Today, often in Patriotic circles refers to the desire of the Anglo-Saxon world to embroil us in a war with China. It is very likely. In this regard, often heard from various local experts, that the Chinese we're about to cast aside the hats, it takes all of Siberia and other catastrophic predictions. Can this be?
I served 3 year term on the far East border troops, learned patriotism on the example of the heroes of Damanski, but I think devil is not so terrible...
As you know, China, except that he is the world factory, famous for the huge population of about 1.347 billion people (some techs don't bother talking about 1.5 billion Russian – 145 million people as a statistical error) and the average density is 140 people per 1 sq km) and a fairly decent area (3rd in the world after Russia and Canada – 9.56 million sq.km).
There's the bike, or orderly, or even assistant Suvorov, recording the words of Alexander Vasilyevich report to the capital about another victory, surprised the inflated figures of dead enemy soldiers. What Suvorov said, "And that their adversaries to spare!"
Deceptively large China
About the population
The Chinese, followed by Indians, Indonesians, and indeed all of Asia clearly caught that the population of their countries – same strategic weapons like bombs and missiles.
Nobody really can say what actually the demographic situation in Asia, in this case, in China. All data is estimated, in the best case, information themselves as Chinese (the latest census in 2000).
Surprisingly, despite ongoing last 20 years government policy aimed at population control (one – child), the population is still growing by 12 million a year, experts say, because of the huge base (i.e. initial) numbers.
I'm definitely not a demographer, but 2+2=4. If you have 100 people had died during the year two, was born one, in a year 99. If 100 million or 1 billion, and the ratio of the born and dying is negative, then what is the difference in the initial number, the result will be negative. The Chinese demographic experts, paradoxically, the positive!
A very confusing question. For example, in the monograph by Korotaev, Malkov, and Khalturina "Historical macro-dynamics of China" provides an interesting table:
1845 – 430 million;
1870 – 350;
1890 – 380;
1920 – 430;
1940 – 430,
1945 – 490.
I came across an old Atlas, where it was said that in 1939, i.e., before the 2nd World war, China had 350 million. You do not need to be an expert to see the huge discrepancies and the lack of any coherent system in the behavior of the Chinese population.
Then drop to 80 million in 25 years, the increase of 50 million over 30 years, no change in 20 years. The main thing – that the initial figure of 430 million taken absolutely from the ceiling, who the villains believed. But the fact like there is for 95 years from 1845 to 1940 the number of Chinese has not changed, as it was, and left.
But for the next 72 years (including the disastrous wars, famines and poverty, more than 20-year policy of containment), an increase of nearly a billion!
For example, everyone knows that the Soviet Union had lost in world of 27 million people, but few people know that the second largest loss of life – China – 20 million. Some experts (perhaps, like our Chubais) talking about 45 million And despite such horrendous losses and all kinds of deprivation from 1940 to 1945, a huge increase on 60 million! Despite the fact that, except the World was still civil in China, and in Taiwan live now 23 million people who are in the 40th year, was considered by the Chinese.
However, due to the formation of the PRC in 1949, the population of China already amounted to 550 million people. For 4 years, fled to Taiwan do not believe, and the growth is just galloping 60 million people. Then there was a cultural revolution with countless repressions and eating sparrows in the famine years, and the population grew faster and faster.
Deceptively large China
And yet, almost believe and count on the knee. 430 in 1940 It very much, of course. 430 million. Approximately half of the women (in Asia and the women even less, but let). About 200. Of them grandmothers and girls 2\3. Women have approximately 15 to 40 = 25 years, and have lived for 70. Get 70 million. We believe that China's childless and lesbians no + discount on my demographic unprofessional = 70 million childbearing women in 1940
How much had these young ladies give birth to children below 9 years of Chinese began 490 million, 15% growth? War, devastation, medicine, no, the Japanese atrocities... For science, if my memory serves me, simply to reduce the population need to be 3-3. 5 to birth. And an additional 90 million 70 million pregnant women, another 1.2 person. Physically for 9 years, 4-5 children is not easy, but possible, but....
