The events of recent weeks, as well as the content of an information booklet for the Egyptian rebels says the expert, the Kyrgyz newspaper "Delo no." - political analyst and Islamic studies Kadyr MALIKOV, a long time lived and studied in the middle East.
- Let's start with the statement: indeed, perhaps it is the key to understanding the events in the Arab world. The first one is not fake?
Don't look it. Very interesting document! For example, I noted that this manual is written not in dialect, widespread in Egypt, and classical, literary Arabic understood in all countries of the Arab world. And that says a lot. And the mention that some of these methods were already tested in Tunisia. We think we got evidence that these revolutionary events - global project. Intended for the most different countries of the Arab world.
- Don't you think that is a typical scenario, a typical technology of "color revolutions"? But this revolution is a tool of the West, primarily the United States. So, maybe, for a wave of revolutions in Arab countries (as it is in Europe and in the CIS countries) are the United States?
Actually, the "color revolutions" - not an invention of the West. Most, perhaps, the first such revolution was the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1978-79. What is the feature of "color revolutions"? First, in their mass. Second, their peaceful nature - authoritarian regime was toppled without armed revolution and the seizure of power. By a long and massive civil disobedience to force the regime to leave. This is what happened in Iran, when after the confrontation, strikes across the country that lasted almost a year, the Shah was forced to leave the country. So the US can say, has embraced Iranian methods. And tried to apply them not only in Europe but also in Iran during the 2009 presidential election. But the "color revolution" failed.
But now, it seems that American methods he returned to the States like a boomerang - they were adopted by the Arabs. Or the force that is behind these revolutions is. But this, I think, not America. Today she - along with Israel - is in a state of confusion and shock. Because they are right before our eyes lose their closest allies in the Arab world.
- Why in some countries of the Arab world erupt riots and revolution, while others still silence? In this kind of logic?
- . In those countries where unrest broke out, the high level of corruption and poverty. Grew youth, received a good secular education, but sitting without work. Note: in such countries of the Persian Gulf like United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, silence. Because the local population there is quite enough life. The state generously shares with him the high revenues from oil and tourism, takes care of the youth, sends her to study abroad. Social problems can only be migrants (performing all the dirty work), but to make the revolution, they, you know, will not.
In all the Arab countries resemble each other authoritarian regimes. At the head of them, either monarchs or presidents, ruling not for the first time, 20-30 years old, and annoying people. But, for example, the king in Jordan is respected. And he pursues a flexible policy - in the Parliament of this country represents all political forces existing in the country from the "Muslim brotherhood" to nationalists. While the primary responsibility of the Cabinet of Ministers. And the king has wisely played the lead - as soon as the first demonstration, he immediately dissolved the government, reduced prices, promised reform.
The second important factor in the Arab revolutions - external policy regimes. In this regard, I, for example, is not yet clear: why these revolutions have opened Tunisia? Perhaps he has become something of a testing ground for rehearsal of revolution in an Arab country?
It's another thing Egypt. This is one of the regional leaders who have enormous weight - political, economic, and military. And a huge impact on the internal politics of many African countries, especially with neighbouring Sudan. While the Cairo regime for more than a dozen years conducting Pro-American and Pro-Israeli foreign policy. And for this reason he has lost credibility as its people and the peoples of other Arab countries.
The fact that the entire Arab world (I'm not talking about modes) sympathizes with the Palestinian people. In 2006, when Israel waged another war against Lebanon, the resistance had only a small Hezbollah, supported by Iran. And all Arab regimes, including Egypt, was silent. Egypt became the only Arab country that participated in the inhuman blockade of the Gaza Strip, launched by Israel in 2009. And in the Arab world remember it well.
Another regional leader, Saudi Arabia. It also obviously loses its credibility and its leadership. And not only in Arabic but also in the entire Islamic world. The reason is the same - the regime of the Saudi Royal family holds, in addition to oil, on American bayonets. It is the only country in the Arab world, where there is U.S. military base. Saudi Arabia is the main promoter of American interests in the middle East. So do not be surprised if the wave of revolutions, has come to her.
- Curious slips information. The king of Saudi Arabia strongly condemned the unrest in Egypt, saying they "orchestrated from outside". But one of the Iranian ayatollahs expressed support to all those riots, calling them "the seismic impact of the Islamic revolution" by Arab "puppets of the West." So, maybe for this wave of revolutions is Iran? Pioneer, as you said, the "color revolutions"...
