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Yuri Tavrovsky: China and the lessons of history
Material posted: Publication date: 29-03-2018
China has embarked on the rails of the new mobilization period at the end of 2012, then newly elected to the post of General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee XI Jinping announced a plan "Chinese dream of the great revival of the Chinese nation" and outlined its implementation — 2049. Already the first five years of the movement to the target proved the realism of the plan, "comrade C" to turn China into a powerful state of our time, subject to the availability and proper application of the essential elements of mobilization: properly set strategic objectives, the choice of optimal economic models, instill discipline and order in the management layer, and society as a whole, create an atmosphere of revival of the national spirit, a favourable external environment, Held in October 2017 the XIX Congress of the CPC endorsed the outcome of the first five years of the "Chinese dream" and adopted it as a policy of the ruling party in the run up to the mid-twenty-first century. Now mobilize the "Chinese dream" will continue to gain momentum.

The current mobilization period — not the first in nearly 70-year history of the PRC. Having won a victory in the long civil war, the Communists gained a backward country, consisting of different levels of development of large areas. The Japanese left a rather developed industrial centers in the North-East, which were created based on the annexation of a new living space and create a "second Japan". There acted built by the Russian Empire Railways and ports. Light industry and foreign trade was fairly developed in the district of Shanghai. Military industry in Sichuan province and surrounding areas, which at the end of the war with the Japanese (1931-1945) remained the last stronghold of the Republic of China under the leadership of the Kuomintang and the National army headed by Chiang Kai-shek. The Communists controlled large areas in the North-West with a predominantly agrarian economy. Tibet and Xinjiang have become virtually Autonomous regions under the authority of the local military or religious figures.

To assemble the country together, to establish normal economic activities and to create an interconnected transport system — this was the minimum objective. The problem was compounded by the lack of personnel capable to develop much-needed mobilization plan, and then implement it. Mao Zedong and his entourage, getting out of their bases in poor Shaanxi province after decades of siege, had no experience of solving economic and social problems on a national scale. Illiterate peasant mass of the soldiers swept the town from which fled to Taiwan and few qualified staff of managers, engineers, scientists and technical specialists.

To keep power in the hands of the CCP and to save the country was only possible due to the choice of effective strategies, mobilize the modest resources and support allies. It is not surprising that in Beijing, although not without hesitation, chose the socialist path of development according to the Soviet model, which meant economic planning and priority development of heavy industry. The sight of Mao Zedong and his associates were standing successful experience in the mobilization of the Soviet Union before 1941, during the great Patriotic war and has already become the apparent success of the post-war reconstruction.

The choice proved correct. With the assistance of the USSR in the mid-twentieth century, China had constructed 250 large industrial enterprises, plants and other objects that are equipped with the latest equipment. 8.5 thousand Soviet specialists not only supervised the construction of the largest enterprises, but also took the place of engineers and technicians. In 1954 Moscow donated to Beijing more than 1,400 projects of industrial enterprises and more than 24 thousand sets of various scientific and technical documentation. Special attention was paid to the layout of the first five-year development plan of national economy — Chinese colleagues helped the best experts of the state planning Commission and line ministries.

The first plan was drawn up since 1951, it has lasted for several years. At this time in Beijing was a bitter intra-party fight on key issues of economic and political development, then turned bloody Korean war (1950-1953). It is not surprising that the plan for the years 1953-1957 was completed by the beginning of 1955, and it was approved in late July of the same year. However, this first experience of public policy development has been successful. The tasks of the first five-year plan was met and exceeded. Industrial production in 1957, exceeded 1952 by 141%. Newborns of heavy industry and machine building set new records — China was 60% to meet their needs in machinery. Appeared previously unavailable industry sector: automotive, tractor, aircraft.

The first five year plan was a major success — managed to lay the foundations for socialist industrialization, almost all of the jobs plan, including in the areas of individual agriculture, handicraft production, private industry and trade was done through the mobilization forces of the Chinese nation and the promotion of the USSR. The negative consequences of the Korean war, tensions in the Taiwan Strait, as well as the General hostile environment and the economic blockade by the US and its Asian allies was compensated by the "nuclear umbrella" and other forms of military assistance from the Soviet Union.

Evermobile — great leap backward

The success of the initial phase of the mobilization was so impressive that Mao Zedong and his supporters in the leadership of the Communist party conceived the plan of overmobilizes. It was called the "Great leap forward". The idea of achieving overclocking due to overvoltage of all physical and spiritual forces inherent in the Chinese spiritual tradition. It is present, for example, in the teachings of the Buddhist school of Chan (Zen), which suggests the possibility of attaining the state of Nirvana not only through the long-term improvement of fate of karma from one rebirth to another, and through the concentration of thought and instant enlightenment under the guidance of a wise mentor. "The revolutionary construction of unusual, accelerated" recommended in his writings sun Yat-sen, the first President of the Republic of China. He repeatedly noted the opportunity to catch up with and overtake the most developed countries by leapfrogging, especially considering the fact that "the Chinese nation is the greatest and the most gifted".

"A big leap", as we know, ended in failure. At the stage of overmobilizes was incorrectly set goals, and then the selected funds. Was developed a fantastic plan for the first 5 years "ten-year" industrial production in the years 1958-1962 to increase 6.5 times, agriculture — by 2.5 times. Steel production would immediately rise from 10 to 100 million tons. Record benchmarks in agriculture intended to be achieved through large-scale irrigation works and non-traditional ways of cultivation (deep plowing, for the thickening of planting rice), as well as fight against the "four pests": rats, sparrows, flies and mosquitoes.

The disastrous results of the plan "great leap forward" in industry and "people's communes" in the countryside became apparent very quickly. Few years, China experienced mass famine, the number of victims according to various estimates ranged from 20 to 45 million people. But even that followed a decade of "cultural revolution" (1966-1976), designed in particular to prevent the mass protests against the "mobilization of adventurism" of Beijing, has not destroyed the desire for a planned development of the economy. Were prepared and largely implemented five-year plans. According to the state Bureau of statistics of China, in the period from 1966 to 1976 the growth of the industry was 79%, agriculture — 53%, the national income grew by 77.4 per cent.

Mobilization with Chinese characteristics

After the death of Mao (1976) China was on the verge of chaos and collapse on the limits of the great military districts. The widow of the "great helmsman" Jiang Qing and her associates, together nicknamed the "gang of four" was going to continue the "revolutionary" experiments. Only lightning-quick seizure of power by a group of highest ranks of the army and state security prevented the slide into the abyss. But the old veterans had no plan out of a national crisis, and they returned in the power of Deng Xiaoping, comrade of the Great campaign and the civil war. During the short interval between the end of the "great leap forward" and the beginning of the cultural revolution, he together with the then head of state Liu Shaoqi tried to start economic reforms. Now the veterans simply Frenchy remembered it and provided carte Blanche for the salvation of China.

Over the years, links to the tractor factory in Jiangxi province, and several months of vague provisions in Beijing before the death of Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping thought a lot and wrote. He read the work of Nikolai Bukharin, whom I met while studying in Moscow in 1926, recalled the rapid recovery of the Soviet economy in the years of the NEP, analyzed the reasons for the success of the first Chinese five-year plan. On this basis he developed the mobilization plan "four modernizations", much like the program of the late Premier Zhou Enlai, which was approved at the session of the national people's Congress (Parliament) in 1975. Deng Xiaoping kept the focus on the socialist modernization of defense, agriculture, science and industry and did what I could not live the "great helmsman" to afford Zhou Enlai. He declared rejection of the superiority of Communist ideology and raised the shield on the slogan "practice is the sole criterion of truth". In the development of the four modernizations Deng Xiaoping put forward a more specific program of 12 points. The priority of the economy was formalized at the 3rd Plenum of the CPC Central Committee 11 convocation in December 1978. From this point begins the mobilization of the third period in the history of China. In the Chinese and world science it is called "period of reform and opening up".