Online writes that according to the census of 1953, 594 million, and in 1949, not 490 and 549 million Over 4 years forty peacemillion. For 13 years the population grew from 430 to 594, 164 million, more than a third. Thus, 70 million women over the age of 13 gave birth to a 3.5 each for reproduction + of about 2.5 (163:70) = 6.
Someone will object that in Russia, too, the boom was at the turn of 19-20 centuries, But in Russia at that time 20 million people the Japanese are not cut out + 20 million on Taiwan did not run away. And, returning to the table, and that hurt in the previous 100 years the Chinese well, at least 10 million increase? Then for 13 years 164 million, as the Bush, hunger and war. Oh, I almost forgot such things as the Korean war, where he died about 150 thousand of fertile Chinese men, quite funny to consider. In subsequent decades, the Chinese have been fruitful and multiply just.
I think they have their Chinese, as the fed dollars, simply draw from the air. There is no dispute, the Chinese and Indians and Indonesians a lot, still full of Nigerians, Iranians, Pakistanis. But many many different. And the Indians – well done, on time picked up the initiative.
Now a little about the area. China is big, but... Look at the administrative map of China. Is China's so-called Autonomous regions (Ara). 5, but now it's about 3: Xinjiang Uygur, Inner Mongolia and Tibet.
These three Ara the territory is respectively 1.66 million square km, of 1.19 million sq km and 1.22 million sq km, only about 4 million sq km, almost half of the territory of China! Live in these territories, respectively, to 19.6 million, 23.8 million and 2.74 million, about 46 million people, about 3% of the population of China. Of course, these areas are not the most wonderful living conditions (mountains, deserts, steppes), but no worse than Outer Mongolia or Tuva or our, for example, Kyrgyzstan or Kazakhstan.
Most Chinese live in the area between the Yangtze and yellow river and in the warm coast (South and Southeast). Speaking of Mongolia. If Inner Mongolia on the territory larger than France and Germany combined, Mongolia-Mongolia External to more Internal areas is almost 1.5 times = 1.56 million sq km Population no almost 2.7 million people (a density of 1.7 people per sq km in China, remember, 140, including the above named Ares, where the density of respectively 12, 20 and 2 persons\sq. km; in Mesopotamia under 300 people per square kilometer live, cockroaches and only, if you believe the stat. data).
Resources, for whom the Chinese supposedly goes to Siberia, risking to run into a Russian atomic bomb in Mongolia and in Kazakhstan the same, so full and there are no bombs. Moreover, why would the idea of reunification-the merging of the Mongolian people under the wing of China not to move?
Chinese in Russia 150-200 thousand people. All! The total population of Khabarovsk, Primorsky territories, Amur region and Jewish Autonomous region (about 5 million) can not be compared, of course, with the border province of Heilongjiang (38 million), but still.
However, the Mongols – sleep (the Chinese and the Russians in Mongolia together 0.1% of the population – 2 thousand somewhere), Kazakhs are also not too tight.
Deceptively large China
Fear, I think, have Burma, with its 50 million population and a fairly large area of 678 sq. km. On it hangs the same South China billion in Myanmar dictatorial regime, they're the villains of the Chinese minority (1.5 million!! people) are oppressed. And, most importantly, the equator near the coast huge and warm.
But even Burmese comrades, as the saying goes, not steamed, and we panic.
Well, okay, fear the Americans Chinese Communists in Taiwanese Affairs to restore order, but Vietnam openly run up, yells that he is not afraid about the last scuffle constant reminder of Laos with Cambodia to supervise came from a newly minted Big Brother. About the oil Islands China disputes with Vietnam and the world.
Strange Chinese. People are already on top of each other sitting, and they do their huge territory is not mastered, not to mention the weak neighbors of the type of Burma and Mongolia. But Buryatia will be attacked, there's already 150-strong expeditionary force was sent, half in Moscow somehow got stuck, someone in a warm Vladivostok, but this is nonsense, on the first call – in Siberia.
Well, perhaps, and all, in the first approximation.
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