In the early to mid-2011 the U.S. are moving to the active phase of the energy war. Ie strike in S. Arabia (simultaneously with the liquidation of the Arabian crude oil, close to all Persian Strait and the Suez canal), provoke Turkish-Kurdish war (cut off southern oil and gas transit to the EU), sponsor new civil war in Algeria and Nigeria, are organizing a new Maidan in Ukraine and tube of Ukrainian-Russian "war."At the same time close commodity exports from the Americas outside of the continent.
The world crisis becomes the world chaos. The big East from Algeria to Afghanistan, from Uzbekistan to S. Arabia, and from Azerbaijan to Sudan burns. Pakistan unleashes war on India. In the EU's powerful economic and energy crisis and the turmoil in the B. East is not only the collapse of the labour market and the social system. provide, but social riots, Islamic terrorism, disorder and insurgency, separatism, etc. the Survival of Latin America depends entirely on US.
So what currency will be in demand in all these countries? Obviously not Euro dezintegriruetsja Europe. And yen flowing into a greater depression in Japan. Of course, a dollar. After its sharp devaluation it was absolutely stable and solid, and the US remains the only power not only enough aircraft carriers and nuclear missiles, so nobody attacked, but the economy collapses, and Vice versa - is increasing. "
Adventurer favorites, pp. 22 - 23.
"Because the world energy market is the most vulnerable problem. Need to close only three points to the global energy market ceased to exist, to China and India and Europe and Japan stood perfectly still. This is Ukraine, you know what is going on there is our oil-Gaztranzit. This Turkish Kurdistan, through which pass all the pipes. You know what's going on in Iraqi Kurdistan and how this case is subsidized by Americans. And this is the Suez Canal, the Red Sea before him, and before the sea the Gulf of Aden. And in the Gulf of Aden for some reason, it is unclear why there was a pirate problem. I wouldn't be surprised if in two months they will have heavy grenade launchers that can be anything and so on. In all these three points there are problems, if they update a little, then Europe will remain without oil and gas at all.
If it is to impose the economic crisis, social shock in Europe will be a nightmare. Europe as a phenomenon would cease to exist, it will be chaos, just the area of continuous street fighting. It will backfire and China and India. The more we see the problem of Indo-Pakistani. She was not there. Nowhere couldn't take on Benazir Bhutto killed, nowhere could not take the removal of Musharraf, nowhere could not take the terrorist attack in Mumbai that took place. There is a normal provocation for the development of the Indo-Pakistan conflict. Preparations are underway for the energy war. It will be a new type of war. "
Adventurer, favorites, page 13
(Approx.ed. -- The above lines were written 2-3 years ago.)
Look at the map "Veternik" revolutions and unrest.
January 19, 2011
As you can see, the fleets are at key points. By shutting the Strait of Gibraltar, the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Aden. Ie, for Key European transport corridors.
Nearing the end of the national crisis of the post-colonial States, which dominated in Northern Africa, in Arab countries since the beginning of the 20th century. 100 years of national post-colonial statehood, there were also their phases, crises, attempts at reunification, but in the end all this area has established a system of national predictorsi authoritarian regimes.
If in the case of Gaddafi or the modern Syria was about national-socialist regimes, in other countries, as in Tunisia, which overthrew Ben Ali, there was a story about a Pro-Western liberal-democratic, capitalist regimes, dictatorships.
We have the opinion that dictatorships are only nationalist or strictly religious, or socialist, but in fact almost the whole Maghreb, and, moreover, the whole North Africa are, with few exceptions just liberal-democratic Pro-Western dictatorship, which were focused essentially on the containment of the Islamic factor and, if we talk about Soviet times – the Soviet factor.They were supported by the West. These modes last 20 to 30 years, of course, came in a state of complete stagnation and the example of Tunisia, we see it best. Let me remind you that the Tunisian dictator Ben Ali was brought to power with the support of the West and the USA to avoid in the early 90-ies of the Islamist, leftist movements. And it did its job.
Now these regimes, which were created by the West and has long since turned into an authoritarian dictatorship, as in Egypt, for example, they gradually removed. There are several factors. On the one hand, it is the American factor, the factor of export of "color revolutions". The Americans in the last 10 years came to the conclusion that it is necessary to engage in the democratization of this region, i.e., the Western transition from authoritarian dictatorships to what the West considers "new types of democracy."
