Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / Great Arab Revolution / Articles
What is happening in the middle East and the Arab world?
Material posted: Publication date: 24-02-2011

States North Africa and the Middle East continue to be shaken by social explosions. Were a successful revolution in Tunisia and Egypt. Commander in Algeria, Sudan, Yemen, Bahrain, Jordan, Libya. Tehran parried the first revolutionary wave, but will not come second?

Every revolutionary explosion, a growing number of victims during the Jasmine revolution in Tunisia (December 24, 2010 – January 14, 2011) 219 killed, 510 wounded (figures from the United Nations on 1 February 2011); Twitterno during the revolution in Egypt (25 January-11 February 2011), according to the UN — killed nearly 300 people and injured about 5 thousand people. It's probably not the complete figures, as revolutionary agitation can be continued for the theory of Bronstein-Trotsky about the continuity of the revolutionary process. While the authority will not capture the most organized and brutal force – the Islamists.

Now under a major blow to Libya, where the country's leader, the charismatic personality, the so-called "real Colonel" - M. Qaddafi. The unrest in Libya began on 15 February and things are moving with frightening sharpness: the rebels capture weapons caches, in response to the military inflicted on him a blow with the BBC (and two military planes flew to Malta, refusing to obey orders), some leaders of the Libyan foreign Minister has resigned as head of the interior Ministry is urging Gadhafi to stop the violence. The Libyan leader and his son said that the actions of the rebels will lead to civil war and the power they will not give up, because this would lead to the collapse of the country. Is the evacuation of citizens of other States. The account of victims in the hundreds, the rebels already controlled part of the country, on their side moved part of the police and the military. Libya is one of the main suppliers of the EU with oil, began to increase in prices of petroleum products.

Western countries generally supported the rebels, so President Sarkozy of France demanded to impose sanctions for Libya, because Gaddafi had a "horrible massacre".

Israel has occupied a special position, Europe and the US far, it is the Islamization and civil war within the Arab world not threatening much, the oil they will still sell it – got to eat. Tel Aviv is facing a new war against him, the passion, the Arabs will have to find a way out, and then sideways at the hated Jewish state. Israel staged an authoritarian Pro-Western regimes of Egypt and Libya.

Features of the Arab world

- The need for strong leadership, leader, otherwise confusion, enmity, strife.

- Almost complete absence of producing skills of the population: the region is living by the sale of natural resources, natural beauties, smuggling (for example: the market of weapons and drugs in Yemen), sales people (girls, girls from Africa to the brothels of Europe), Commerce.

- Complete domination of Islam and traditional features, with splashes of Western culture (for example: in the countries of the Maghreb strongly the French influence).

- The laziness and conservatism of thinking.


- Islamic civilizational project that would unite a vast region with 1.5 billion people, with immense natural resources and a strategically important position (the Suez canal, the southern Mediterranean, the Persian Gulf, access to two oceans, or three – with the inclusion of Muslim Indonesia) has not been created. The forgotten legacy of Muhammad for the thickness of the showdown a local scale. And so the Islamic world would be one of the centers of power on the planet.

- There is not even a purely Arab civilizational project. The Arab leaders are mired in local quarrels and has not developed the project, which would be able to combine the traditions and characteristics of all Arab countries.

- The Arab world of today is a raw materials appendage of the West, supplier of resources and a cheap labor force – the lowest quality.

- When was the collapsed of the USSR, the Arab world has lost the only working model of Arab socialism, the new model he couldn't create.

- Arab political elite, almost entirely hedonistic type, so in 2005 they invested in its development 8 billion, and foreign investment in recent years was $ 1.5 trillion (!) dollars.

Socio-economic and political problems

- The unemployed account for approximately 15-16% of the population, with polumetrovymi (for example: seasonal workers, employee for harvest, or during the holiday season) twice.

- Low intellectual level, especially women and children, the number not attending school (i.e., even to write, can't read) to 40%, in women as well. Low scientific capacity – to 1 million in 3 times fewer scientists than in the rest of the world.

- Huge gap between the countries with sources of income (resources, tourism, agriculture, etc.) and no, Somalia, Yemen is the winning zone "hell" on Earth, better than in Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, high standard of living in the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, etc.

- Huge social stratification, the difference between the middle class and the poor 20 times.

- Clan system of power, the caste, the privacy and social mobility are closed.

Why blew up the Arab world?

Western clans split, part for the preservation of the USA, other people believe that China is a better operational base than the States and working on "lowering" of the United States. Unrest in the Arab world, partially favorable "patriots", it gives them time to solve internal problems, preformat States into a totalitarian, fascist state, uniting all of North America – Mexico, USA and Canada. Plus, you can even more to divide and destroy the Islamic, the Arab world, with a view to its better handling. Plus it's a blow to the "European clans" - hundreds of thousands of migrants, refugees, the rise in oil prices, this will strain the economy of Germany and France, which is so hard to drag the EU itself. In the end the question of the collapse of the Eurozone will become more acute, the U.S. "lower" partner-competitor. But on the other hand, excitement can lead to the creation of a powerful pan-Arab Islamist organization with local "Stalin" at the head, which will start "blood and iron" to unite the Arabs is a threat, but this scenario is unlikely.

Stationed in China, the Rothschilds, also favorable revolutionary wave in the Arab world. Guaranteed, eventually you come to power, the most serious guys ready to crush the people, not listening to the cries for mercy, i.e. the Islamists. The US influence will weaken, their hate, for the Islamists the U.S. – a kind of "Mordor", and China will occupy the vacuum, getting new resources for the race of development. Chinese companies are already hosted in Africa, now their influence will grow. Against China the Arabs nothing, China cities not bombed. Interesting fact, the attempt of the "Internet revolution" in China was instantly suppressed.


Russia this situation is potentially profitablebecause it gives us the time to modernize the economy and the rearmament of the army, on the eve of world war II. Oil prices are high, it will give additional resources. If power was Your civilization – Russian Project of globalization in Russian, we could benefit greatly. Supporting the Iranian authorities in the face of controlled chaos, would become again the friends of Iran. Could return its position in a number of countries of the Arab world, offered them assistance in the creation of a Unified Arab civilization.

Everything depends on the authorities whether it is beneficial to take advantage of the situation, or oversleep "Internet revolution", leaving the Russian civilization in the furnace of the World revolution.

Libya and Iran wish to withstand the shock of the world "p-revolutionaries", otherwise the wave will go further and the blood will be much greater.


Alexander Samsonov


Tags: Iran , war , geopolitics , Libya , Africa

RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics