Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) led by the US carried out activities aimed at the geopolitical reorientation of Belarus through the promotion of the doctrine of neutrality. Belarusian neutrality is a way to get the official Minsk's refusal from military and economic Alliance with Moscow. The Western structure has the following objectives. First, to deprive Russia of a key ally in the Western direction, and secondly, to deprive Belarus of the Russian "security umbrella", which is a quarter of a century has allowed the country to withstand the enormous pressure from the West. The doctrine of the Belarusian neutrality are promoting the same people, organizations, countries that had previously declared Belarus "the last dictatorship in Europe" and made several attempts to arrange a "color revolution" in Minsk. The proclamation of neutrality, which in practice means the rejection of a military Alliance with Russia will deprive the Republic of this support. Neutral Belarus, independence and sovereignty which is not secured by Alliance with a nuclear superpower, would be vulnerable to the expansion of the West and forced "democratization".
The main goal of the West to destroy the Union "Russia-Belarus"
Belarus ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections is in the centre of the struggle of the West for control of Eastern Europe. Belarus traditionally caused increased attention because of their unique geopolitical position, but today the interest is higher than ever in the modern history of the Republic. The intensity of the struggle for Belarus is linked to the revival of the military and political power of Russia, and with the weakening of the West.
The unipolar world is collapsing, which is manifested in the strengthening in the West antielitnye forces, the conflict, the US and Europe within NATO, the crisis of the European Union, defeats in Syria and Venezuela. In a systemic crisis the old world order desperately needs a success story that will prove that he can still win. The last such "success story" was a coup in Ukraine that occurred as a result of mass protests under the slogan "European choice". Reversal of Belarus to the West would be even more convincing proof of the continuing strength and attractiveness of the Euro-Atlantic region than the Ukrainian Euromaidan. The standard analysis in the spirit of political realism explains the struggle for Belarus the concept of "containment of Russia", according to which the Russian Federation on its Western border must be separated from the rest of Europe "cordon Sanitaire" of States hostile to her-the border countries.
Therefore, the destruction of the Union of Russia and Belarus — an absolute geopolitical priority of the West. However, in addition to the geopolitics of the Western players have value and the reason that many do not. Belarus is important for the West not only in the context of the struggle with Russia, but also in itself.
The destruction occurred a quarter century ago the model of the Belarusian state and the subordination of Belarus — a matter of honor and the question of the long-awaited rematch for the West, which at the peak of his power defied, a small Republic in Central Europe.
Belarus is an anomaly in Eastern Europe. The only country in the region, to preserve the independence and sovereignty, while the rest of the "delegated" them to the external centers. Belarus refused entry into the EU and NATO and were not included in vassalage to the United States. Belarus has retained the industrial basis of its economy and social sphere, to avoid the fate of the Eastern European periphery, which Western Europe's products are sold, withdrawing in exchange of cheap labour and depriving the country of future generations. Finally, Israel has given itself the moral right to talk on equal terms with the leading countries of the West that confirmed the succession of the Belarusian SSR, and chose its top value the memory of the outstanding contribution of the Belarusian people to the victory over Nazism in the great Patriotic war (signed under the UN Charter is expensive). With this choice the Belarusians got a reason to speak with the Western world are not as timid disciples. The transition of Belarus from Pro-Western course to the sovereign began after the coming to power of Alexander Lukashenko in 1994, several years after the collapse of the USSR, when the power of the West was considered to be unshakable and even Russia tried to integrate into the global hierarchy. The rebellion of a small Eastern European country against a unipolar world at the time seemed suicidal. Five years later, after the election of Lukashenko, President of Belarus NATO bombings destroyed Yugoslavia in exactly the same "sin": can't on European soil to exist a sovereign state, which is not controlled from Brussels and Washington.
Belarus was able to survive in conditions of severe foreign pressure and to avoid the fate of Yugoslavia and the other destroyed in the pursuit of independence States. First of all, thanks to the Union state with Russia.
