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"Bankruptcy" Belarus and our common chance?
Material posted: Publication date: 11-04-2011

50 years first flight man in space. Continues, already without any hypocritical cover for aggressive NATO war against Libya – and the more openly now it is hushed up, the more important it is to talk about it, to remind. And disturbing news from Belarus supplied almost as a sign of the economic collapse of Lukashenko.

What else? A year has passed since the death of Polish President and his accompanying team at Smolensk - I'm sorry. And to congratulate the Israeli intelligence agencies with the successful operation to kidnap a Palestinian in Ukraine? Or, on the contrary, think about how discouraging something like that on our land?

...Could it have been then, half a century ago, and even to imagine that in the pre-anniversary days of the nationwide audience "the First channel" (former all-Union television) will learn about the circumstances of the then space race between the superpowers of American... inferior cut of the film with a completely ludicrous figures as our engineers and designers, little resembling the Queen and his colleagues, and kind of like the overseer over them a certain Martinet - "Marshal of the Soviet Union"? And almost the main "humanistic" conclusion: American forces captured the designer and his entire team) could too, but, like, dogs are more pitied...

Yes, not an easy task set before the current agitprop: on the one hand, you have, sort of, and celebrate, to glorify, excuse me, to cling to fame, but, on the other hand, the "reset"-that requires a "de-communization" – whatever was necessary to prove that if something great was not because of, but in spite of...

Remember relatively recent (several years ago) a TV discussion, and, in all seriousness: "does Russia Need the space?", in the sense that why bother with this nonsense to spend money... Especially impressed, as the assembled reporters, apparently from among "Humanities," particularly proud of the fact that "in mathematics do not understand," snorts down the arguments of the cosmonaut Svetlana Savitskaya, attributing her views and position, probably, to the "Communist Orthodoxy"...

That space is not nothing, like, still I understand. Especially after all international law finally collapsed, and its visibility, as, for example, in the case of Libya, supported only the prior is already quite beyond the "accommodating" before practically equal, and now is incomparably more weak of course is me, about us, about Russia. Despite the fact that not only a significant part of the tracking systems of potential and nowhere to go, more and more likely and even imminent) opponent, but all navigation-now – space...

Speaking of navigation: go, finally, reports of the imminent removal from office of the head of "Roscosmos", such as, for known bad run of three missing satellites of the national system of navigation. But gumannenko so – they say that the celebration will be held, and after that... you Have to understand, as opposed to the hateful totalitarian times, when there was significantly more quickly and decisively, and often with further very unpleasant consequences. Well, if we are to compare, so let's work seriously: then it really would severely punished for failures in the organization of work leading up to the accident. But to have someone of the leaders could spend a considerable amount of public funds for "insurance" satellites in obviously fake insurance company, in case of an accident, as is certainly not able to pay? And even to this company's leaders were children of the great cosmic bosses – but for the hundredth part of similar from the head all torn off, the end of the anniversary celebrations precisely did not wait. Now, even in the worst case – nothing more than "economic" (i.e. "not serious") offence. And which one is fairer? And what more effective (we are all completely - "pragmatists", supposedly, efficiency and competitiveness in the forefront put)?

And again, my persistent question: and if not to provide parity with the enemy (now about it and speeches cannot be), then at least the ability of adequate response (and hence deterrence) with the use of space technology is "post-industrial" society with only the relevant "post-industrial" economy (without its own strong industrial base that is able? Of course not. So, either, but nice "upgrades", you need more basic (but not so simple in execution) reindustrialization, or we will not. And who brought the first man into space, future historians will easily forget or will present it as something preliminary, not quite real, for example, in contrast to the flight then a man on the moon...

And why not? If in modern times, the poles in Russia, the crash of the presidential plane near Smolensk unilaterally to install his plate with text is not about the plane crash in virtue of an accident (or, especially, in gross negligence of their own officials), but about the "genocide" of Polish prisoners of war by the Soviet Union, and after its replacement by our side on more adequate to organize in the anniversary of the tragedy and a big scandal with threats that the Polish President will lay a wreath at the monument with the "wrong" sign, why future Western rulers and historians, including the Polish, it should be to us more benevolent and fair?

And I also really like when the essence of the conflict between Poland and Russia is described in terms of "trust - distrust", the more "historical". Yes, and here such a popular category? After all, not going to get married... And in politics and trade significant category of other. Try to apply such categories to the trade-economic relations between the US and China? Or, especially, between the United States and Vietnam – indeed, such mass cruelty which was shown by the aggressor in a much closer (than in the case of Poland and Russia, the 40-ies of XX century) us-Vietnam war, we still have to look... Yes, anybody seriously does not trust, literally, for a penny. But if mutually borrow billions and even (in the case of China) hundreds of billions, it is because such a state of mutual, but not because the alleged "trust". No "trust" here, of course, absolutely nothing to do with it...

Although, returning to the anniversary of the tragedy of the Polish plane near Smolensk and current provocations with "wrong" signs, the poles have to claim? Them, in any case, widows, mothers and children a year ago and who died tragically only condolences. But as in the heyday of the Russian Empire stated: "Not one gun in Europe could not shoot without our permission"? And now, no pug can't yelping or to arrange another political scandal (or, for example, provocation on Georgian-Abkhaz border, resulting in the death of our border guard) – without anyone's permission? Known overseas. Let's pretend that don't understand it? With fine performers will earnestly contend, or, conversely, to "establish a relationship" (that is, to go on endless concessions), despite the fact that with the customer – "reboot"? Not that in politics, but even the most basic business principle: to negotiate not with those who are closer, but with someone actually seriously something depends. Lead the negotiations and not on particulars, and around the circle the real interests together. The situation, when Russia, ostensibly pragmatic, to maintain partnerships with US and EU vetoes on initially obvious just a cover for the aggression against Libya, and NATO and NATO-oriented pug on the outskirts of our country continue to yelp and even try to bite, this situation is not only immoral, but, you see, absolutely certainly not pragmatic...

...By the way, remind one of the now give us the explanation so directly pressing need in whatever was to maintain a "partnership" relationship with the US and EU – they are expected to help us in "modernization." But what "upgrade" they barely finished, and what is not? Known: to share experiences of "management", "marketing" and "PR", but still at a very simplistic level, like art, "creativity", coming suddenly from nowhere, without any genuine education and a deep understanding of being is please. But when it comes to something more or less serious, and even the Russian control of the German "Opel" - not the leader in global automotive industry – Americans were not allowed categorically. Did not hide the reasons – it is impossible to prevent the transfer of Russian high technologies. Despite the fact that in the production of passenger cars-so-critical technology, seriously affecting the country's defense, obviously not. A similar reaction followed, and to attempt even a minimum of mutual integration of our "Rosneft" and British BP. And that the British will be admitted to our shelf doesn't cause problems. But what the Russians can get access to modern Western technologies – here, the us Congress immediately do not hide the discontent and readiness by all means to stop the deal. That, however, yet they manage without much difficulty, the benefit of nationally oriented capital, we have successfully formed (though clearly not focused on the Russian national interests), and on behalf of "TNK-BP" he insistently demands the termination of the transaction...

So, if you confine the "SKOLKOVO showcase", "nanotechnology" and, more broadly, only what the West "gives the nod", then, obviously, no breakthrough in the future is impossible. The alternative – re-industrialization, heavy and hard, but without which there is no basis for other things that we so vividly painted as a "post-industrial".

But not so much for a full re-industrialization, but for minimal survival for some time, even in the current flawed level, it turns out that we need not only engineers (of power-intensive than talking a month ago), but... working. And, by the way, finally drew the attention of the President were killed over the past year on producing an order of magnitude greater than a year ago in the Polish President's plane. And this is only according to official statistics – what proportion of occupational injuries public, and what is hidden, particularly where a non-resident, without any written contracts, or entirely disenfranchised foreigners – it can only be assumed. But there is no "excessive sentimentality" - everything is dry and strictly, no flowers and wife of our senior officials on this occasion never lay. But still at least an order of magnitude greater (that is, already two orders of magnitude more than were killed a year ago in the plane of the Polish President) all in the same year, steel in our production is disabled. And, again, this is just what is considered proper. That's right, that finally raised the question about safety and about proper insurance from accidents on production, but how will it be implemented? Until now, the legislation in relation to employees is consistently increased, and in relation to employers, respectively, only increasingly condoned.

And now, despite the higher correct statements, to doubt, unfortunately, there are reasons. And it's not only about the degree of sincerity of good intentions, but also about the level of complexity of understanding of the situation and, accordingly, the approach to the problem.

Because again, almost lost among three pine trees. But the essence of a problem, it has long been obvious to critics of our government, it (government) is only being explored: nothing in the country to produce profitable, and if more and salary workers decent pay, and even safety to provide, plus social insurance to organize a normal, so what kind of competitiveness in the markets that are open for import of any product from abroad, where production is already well established and is almost perfectly developed and mass), to say? Customs duties to protect, say, to use? Very clever – in an environment where other hand simultaneously cancel the severe penalties for smuggling goods...

"The market costs money, and we give it for free..." is a recognition of the Chairman of the government is symptomatic. Logical and immediately note: does not fulfill any of the requirements of the WTO as long as we are in this organization did not join. Well, again, indeed, a very important public recognition. And a valid. But it is not clear, first, how did this made – submissive compliance with the requirements of the organization in which we are not included? And then who for is already done thus the total large-scale damage to the national economy must answer? And, secondly, after accession to the WTO, then what? Indeed, while it turns out, the only problem is that the market gave before joining the WTO, and this allows us to WTO further and have no make. And if it weren't for our "naivete" and in the WTO we took, all right? Right after all, the Prime Minister said: the market is worth money, and free (in the broad, not only purely monetary understanding of the cost to give it away – criminal. But then again my persistent question: to join the WTO, at what cost we give your market, including the loss to competitors of our industries and jobs, and therefore, if there is no demand and skilled labor, and our science and our education? Where are the calculations? More or less correct such calculations in favor of joining the WTO, I did not have to meet. And fundamentally incorrect – weight.

So if it is said "and", it may be worthwhile, nevertheless, to go to "b"? And understand that either the orientation of young people to the manufacturing field (at least a work, even an engineer anyway), with a corresponding decent wages and a modicum of confidence that received over the years serious (not "management") of training the skill will be in demand or the entry of weaker countries (which we now are) to the WTO. The attempt is to combine, somehow it is fundamentally unconnected, nevertheless, to unite, not to seem rude, but it smacks of a sort of readiness to easily donate in-game pawns. And as "pawns" – all those who the authorities once again lightly believe and dedicate their life and destiny with the production sphere, and then it turns out that we all (about the development of its own production, about the engineers and workers) – not seriously, but only temporarily, to "partners" to scare, to coveted in the WTO, we quickly took...

In this connection, draws the attention, and some downright voluptuous malevolence in some of our media: first, how our partner has not established a "Union state" in exchange to buy currency, then that in Belarus, it is a panic... are the views of observers diverge. Some do not hide the joy: they say, finally, everyone will see that the Belarusian economic miracle is nothing more than bullshit. Others insist that everything is in order, and the difficulty is only temporary. I have once again another question: is the crisis now only in Belarus? Where there is no economic crisis, albeit expressed in very different forms?

In Belarus, indeed, serious economic problems. But, remember, the country is a little – completely self-contained can not be. And the economy of the country is export-oriented. Not raw materials trading, in contrast to the us, complex products with high added value, including products of engineering industry. What in the conditions, when around the crisis leads the decrease in foreign demand? Clear – the crisis of production, inability to pay the old wages to collect taxes in the state budget and funds of public consumption, and hence to pay the same pensions and benefits, etc. And what is "bullshit"?

But on the head of Belarus falls another, the main problem is the rising cost of energy on the world market. So that, unlike us, Belarus this is not revenue growth, and unplanned additional costs, it is the fault of their economic and state-political system? Of course, with rising costs and expenses, including for energy, will gradually increase prices on everything, including industrial and agricultural products. But those who are bigger, stronger, plus more, and prints the reserve currency, you can wait and almost to podepisovat, thus in this period of rising costs without a proportional increase in the cost of the final product pounichtozhat weaker (in terms of reserves of financial resources and the availability of a private printing press, issuing a reserve currency). Little in this period particularly difficult: food in Belarus if now somewhere and lost, it is not because local agriculture is allegedly inefficient and produce little products – quite the opposite. But only us - Russia - these foods were sold last year, almost ten billion dollars at prices significantly lagging behind the current growth in energy prices. And then who one – not technically, legally, and in fact prevailing in the world of the disparity of price – subsidized and literally feeds?

Integrated into the global export-oriented economy obviously is going through a crisis together with the world. And nothing else. And even if possible now in Belarus as a result of the crisis, default and / or devaluation of the national currency, do we like this has not happened? We then went up (although in recent times solely due to the favorable situation in the energy market), so why Belarus will not rise again? That is, to malevolence what reasons?

But if you now also happens the forced devaluation of the Belarusian currency within the common customs space of its agricultural products to our market will become even more highly competitive, and our authorities will Express dissatisfaction with the fact that Belarus is undermining our agriculture – not that we don't see in advance? Not so Holy is our duty in these circumstances is not to remove the partner and virtually the only ally of the hands, and to help – and Belarus, and, thus, ourselves?