- Many politicians around the world say about participating in these events "the third force", but Iran still right no one pointed out. So there is no direct evidence. Although what is happening now in the middle East, Iran is very profitable. For anybody not a secret that over him for a long time the dark clouds, the US especially do not hide that in the next 2-3 years can inflict on Iran strike. Now - with the change of regimes in Arab countries - States are losing bases, strategic military approaches to Iran. Geopolitical map of the region changed drastically.
I should add that Iran is now becoming the moral leader of the middle East. On it the last 6 years with ever-increasing sympathy looks young in the Arab countries - even despite the fact that Arabs are Sunni and Iranians are Shia. The reasons are many - and the doctrine of exporting the Islamic revolution, still operating in Iran, and genuine political democracy that exists in this country, and the Iranian support for the Palestinians. But the governments of many Arab countries today appeared in moral isolation.
But again, what kind of "third force" is behind these events - one of the biggest mysteries. The Americans are now trying to seize the initiative, to bring the situation under control. But in the process will now try to cut in many external players. By the way, Russia now has the opportunity to return to the middle East.
- Tell me, the revolution first occurred in this region?
- The fact of the matter is that never! There were attempted coups and successful coups, which resulted in to power came military dictatorships. In Egypt, there were protests in 50-e and 60-e and 70-e years of the last century, but they did not become mass. Revolutionary has never been characteristic of the Arabs. All 20th century Arab world was sleeping. To power, whatever it was, there felt fearful reverence - well, let's say, like today in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
- Why in 21 century the Arabs suddenly woke up? Some Kyrgyz politicians are proud to say: this, they say, Kyrgyzstan they have set an example...
- Nonsense, we have nothing to do with it. Just us, and they have a similar situation. Authoritarianism, corruption, unemployment, the dominance of old elites, which is long overdue to leave the scene... in a Word, the tops are not able to manage in a new way, and the lower classes do not want the old way to live.
- By the way, if we are to make comparisons... why do you think the revolutionary scenario is the Arabs more protracted than in Kyrgyzstan? In Egypt, President Mubarak was toppled for the third week. And in Bishkek in 2005, in 2010 - coped for a couple of days. What feature of the Kyrgyz people - don't have the patience?
Both Kyrgyz revolution by and large were not "colored," since were not so massive as in Egypt, Tunisia or even Iran... So the scenario of "someone who'll sit out" here would not pass. And consider the difference in mentality sedentary peoples and nomads (laughs). Troops of Genghis Khan, for example, neither the cities long siege was not satisfied and preferred to take them on impulse.
As for the wave of revolutions in the middle East... Yes, it is completely unexpected. The rebellious mood spread over the vast territory, as the virus is already covered and non-Arab countries - Turkey, for example. The revolutionaries are no obvious leaders, these performances seem to be spontaneous (although everyone knows it's not possible). Among the faithful already talking: and if the predicted time of great turmoil, great chaos, the coming of the Antichrist and the Mahdi? But if we reject the theology and reason is purely political, then in 2011, I think, the whole world was in a pre-revolutionary situation.
Is it good or bad?
- It's hard to say, time will tell. One thing I can say: we will be witnesses of (and participants in) the great historical turning point, the events will develop rapidly, we hardly will have time to watch them. And a key role in the development of events will belong to the Internet - it already dominates in the world. The pros in this situation, of course, there are - over authoritarian regimes around the world (and our region in particular) there is a bigger threat, they have to draw conclusions. The first bell has already rung...
- Can these revolutions to come to power radical Islamists?
- Most interesting is that none of the revolutions was not held under religious slogans. Everywhere people are demanding: "Down with tyranny, down with corruption". Islamic organizations - both radical and moderate everywhere have taken a wait (only in Tunisia is one of the banned organizations asked her to legalize). Another thing is that revolution is happening in the minds of believers, is reinterpreting Islam. After all, the very appearance of Islam was a revolution of his time - in the Arabian Peninsula surrounded by tyrannical regimes, emerged democratic state, where rulers were elected by the people.
To unrest in the middle East led to the disappointment the Western model of democracy. So the United States in this sense can be called the Creator of these revolutions. Peoples are tired of their double standards, double morals: loud talking about democracy and supporting authoritarian regimes, favorable States. With the same USA, by the way, faced in Kyrgyzstan, pereuserdstvovat in flirting with baniewski regime.
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