First, the online stream showed that the first half hour the audience was generally dead. Lukashenko could not establish contact with those who are the flesh and blood is a system, even in "opposition". Even a year ago these people sat with wildly burning eyes and listened to every word of the leader, fearing even a second to relax in front of the cameras, knowing that then it will all be considered, analyzed and reported with evidence.
Today it was deaf to the words of the leader of the meeting that is tough and occasionally even arrogantly looked down on the leader, who tried to find a contact with those who used to be afraid even of the rustle of the night in the next room. The last press conference clearly showed that the elite "ate" and the Belarusian leader. You can put ten or even a hundred officials, but you cannot put a thousand. You can lure a pack, but sooner or later the pack will want more freedom. And it is obvious that the salaries of the Belarusian elite and the lowest in all of Europe and funny by Russian standards.
Lukashenko was left alone as a man, and in governing the country. The elite no longer his own. Not him. These people will just sit and wait when this is all over, then under the guise of the new government, tear the legacy of the Soviet Belarus. They have already agreed on everything. Then the security forces will not help. So the last press conference seemed like a big personal defeat Lukashenko as a person and as President. Otherwise — why more than 7 (!!) hours to convince the audience how everything is good as everything is controlled and to share those totally secondary and unnecessary details that those people know so well, while major questions remained unanswered? Hyperinflation of the highest authorities there.
Then periodically Lukashenko has established a relationship with the audience, but very briefly, mostly for controversial reasons — whether the orders of the interior Minister to arrest the head of the Rosselkhoznadzor Sergey Dankvert or refusal to put the signature under the Customs code of the EAEU, as if someone else is needed, except Belarus , all the other signatures have already been set and without the signature of the Minsk document and so will come into force on 1 July 2017. Why was the communication? — Very simply: present read the new signals that they were convinced in only one — Akela all. Arrived. And then again went into emotional hibernation.
They are emotionally already fenced off from the leader, and it was very noticeable. Therefore, Lukashenko is so long and performed it unconsciously, he very well felt the loss of contact, so I tried to restore it and then, as he was accustomed, to get all emotional and consolidate dominance. And here all the time happened open. The ending proved to be lubricated. Everyone was tired, but contact was never established. So in any case it is no accident the President of Belarus dropped at the end of the following phrase: "I am outgoing person. I had a little left." It is not necessary to be seven spans in a forehead to understand that now the fermentation of the elite will take very active forms. And that the security forces? Will this background activity? Why? It is in Russia, they were able to realize their goals as a class and to pull the country out of the abyss, and in Belarus — nothing like that near there.
Secondly, despite the abundance of raised at the press conference, however, none of them have not stirred the audience, because really there's not a problem — it was all classic domestics, which many in the life of every state and what attending the event, officials and journalists face every day. And that's all they were just not interested. Hot was only one theme — Russian and Belarusian-Russian relations. In principle, it would be possible to stick to one of the topic about forty minutes to go.
What have we heard? Heard all the same theses — Belarus is clamped, cheat, threaten and so on and so forth. Belarusian opposition press cheered upon hearing "cherished" — "sovereignty is more expensive than oil". As small children, which are still spoon-fed by parents. Belarusian sovereignty is only an idea. It will not be full. The current and any possible future government in Belarus is only as long as there is Russian oil. There will be no oil — will not be the Belarusian economy and wages, and the people will sweep away any power.
This youthful infantilism, bordering on teenage idiocy, every one of adult men can check one simple thing — go home and tell his wife that now they — he, his wife and their children — will live on the salary, and his ideas about "Skeet", "aprioriy" or "transcendental". I think five minutes is enough each competent wife to tell her husband the truth, not in their personal relationships or at work, but in the Universe.
There was even a new "interesting" ideas to start arresting Russian officials, in particular, the head of the Rosselkhoznadzor Sergey Dankvert. Dankvert heard it. And said he did not understand how now you can move on Belarusian-Russian relations, if upon arrival, any Russian official to the Republic he would be in danger of arrest. In response, the Rosselkhoznadzor has taken the decision that from February 6 will be reduced supplies of meat from all meat processing enterprises in Minsk region. Quite a logical decision. The tactics of Russia is clear — for every insult, rudeness, being indiscreet is to punish the ruble.
The situation is similar for oil. There is already Alexander Lukashenko said that Russia is considering the option of reducing the supply to the Republic of oil to 12 million tons. Quite a logical decision. The official Minsk does not fulfill its obligations to its allies or economic (smuggling sanctioned goods) or political (the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the reunification of the Crimea), is trying to torpedo the signing of important documents of the Eurasian, leads behind Russia's games with Baku, Warsaw, Washington and it requires unilateral economic concessions from Moscow. It does not happen.
That means a reduction of Russian oil exports to 12 million tons? In 2016, the volume of oil processing at Mozyr oil refinery compared with the year 2015, when the Republic was delivered 24 million tons, decreased by 20% and amounted to 10 million tons. If the supply will be reduced to 12 million tons and Mozyr oil refinery will process only about 6 million tons. This would not mean that the plant is on the verge of profitability. But the question is — petroleum products was the basis of Belarusian exports about 40-45%. And went mainly to the West, where the Republic was received currency.
There will be no oil — export will fall — there will be currency will be lower wages and generally would upset the whole social sphere. There's even a $ 3 billion IMF will not help. Well, give once the loan — and they will not subsidize every year to $ 3 billion Belarusian economy. Looks like you just have. As said first Vice Prime Minister Vasily Matyushevsky, in the negotiations with the IMF, the problematic issues were two: "the First question of the level of cost recovery utilities. In principle, we found all the junction and some part of this project we have operational. The second issue is the strategy of increasing the efficiency of management of state-owned enterprises. In principle, here, too found all interchange, so problems here will not."
In General, according to him, these issues are "in a high degree of readiness and elaboration": "the Left, Alexander G., to make a political decision to enter the program." In turn, Lukashenko stressed that the differences with IMF in these matters there are almost no: "the Only discrepancy in the cost of housing services: they are required in 2017 or 2018, one hundred percent payment. Sooner or later we to it will come. I requested that they entered the position that we are now the situation is such that we will not be able to impose to the population an absolute payment, so that was time-stretched. So here we would agree".
That is, the Belarusian government is blackmailing Moscow that refuses tit in the hand of Russian oil, and are willing to exchange it for pie in the sky — the IMF loan. As reported IA REGNUM source in Moscow, one in Moscow to protest against such a mode of furnishing of Belarusian independence will not. Lawsuit against Russia over oil, which as said by Lukashenka, is generally pestnya. Anyway, what Bank in the US filed to the court on the fed. As they say beekeepers — initiative in the spirit of "bees against honey".
The third key moment of the press conference, for which all, in principle, was conceived, was altogether an interesting statement of the Belarusian head of state that he sees no point in signing the Customs code of the Eurasian economic Union if Russia does not fulfill all the requirements of Belarus for oil and gas. Therefore sees no point in going to Moscow on 9 February for the holding of the Supreme state Council of the Union state: "these (oil and gas — news Agency REGNUM ) problems I don't even touch this code. On other issues, because this is the life of our state. I have not signed the Customs code, because a lot of what was not working".
In addition, the Belarusian head of state said that withdrawing the Belarusian specialists of the bodies of the EAEU: "What do they sit there and get paid, I'm afraid you even call her. I probably still don't quite know how much they earn. Get, they didn't earn. Why would such an organization? If we want to see in the integration structures, we should behave decently to each against the other, we need to support each other and not create any additional obstacles."
You can, of course, to build the dialogue in the spirit of "mom spite frostbitten ears", but it's not something that is unproductive, and counterproductive. Dankvert it showed on February 3. The Kremlin has also reacted: "From 2011 to 2015 duty free annually supplied 18-23 million tonnes of oil to Belarusian partners. During this period, the Russian budget received less than 22.3 billion. All this is nothing as direct and indirect support of the Union of the Belarusian state. Belarus allocated more than $ 6 billion of loans in various tranches, and this burden was placed an additional burden on the budget of the Russian Federation. In addition, $ 2.5 billion of various tranches Minsk received in the form of loans through the Eurasia Foundation stabilization and development. Russia has provided and continues to provide large-scale economic, political and other assistance to Belarus on the basis of the special allied character of relations between the two countries. With regard to the economic and commercial disputes that arise in business activities, they should be resolved in a peaceful manner by negotiations. Moscow expects that the set of disagreements that currently appears in the bilateral agenda, will be settled through such negotiations", — noted in the Kremlin.
Tried Lukashenko and threatened Moscow that the actions of the FSB to establish order on the border, that Belarus has not become a thoroughfare of Europe, may lead to a "serious conflict": "Some reference points lined up. The question arises: what is this, Russia began to carry out the delimitation and demarcation of the border? So it is a negotiation process. This can result in a serious conflict. We're not agreed on how the map will be the boundary on the ground. Only after this it is necessary to install some signs and points. You can get into someone else's territory. And to grab a piece of someone else's boundaries. So I don't think the Russians decide to do so. This is a serious conflict. So you can dostuchatsya God knows what".
To dostuchatsya God knows what is really possible. Russia three times already outlined the categorical unacceptability of extradition of a Russian citizen blogger Lapshin Azerbaijan. However, Lukashenko is ready to supply Baku's interests above the interests of the CSTO allies — Armenia and Russia — and give Lapshin Azerbaijan. He was confirmed on 3 February:
Therefore, we can say that the ball is on the side of Lukashenko. He wants economic conflict or serious — all in his power, since he is the President of a sovereign and independent state. The General tone of the comments in Russia about his latest press conference shows very well the following opinion: "the Minsk time to decide: if Belarus is an absolutely independent country, then the cost of oil and gas, as well as admission to the Russian market should be resolved on a common basis. If we have a Federal state, it moves like unilateral abolition of visas with third countries or extradition of Russian citizens to third countries may not in principle be".
In this regard, I want to say only one more thing. Before the press conference, on 2 February, almost from each "FM-iron," all sorts of experts accused the news Agency REGNUM that the information of one of the sources the Agency about readiness of Belarus to exit from the EEU and the CSTO is unreliable. As shown by the press conference of the Belarusian leader and response, in the same day, Moscow's reaction, this scenario, unfortunately, for the Belarusian citizens are very close to reality. Just if the Republican leadership make the choice, it will take place not in Minsk, and in Moscow scenario — without "howling and screaming".
Moscow does not believe in tears. Like Ukraine, rasplakalas with the past, sooner or later you will lose everything that she received in the Soviet era, will end the era of Lukashenko in the case of exit from Belarus Union and the Eurasian projects. Not understand it is not only the blind.
And even a blind man can now see the cold determination of the Kremlin: Russia has a big heart. Even traitors of our sacred shared past and our common heroes. But not always.
Yuri Little Sheep
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