Moreover, why not compare the current problems really productive of the Belarusian economy with the problems, for example, Greece, whose national debt in half the annual GDP? Or Portugal, which is already with debt at 1.2 annual GDP, appealed to the EU for help. And asks something quite "nothing" - 75 billion euros, which corresponds to more than one hundred billion dollars! But in these countries the considerable part of production was informed by the EU deliberately destroyed, but now said of them already in plain text as on direct bankrupt...

Why the bankruptcy of countries obedient to the will of a stronger partner for the EU and even NATO is not a tragedy, not a collapse of their state-political system and the bankruptcy of the Belarus – wreck?

Moreover, as you, on the one hand, the requirement of the UK and the Netherlands to Iceland (another country – practical bankruptcy) payment of state budget debts of the Icelandic savings Bank Icesave"? We're so convinced that "the independence of our Central Bank and the entire banking system so vital to ensure that in the event that the state is not responsible for the debts of the Bank, and the Bank for the debts of the state... on the other hand, a referendum in which more than 60% of Icelanders naturally voted against repayment of the debt of the Bank to the British and the Dutch. Britain and the Netherlands, of course, going to sue Iceland, but also no crash – the one that is so coveted predict Belarus?

I'll answer for it that these countries and then Spain and Italy if debt crisis then spread and they will help EU. I am very happy for them and for the EU as well as for their General big cash printing press. But I draw everyone's attention to the important fact that even in conditions of pronounced unfriendly environment and occasionally entered against the country of sanctions, Belarus has the ability to get out of the situation on their own, maybe slightly tightening the belt (which, you know, it would be difficult to explain to the population), and without cheating (by not throwing in all the world surplus unsecured banknotes), in any case, if it specially not to interfere from the outside, and hence the sovereignty, and thus the desired freedom is significantly higher than in the blessed truly free Greece and Portugal. Not a paradox?

Thus, even minimally analyzed the situation and comparing what is happening in Belarus with what is happening around us, we see economic problems is one thing, but unrestrained desire in whatever was to strangle the state, not obedient to the will of the global financial mafia is another. Further scenario is obvious. Will peacefully or the Libyan scenario (with a pragmatic "abstinence", Russia) topple the current Belarusian authorities, and there will be no customs Union and, moreover, the Union state, and hence for us the chance to climb together again. Other doors for Belarus will be opened in the EU. But only in the best case, on the same terms that were actually dictated by Greece, Portugal and other countries of the "second class", as well as our former Baltic republics. That is, every Belarusian will be a free – will after some time leaving to work in Poland or even further to Germany. Freedom to develop their country as strong and at least relatively independent and self-sufficient to it, without going anywhere, it was possible to live a normal life and work – such freedom is not provided. And that kind of freedom, which may be all now feels like the most important value, would not return, in any case, during the life of the next generations...

And in conclusion, yet another realistic touch to the picture of the world – the abduction of the Israeli Palestinian intelligence services on the territory of Ukraine. We consider all this as if from a distance, like it doesn't concern us. And indeed, not our citizen, not captured in our territory, besides, we don't know what there really is – whether he had anything to fight for the liberation of Palestine or not. But, I think for us the main question here still is not, for arrested Palestinians, but that it's easily possible to steal on the territory of Ukraine. And in Russia – is impossible?

When entered and then promptly implemented another initiative to transform our country to have an absolute thoroughfare – come without any visa anyone here and do whatever you want - we what do you think? It will make our more favorable "investment climate"? But if the whole world is struggling for the same, but for some reason neither the US nor the EU our example to imitate in no hurry, so maybe we do still something not quite? Yes, many countries, specializing in providing resort services, easily abolish visa restrictions on entry to itself. But that is not very noticeable to the same example was followed by leaders in the field of high technologies. So, maybe it is about different "investment climates"? Single, kind, favourable for rest and relaxation and, respectively, for investment only vacation. Followed by the inevitable bankruptcy that we are seeing now the example of Greece, Portugal and etc. the Other for high-tech development. And the latter does not seem to be achieved by such techniques as turning the country into a thoroughfare...

Belarusians have long understood, are other methods. And we still don't understand?

 

Yuri Boldyrev

Source: http://www.stoletie.ru/poziciya/bankrotstvo_belorussii_ili_nash_obshhij_shans_2011-04-11.htm

Tags: Russia


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