Power, and at the same time the one weakness of Deng Xiaoping was his blur, the absence of rigid principles, framework, indicators. It was quite heterogeneous and the ideological basis of the reforms. Were again adopted the slogan "no Matter what color the cat is as long it catches mice". Strongly starved Chinese like came the call "get rich!" Attractive prospects promised by the slogan of creation in China "passenger", society of average prosperity. Maintaining socialist planning in the format of five, Deng Xiaoping, at the same time, not put forward a long-term national strategy with clear objectives and timetables for achieving them. Mindful of the megalomania of Mao Zedong, he chose to "cross the river from stone to stone."

Many initiatives now attributed to "the architect of Chinese reforms", were "from below" in different provinces of China, but was supported by him and fixed in the party decisions. Primarily, this was to secure the land for long term rent in peasant households. At the expense of Deng Xiaoping, the party historians have also recorded important development If Segnana, Chen Yun and other veterans. The same thing happened, for example, with the creation of special economic zones, which became the "calling card" of the Chinese reforms and their "architect". The idea of the market experiment in confined space areas adjacent to the colonial enclaves of Hong Kong and Macau, was born at si Junsuina, father of the current Chinese leader XI Jinping. After returning from a 16-year-old links, the prominent representative of the "old guard" was assigned to lead Guangdong province, the lands which remained, these tiny but prosperous colony of great Britain and Portugal. The success of the developed project of rapprochement forms of management of socialist China and capitalist Hong Kong and Macao gave rise to the prosperous city of Shenzhen and Zhuhai. But, more importantly, he convinced himself Deng Xiaoping and the initially configured critical of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, in reality convergence model, first received the name of "reform and openness", and later "socialism with Chinese characteristics".

Deng Xiaoping was well aware of their country, understand the limitations of domestic resources and the degree of its backwardness from the leading Nations. Remembering the success of the first five year plan reached with Soviet help, he could not think about finding external sources of capital and technologies, new markets and reviving the economy. Return to the allied relations with the USSR was unacceptable after the anti-Soviet hysteria of the late 60's and early 70-ies, mutual deep distrust of the Kremlin and the Ziguangge. In these conditions of intensified probing of breakthrough opportunities still existing blockade of the Western countries and establish normal relations with them. Begun during the life of Mao Zedong the convergence process, which led to a visit to Beijing in 1972, President Richard Nixon, was inhibited internal instability in China. But in January 1979, immediately after the establishment of diplomatic relations, Deng Xiaoping visited the United States. A month after this began the short but bloody war on the border of China with Vietnam. Unfortunate for China, from a military point of view, the "First socialist war" proved to the West the strategic value of Beijing and shortly thereafter, Deng Xiaoping received external support for "reform and openness".

Starting from the village, the eternal foundations of Chinese "civilization", the reforms have consistently passed on the easy, medium, and large-scale industry. Accumulated during the years of war and "troubled times" creative energy of the Chinese nation was torn out and were in need of removing the shackles. As long as the entrepreneurial impulse of millions of Chinese have not gone beyond socialism, under the leadership of the Communist party, they provided an unprecedented free hand. With the blessing of the West, in China rushed capital "overseas Chinese" from Taiwan and the South seas. They created a familiar for the West, business infrastructure allowed soon to proceed with massive investments in the country with an unprecedented and inexhaustible cheap labor. He Deng also studied successfully applied the model of "Confucian" or "authoritarian" capitalism, as in the scale of tiny Singapore and larger "Asian tiger" — Taiwan, was interested in the "Japanese economic miracle".

The choice of optimal conditions for the Chinese economic model, providing a favorable external environment and the mass support of "reform and openness" elite and the population have achieved spectacular successes, especially noticeable on the background of the previous period General poverty and chaos. However, the absence of strategic development goals, "multi-vector" plants of Beijing, and the low efficiency of the administrative sector, adopted the slogan of Deng Xiaoping's "get rich!" at his own expense, could not fail to lead to serious consequences. The country was divided into two parts: a rapidly developing coastal province with a strong presence of capital "overseas Chinese" and Western countries — on the one hand, and increasingly lagging behind other areas of China. There was a division among the population quickly grew rich received an initial capital of relatives "overseas Chinese" and established corrupt connections with entrepreneurs, government officials, began to live better than workers in private and foreign enterprises. The majority of Chinese continued to live in conditions of poverty and misery.

Taken at the XII Congress of the CPC in 1982, the attempt to resolve conceptual and practical problems of "reform and openness" has not brought the expected results. Disappointment in the market economy as a panacea for poverty, fears of the party elite to release the levers of governance has led to increased popularity of socialism and, in part, even Maoism. These sentiments led to the underscore in the proceedings of the Congress the importance of preserving the socialist system, based on principles such as the absence of exploitation of man by man, state ownership of the basic means of production, distribution according to labour and the planned development of the national economy and the socialist spiritual culture. Supporters of the accelerated development through the use of market economy principles also reflect their views in the decisions of the Congress were recorded to install on the increase of 4 times GDP by the year 2000. The compromise was proposed by Deng Xiaoping, a new phrase — "socialism with Chinese characteristics". This compromise, on the one hand, ensured the continuation of rapid economic development, but, on the other hand, was not allowed the internal problems of Chinese society.

Especially sharply rising inequality, permissiveness of managers felt the students. In 1985, Hainan island and Guangzhou started student protests against rising prices, corruption and bureaucracy. They were supported by the students of Beijing, XI'an and Chengdu. Party authorities, along with the tough measures to restore order in College campuses were forced to campaign against "vicious style among cadres". With the blessing of Deng Xiaoping, it was then restored the death penalty and began a demonstrative executions of corrupt officials caught in the stadiums.

In 1986, students in the province of Anhui, and then in Shanghai, Wuhan, Tianjin and Beijing took to the streets under the slogan "Without democracy, no reform" and with the requirements of the fight against bureaucracy and corruption. Speech is quite quickly extinguished by peaceful means. Several reform-minded party leaders, including General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee Ku Yaobang, who authorized the arrests of corrupt officials, including relatives of members of the Politburo, was accused of indulging in "bourgeois liberalism" and was dismissed from the post. However, Deng Xiaoping defended remained in the leadership of the supporters of the change and even gave the nod to the draft of political reform. However, limited steps in this direction have not led to reduced corruption and inequality, and a reform of prices has caused a surge in inflation, the standard of living of the population decreased.

On the background of the development of the economy, growing social, political and spiritual problems of society. For the sake of the unity of the party and the nation of the XIII Congress of the CPC (October-November 1987) tried to find a way in the formulation of the mobilization task of reaching China's level of moderately developed countries by 2050. However, neither the appeal to national feeling behind because of the "humiliation of the imperialists" of the country, no solid numbers of GDP growth, nor increase living standards of some categories of the population has not solved all problems. Heterogeneous in socio-economic terms, the society continued to accumulate protest potential.

By the spring of 1989 formation of bureaucratic capitalism as the basis while weakening the party and ideological superstructure took more blatant forms. Accelerated inflation, the income gap between upper and lower classes began to cause mass outrage. The permissiveness of the Nouveau riche and clans "new aristocracy" of the party committees and authorities have set up a way to combat rebels who still remembered the times of "cultural revolution," about the pogroms of the city and district, about the "stupid hats" on their heads yesterday, more powerful, and today humbly penitent chiefs. In may–June 1989, turned the riots in Tiananmen square in Beijing, supported by the youth in Shanghai and other cities. Price of the bloody tragedy, which even today in China, they don't mention the Communist party managed to hold the helm of power, but the "mistakes", the resignation of senior leaders (including Deng Xiaoping) lasted a few years.

The leadership of the CPC, faced in may 1989, with the prospect of a split party and a loss of power in the country long enough to overcome the experienced shock. Even the authority of Deng Xiaoping, who took responsibility for the crackdown is not enough to protect the reformist course. His nominee, General Secretary of the CCP Zhao Ziyang, who sympathized with the demonstrators, was removed from his post for life isolated somewhere in the vicinity of Beijing. Deng himself resigned from remaining in the key post of Chairman of the Military Council of the CPC Central Committee. Began the deceleration of economic reforms.

