Less than a month, the Bank of Russia announced a reorganization of the two large banks via a new mechanism improvement — Fund consolidation of the banking sector. The amount of funds required to support "Discovery" in August was estimated at 200-400 billion rubles. And on Thursday, September 21, the Chairman of the Central Bank Vasily Pozdyshev stated that additional formation of reserves of the Bank, which he turned to the controller with a request for rehabilitation, it is necessary 250-350 billion.
One of the grounds for the introduction temporary administration in the Bank (this was also announced on Thursday, September 21) Pozdyshev call made on its review of the injunction on the additional formation of reserves for possible loan losses. According to the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, the implementation of this regulation has reduced the Bank's capital by more than 30%.
"The reduction of the Bank's capital by more than 30% compared to its maximum value over the last 12 months with simultaneous violation of one of the mandatory standards of the Central Bank is the basis for the introduction of an interim administration," — explains the legality of this decision of the Central Bank, the lawyer, the expert in the field of banking law Igor Dubov.
In Bank of Russia declare that they intend to spend on rehabilitation of the Bank a minimum of means. According to Pozdyshev, the Central Bank is studying the possibility of transfer of control of the Bank were not encumbered assets of the group Safmar owned by the family Gutseriev — Shishanov. In b & n confirm this. "We are talking about companies kreditovanija in the Bin. The names of the assets are not reported," — said in a statement. In the group Safmar did not respond to a request RBC.
Main assets of the group Safmar are concentrated in real estate, retail, oil and construction business (see chart). In 2016, its revenue just from the rental of real estate amounted to $495 million, and the portfolio included more than 3 million sq m of retail, office and warehouse space, estimated by Forbes magazine. Income from tenants provided the gutserievs — shishkhanova the fourth largest investor in the country.
The acquisition of the retail business, which cost the group approximately 80-85 billion rubles, provided it absolute leadership in the segment of sales of home appliances and electronics. According to its own estimates "Samara" at the end of 2016, "Eldorado" and "M. Video" together (in the case of their Association in 2016) would be 26.5% of home appliances market by revenue, or 296 billion rubles.
However, most of these and other attractive assets the Bank is almost irrelevant. In particular, all real estate transactions were made as to the owners ' funds and debt, says RBC a source close to the group. With the purchase of highly liquid assets used third-party financing of large banks — Sberbank, Alfa Bank, VTB, and those assets are the collateral.
According to the similar scheme of crediting of the key businesses in third-party banks works and RussNeft (anchor creditor — VTB), told RBC Vice-President of rating Agency Moody's Denis Perevezentsev.
Without loans from the Bank, as well as "any financial participation" works "M. Video", said RBC a source in the retail company.
Majority of high-quality assets in real estate that constitute the core of this business group, were bought using loans in major banks, mainly in Sberbank, confirmed partner of Colliers International Stanislav Bibik. "Given the fact that these loans are now serviced in a timely manner, the risk that the problems of the Bank will affect them, now minimal," he said.
The partner of legal Bureau "Padva and Epstein" Anton Babenko believes that the history of acquisition of assets "Samara" can become the subject of study of the reorganization of the Bank. "But most of the recovery of assets from third parties not formally associated with the debtors or their shareholders, the process is hopeless," he said.
Because the most attractive assets of the group Safmar likely never go into the Bank, agree and partner of the law firm TertychnyAgabalyan Ivan tertychnyy. "The Central Bank enables the shareholders of the Bank to remain in Russia without the threat of criminal action if they give up good assets to the Bank — he interpreterpath statement. But from a legal point of view of the return mechanism in the reorganized Bank of good assets that are not directly connected to the Bank, no. This is the first public story in which the shareholders of the troubled Bank agreed to the transfer of good assets of the Central Bank. However, as this story never legally enshrined, there is a risk that it will remain all-level agreements."
Is there a risk of inflation?
The Bank bailout without the seizure of assets of the owners gave rise to talk about the money issue, the Central Bank and its possible impact on the parameters of the real economy, such as inflation or exchange rates. Ex-Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin publicly wondered whether Central Bank to print money to rescue banks.
Indeed, in its purest form we are talking about the issue, but it is unlikely to be noticeable on the scale of the system, follows from the statements of officials of the Central Bank. In theory any impact to the same inflation that is now at a record low of 3.3%, could occur, if the funds provided by rehabilitated institutions, resulted in the market. But "these funds are under the control of the Central Bank, that is, they will be used on the currency market, the consumer market", he assured in an interview with Reuters, Chairman of the Central Bank Vasily Pozdyshev.
Concern about the inflationary impact is not very justified, since there is no active transformation of Bank liabilities into loans, agrees chief economist at Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova. If the banking system was engaged in an active lending, the problem would have been worse, since the deposits are gone from the "Discovery" of the Bank and other banks, would be quickly transformed into credit resources, she explained. "In this case, the Central Bank, replacing these deposits could unleash inflation, economist said. But since the past deposits, likely deposited in the Central Bank, the inflationary consequences, if they do it will be very modest".
Nevertheless, the problems in the banking system remain, and this worries experts. First of all, they talk about the problems in banking supervision. "This is evidenced by the statistics on reorganized banks earlier, preliminary figures announced by the Central Bank, necessary for the restoration of an asset group is "Open" and the Bank", — says a senior Director for analysis of financial institutions Fitch Ratings Alexander Danilov.
One of the problems of Discovery and of the Bank — acquisition of assets at an inflated price and lending to related parties, and not slowing the economy or the devaluation of the ruble, adds the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai. He notes that most of the cases of revocation of a license or enter a temporary administration to the Bank accompanied by a review of the Central Bank that the Bank statements is not true: assets of banks adequately reflect their value or quality, resulting in credit institutions formed hole in the capital. "The same picture may be in other banks. CB receives each year a number of measures to tighten supervision of banks, but while the problems remain," says the analyst.
The private banking system in Russia is experiencing very serious problems with capital and liquidity, and at the moment closed is much less than half of them, says Director of economic programs of the Moscow Carnegie center Andrei Movchan. "Now we are talking about investing by the state in the banking system 1.5 trillion rubles, and another 3-4 trillion RUB will have to invest in the future until the whole system is in some sense not be sanitized, with the exception of a very small number of private banks. It is clear that, the farther we go, the more you have to spend," he concludes.
Marina Bozhko, Julia Titova, Ivan Tkachev
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