We are dealing with a "color revolution" aimed at dismantling its own servants, the puppets, just like Saddam Hussein, who performed the U.S. plans in the middle East. Similarly, the fate of these Arab regimes are very similar. When the Pro-American dictatorship after 10-15 years of existence, turning into something monstrous, the Americans themselves usually its overthrow.Secondly, the societies of these countries accumulated a large amount of protest energy, and Pro-Western dictatorship to endure they want.
By the way, I think in Russia, too, gradually begins this process. Because the Arab world is very closely linked to each other and the division of Nations very conventionally, these processes still passed through the natural channels.And the third thing I want to say. You should pay attention to the picture, which shows West on their TVs. These situations in West Africa shows how a purely democratic. But really the tremendous power of these movements is Islamic fundamentalism, which likewise was under pressure from Pro-Western dictatorships and their democratic movement.
That is, democracy and fundamentalism go hand in hand in the overthrow of the authoritarian Pro-Western dictators.Interestingly, the West puts only one of these components. The West hopes that in the place of, say, dictatorial liberal democracy will come more "popular" democracy, more modern, less corrupt, less clannish. But it is not the fact. The most important component of all movements is Islamic fundamentalism. The West, convinced your media, waits for democratic change in the Arab world, connected with it the General "mainstream" expectation, and in fact we now face a very interesting thing.
I think that the forces of Islamic fundamentalism in Islamic countries is much stronger than the Western structure of democratic civil society. After turn the nut and release the internal stress free, we will witness the competition of two forces – hard Islamic democracy and Pro-Western. What country that wins – it's hard to say yet.
But Tunisia appears to us a purely democratic country, we saw only representatives of civil society, as an exhibition Gelman "Russia 2" – "Novodvorska", "Nimzovich" and so on. But there is also the other half that didn't show – clean-shaven, bearded, very well armed. Now here we get to meet her, now would be figuring out who will use the results of "color revolutions". It seems to me that the U.S. underestimated the fundamentalist factor, and they are very much at risk.
Date rev.com (Alexey Kornilov)
As you want, but revolutions in North Africa – is all wrong.
Take, for example, Tunisia. Country, maybe not the richest, but on the scale of the "third world" is quite successful – with a GDP per capita above the Chinese. The formal pretext for mass demonstrations in Tunisia served as occurred in December, "sharp" jump in food prices. I must say that we in Russia products rise in price at exactly the same pace since September, but nobody is rebelling. But not the essence – we're just people... such long-suffering. Another interesting thing: in 2006-7, when the world for the first time loudly declared itself agflation, food prices in Tunisia were off even more sharply. But no special riot somehow never happened.
Even more surreal Jasmine revolution may seem, if we remember that it was coordinated over the Internet and all sorts of trendy gadgets. Even in more affluent countries of the Arab world still even a little bit, but luxuries. Well, it turns out that rising food prices are particularly strongly resented by those whom it is least touched...
In Egypt still amusing and confusing. Let's start with the fact that the magnitude of the speeches there, it seems, greatly exaggerated. So, last Friday – on the "Day of wrath" - "date-revolutionaries" threatened to take to the streets of Cairo as much as 80 thousand people! The figure itself is not too impressive – except that for some Belarus – especially when you consider that the population of the Egyptian capital reaches almost 20 million. But real managed to collect less than 20 to 50 thousand. Meanwhile, in Egypt alone of the internal forces (Central Security Forces) almost 350 thousand. And moreover there is the regular police with mass organized reserve (like the Soviet national teams).
The origins of a revolutionary situation in Egypt is not as obvious as many think. Yeah, not the richest country. Yes, the tourist season is almost ripped off – not without the help of the media – elusive, coached by the German tourists sharks. Yes, the December rise in world prices for agricultural products hit including Egypt. However, prior to the Date of the revolution in the country has not stopped the railway and the military didn't block the route from Cairo to Alexandria, the shortages of food were not. And in any case, the riots were supposed to start in the South, the most deprived areas of the country. A revolution broke out in the main "locomotives of growth" is a relatively prosperous Cairo and Alexandria. And curiously, for reasons of food security not related: Egyptian Coptic Christians (by the way, is especially well represented among the local middle class and economic elite) is outraged that as much as a week (!) after the bomb in one of the churches of Alexandria, the authorities have still not caught those responsible. And during the break between the performances start and the end of January in electronic media suddenly flashed information that in Egypt, there were cases of swine flu (fatal). In short, any excuse to bring people to the streets would still be.
Deserves a separate discussion the main "trick" of both revolutions – their twitterno-numeric character. It would seem, what for to bring people to the demonstrations via the Internet in countries that are traditional, non-electronic social network: i.e., large Patriarchal families, neighboring communities and even tribes with clans. And not only somewhere in the Outback, but in the big cities: in Cairo, a separate five - or nine-as a rule, entirely inhabits the one family clan. And why then the fuss is laid on the Internet, which, as it turned out, you can disable the twist of a switch?
It is actually simple. The main advantage of "underground network" - a high degree of anonymity. Modern cyber-dissident torture is not torture, he still names his comrades will not give. Just because he doesn't know them. So "twitterno" revolution can operate from anywhere – even from a neighboring house, even from the other hemisphere. And Patriarchal communities under "nickname" on the Internet especially not will you take charge – they are based entirely on personal communication and trust, and outsiders are a priori with suspicion. So the Egyptian "self-defence groups", spontaneously formed on the peak of the disorder on family and neighborhood to the principle, at once emphatically distanced itself from the demonstrators, preferring to cooperate with the military.
Now since we are talking about "aliens", I can not mention another oddity. During both of the North African revolutions up to a quarter of "guiding" network of publications (where to meet, what to have etc.) were English-speaking. Despite the fact that in Egypt the real anglophones not that massive demonstration, the picket does not reach, and Tunisia – and at a Francophone country...
I ask, to whom, if not by the Egyptians, the Tunisians, took all that revolutionary romanticism and why? The exact address and name names, of course, not taken. But that's what's interesting. It has been repeatedly mentioned here agflation – i.e. inflation, provoked by the global food shortages – accompanied by excessive demand not only for food but also for gold. The largest reserves of this precious metal – as is well known in the United States. Not so, of course, as they were in 1950-ies (more than 20 thousand tons), but still solid. With the beginning of the crisis the Americans, trying to somehow patch up his utterly poisoned by toxic assets, the budget, these stocks began to slowly sell off. By October 2010 they had fallen to a record-small 7700 tons. However, by the end of the year somehow has again increased by almost 1,000 tons. So, in November–December, the Americans frantically buying gold. So, I knew that in the very near future agflation will set new records?
I would argue that the next leap in food prices was quite predictable: people on the Ground more, eat with a growing appetite and the fertility of the soil then falls. However, the demand for agricultural products began to grow in the summer.
...then I worried Tunis. And when metastases of the Tunisian Jasmine revolution began to respond in other Arab countries, the rulers of a number of "developing" countries, not to share the fate of Ben Ali, frantically to purchase food. Thereby inflating world prices beyond my wildest expectations.
All of the above, of course, is not proof that the unrest in North Africa guided on Twitter and Facebook by the Americans. But the fact remains – the Tunisian and the Egyptian revolution benefited primarily American agriculture, providing its products is essentially unlimited demand for the near future. I recall that in the 1930s, the rural economy has already helped the U.S. overcome the Great Depression. But in the current environment, where gold and currency reserves now come to the food basket, it is hardly the last hope really – but not statistically – to improve the world's largest economy. For such cases no dates no mind!
The current geopolitical situation on the planet resembles a novice to boil the soup.
At the present time we have not only economic crisis, but, in the words of historian Fursov, "the crisis of Russian doll":
1. The crisis of the development paradigm of the Western world, based on capitalism, because of the exhaustion of new markets and "colonies".
2. The financial crisis-economic, expressed by the words - no one does not want to work, they all want to consume and entertain. (statistics on Germany - 40% of the male population want to be "Housewives")
3. The crisis of scientific-technical development: gasoline engine, for example for over 100 years. Science is at a standstill, physics has evolved from applied science to theoretical, i.e. transformed into pure mathematics and abstractions. As a result: no new and breakthrough technologies, inventions to be bought up at the level of patents by corporations.
4. The food crisis, again associated with corporations, manipulating the food, GMO's, etc. things.
5. The crisis of the project of globalization, as a result of the redistribution of spheres of influence, starting with the global players of planetary influence (Russia, USA, China) to other smaller players on different levels.
A small digression: the development of so-called "social networks" and global means of communication (smartphones, telephony, Internet controlled, mass-media with uniform standards) enables a controlling influence over various social groups of people, regardless of education level, religion, income level and social status of the person at all. (The previously mentioned message about what Twitter and Facebook is a tool for coordination "revolutions" affecting the moment in North Africa and the middle East.)
There is an Association of dual-use technologies: in times of peace social networking tool that unites people of different interests, etc., and in the "military" is a way of coordinating for possible illegal (or in the "interests of national security").
The list of crises can be supplemented, if to take into account all aspects of political, financial and socio-cultural status of the society. The main conclusion is that all the crises that come together at a given point of time give a strong, so-called synergistic effect, reinforcing each other.
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