Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / Russia and Belarus: estimates and projections / Articles
The Belarusian ruble is on the verge of default
Material posted: -Publication date: 31-03-2011

In recent times in Belarus seriously worsened the situation with the currency. The national Bank of the Republic stopped selling it to banks, and those, in turn, the population. Experts say that the official rate of the Belarusian ruble and the market differ by 10-20%. What is happening on the currency market of Republic and the Belarusian currency, "Hvilya" asked the Belarusian expert Yuri little Sheep.


- Good afternoon, Yury, tell me, please, what is the situation on the currency market of Belarus today?

The situation is very alarming. The gold reserves of the Republic at the end of 2010 accounted for only about 5.5 billion dollars. For comparison, this is two times less per capita than in Ukraine, which is much worse than Belarus position. Within two months of the current year GCR has lost about 1.5 billion dollars. The main reason for this negative balance of foreign trade, the company simply wash available in the Republic of currency for payment of imports. Additionally, you no longer oil and gas "Delta" -the difference between the prices at which the Republic bought Russian oil and gas, and prices on the world market, due to which the leadership of the Republic could cover his wrong economic course. In addition, fearing a devaluation, the population bought up currency, and thereby precipitated the crisis.

- What caused the panic of the population?

- It is caused by objective factors. First, after the December increase (associated with the pre-election promises of the incumbent President of the country) up to $ 500 in January seriously down size average wage up to $ 440. Secondly, two months of the current year the Belarusian ruble fell to 5.85% the currency basket (it includes the Russian ruble, dollar and Euro). Thirdly, in the Republic seriously growing inflation: the annual forecast is 8-9% for January-February it has grown on 4,2%, and for the two weeks of March another 1%.

I.e. people saw that despite all pre-election promises of the authorities, wages are falling, the ruble depreciates, the prices in the shops are rising. Why they decided to protect their savings so long been a proven way and went to the exchangers. Arriving there and was surprised to find that there is no money. In addition, the national Bank and the government over the past two months carefully limited the sale of foreign currency to economic entities. This has also led to panic.

- What exactly was done by the national Bank of the Republic and the government?

For the past two months the national Bank has done a lot to screw up. To start with, the NBU introduced administrative restrictions on foreign currency purchase on the stock exchange to Finance the import of investment contracts not more than 50 thousand euros. I.e. up foreign trade activities of Belarusian economic entities. Further, it was decided to order the currency on the exchange for 30 (!) days before purchasing it. Whereas previously it was delivered the next day. Ie had to give Belarusian rubles today, so only a month you were given currency. And who can guarantee that in the course of this month, do not devaluation? It is clear that nobody. This measure of the national Bank led to the fact that such a world famous company like Samsung was forced to publish an official statement that it will suspend its work with Belarusian dealers to return the situation in the former legal framework.

In addition, the national Bank stopped selling foreign currency to commercial banks, and those, in turn, customers. It got to the point of absurdity – not only some banks have been asking customers to sell them currency from their foreign currency accounts, but also announced temporary restrictions on foreign exchange payments on the card accounts in Belarusian rubles.

- What did the national Bank of the Republic some steps to remedy an absurd situation arisen?

- Measures-act. In its ruling of 22 March 2011 No. 89 from 1 April 2011 the national Bank has abolished the 30-day reservation of funds in Belarusian rubles to buy foreign currency at auction of JSC ”Belarusian currency and stock exchange“. Thus, from April 1, 2011 reservation of funds by banks to purchase foreign currency will be carried out in the former regime – one working day prior to bidding. However, this does not mean that the currency can be bought on the exchange. The replacement 30-day reservation comes "card system". Sale of foreign currency to economic entities will be made in amounts not exceeding the offer (30% compulsory sale). This introduces the list of priorities.

So, you know, if there is no currency in the country and actually eaten gold reserves, undertake measures, not undertake measures, the currency from this will be no more, until the non-market exchange rate. If the U.S. dollar today on the black market is 3600-4000, so, so need to sell, then businesses, and the population will see at least some of their insurance money from inflation. However, this cannot be done for political reasons.

As soon as there will be another devaluation of the Belarusian Bunny, the population will immediately see that his actual salary was $ 300-350, it is still there, but the prices on everything from fees for kindergarten and to food products increased almost twice. When people are aware that it was once again rudely "threw", then no one can give today is no guarantee that after that he will take to the streets. While on the streets not that pathetic lured activists of the Pro-Western opposition, which periodically and for no reason wanders through Minsk, and the proletarians – the very popular "bone", about whose well-being so supposedly cares the Belarusian leadership.

- I.e. in Minsk and other cities of the country to buy the currency in exchange offices?

No, you can't.

- Does the salvation of the Belarusian authorities against default?

And this salvation is called the Russian loan. Will give the Russians $ 400 million loan will last for two months. Will give 1 billion dollars – will last until August-September. Will give $ 3 billion – enough to the end of the year. Will not allow a collapse will have to wait for spring.

- Thank you very much for the interview for our readers.

- Always glad to communicate with the audience such popular portal, as a "Wave". Convey to all residents of the Ukrainian fraternal greetings from Belarus.

Yuriy Havrylechko


Source: http://www.imperiya.by/news.html?id=62614


RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics
Возрастное ограничение