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Intermediate results of the election campaign in Belarus
Material posted: Publication date: 10-11-2010

The Belarusian Central election Commission announced the numbers collected by each candidate signatures in his support. This allows you to perform some intermediate results of the presidential campaign in Belarus.

First, you should pay attention to the fact that of the seventeen publicly showed interest in the presidential election of the citizens of Belarus up to the current stage could reach only eleven, i.e. slightly more than half. This suggests that the stage of collecting signatures is a serious procedure, which only strong teams, both in terms of resource support, and the organizational and technical aspects. Once again recorded and a threshold of grassroots action groups in terms of their numbers - at least 1,000 people.

It should also be noted that the figure of 100 thousand signatures in his support is nearly optimal for the current population of the Republic and in the current political system. It does not allow even a strong presidential candidates to relax, and it clearly cuts off from the continuation of the election campaign those who are not able to accumulate the necessary resource and institutional capacity. However, it is clear that the transition to democracy the bar to collect signatures will need to raise approximately doubled if not tripled. This will allow, on the one hand, to ensure random screening of candidates, with another - will force party and civic initiatives to do serious political work, not only in the election period and between elections, because only the presence of substantial forces on the ground will solve the problem by collecting signatures, campaigning in this case will not do. This is even more important to facilitate the flow of resources into the political sphere of the Republic.

Second, the data candidates according to the number of signatures collected clearly showed their electoral potential.

So, despite all the tricks of the state apparatus and the pressure from the vertical on the population,the number of collected signatures for the current head of the Republic for 40% less than in 2006. This is a serious defeat Alexander Lukashenko and his initiative group, because the pressure in these elections the electorate for the extraction of signatures that showed a news feed, was disproportionately higher than in the past, and signatures collected much less. If we extrapolate these data to the vote in the elections, even these data show that Alexander Lukashenko struggles to overcome the 50% threshold of votes. Accordingly, about any 70-80% of voter support cannot be considered.

It appears that of the eleven submitted signatures of candidates, the CEC will cull a maximum of 2-3 people, so as a result there are 8-9 people. But then a possible mutual withdrawal, for example, Dmitry USS, in favor of Nikolai Statkevich, Vitaly Rymashevsky, or in favor of Grigory Kostusev. However, all this will happen at the bottom "of the table", which is not so interesting, because the combined share of these candidates will be not more than 5-7% of the Belarusian electorate. Consequently, only coordinated the removal of these participants may allow the top three to increase its electorate by 2-3%.

Completely alone in this standings is the figure of Victor Tereshchenko. Range of possible strategies in case of registration quite diverse - from the second Haidukevich getting 3-5% of the vote to independent figures, which one will be able to increase the rating of the candidate from the first three by 3-5% because of their obvious Pro-Russian orientation. Much depends on how Victor Tereshchenko will be able to position yourself in the remaining until the end of counting signatures.

Also clearly designates three leaders of the opposition. Is Uladzimir Nyaklyaeu (more than 160 thousand signatures in its support), Andrei Sannikov (more than 150 thousand signatures) and Yaroslav Romanchuk (over 128 thousand signatures).

Obviously, the whole intrigue of the election campaign, in particular, Alexander Lukashenko, is that will this Troika of ambitious leaders - how they behave during the remaining registration time, and which scenario they will choose for themselves power. In principle, a scenario like that, and on the other hand, there are, and they simply miscalculate.



It is obvious that if the opposition will not go three candidates (plus Mikalai Statkevich, Gregory Kastusyou, Ales Mikhalevich), and one, his rating will rise at least threefold. Besides, he will be entitled to rely on the segment of Belarusian voters (about 30-40%), which is still undecided. Given the fact that the incumbent rating of about 30-35%, a single candidate may well reach the same number, that guarantees a second round of elections (of course, in an open and democratic procedure of counting of votes). What will be the defeat of the current Belarusian head of state. It is obvious that a second round for the power is highly undesirable, because even the question itself about it breaks down the entire vertical of power and the vote counting mechanism.

An important argument against the second round of voting speaks to the fact that the Belarusian government has tried and tested mechanics of its implementation. In addition, the first round is problematic for the opposition, then the second round becomes a must - merging candidates and their electorate against the incumbent, which also join the protest electorate. It is clear that the current Belarusian authorities can not afford such a present even in a nightmare. Therefore, the election "will be done" in a single round, and then the key question of election strategy for the government (that is what she will dance in building their tactics) is how much and who to register from the first three and who for them to hang in the appendage. The second question let us leave aside - it does not matter. Stay on the ground.

For the power question is a very understandable way - removing one of the three automatic means, the flow of votes to the other two. The withdrawal of two candidates will only increase this trend. In addition, there will be another very negative factor is that when removing the authorities of one or two of the top three opposition candidates, will dramatically increase the pressure of the EU on the issue of the illegitimacy of elections. Ie the government is beneficial to check in with all three candidates. At the same time, it is obvious that at such succession of events of opposition candidates remains an option, when they themselves will define who participates on and off. I.e. risks after registration, all three of them for the authorities.

However, only registration of all three will allow the government to implement the scenario that was implemented in 2006 when Alyaksandr Kazulin and Alyaksandr Milinkevich has taken away the opposition voters for two. Now there is the prospect of Stripping for three, with the result that they will receive between 6 and 12 percent each. In this regard, the main intrigue of the campaign is to agree the leading three candidates from the opposition or not. If you can do that even in the case of removal by the authorities, the rating remaining applicants will grow and be fed from the electoral bases of removed candidates. If not, then even in the case of all three, all three will go to the polls and will not achieve anything.


Given the precedent mentioned above, 2006, the likelihood that opposition candidates to negotiate will fail is quite high, at least this is the case of Vladimir Neklyaev and Andrei Sannikov. Positions Yaroslav Romanchuk is somewhat weaker, and it can go for withdrawal in favor of one of the two. But here in the case can intervene factor Anatoly Lebedko, who in these elections, while quite competently leads his party, and which, even more than Yaroslav Romanchuk, interested in the fact that the candidate of the party went to the end. It seems that without the intervention of sponsors, as in the case of Alyaksandr Milinkevich, the question the opposition alone can not solve.


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