t CO2, or on 32 % from level of 2005.

It is a maximum, possible at solidary actions of states, but the official purposes delivered by the US president, too rather impressing: to reduce carbon dioxidal emissions by 2025 on 26-28 % from level of 2005, to increase share VIE (except HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION) in corresponding power balances to 20 % by 2030, thus twice having increased by this year electric power production.

Taken place in the beginning of December budgetary exchange assumes that the 40-year-old prohibition on export of crude oil from the USA will be removed in exchange for support of different initiatives of Obama, including federal part of the Plan of pure power - tax privileges for wind and solar power.

Many states, rukovodimye republicans, are off-the shelf to challenge in court of the initiative of Obama, but already accepted budgetary arrangements mean that the future US president has appeared whoever, it will be forced to go by the way of development of pure power.

Is at Obama and influential supporters. The governor of California Dzherri Brown considers that its staff should set an example and support other states and the countries in their actions on prevention of climate fluctuations.

It not empty bravado. In October, 2015 legislators of California have accepted, and the governor has signed the staff law according to which to 2030 half of electricity in staff it should be developed from renewed sources, and power efficiency of buildings should be doubled to this term. Besides, Dzherri Brown has urged to reduce twice within 15 years gasoline consumption in staff.

On gasoline attack goes on the other hand: after 2030 California makes dispositions to prohibit sale of cars with combustion engines and gasoline consumption will be reduced estestvennym in the image. The final decision on quotas on sale of electromobiles in California will be accepted in the middle of 2016, but position Tesla Motors - the company which are producing exclusively electromobiles and being the largest employer in motor industry of California will be key.

In a year gigafabrika Tesla in Nevada will begin mass production lithium-ionic of storage batteries for cars, private houses and public utilities. And cost of storage of the electric power will essentially be reduced that will give an additional momentum to development of the allocated renewed power.

Slate revolution in the USA has given powerful spur to development of all without an exception of power technologies. It has completely changed an alignment of forces in the world power markets. Extraction growth occurred at fall of the world prices and advancing decrease in costs. It is possible to consider enhancement of technologies of renewed power as a direct consequence of this process: there, where it is possible to receive desirable result more cheaply and more effectively, it will be made. It is possible to assume that the role of Russia as «power superstate», the largest world supplier of fossil power resources will be steadily reduced. The world passes to hi-tech pure development.

Nikolay Ivanov



RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics