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The Union state of Belarus and Russia as an object of information war
Material posted: -Publication date: 04-07-2012

Thanks to the efforts of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in the field of integration of post-Soviet space for the last two years have witnessed major successes. The customs Union concluded in 2010 and quickly passed to the stage of the common economic space by 2015 may grow into a full-fledged Eurasian economic Union. However, the growth impact of the integration of ideas and projects is growing and the opposition to them.

The article "the West is preparing to Belarus Libyan scenario" pointed to the increasing attempts of certain forces in the West to provoke the development of events in Belarus "to the Libyan scenario". Under the auspices of Western intelligence agencies created the "Council for national revival" in exile, which was headed by the former commander of the 5th separate brigade of the GRU special forces of the Armed forces of the Republic of Belarus Colonel Vladimir Borodach, who gained fame in the mid-1990s when he became one of the initiators of the Union of Belarusian officers.

After retirement in 1993, Vladimir Borodach has actively cooperated with the Belarusian opposition deputies of the Supreme Council of the XIII convocation, participated in protests against the authorities. In the early 2000s Vladimir Bearded man at the time led the shadows from which he came out in the fall of 2010 after receiving political asylum in Germany from its territory and launched an active struggle against the "regime of Lukashenka". According to those who knew him personally of the officers of the 5th separate brigade of the GRU special forces of the armed forces of Belarus, the Beard was a good professional, but poorly versed in politics and was quickly addicted to the dubious ideas. Apparently, in Germany they are in that plan worked, and it was done by competent people. The first results of this training are already visible.

In June, with the/g at the international conference in Vilnius, the Chairman of the organizing Committee of the "Council for national revival" Vladimir Bearded man called for "the adoption of the law on ethnocide (possible transition to the genocide) and crimes against humanity committed in Belarus during the reign of Lukashenko's regime for political, ideological and religious motives, and lustration of officials" (recall that an information attack on Gaddafi began very similar).

Settled in Germany, a group of Belarusian emigrants, calling themselves the "Council for national revival", does not exclude the possibility of using armed force to overthrow the government in Belarus. In an interview, Beard said that "there are several ways to overthrow the government. Without the support of allies from outside in the course of mass protests, the removal of the dictator from power may be exercised with the use of weapons". That is, testing of the "Libyan scenario" for the Union state of Belarus and Russia is already underway.

Now in the speeches of the representatives of the group of Bearded, there has been a verbal escalation of the conflict, which is scheduled to start. Simultaneously pursued two goals. First (the maximum objective), created the necessary background for the transformation of Belarus in the next "hot spot" after the West, according to the scheme the Scheduler will break the resistance of Russian diplomacy and "sort out" Syria, and Iran. At some point a source of concern for the "world community" will cause the situation with democracy in Belarus (about the way the West suddenly concerned with democracy in Syria). After bringing public opinion in the West to the boiling point (similar to the preparation of the public before the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia) can begin to be active ("hot") phase of the operation "regime change" in Belarus.

Second (the minimum objective), worked through the option of provoking the Belarusian authorities for disproportionate use of force against their political opponents. If it succeeds, the West will start to bombard Moscow's persistent calls to accept with the change in Belarus, the management team headed by Alexander Lukashenko. The calculation is based on the fact that in case of success of such diplomatic "bombing" "hot" phase of the operation may not be necessary.

If the Bearded man with the support of Western media are able to impose on the discussion of prospects of change of power in Belarus by force, this in itself will have a negative impact on the development of the political situation in the country – and including the fact that it can provoke Belarusian authorities for a military response, the scope of which, as shown by the events of December 2010, it is not always possible to control.

Aprobarea in the sphere of public discourse, the opportunity to force regime change in Belarus, presenting it as a way to solve "the Belarusian problem", the Western patrons of the Bearded man, in fact, pushing the Belarusian authorities hard counter, which, of course, restrictions on rights and freedoms in the Republic will not take long. Once that happens, the information war of the West against Belarus (and Russia) the direction of the attack will change: the problem of the "lack of democracy, violations of human rights and freedoms" in Belarus will bring to the fore (possibly at the highest international level) and try to put this "mark" all the processes of reintegration of former Soviet space.

Does this mean that the reaction of the Belarusian authorities in the activities of a group of Bearded man should wear not the character, which predicts, based on the events of December 2010, the strategists of Western intelligence agencies, and a completely different – asymmetric, as they say today? In our opinion, Yes. In the strategy of formation of the Belarusian government Belarusian civil society have, apparently, a lot to rethink. It should be borne in mind that, as the experience of the "Arab spring", democratization, which begins under pressure from the outside, always ends badly for those who she agrees. It seems that its role in ongoing processes needs to play Russia in order not to allow to involve Belarus in that game, where the moves of both sides already painted Western "partners" of Minsk. Otherwise the tension in the Republic (in parallel, although several other methods, this is done in respect of Kazakhstan – a participant in a new integration project for Eurasia) risks to spill beyond Belarus.

The Union state of Belarus and Russia and common economic space will try to blow up in the near future even with the other side. Along with the intensification of the "Council of national rebirth" certain forces began to throw in the Belarusian society the idea of a referendum on unification of Belarus and Poland. For obvious reasons this "Movement" was started, of course, in Belarus, and only as a response to the initiative of Belarusian intellectuals at the end of may/g-she responded positively to the Polish side. On the initiative of the Polish-Belarusian integration in our next article.


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