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Mnogohodovki: Russia, Belarus and the West after the bloody Sunday in Minsk
Material posted: -Publication date: 13-01-2011

Since the election of President of Belarus took almost a month. However, as the analysis shows, held on 19 December "elections" not only did not solve any internal or external political problems of modern Belarus, but only aggravated them. Only one list of these problems will take a lot of space, so will mention only one of them, the main legitimacy of the election of Alexander Lukashenko the Belarusian head of state is a big question.

Accordingly, this factor unbearable burden on the Belarusian authorities in conducting domestic policy, and in achieving foreign policy goals. In this article I will focus on the foreign policy side of the issue.


Since "bloody Sunday" time experts conducted a fairly detailed analysis of what happened. However, this analysis is mainly diachronic in nature, i.e. it considers the incident of 19 December events in isolation from a temporal (historical) flow, in which the presidential election is not the end of the battle, and only one of its stages. The consideration of this event in terms of a synchronic approach allows to identify a lot of other much more interesting aspects that allow you to see beyond the "December uprising" in Minsk fundamentally different "peaks and range".

I propose to look at what happened not from the point of view of that on December 19th resulted in a presidential campaign, but from the fact that 20 Dec began a new phase of political mnogohodovki from the main political forces of Belarus and the main foreign players in the Belarusian political field. And this view allows you to see that on December 19, was only completed the next stage of the struggle for the vector of geopolitical development of the Republic, which is literally just 20 Dec moved into a new, even more dynamic and tough phase due to the fact that, unfortunately, 19 Dec has not decided any internal or external political problems of modern Belarus.


If we proceed from the position that I have outlined above, it is possible to build quite solid and internally consistent position as the key political players within the Republic and major foreign players in Belarus (Russia, EU, USA). We will begin a "debriefing" with the analysis of the multiple passes USA and the EU.

First, the results of the Belarusian elections, in which the jail originally had seven (!) of the ten presidential candidates (a case unprecedented in the world history), says that even at the preliminary stage is unknown until the players brought from the blow of the Belarusian repressive machine of some leading representatives of the Belarusian opposition, specifically, only one person - Alyaksandr Milinkevich (leader of the movement "For freedom"). This man was saved in order to then, when his principal, and that it is necessary to stress a more radical political rivals behind bars, he resumed with the Belarusian Pro-Western opposition political dialogue with the EU and the United States, limited to a fairly mild requirements of the Belarusian regime.

In this context, appear quite logical questions about the forces that in the summer of last year, allegedly brought by Alexander Milinkevich from the "big politics", and the motivation of their actions. Recall that in the summer there is information that foreign sponsors from France and Poland refused to Finance Milinkevich, with the result that he was forced to withdraw from the election. However, given the role that currently plays Milinkevich, this understanding of the incident should be revised: it is out of the presidential campaign was by far the best Belarusian authorities, who thus kept "soft" negotiator for future dialogue with the EU.

However, the conclusion of Milinkevich at the time of the game was impossible without the approval of the progress of certain political forces in Europe who are also behind Milinkevich. Launched were Anatoly Lebedko, which, however, the Belarusian authorities decided to punish, in contrast to Milinkevich.

Now Milinkevich with other equally "pleasant personal communication policy" (primarily, I mean, of course, Yaroslav Romanchuk), is preparing to lead a so-called constructive opposition (3-5 people), which is the highest pleasure will be allowed to be part of the future of the Belarusian Parliament, in order to demonstrate the EU and the US so-called "progress". The fact that the arrival of the Belarusian Parliament of gentlemen in no way do not become a threat to the Belarusian regime, because their line is no different from the foreign policy of Mackay-Martynov. They are twin brothers who are separated yet kind of ideological barrier to a pure misunderstanding. Accordingly, after the destruction of the real political opponents of the regime can be tolerated in Parliament those who do not pose a threat of power, and becomes one of its elements.

Fix - certain forces in the Republic of Belarus and the United States and the EU withdrew from the strike Milinkevich and similar characters.

Second, the analysis of intermediate results of work of the Belarusian repressive machine shows that her main goal is not only to destroy the current Pro-Western opposition infrastructure in the country, but paving over those public initiatives which were able to give this campaign at least some sense. Hundreds of searches, seizures of hundreds of media (computers, laptops, phones, etc.) said about the desire to totally clean up the current opposition. The reason for such action can be only one - to make room for other opposition, as was shown above, constructive, against which all the rest will fall initially in the category of terrorists and bandits.

Third, lately in the West some political circles, have intensified criticism of the main economic integration initiatives of Russia to post-Soviet countries - first the Customs Union, and at the present time and the common economic space. Similarly, keeping the Lukashenka regime allows certain forces in the West to discredit in the eyes of their constituents and the political component of integration initiatives of Moscow. A logical chain of primitive - Russia covers the Lukashenko regime, respectively, all of which makes Russia the former Soviet Union, does not serve the cause of democracy, and the Imperial goals of the strengthening of Moscow. Accordingly, this Russian line is at odds with the democratic and liberal ideals, who are committed to the West. Consequently, Russia is not democratic, and the West should not cooperate and to continue the fight. Ie is a logic of confrontation.

The above trends can be regarded as a desire of certain forces in the Republic (which is natural), and the US-EU to keep Belarus in the Lukashenka regime (when giving it some political gloss) with the aim of preserving the confrontational potential in the Russian-European and wider Russian-Western relations. And this line prevailed in the Western approach throughout the election campaign until 19 December: the West was ready to recognize the former Lukashenko with a few cosmetic modifications of the regime and permanently closed the Belarusian issue.

The essence of the other political line in the West was to still bring about regime change Lukashenko to democratize the Republic and make it an example of positive political and economic cooperation between Europe and Russia. With this end, began to be actively new for Belarus civil initiative "Tell the truth", headed by well-known in the Republic of the poet Vladimir Nyaklyaeu. She played as a Pro-Western and Pro-Russian field in the eyes of the average voter, thanks to the competent and professional work in a short time managed to become an independent political player in the country. Later it was lifted and the campaign of Andrei Sannikov, "European Belarus". These forces by mid-summer could not only ruin the scenario apathetic elections, which carried the first group, but hard to take the initiative in their own hands in the late stages of the election campaign.

Somewhere in the middle of the autumn political radicals within the Republic, it became apparent that, despite efforts to hold elections in their script fails: a) too high risks; b) growing fears that the West will not comply and at the last moment will turn the official Minsk around your finger. As a result, the campaign strategy of the authorities was reconsidered and the rate was made a provocation in the election day. Since the crisis, mostly the supporters of radical action, the main goal of the authorities at the final stage of the elections was cut off Nyaklyaeu from the decision-making process in the area. First, only Nyaklyaeu with his authority could reason with how ill-considered radicalism of some other candidates, and outright cowardice of others. Secondly, he had a real plan of action in the square, which dramatically reduces the possibility of other candidates to influence what is happening.

The authority did not see for myself other scenarios other than to run the power scenario in action. Further was a trick. The leaders had no choice how to captivate a crowd, then in the case entered provocateurs. The final chord was taken by the commandos. Sober and starting to understand what he had done, at the present time, the official Minsk is seeking support for its action lines of the forces to the West, which have been previously entered into the previous agreement.

What we have in the end. Certain players in the Republic of Belarus and the EU-US put all radical and non-systemic political players in the country over the bars, simultaneously withdrawing from the blow of his players (Milinkevich, Romanchuk, etc.). Separate the impact caused by the UCP as a Russian-speaking party of small and medium business after the betrayal Romanchuk, the party will not soon be fine, if off at all, and the campaign Uladzimir Nyaklyaeu's "Tell the truth", who also worked in the Pro-Russian political niche. The former opposition defeated. There will be new elections, its leaders will meet in Parliament at the time, as their colleagues will be in prison. No bargaining with the EU-US regarding current inmates will not. Will be a bargain at the opposition to "quotas" in the future Parliament. After the agreement, the government of Belarus will try again to start a political drift to the West.

That, subject to the foregoing, and subject play together the leadership of the Republic and a number of the forces in the West, could do to the leadership of Russia? Not to recognize the elections? - Their results are de facto still recognizes the West and immediately starts a new game with the ruling clan on anti-Russian basis. Lukashenko also get additional cards for charges of Russia that Russia is obstructing the sustainable development of the Republic. In principle, this idea was already voiced by the Belarusian leader, and the two detained Russian citizens there. While this line of attack is muted. But you can imagine that would be the case if Russia did not recognize the elections.

At the same time, official Minsk can not sting Moscow, and forced to develop mad activity in the Western direction. Such activity in any case would begin after the elections. Another thing, what conditions it runs now. Therefore, given the fact that the game is "parliamentary elections-2012" between the leadership of Belarus and the West is just beginning, the Kremlin only had to recognize the election results, not only economically to increase their influence in Belarus with the help of the EEA, but also to maintain political leverage over the situation. In fact, this is the only justification for the position taken by the Kremlin after a December 19 against what is happening in Belarus.

In this regard, it is clear than that vexed EU officials - that their ill-conceived actions, Lukashenka has ripped off so beautifully combines the running game: "old" (radical and non-system) opposition, and so would be merged, and the new (white and fluffy) and so have entered into the composition of the new Parliament. Only the West and the Belarusian authorities would be all in white. And West with peace of mind for yourself could for years to close the "Belarusian issue". Instead, quiet and combines cutting attendants, the West is forced again to take over the role of protector of the poor and downtrodden, to resume the hard political rhetoric, to recall the human rights and other democratic shenanigans.

That is the main reason for the anger of the West. Moreover, Russia has solved all its tasks of maintaining its political and economic influence in the country, in addition to more tightening the noose around the neck of the Belarusian regime, and the official Minsk to his ill-considered and hysterical actions have caused irreparable damage to the Belarusian-Western coalition anti-Russian basis.

Therefore, at present the main issue in the West, around which the debate is conducted, it is not a question of sanctions against the Belarusian regime, and on how to keep Lukashenka as a negotiator with the Belarusian side, or not. After received 19 Dec slap certain forces in the EU and US stand for something, to change the chief of the Belarusian company. The mechanisms of this shift is understandable and run-in. Other political forces in the EU and USA are interested to be punished, perhaps severely punish Lukashenko for making a puncture, but keep it as the lead negotiator and the new phase (parliamentary elections) to achieve their goals.

We can not exclude that the EU-US overall best existence of the Republic of politological around which to spin the topic of future deputies-oppositionists. Then the fact that wiring Nyaklyaeu Milinkevich in different corners of the ring and their subsequent different political destiny can be seen as links in a very well thought out chain of events. Use same as manure for others is one of the favorite diplomatic receptions of the West. Now the West has got a great opportunity to have a very serious pressure on the Belarusian authorities with the aim of achieving their goals, but not in dialogue mode and in a mode of ultimatums. However, the Belarusian government itself is to blame.

Thus, after December 19, the following can be observed. The actions of the ruling clan in the night from 19 to 20 December, the election of the President is not only decided, but on the contrary, radically intensified all domestic and foreign political problems of the Republic. The space of maneuver for the ruling clan is sharply narrowed. However, both Russia and the US-EU has achieved its objectives. We can expect continued pressure from their party because the current leadership of the Republic moreover, it has a very serious problem with the legitimacy - he has no resources, neither political nor economic for long maneuvering in such a narrow space.

In addition, after December 19, dramatically increased the probability of imprisonment between Russia on the one hand, and US-EU, on the other hand, a certain agreement on the Belarusian topic, which will not only remove the accumulated contradictions of the two sides in the Belarusian direction, but it is legitimate to resolve this situation before the next presidential election.


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