Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / Russia and Belarus: estimates and projections / Articles
Belarus - Tunisia - Egypt: information society in action
Material posted: Publication date: 07-02-2011

The situation in Egypt, although not comparable to the Bible, when toads mixed with fire rained down from the sky, was profoundly affected Europe. Still - in case of change of Egyptian orientation, in addition to the closure comfortable winter beaches and trouble for Israel, there is the threat of the passage of tankers through the Suez canal. And oil is the main measure of values, including moral.

So long awaited Belarusian society meeting of EU foreign Ministers did not meet the expectations of opponents of the dictatorship, and gave the chance to breathe a sigh of relief Lukashenka and his entourage. Still, got off lightly: we'll have some time to hang out in Paris. Thus, in order to have someone to continue the trade prisoners in exchange for any concessions, left the door open for the Minister of foreign Affairs Sergei Martynov and first Vice-Premier of Belarus Vladimir Semashko.

It seems, before the outbreak of the Second world war, Germany with America someone also briskly traded. So the "nasriganj bridges", as stated by the EU high representative for foreign Affairs Catherine Ashton in an interview on January 31 in the appeasement of a dictator - this is an old-tested democratic tactic. But a truly effective economic sanctions are too painful for Belarus, after which she, God forbid, can fully be in "bear paws" of the Kremlin. This was also when some of the American Corporation throughout the Second world war provided a strategic raw materials to Germany through third countries.

And so many Western-oriented opposition was naive hopes and expectations of Europe will help us, for them the sacred principles of freedom and democracy. But Belarus is interesting only as an oil offshore, from where in Europe do cheap petroleum products made from Russian oil at subsidized prices. The West is completely satisfied with the Belarusian ruler, which ensures the operation of the offshore company, and not allow Russia to fully absorb Belarus. And democracy matter, especially if there are no extravagant violations of its visibility. And so, long before the presidential elections, all Western leaders was clearly stated that the West will support the re-election of Lukashenko. From him and demanded that to be a little civilized. That is not to ascribe 80% of the vote, and no longer hide their opponents in the first bog.

And it was meant to be on the approved scenario when the Pro-Western opposition chorus in nine SIP shouting empty slogans, and confident Lukashenka elegant, and, most importantly, a democratic win with a score of 65 - 70%. The opposition then moved a couple of hundred of his supporters round dance around new year tree on October square, and would spread through the headquarters to write to the records center.

But broke. In the evening on election day, 19 December the streets unexpectedly dumped as much as 50 thousand residents of Minsk with the question - Where are our voices?

Clowns who performed the role of presidential candidates, with such a crowd dance around the tree to organize failed, and nothing better not figured out how to walk to the neighboring area. Not to go in the direction of the obelisk of Victory, or to the adjacent residence of the President, but the crowd poured into the square where the government building, which housed the Central electoral Commission. Lukashenko decided that the West it's damned villainy itself, they say, assured that will not give him a color revolution, and secretly prepared a revolt. And fright Lukashenko gave the order to whack all and then clean cover, not a living soul on the square left. As the reason for the start of activities on cleaning of streets, a dozen of sixes beat "iron against the glass" doors of government House.

That's the story. And then began to seek, and to this day, arranged a provocation, and broke the joining of the Belarusian dictator to the civilized family of European democracy. First began to hang all the dogs on Moscow. And then, seeing that she is not in the business, and knows only, that it plays in oil and gas pipe taps, and except for a couple random guys in jail with Russian passports there is no material evidence on it, began again to try to negotiate. The talks were live (statements by any senators, and counter threats to the offended Lukashenka) about this key - you will release your prisoners and we will not introduce sanctions, but only in half a year you'll close the entry we have in front of their public face to save. The Belarusian regime did - is translated under house arrest the first political party, and the European Union was limited to conditional sanctions with a time limit of entry for one hundred and fifty senior officials.

The fact is that for a month and a half after a spontaneous protest in Minsk, the world began to emerge a new trend that explains the failure began a smooth drift Belarus to the West.

Suddenly there was a sudden fall of the authoritarian regime in Tunisia, which will not interfere with, except for the Tunisian people. And then slammed by other modes, mainly focused in the Arab world. Well, when in Egypt in which thirty years nothing could shake Mubarak, all of a sudden was povernulas, West opened a new terrible reality.

The Internet, which came from the bowels of the Pentagon, and then the search engines under control of the CIA, then all sorts of social network in the form of Live Magazines, Facebooks and Tweeters, but still connected to mobile phones, has created a global world wide web. Already everything was programmed under the future global and all-pervading super-spider called "Big Brother", with which you can manage from one center to all humanity.

But often the gun is double-edged. And forgot about it. The social network offered an opportunity for the self-organization of huge communities across the country. And these masses proved uncontrollable by any fake and hyped to the authorities. Started to work laws crowds and spontaneous demonstrations, coordinated directly by the participants. And no of staff - they simply do not, and therefore cannot calculate and destroy. The headquarters of the revolt blurred crowd of thousands. From the virtual space broke out the gin, becoming uncontrollable, may destroy, first of all, their Western master.

Here's what happened first in Minsk on the election day, 19 December, and then began in Tunisia and swept across the Arab world. Therefore, the meeting of foreign Ministers on 31 January was dedicated primarily to Egypt, and only in passing the issue of careful sanctions against the Belarusian regime, affected by the U.S. information inventions.

To go to the bottom of the entire modern system of world order has now begun to urgently put patches on the holes of a sinking ship. First reacted by Google.

After Egyptian authorities blocked access to the Internet, the protesters suddenly found that there is an opportunity to inform about the events on Twitter by using phone calls through a new service Speak to Tweet. Phones in Egypt only temporarily disconnected, without context, the country cannot exist for long.

Egyptian activists quickly appreciate the possibilities of the Speak to Tweet, launched recently by the joint efforts of companies like Twitter, Google and SayNow (recently bought by Google). Now you can call the number and tell your "tweet" to be sent to the stream @speak2tweet. Phone numbers to call are in the US, Italy and Bahrain. The dictated messages are placed on the service micro-blogging Twitter under the hashtag #egypt. Now the Egyptians do not need the Internet connection only telephone line, which will link with the operators who controlled clear. They will direct millions in the crowd of Egyptians in the right direction.

Of course, primitive, and too all on the surface, but the holes can shut everyone though pillows, if only to survive the storm. But can and not worry - too fast Jin began to rush over the planet, and where it strikes the Board tomorrow, no one knows. Maybe again in Belarus, and maybe even in the U.S. - there is also something to make a point.

Then will be quite fun.

 

Fedor Piljak


Source: http://belarus.regnum.ru/news/analitics/1371482.html

Tags: crisis , Africa


RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics
Возрастное ограничение