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Islam on the March
Material posted: Publication date: 11-12-2011

The first phase of parliamentary elections in Egypt brought victory to "Muslim Brothers". And this result is not surprising: in all the States emerging in this year's revolution, free elections end same — the people voted for the Islamists. "PP" has made a rating of the Islamization of the countries of the victorious Arab democracy.

Whoever wants to understand the system of parliamentary elections in Egypt, have patience. Because controlling the country's military has likened post-revolutionary elections the revolution, which, as you know, has a beginning, but no end. The campaign will take place in several stages and will last until next spring. The military has ensured that the province did not vote at the same time, not all political forces were allowed to vote, some have survived and others have been cancelled quotas — for example, a certain number of MPs appointed by the military.

The meaning of this complex procedure is clear — to minimize the risk to Wake up in a country where yesterday's rogue Islamists alone form the Parliament and the government. However, while this is the most obvious of all possible scenarios, because at the first stage of parliamentary elections, "the Muslim brotherhood" has gained about 30% of the vote. And the experience of other countries speaks in favor of this particular scenario.


1. Tunisia

The achievement of the Islamists: 41% of the seats in Parliament and the post of Prime Minister.

Tunisia was a pioneer of the "Arab spring". The protests began here earlier than in other countries, the regime fell quickly, and the elections of the Parliament, formed a new government, too, was the first in the region. It is after they became apparent to analysts that a wave of Arab protests is the better able to ride the Islamists.

The victory of the party "Revival" was more than convincing. She received almost five times more votes than the next most popular party, and in Parliament has more than three parties together.

However, for decades waiting for the opportunity to get into the legal political field, Tunisian Islamists appeared in the form of negotiability modern political force rather than power hungry zealots-radicals. They left behind only the Premiership, and the posts of the President and the speaker of the Parliament gave two center-left parties that formed a coalition.

This position greatly increases their chances to hold a key political office in the turbulent post-revolution environment. Those same military there is no reason to take away the power of the Islamists, as happened in Turkey or Algeria.



The achievement of the Islamists: 27.1 per cent of the seats in Parliament and the post of Prime Minister.

On the eve of the unrest in Morocco was considered as the most stable country of the Maghreb. Unlike Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Algeria — States, where the government has basically usurped formally elected presidents, in Morocco a constitutional monarchy, power is distributed more evenly, the difference between the democratic façade and the reality is less stark, and the king and dynasty enjoyed considerable support of the people.

The protests here were less massive — tens, not hundreds of thousands or millions of people. Victims were less one man, not hundreds or thousands. Slogans were less radical: to overthrow the king, no one was going. And it was easier for the authorities to make concessions, which gave a greater sedative effect at a smaller scale.

July 1, the country held a constitutional referendum, the results of which the Parliament and the government received additional powers has expanded the rights of women, softened the language policy. And November 25 parliamentary elections were held, which brought a landslide victory of the Islamist Party of justice and development. The leader of the AKP Abdelillah Benkirane as head of the largest faction, was nominated for Prime Minister and said that "to work together, we need a coalition."



The achievement of the Islamists: the control of several provinces in the country.

On 23 November, President Saleh signed an agreement on the transfer of power in the country (it will happen in February 2012). Over the past nine months he has made very many enemies and rivals in the ruling elite and separatists seeking to restore the independence of South Yemen, and Shia militants in the North, and the terrorists of al-Qaeda in the South and West of the country.

While secular opposition in Yemen is very weak — her from the beginning, appearing just as a trigger of civil conflict. And most successfully resist the government of a religious Association: the Shiites are in control of three provinces in the North of the country, Salafi — Abyan province in the South. The outcome of such a complex confrontation of experts do not presume to predict, but the weakening of secular authority and institutions in Yemen, while the growing influence of tribal leaders and the international Islamist terrorists are already obvious to all — to understand it, not necessary to wait for elections.



The achievement of the Islamists: several posts in the new government.

Before parliamentary elections in Libya is still far. But the composition of the transitional government, approved on 22 November, has much to say about the balance of power. However, not in society and in the armed camp of the winners who are in the struggle with the former regime's most powerful outside help. How critical was this help, can be judged by one who has occupied key posts in the new government (see the help).

Most of all there were former political refugees who lived and worked primarily in the United States. A number of second tier posts went to the officials working in the government under Gaddafi. In obvious defeat was the few civil human rights activists and much more influential Islamists. For example, the head of the defense Ministry predicted a famous fighter and the head of the military Council of Tripoli Abdelhakim of Belhadj. But he didn't get it.

Eventually the Islamists got in several minor government posts, leading, for example, the Ministry of martyrs and families of the missing.

However, the full structure of the new government will be clear only after elections. Here, the Islamists have a better chance. To expect them to moderation, as in Tunisia, is not necessary. Unlike Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, the Islamists under the former Libyan regime there was no tradition of political organization that could help them to evolve towards more moderate positions. Here is their main form of organization is a clandestine terrorist cell with international radical movements like al-Qaida.



The achievement of the Islamists: not yet available.

Mass disturbances in Syria, in fact, developed into a civil war, still couldn't pin it on the army backed the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The protests began in Damascus and represented the rallies and marches of the capital University of democratically minded youth, who demanded political freedoms. Then followed the armed uprising in the cities of Deraa, HOMS and Hama, directed against the regime and the authorities organized the military and the Islamists.

Soon in Istanbul was formed the Syrian national Council, which declared itself an alternative government. It includes mainly the opposition-emigrants. Finally on the side of the rebels began to move the army. Everyone dissatisfied with their own goals and score with power.

So far, however, it is difficult to predict who would be nominated to the fore in the case of the departure of Assad. Most likely, this is not the military: most of them will remain with the President until the end. This is unlikely to be the instigators of the disorders of the capital's students the experience of Tunisia and Egypt.

Remain the opposition, immigrants and Islamists. If the attack on Assad will follow the Libyan scenario — with international intervention, chances are good the first. If the regime will fall of itself, and on the first cast will be all the same Islamists who have already tried to seize power in 1982.


Pavel Burmistrov


Tags: Syria , Libya , Africa

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