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Belarus before the election
Material posted: -Publication date: 10-12-2010

The main factors taking place in Belarus election campaign act several forces - the government, the opposition, the West (EU and USA) and Russia. Before election day only two weeks left, so you might want to consider what "baggage" each of the parties coming to this date.

The opposition

Before the day of elections of the President of the Republic remained only two weeks, and the opposition don't seem to be able to make positive conclusions. One of her main problems is fragmentation. Until now, the opposition candidates has not adopted any joint statement, has not been a joint action. During the televised debate on Saturday, the presidential candidates also failed to name a joint statement.

The latest initiative in this regard -the leaders of initiative groups of four presidential candidates - Uladzimir Nyaklyaeu, Yaraslau Ramanchuk, vital Rymasheuski and Andrei Sannikov in Babruisk call to speak with a common message about the campaign. Most likely, it will remain unanswered. Meanwhile, it is obvious that, for example, between the call from each candidate to enter the area and the joint statement of the candidates to enter the area - a big difference.

The next problem of the opposition is the lack of promotions and events of the national scale. The only one in this area takes some effort, is Vladimir Nyaklyaeu. And this, according to the second sociological research of the International centre of sociological and marketing research SOCIUM "the pre-Election situation in the Republic of Belarus", has not gone unnoticed by voters Nyaklyaeu slightly increased its lead over the other two most popular opposition candidates Andrei Sannikov and Yaroslav Romanchuk.

As was noted by the experts, none of the opposition candidates never took advantage of the mistakes and blunders of the authorities in carrying out this campaign. Candidates were unable to develop a common position on the fourth all-Belarusian people's Assembly (CVNS), although, in my opinion, everything here is so obvious that to speak once again about the importance of building their own information campaign on the background of FWM too. And again, the only candidate who has tried though as-that to beat in terms of information, this event was Vladimir Nyaklyaeu. Where, let me ask the other candidates? They that money to pay Nyaklyaeu for the entrance to station square?

In addition, the more acquainted with what is happening behind the scenes, the more it becomes noticeable that except for Uladzimir Nyaklyaeu and Mikalai Statkevich, almost all other opposition presidential candidates decide their strictly narrow task of promoting their own figures to the masses. This is especially noticeable in the analysis of action Rymasheuski, Mikhalevich, Romanchuk. And as shown by the debates, they are more comfortable for the authorities. No demands, harsh, demarches. They showed the authorities that exist and are ready to continue to exist in the informational, ideological and organizational the reserve which is allotted to them by the authorities. In this respect, the degradation of personalities, preparing to lead the Pro-Western opposition in the very near future, is obvious.

Accordingly, at the next election the Pro-Western opposition will face an even greater crisis leaders than these. Nyaklyaeu, Sannikau, Statkevich because of their age will be forced to take second roles. The output is the first role of the same Lyabedzka or Yanukevich situation will not change - they can't be those leaders who lead people.

I.e. "progressive Belarusian society", middle class, educated part of workers and peasants, intellectuals, etc. are faced with a difficult problem - it turned out that the Belarusian society currently, there are no political forces that could actively and, most importantly, effectively to defend its interests in the dialogue with the authorities. Existing political parties or civil initiatives of the type "European Belarus" imprisoned solely for their leaders with the goal of parasitism on the problems of the Belarusian society and the state for the purpose of receiving Western grants to indicate a struggle. The party, thanks to the efforts of their leaders, every year more and more turn into a dissident movement without prospects become part of the state machine (even if only in the form of a presence in Parliament).

This problem - the lack in the Republic and a developed political infrastructure, is able to be active and effective, the custodian of the interests of Belarusian society, have yet to comprehend after the election. This issue is very complicated, it is not solved quickly. But if society wants to approach the next presidential elections seriously - this issue will need to begin to discuss and solve 20 Dec.

And one more thing I would like to say. The opposition still have not created a well-developed infrastructure expert. Yes, there are some politicians, experts and strategists. But they exist in your space and in your policy. Despite the fact that the entire world practice shows politicians sponsors provide resources only when they (politicians) listen to those experts, in which they show themselves sponsors. Therefore a developed, dynamic and well-coordinated expert infrastructure is the top priority. Only after solving this problem, we can talk about the immediate transformation of the political infrastructure.

Obviously, civil campaigns or initiatives for a number of reasons can't become those supports, which can be based on the political infrastructure: they are ground under leader funding is limited formats, civil initiatives, etc. however, it is also clear that the existing opposition parties are in a very acute ideological crisis. Their positioning is completely stopped responding to structure the Belarusian society.

The outcome of the elections is obvious. The struggle for non-recognition of the fraud is clear. However, if the West and Russia will not get a "clue" for non-recognition of the election results, this is the task yesterday. Today we need to prepare real political infrastructure "the next day". It sprouts I see in such Internet projects as "Empire", "Brahma", the MAGICIAN. On these online resources currently contains the most creative forces of the Republic, and not in the parties and civil initiatives, oddly enough. Last currently rather act as a reactionary, along with the authorities of the Republic, the forces that pull us back.



We must recognize that power more intelligently lead this campaign. Serious mistakes not yet committed. It should be noted that two extreme scenarios - the boycott and the introduction of state of emergency - annihilate each other. The main resource of the dominance of government - is the ambition of several opposition presidential candidates, who for the sake of two or three percent, and the articulation of their names in the final report of the Belarusian CEC, in essence, spat on the Belarusian society. Therefore, we can not say that the government does not make mistakes, and that their opposition made much more.

Obviously, if CSS, Romanchuk, Rymasheuski, Mikhalevich, Tereshchenko, Kastusyou, Statkevich, and even (call these candidates, because in my opinion, they are not able to overcome the barrier of 5%, except Romanchuk) appeared, the situation for power would have been fundamentally different. But it's not too late to show courage and will, there's still time - the candidates have declared themselves, people learn about them and come to the area they will be able in any case.

However, neutralizing mainly the election campaign of opposition candidates, the government can not solve their main problem - the legitimacy of the election results and recognition from the West and Russia. And it can't be obscured even some external liberalization of the electoral campaign. Obviously, for example, the main reason of the registration of nine candidates is not caused by a "liberalization" campaign, and the need to take away the opposition voters.

To date, the government has made so many violations of the electoral legislation, on the legitimacy of the voting results and the speech: the ballot boxes will be guarded around the clock, in the composition of precinct election commissions do not include representatives of candidates, observers will have the opportunity to monitor the counting of votes, and more. etc. however, these violations can be only an appendage to other issues of the election campaign.

It is worth noting that began CVNS is not so much a bomb as before: news agencies practically do not quote the main report that shows a decline meetings as a factor in the election campaign. After the opposition failed to use CVS as the last cause for serious informational events, which would have given effect until the date of voting time, it is clear that in the remaining two weeks, the opposing parties will be conducted only positional battles of local importance, which does not seriously alter the electoral situation today. By default, the parties recognized that the main rivalry will begin on 19 Dec at 20: 00 on October square.

However, I would like to note that the expectations of leaders and candidates from the opposition that the Area will happen for their scenario - a naive, if not criminal. The government this year, unlike 2006, will not let the opposition just walk the square and take her for two weeks. Rather, there will be organized the show with their paid artists and actors.



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