A military Alliance with a nuclear superpower does not put Minsk "democratic bombing", as Belgrade. Economic Union with its Eastern neighbor allowed the country to survive in conditions of Western sanctions and trade restrictions. Thanks to the Russian "security umbrella" the Belarusian government has suppressed the scenario of "color revolution", while vulnerable to Western pressure the leaders of other countries were forced to concede the power of the street opposition. For the destruction of the Belarusian model of development and integration of the country in the global hierarchy of the foreign office and intelligence services of Western countries have created an extensive infrastructure of various foundations, institutes, centers, educational institutions, social movements, political parties and the media. This infrastructure every few years is included in order to create the conditions for "independence". Over the years of Lukashenka's presidency in Minsk were at least 7 attempts a "color revolution". Two decades in total, the Belarus is under sanctions. Reliance on Russia have allowed the country to repel all attacks and to maintain its sovereignty, save the right to vote.
Therefore, the destruction of the Union with Russia — the main task that stands today in front of the fighters for the "democratization" of the country. The rejection of Union with Russia should be of no consequence, and cause the overthrow of Lukashenko. And with this purpose to Minsk to impose the doctrine of foreign policy of neutrality.
Who works to undermine Belarusian sovereignty?
Organizational structures for oppositional activities have become as old organizations of political refugees (Belarusconference Association (BASE), the Belarusian edition of radio "Freedom") and new media and expert centers, which took over its predecessors. A Prime example of this succession of London ostrogorski Centre, founded with the participation of Belarusians in great Britain and accepted edition of the Journal of Belarusian studies. The ostrogorski centre is positioning itself as a "think-tank" young Belarusians have received a quality education in the West and assessing the processes in Belarus from the height of knowledge. Most attention has been the country's foreign policy, the relations between Minsk and the EU, the state of the armed forces and economy of the Republic. The geographical remoteness of the ostrogorski Centre from the object of study is the exception. In the post-Soviet period, Belarus specialized agencies prefer to stay close to the Belarusian border.
Due to this principle in the capital of the Belarusian political emigration has become a border Vilnius: Lithuania has concentrated most radical force of Belarusian nationalism and became the center of pressure on Minsk.
The capital of Lithuania was the second home to a number of Belarusian opposition parties. They have placed their branch of the Belarusian social democratic party, the Belarusian popular front, the public initiative "Tell the truth". Many functionaries of these organizations go from Vilnius to Minsk actually work.
Many NGOs based in the Lithuanian capital, fulfill the order at undermining the Belarusian state each in his direction.
The Belarusian research Council (BRC) organizes events uniting the opposition against the official Minsk experts, diplomats and public figures.
Belarusian human rights house (BDPC) comes on the "Lukashenko regime" from a human rights perspective, talking about "violation of human rights" in Belarus. Moreover, it provides legal protection to participants of street protests in Minsk.
Belarusian Institute for strategic studies (BISS) is developing an alternative foreign and domestic policy of Belarus. It promotes the idea of liberal reforms in the economy and government and neutrality in foreign policy.
The house of United Belarus (DEB) is responsible for coordinating and forging ties between the Belarusian political refugees. The European Humanities University (EHU) is preparing for the Belarusian opposition shift. YSU has about 2 thousand students, mostly they go to school from Minsk.
Structure of Belarusian nationalism developed in other NATO countries, bordering the Republic. Poland has become the promised land for the opposition media. In Warsaw housed the editorial office of the Internet portal "Charter 97", in białystok — radio Racyja; in addition, the opposition Belarusian journalists have the opportunity to seek employment in broadcasting in the country, the Polish TV channel "Belsat". Finally, in Poland there are tens of thousands of citizens of Belarus that allows to use Polish territory for the expansion of the Belarusian opposition in messengers and social networks.
Registered in Latvia with Belarusian Institute of history and culture (IBEC) spreading nationalist version of history of the Republic, according to which Belarusians have for centuries fought for independence with the Russian and Soviet period was an occupation. Among the "friends" of the Institute — online resource, showcasing Russia's claim to the Bryansk and Smolensk.
All of these migration structures is inextricably linked with the opposition in Belarus itself, which is reproduced on the external contentment.
The foreign network effect is closely intertwined with vnutripolostnoe opposition network comprising several hundred media, NGOs, political parties, or mainstream journalists, bloggers and public experts.
These organizations and individual figures all together, in groups and individually work out multiple areas:
- the destruction of the Union of Belarus with Russia and the geopolitical reorientation of Minsk to the West. This is a key task for all agencies, specializing in international Affairs: Centre for European transformation, international consortium "EuroBelarus", the Liberal club, the Institute of political studies "Political sphere";
- street protests are designed to show the mass opposition ("freedom Day", "Chernobyl way"): the Belarusian national Congress of the party "Belarusian Christian democracy" and the Conservative Christian party of the Belarusian popular front;
- recruitment of supporters: "Young front", a nationalist rock festival "Our day";
- the imposition of the society the main components of the nationalist myth about the history of Belarus (the succession with BNR, rehabilitation collaborators): Movement for freedom, Belarusian movement, the United civil party, the people's memorial "Kurapaty";
- the struggle for the Belarusian language and culture by method of struggle against the Russian language and culture: the flying University, the Belarusian language society;
- the struggle with the construction of the Belarusian nuclear power plant: the Green party, the Belarusian Association of journalists, NGO "Green network";
- the use of human rights discourse to discredit the Belarusian state: the human rights center "Viasna", human rights movement "Our house", "Legal initiative", Centre for legal transformation Lawtrend, "independent" trade unions.
The whole activity of these Champions of "European Belarus" ("zmagarov") koordiniruyutsya with opposition organizations abroad and foreign governments.
Thus, the Centre for European transformation and the consortium "EuroBelarus" is closely connected with the ostrogorski Centre in London. "Reconciliation of hours" the leaders of the oldest nationalist parties happening at seminars and forums in Vilnius, "training ground" for opposition groups remains YSU in the campaign of the centennial celebrations of the BNR joined the U.S. Embassy in Minsk, the European external action service, the President of Poland and the Seimas of Lithuania, and the campaign against the construction of Belarusian NPP was carried out by the Belarusian opposition in tandem with the Lithuanian authorities.
Infrastructure management influence on Belarus is in the hands of Western curators responsible for the direction of Belarusian foreign policy. The unofficial leaders of the Belarusian opposition is carried out directly departments and policies working around the country, and related non-governmental organizations, from which fighters against Lukashenko and Russia funding and valuable installation. The strategic goal of these NGOs is the separation of Belarus from Russia; their joint projects with Belarusian nationalists are reduced to this.
The Belarusian agenda most active in the United States, Germany, Poland and the Baltic States. Of these, the most extensive financial and personnel resources for the work on Belarus have United States. On the official level in Belarus the responsibility of the office of the assistant Secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia, Bureau of European and Eurasian Agency for international development (USAID) and Central intelligence Agency (CIA). The low level of Belarusian-American relations is not conducive to a systematic influence on the Belarus governmental organizations: the interstate dialogue between Minsk and Washington for many years remained in a frozen state and revived only in 2018. Therefore, officials in Washington have relied on NGOs.
The Belarusian direction of fulfill the most authoritative and influential expert and analytical centers of the USA.
- Rand Corporation — the largest "factory" of the military-political thought associated with the Pentagon and special services of the USA. Belarus is interested in in terms of the ratio of forces of the CSTO and NATO in Eastern Europe. The most famous war game in 2016 for the Russian occupation of the Baltic States, which became one of the reasons for the increase of NATO forces near the Belarusian borders. In November of 2018 visited Minsk Rand Corporation analyst Bruce McClintock — Brigadier, a former military attache of the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, former adviser to the head of the Pentagon. The Atlantic Council is based at the Secretariat of the Alliance for information and analytical support of NATO. In recent years, is showing increased attention to Belarus, it organizes expert events. One of them, the conference "the Belarusian dilemma for Minsk and the West", was used for the provocation against the Deputy head of the Belarusian foreign Ministry Oleg Kravchenko: the quote in his speech out of context and presented as an anti-Russian statement.
- The Carnegie Foundation — one of the "veterans" of the work on Belarus in recent years have gained a "second wind" thanks to the arrival of a Slovak scientist Arabica Balash, Director of projects of non-governmental organization PACT, which is one of the first proposed to establish a dialogue with Belarusian authorities, without abandoning the support of the opposition, and make the individual elements of the Belarusian model under the condition of separation of the Republic from Russia.
- Jamestown Foundation — was founded with the support of the CIA to work with the Soviet defectors. Former CIA Director James Woolsey was part of the Board of Trustees. In the post-Soviet years, the Jamestown Foundation became famous for the support of the Chechen militants that triggered a series of scandals in Russian-American relations. The current Director of the Foundation Glen Howard considers Belarus one of the priority directions of its activities, is one of the main lobbyists of the Belarusian doctrine of neutrality.
Center for European policy analysis (CEPA) — to Eastern Europe in General and Belarus in particular throws one of the most renowned of its employees: the former chief of the US Armed forces in Europe (EUCOM) Ben Hodges, a well-known fact that in 2016 he achieved a threefold increase in budget EUCOM, intimidating Congress by the prospect of Russian aggression against NATO allies. Gap military Alliance of the Republic with Russia — dream Hodges; the future President of Lithuania, he punishes to secure the withdrawal from the Belarusian territory of the Russian military bases.
These organizations unite characteristic features:
- their leaders and experts associated with the Pentagon, CIA and other security agencies;
- in the American political and expert community, they are "hawks";
- system the interest of the majority of these organizations to Minsk was discovered relatively recently;
- they are trying to build relations with the legitimate authority of Belarus.
Five years ago the picture was different. American NGOs, traditional activity of which was Belarus, worked only with the opposition, and their connection with the army and US intelligence was not to such an extent obvious. However, this standard work in recent years has not been minimized, although funding from USAID for projects of "exporting democracy" has declined.
With extensive experience in Belarus have American centers "democratization" of the post-Soviet space. They focused on the CIS countries since the Clinton administration. This is supported by the MacArthur Foundation (MAF), the Eurasia Foundation (EF), the German Marshall Fund (GMF), the Fund "open society" of George Soros, Freedom House, Ford Foundation, national endowment for democracy (NED), national democratic Institute of the Democratic party of the USA (NDI), international Republican Institute of the Republican party of the United States (IRI). Some of these organizations were expelled from the country for interfering in domestic politics, NDI and IRI have moved their offices to Vilnius.
The Republic of Belarus is of geopolitical interest to the global powers of the Western world (EU, USA) and regional players (Poland, Sweden, Baltic countries). This outline of the interests embedded socio-political forces in Belarus that advocate the European choice of the country. In the Republic are the opposition media, NGOs receiving foreign funding, Pro-American and Pro-European experts and politicians. Realizing the goal of regional and global actors in Belarus, these forces are trying to solve their own internal political objectives.
Resource infrastructure, the spread of interests of global centers of power is the hierarchical structure.
One of the Central state structures of the USA, responsible for this work, is the Agency for international development (United States Agency for International Development, USAID) at U.S. Department of state (administrator of the Agency and his Deputy are appointed by the President of the United States with the consent of the Senate). USAID supports political and strategic foreign policy goals of the State Department, providing "non-military aid to" strategically important countries, particularly the countries of Eastern Europe and countries that were part of the USSR. Programme USAID annually allocated about 1% of the Federal budget (76,2 billion dollars allocated for 2018). The share of Belarus in this budget is relatively small, but deserves attention in 2018, "assistance to Belarus" was 23 864 000 USD in 2016 and 2017 to 19 000 000, respectively. More than three quarters of this aid is directed at "strengthening democratic political parties, civil society and independent media". The Agency has offices in most countries of the world. The media have repeatedly appeared information about the links USAID with the CIA. In 2012, the Agency was banned in Russia. Official Moscow has accused USAID of trying to influence political processes in Russia through the distribution of grants. There has been a particularly active Agency in the North Caucasus.
Since 1999, USAID has been working in Belarus. For "fun American democratic values" USAID organizes a visit of Belarusian experts, entrepreneurs, leaders of nonprofit organizations in the United States, visits of American experts to Belarus for the "exchange of experience". The Agency also provides grant support to organizations of the third sector in Belarus.
The second organization in the chain is the national endowment for democracy (national Endowment for Democracy, NED). In 2018, the NED budget was 176 million dollars. Main funds come from the American USAID, a minor part from private American corporations. Under the auspices of the democracy development Foundation dedicated to promoting geo-strategic interests of Washington in the world, including support and organization of "color revolutions" through grants and advice. During the whole period of its existence the work of the NED were somehow connected with the CIA. According to the official website, the Foundation financed the opposition movement "Charter 77" in Czechoslovakia, Solidarity in Poland, "Otpor" in Serbia participated in the financial support of the rose Revolution in Georgia, Orange revolution, supported the "democratic forces" during the current Ukrainian crisis (2014 Ukrainian NGOs received NED from 4.5 million U.S. dollars).
The third element of this chain - associated with the Republican party of the United States international Republican Institute (International Republican Institute, IRI), a proclaimed aim of which was to assist individual countries "in building democracy". IRI received funding from USAID through the NED. Among the donors are the government of Canada, Embassy of Australia in East Timor and the British Embassy in Islamabad. In 2018 the budget of the IRI was 87 million dollars. At the end of 2012, the company decided to curtail its programs in the Russian Federation in connection with the tightening of the Russian legislation concerning NGOs funded from abroad – relations of the Institute with Russia began to run through from Warsaw. The work with Belarus is controlled by the Lithuanian office of the Institute.
This level is closely associated with the Democratic party of the United States national democratic Institute for international Affairs (National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, NDI), also receiving funding from the NED. In addition, among the donors are the governments of several countries, corporations, individuals. 38 In 2018 fiscal year budget of the Institute amounted to 141 million U.S. dollars. Contribute to the "democratization" of Belarus since 2000, the Belarusian NDI office is based in Vilnius. With the support of NDI trainings and seminars – taught young opposition electoral technologies and the organization of election observation. The main objectives of the Institute, presented the opposition political forces are consolidating, creating a recognizable brand for regional coalitions, the participation in all election campaigns. In the draft NDI involved almost all opposition political forces in Belarus: the Belarusian social-democratic party, "For freedom", "Tell the truth", the Belarusian popular front and others At the level of civil society NDI supports the creation of networks of NGOs and developing plans for advocacy campaigns. The Institute carries out work on promotion of Pro-European attitudes among the population through projects on simplification of visa regime and cross-border cooperation.
USAID also works the Eurasia Foundation (Eurasia Foundation, EF) to the Board which includes figures such as Anders Aslund (1991-1994 Advisor to the Russian Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar and then – President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma, President of Kyrgyzstan A. Akaev, Prime Minister of Latvia V. Dombrovskis; apologist of the concept of Eurasian integration as "Putin's neo-Imperial project"), James Baker (in 1985-1988 he was the head of the administration of U.S. President Ronald Reagan, then US Secretary of state, is considered one of the architects of the "Treaty talks" foreign policy of Mikhail Gorbachev), Madeleine Albright (in 1997-2001 U.S. Secretary of state, a supporter of the expansionist policies of the United States – by the way, is when it happened the bombing of Yugoslavia), etc. In 2018 the budget of the Fund amounted to 23 million US dollars. Through the small grants program of the "Eurasia" sponsored by the non-state media and projects rather radical political groups. In Belarus, "Eurasia" is also actively engaged in projects "development of business education" and the creation of business associations, which popularitywith the idea of economic liberalization in the Republic of Belarus. The Foundation provides support of the NGO "Belarusian Association of journalists", human rights center "Viasna", Poo "Fund them. L. Sapieha", "Narodnaya Volya" center "Supolnasts" and other Pro-Western projects.
Well-known in the former Soviet Union, the "open society Institute" (Open Society Institute, OSI) is financing the protest movements around the world. Budget "Open society" are personal funds American billionaire George. Soros. In 2018, the Institute implemented the program for a total amount of 827 million dollars. Despite the fact that the Institute was forced to leave Minsk in 1997 after a conflict with the authorities, open society continues to address issues directly concerning RB.
"Belarusian issue" in the United States is actively involved in the German Foundation. Marshall in the United States (the German Marshall Fund of the United States, GMF, the budget in 2019 - $ 39 million. USA). Among the major donors Fund the U.S. Department of state (USAID), foreign Minister of Sweden, Norway, Japan, NATO, a number of corporations. Separate structure of the GMF dedicated to the support of the opposition media and activists, the Foundation for democracy in Belarus (The Fund for Belarus Democracy, FBD). From 2005 to 2018 FBD supported around 650 projects in the total amount of grants 12.8 million U.S. dollars. In addition to the above funds, the Belarusian issues in the United States for a number of grantmaking organizations and institutions: Freedom House, Ford Foundation, Jamestown Foundation, Foundation Charles Stewart Mott Foundation, the MacArthur Foundation etc.
Influence on the situation in Belarus is trying to provide the Swedish international development Agency (Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, SIDA), administered by the Ministry of foreign Affairs of Sweden. SIDA has regional offices in 50 countries. In the Agency's budget to 2019 has allocated over € 60 million. The priority is given to projects in the field of "human rights" through the development of cooperation between Swedish and Belarusian NGOs, projects aimed at the development of market relations.
Towards Belarus is actively working a number of German funds, each of which promotes the interests of certain political forces Germany: close to the party "Christian democratic Union" the Fund named after Konrad Adenauer (Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, KAS, 97% of the Fund – the budget of Germany, the rest of the donation; in 2018 the budget of the FOUNDATION amounted to 160 million euros, the Belarusian representative office of KAS is located in Vilnius, the Fund repeatedly declared the support of the opposition, and the Director of the Belarusian representation A. Brakel assures us that this support was not financial), associated with the political party "the Union 90/Green" Fund G. Boll Foundation (Heinrich Böll Stiftung, HBS), liberal, ideologically close to the Free democratic party of Germany, the F. Naumann Foundation (Friedrich Naumann Stiftung für die Freiheit, FNSt; popularizes the idea of the necessity of economic liberalization RB), biased in the SPD, the Fund named after F. Ebert Foundation (Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, FES), and other (Fund Luxemburg, K. Levelstyle the Fund, the Fund H. Seidel).
In addition to these structures, the realization of the interests of the US, EU and individual European States sponsored by a number of smaller funds. Various projects in Belarus, funded from the European Commission, the European Bank for reconstruction and development. Putting pressure on the official Minsk, in particular, in the liberalization of the economy, is carried out, including through loan programs and loans from the world Bank and the International monetary Fund.
If the world powers (EU and US) are "donor democracy" and provide the resource support, the countries of the Baltic-black sea region (Poland and the Baltic States) can be called "democratic miracle". Receiving funding from the United States and EuroGrand, and to the extent possible by allocating resources from their own budgets, Warsaw and the Baltic capitals convert to the interests of Washington and the EU in Belarus in specific political projects, simultaneously solving their own tasks in a neighboring state.
Thus, the accumulation of Western funding and redirect it in the direction of the "democratization" of Belarus are: Polish Foundation.Casimir Pulaski (Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego, the Foundation's sponsors - the Council of Europe, the Foundation. Konrad Adenauer, the Foundation. St. Batory, as well as a number of companies in the defence industry), Fund them. St. Stefan Batory Foundation (Fundacja im. Stefana Batorego, financed by the Polish project "School of leaders" preparing the Pro-Western political elite in the former Soviet republics; the budget of the Fund consists of the funds of the Institute "open society" George. Soros, NED, Foundation "Solidarity" and private donations), the Foundation "Solidarity" (Fundacja Solidarności Międzynarodowej, funded by the U.S. USAID; in addition to the standard set of measures for dealing with public opposition activists involved in the organization of visits of observation; in 2018, the Foundation supported 18 projects in Belarus on a total sum more than 600 thousand euros), established in 1989 at the initiative of the Polish opposition and educators from the American Federation of teachers Foundation "Education for democracy" (Fundacja Edukacja dla Demokracji, the Fund implements the program RITA, through the formation of "new leaders" focused on liberal market values; involving a total of 1357 students, including 913 Ukrainians, Belarusians 225 and 219 of the Russians).
The Polish-American freedom Foundation (Polsko-Amerykańska Fundacja Wolności, among the members of the Board of Directors of – the U.S. Ambassador to Poland, C. Mull, and is also known for its anti-Russian speeches, the political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski, Chairman of the Board – journalist E. Nagorski declared persona non grata in the Soviet Union in 1982; funded by USAID) established in the USA, but with representation in Warsaw, aims "to share the Polish experience in transformation with other post-socialist countries". In the field of international cooperation the Foundation is implementing a scholarship program to them. L. Kirkland (Program Stypendialny im. Lane a Kirklanda), under which grants for training in a magistracy/postgraduate study in Poland. The program has a bad reputation in the Republic of Belarus: many of the participants to conceal their identity to her. The opposite trends are observed in Ukraine: the lion's share of participants demonstrating rapid career growth.
In 2005 in Poland there is another structure to support the democratization of Belarus – the Foundation "Freedom and democracy" (Fundacja Wolność i Demokracja, funded by the government of Poland, Swedish SIDA, a division of the U.S. Department of state, Freedom House, the guide includes many participants of the dissident movement, Poland - Z. Romaszewski, A. Lipinski, R. Tyshkevich). The reason for the establishment of the Fund was the closure of two Polish magazines in Belarus. The official purpose of the Foundation sounds of the Messianic: "assistance to poles in the democratic transition in post-Soviet countries". The main objective of "Freedom and democracy" is to "support" the Polish media in Belarus, Ukraine and Lithuania. In addition, the Fund is engaged in "preserving the memory of Polish soldiers who died fighting against the Soviet regime from 1944 to 1963".
In addition to funds, the main task of which is resource provision, in Poland a number of research institutions involved in Belarusian problems: humanitarian issues are handled by the Institute of Slavic studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences (Instytut Polskiej Akademii Nauk Slawistyki, ISPAN), issues of culture and language is also involved in the Polish Institute in Minsk (disseminates Polish language and culture in the Republic of Belarus), the economy of Belarus is busy Center for social and economic research (Centrum Analiz Społeczno-Ekonomicznych CASE, the Belarusian center of CASE since 2007). The majority of Polish research institutes, involving in its work the Belarusian perspective, focused on the evaluation of political processes: the Polish Institute of international Affairs (Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych, PISM, financial support of the Ministry of foreign Affairs of Poland, Visegrad Fund, European Commission), Centre for Eastern studies. M. Carp (Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich, OSW, mostly financed from the Polish budget, the Director of OSW – Advisor of the Polish government O. Osica), Centre for East European studies of University of Warsaw (Studium Europy Wschodniej Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego, SEW UW, offers scholarships to participate in a one-year course of political science for candidates from Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and Kaliningrad region, with experience in political activities).
In addition to foundations and research centers, according to the Belarusian direction has a number of other organizations and programmes: the "Group Abroad" (Grupa Zagranica, a platform that integrates 59 a Polish NGO specialized in the field of international relations), the governmental programme "Polish aid" (Polska pomoc, aimed at supporting developing countries, through the financing of the TV channel Belsat TV, radio Racyja, European radio for Belarus, "emigrated" from Minsk to Lithuania European Humanities University and the granting of scholarships to Belarusians in Poland), the Internet portal "Free Belarus" (Inicjatywa Wolna biał oruś), "Polish society" ("Wspolnota Polska", specializiruetsya on the protection of the Polish minority abroad).
The strategy of overthrow
The intractability of the Belarusian state technology "color revolutions" forced the West to work with the legitimate leadership of the country. Goal — the overthrow of the "last dictatorship of Europe" — remains unchanged, but for the sake of its achievement, the agents of "democratization" of Belarus have demonstrated a willingness to compromise with Lukashenka. The main condition for the compromise Lukashenka's refusal of an Alliance with Russia, primarily the military. Belarus imposed a doctrine of foreign policy of neutrality, the true meaning of which is deprivation of the Republic of the Russian "security umbrella". Relations between Belarus and the West is evolving in cycles. After phase confrontation phase should be warming, which is replaced by a new confrontation. Warming is usually associated with worsening of relations between the West and Russia. In terms of geopolitical confrontation snatching the country from the Union with Russia has become a priority, and for the sake of Western capital overcomes its idiosyncrasy in relation to Lukashenko and probed the ground for negotiations with Minsk. In the conditions of thaw for Western functionaries window of opportunity for penetration into the country. These features are used including the revitalization of the street opposition. The result is always the transition to stage confrontation. Attempts of dialogue with the official Minsk, paradoxically, being made in parallel with attempts to "rock" Belarus and to bring the power of cadres loyal to the West through mass protests.
To achieve this goal in Belarus has started to promote the doctrine of foreign policy of neutrality, according to which the Republic should abandon the Alliance with Russia, to withdraw from the Eurasian economic Union and the Organization of collective security Treaty and declare itself a neutral country: it is possible the normal relations of Minsk with the international community.
The basis for pushing the country to the status of neutrality was adopted in the country after the events of the 2014 foreign policy the concept of "donor safety". According to this concept, Belarus is a country-peacemaker, whose task is to act as a mediator in resolving international conflicts, to provide its territory for negotiations between the warring parties and to ensure its peaceful diplomacy, peace and stability in Eastern Europe. In many ways, the concept of "donor safety" prevailed through the negotiations, "Norman Quartet" in Minsk on the settlement of the conflict in the Donbass. After the conclusion of the Minsk agreements in the diplomatic circles of Belarus has become a popular idea to make Minsk a permanent venue for negotiations on the settlement of conflicts. The project of the Minsk site was due to not only the national interests of Belarus, which include the increasing international importance of the Republic and creation of conditions for equal dialogue with NATO.
In 2012, Freedom House and the Center for European policy analysis (CEPA) jointly released in Washington an analytical report in which he proposed the scenario of the overthrow of the "last dictator of Europe" Alyaksandr Lukashenka. According to their plan, in Minsk starts a perpetual protest, Lukashenko runs in Abkhazia, while the legitimate ruler recognized by the President of the BNR Rada in exile Ivonka Survilla, who comes from Canada and restores succession to Belarus, Belarusian people's Republic.
Seven years after this report, leading expert of the CEPA, the former commander of us forces in Europe Ben Hodges came to the part of the U.S. delegation to Minsk to tell about Lukashenko neutral Belarus.
In the delegation were Michael carpenter — senior Director, Center for diplomacy and global engagement to them. Biden, University of Pennsylvania, in the past, the special foreign policy adviser to Vice U.S. President Joe Biden and Deputy assistant Secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia. In 2013-2014 he was one of the curators of the Kiev "Maidan". Another lobbyist for Belarusian neutrality — Director of PACT, a freelance expert of the Carnegie endowment Balas Arabic — known as the organizer of the "democratic protests" in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. In particular, he among many had a hand in the "orange revolution" of 2004 and the "Euromaidan" 2014 in Ukraine. Now Arabic convinces Belarusian colleagues of the necessity of withdrawal of Russian bases from the territory of Belarus, intimidating their potential "Russian aggression". From his interview follows that the nationalists attempted to seize the government House in 2010, was... Russia. Although the Belarusian secret services pointed directly at the organization of the riots the fault of Western funds: NED, IRI and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation and other.
Today, these NGOs organize scientific conferences and release reports on the Belarusian neutrality, arguing that Belarus needs only to abandon the military Alliance with Russia to become a full member of the international community. Pushed to the refusal of the Russian "security umbrella", which only allowed Minsk to avoid the forced "democratization" on the Ukrainian model, without risking in response to the crackdown on "peaceful protest" should be "democratic bombing" on the model of the late Yugoslavia. A military Alliance with Russia has for decades been the basis of the protective immunity of the Belarusian state technology "regime change". Today Belarus want to deprive. This is the main meaning of the concept of the Belarusian neutrality: neutrality is possible, but the sovereignty — is no more.
1. Agents of neutrality. Technologies of destruction of the sovereignty of Belarus: analytical report RuBaltic.Ru / Alexander Nosovich, resp. edited by S. V. Rekeda. M.: Analytical portal RuBaltic.Ru, 2019. 48 p
2. The Baltic States and Ukraine are unable to arrange the "Maidan" in Belarus. URL: https://www.RuBaltic.Ru/article/politika-i-obshchestvo/27032017-pribaltika-i-ukraina-ne-smogliustroit-maydan-v-belarusi
3. "Think-tank" NATO roughly framed the Belarusian diplomat. URL: http://eurasia.expert/mozgovoy-tsentr-nato-grubo-podstavil-belorusskogo-diplomata
4. American General-the Lieutenant in resignation of Ben Hodges: what affects Ukraine affects Poland, Lithuania, Belarus. URL: https://ru.delfi.lt/news/politics/amerikanskijgeneral-
5. Anatomy of the "European choice". NGOs of Poland and the Baltic States in the Republic of Belarus. Analytical report RuBaltic.Ru. Kaliningrad, 2015.
6. The Baltic States and Ukraine are unable to arrange the "Maidan" in Belarus. URL: https://www.RuBaltic.Ru/article/politika-i-obshchestvo/27032017-pribaltika-i-ukraina-ne-smogliustroit-