Only three years later, retaining the informal authority of Deng Xiaoping during a private trip to southern provinces of China, more than any other winner from the course of "reform and opening", was able to enlist the support of powerful forces in the party and the state. China was back on an upward trajectory. 90-ies and the beginning of "zero" years were a period of "Chinese economic miracle", when GDP growth is double-digit.

Even in the absence of a clear mobilization strategy with a long-term strategy, without an atmosphere of revival of national spirit and strict discipline in the management layer, and the society, China, however, went ahead. This contributed to winning after several tests, the model orientation to export markets, which were guaranteed by China for purely economic reasons, and for the sake of the country being drawn into military-political orbit of the West. A big success was the accession of China in 2001, the world trade organization (WTO). Beijing allowed us to negotiate a 15-year transition period, which was used to increase the volume of exports. In 2001, the foreign trade volume of China amounted to $ 200 billion., for a grace period, it reached 4 trillion. $ .

The success was paid a high price. A sacrifice to an unprecedented export growth has brought hundreds of millions surexploitation workers. Eyes deteriorating environment: the air, earth and water-soaked waste products. The country is even more divided into a prosperous and backward regions. Only the rigid residence registration system "Hukou" was holding back a mass Exodus of peasants from the villages, prevented the collapse of urban infrastructure and rudimentary social security system. In the spiritual realm was dominated by those who came from Hong Kong, Taiwan and America, the patterns of mass culture. Decreased the authority of the Communist party, forced to preserve their control to expand the powers of the public security organs. However, the "cat" continued to "catch mice", and the change of strategy or serious correction it didn't come up. General Secretary Jiang Zemin (1989-2002) and his successor, Hu Jintao (2002-2012) was limited to only cosmetic changes in the economy and domestic policy, and kept China in the "shadow" in the international arena on the advice of Deng Xiaoping. They basically ran the country on autopilot.

The mobilization is called "Chinese dream"

Inertial development of China could last for a long time, but the situation inside the country and abroad has changed qualitatively. Even a gradual increase in wages in the export industries began to deprive Chinese goods cheap, their main competitive advantage... the Combination of problems had slowed more recently, record GDP growth, and the outbreak of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis led to a further decline in demand for Chinese goods. The rapid rise of China began to call on the West's concern and desire to stop or at least slow down the rise of the red dragon. Perhaps the leaders of China at that time, it was clear that there is drastic changes, but they did not have enough intellectual resource to search for the exit rapidly approaching gridlock, and the political will to change the route. Both appeared only at the end of 2012, when at the XVIII Congress of the Communist party General Secretary, was elected President of China XI Jinping.

It seems that he began to develop his plan of mobilization of the middle Kingdom at least 5 years prior to coming to Supreme power. Becoming in 2007 the Deputy head of the party and state, he gained access to the entirety of information about the real state of Affairs in the country, has established close ties with the new generation of cadres in the party, administrative and military circles: in the center and in the provinces. As rector of the Party school of the CPC Central Committee, "the forge of party cadres," which went to him as the "heir", XI Jinping used for the selection of promising managers and create a "brain headquarters" for the development of a new transformation plan. Since then, reliance on intellectuals, the establishment of informal "brain headquarters" and "small leadership group" became the "calling card" management style, "comrade C".

It is no accident that just two weeks after the XVIII Congress he set the ruling party and all the people long-term, strategic goal titled "the Chinese dream of great Renaissance of the Chinese nation." Was the schedule for implementation of the two phases. By 2021, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CPC, is to build a society of average prosperity "passenger", which was spoken of not only Deng, but even Confucius. By 2049, the 100th anniversary of the PRC, is to turn China into a "rich and powerful, democratic, civilized, harmonious and modern socialist state."

But even the wisest strategy may not withstand the test of reality. The conditions in which began the leadership of XI Jinping, was far from optimal. The pace of China's economic development has decreased. Let yourself be known distortions in the pace of development of different sectors and regions. Aggravated environmental problems of big cities and the social problems of the Chinese countryside. Intensified "containment" of China by America and its satellites in Eastern and South-East Asia. To solve these and many other problems we had simultaneously, and for this it was necessary, in the words of Mao Zedong, "to grasp the main link to get the whole chain". The main link XI Jinping defined the economy. She became the main item on the agenda of the 3rd Plenum of the Central Committee of the CPC of the 18th convocation, which was held in Beijing from 9 to 12 November 2013

Without improving people's life — the death of China

Addressing the participants of the Plenum, XI Jinping, in particular, noted: "In 1992, comrade Deng Xiaoping in his speech, spoken in the South, said: "Without guidance from the PDA, without the construction of socialism, without carrying out the policy of reforms and openness, without economic development, without improving the lives of the people China faces a certain death". Looking back at the path, we more deeply understand the words of Deng Xiaoping. Therefore, we argue that only socialism will save China, and only the policy of reform and opening up is the indestructible guarantee that China, socialism and Marxism will continue to develop forward."

Solving the key issue of optimal economic models, XI Jinping to begin was diagnosed with a colossal body of the national economy of China. At the same the third Plenum, he said: "In the development process of our country is faced with significant contradictions and challenges on her way to meet a lot of difficulties and problems. For example, a critical question is irregular, inharmonious and short-term development. China is strong in the field of scientific and technical innovation, industrial structure is characterized by irrationality, in many areas still used the extensive model of development, the difference between the levels of development of towns and villages, as well as between income levels of different population groups continues to increase. Have intensified social contradictions, has a lot of issues that are closely related to the priority interests of the population in the areas of education, employment, social welfare, medicine, housing, environment, food safety and drug safety, public safety, law enforcement, etc. Vulnerable part of the population is experiencing great hardship. Also evident manifestations of formalism, bureaucracy, hedonism and extravagance. In some of the most vulnerable areas are continually being discovered cases of corruption and other negative phenomena, the situation with the anti-corruption struggle is still very acute. To resolve all these issues need to deepen reforms."

The deepest of pre-designed Jinping and his like-minded reforms was called "blue Canti", i.e. "new normal" or the new "normal". This catchy and descriptive term was published in may 2014 and quickly spread around the world, soon becoming a commonplace in the vocabulary of politicians and economists around the world. However, they began to invest in the concept of "new rules" of their own content. For China's "new normal" meant changing the entire route set in 1978 by Deng Xiaoping. Developed in crisis, and consisted of a hastily fitted to each other the constituent parts of the socialist planned economy and market regulations a course of "reform and openness" has fulfilled its historical role, pushed China from the brink of chaos and self-destruction in the result of the adventurist "jumps" and "cultural revolutions". After several UPS and downs, the policy of Deng Xiaoping put the country on an upward trajectory. His course successfully entered into the international environment of 70-ies—80-ies of XX century. But in a new environment, a new level of development of China badly needed a different economic model. It has become the "new norm".

Meaning this model looks like.

A period ends the race for high economic growth in the name which allowed the disproportionate development of different industries, sacrificed the interests of the population and the environment. Comes time high quality of economic structure, the exact balance between sectors and regions, improving the efficiency of investment and reduce energy consumption, reduce emissions of harmful substances.

Period is over bets on foreign markets and attracting foreign investment at any cost. The time priority of satisfaction of demands of internal market, quality improvement and rapprochement of living conditions of the population of towns and villages.

Ends the period of integration of the PRC into the global production chain as a supplier of cheap labor and investment of money earned in the US-controlled financial institutions. Starts the production of high-quality and competitive products in their own chains based on the achievements of Chinese science, the creation of an independent financial system and to support the global trade interests of China.

For the transfer of the national economy on the rails of the "new normal," XI Jinping was necessary not only to suppress only lightly covered resistance fed from the "old rules" powerful and numerous participants in the groups influence and corruption chains. It was necessary to restore order in the party and in the whole management layer, society as a whole.

"Augean stable" of government and business were full. Their clearing was dedicated to IV (2014), V (2015) and VI (2016) plenums of the Central Committee of the CPC. During these three years, instead of separate "landing" and shootings unfolded nationwide system against embezzlement. Since the beginning of 2013 more than 1.3 million officials incurred disciplinary and administrative penalties. Against 35,5 thousand have been prosecuted. Anti-corruption investigations have touched 280 officials of the rank of Minister, 8600 — the rank of Deputy Minister or Department head. In the five years from abroad managed to deliver 3317 fugitive corrupt officials.

Much has been done, but judging by the decisions passed in the fall of 2017 XIX Congress of the Chinese Communist party, the struggle is far from over and will be raised to a qualitatively new level. At the initiative of the CCP in the spring of 2018 at the session of the national people's Congress (Parliament) was fused party and state anti-corruption bodies and created a single powerful Agency — Oversight Committee.

A successful fight against corruption is not only healthier economic relations and disciplinary the system of party-state power from top to bottom. She enjoys the growing support of the overwhelming majority of the Chinese people, increases the "credibility" of the ruling party, provides the rise of the national spirit, gives us confidence in the correctness of the course of mobilization called "Chinese dream".

A strong reason for optimism serve as economic indicators five-year period of the realization "Chinese dream". Even in the face of changing economic policy and the inevitable losses from the closure of obsolete enterprises, the release of millions of workers, the average GDP growth in the 2014-2017 was at the level of 7.2%. For China, this means that by 2020 "a society of average prosperity" will be built because that would have been a 6.5% growth. Impressive and other indicators — 2% inflation and 5% unemployment. In 2016, real disposable cash income amounted to 23 821 yuan, down 7 311 yuan higher than in 2012, the average annual growth of 7.4% (1 yuan was worth 27.10.17 8.71 ruble). The number living below the poverty line (2,300 yuan per year) accounted for by the fall of 2017 43 million people, the number fell by 55.6 million, compared with 2012 growth Figures mean that China has overcome observed from the middle of "zero years" the trend of attenuation of the rate of economic development and has entered the path of sustained progress.

The counter force exceeds the force of the action

Perhaps the only missing element for a perfect model of the current mobilization is a favorable external environment. On the contrary, it becomes China's increasingly unfavorable. Belatedly realizing the strategic error of turning China into the "workshop of the world", Washington tried to negotiate with Beijing on the establishment of the American-Chinese Alliance's "G-2" to manage the global economy and politics. In 2009, President Barack Obama made this offer to President Hu Jintao, but was refused — China is not going to become "the nephew of" uncle Sam. In response was the strategy of containment of China military and political methods called "pivot to Asia". Then turned the creation of a trade bloc called the TRANS-Pacific trade partnership (TPP), essentially excluding China. Who came to power in 2016 President Donald trump criticized the "pivot to Asia" and led his country from the TTP. But soon, a project was launched to create "square" of Japan, South Korea, Australia and India — all with the same goal of containing China.

Of course, such actions by the US have a negative impact on the long-term promotion plan "China dream." Quite possibly the introduction of President D. trump's prohibitive duties on Chinese products that can create serious difficulties in several regions of China, focused on the American market. It is not excluded further advance to the borders of China carrier battle groups and missile systems, the creation of hotbeds of instability on the borders of China, but also in numerous regions, including Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region, Tibet and Hong Kong.

Beijing's response is likely to be the acceleration of the current mobilization of the project "Chinese dream". It may take the form of a forced reorientation of the industry on domestic markets, more vigorous promotion of the yuan as a global currency, increasing the level of strategic partnership with Russia up to a military-political Alliance, Frank attempts Washington to put pressure on Beijing only mobilize more Patriotic masses to work and even the possible deprivation in the name of defending the honor of China. "De-offshorization" of the Chinese elite, the tightening party discipline and strengthening Patriotic spirit in the spiritual life will also contribute to the success of the mobilization. Thus, the adverse external environment may not weaken so much, how many to strengthen the synergy effect of such elements mobilization of the project "Chinese dream", how to properly set long-term strategic goal, the choice of optimal economic models, guidance, discipline and order in the management layer, and in society in General, creating an atmosphere of revival of the national spirit. The current mobilization of China, recently received the lush "new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics", it is the most ambitious and the most interesting experiment of the XXI century. Its impact certainly will be felt not only neighbors of China, but all of humanity. The experience of already completed and upcoming stages of the development of China — deserves our close attention and study.

Source: zavtra.ru


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