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Material posted: -Publication date: 31-10-2011

Watching how the U.S., NATO, and behind them the world behind the scenes deal with one of the most prosperous African country of Libya, as they consistently kill the first relatives of its leader, Gaddafi, and then his own, under this isohaline their words about democracy, human rights and resolution No. 1973 of the Security Council of the UN manekeni, ask a natural question: which country will be the next victim of these international bandits?

"That's what can happen if someone starts to think"
V. S. Chernomyrdin

To answer you need first of all to understand the true purpose and the motives of the organizers of this mayhem. It is not difficult to do, especially because the fate of Iraq provides a basis for some generalizations and conclusions.

1. Oil risk factor

Most often the main cause of aggression against Libya is the gaining control over Libyan oil. There is a good reason.

The deposits readily available (more light) oil in the world are depleted (Fig.1), and the average cost of their development from 2005 to 2008 increased almost in 2 times (Fig. 2).

 

Fig.1. The volume of oil production
Source: "Vedomosti" № 92(2114) dated 22 may 2008, p. A1

Fig. 2. Investment growth in oil production

This significant increase in capital costs is associated not only with the weakening of the dollar, but with the growth of wages (geologists, engineers, and other experts), the increase in the cost of materials (including metals) and specialized equipment. A certain contribution to the increase in the cost of extraction and processing of oil also makes the increase in the share of heavy and hard-to-reach oil in the total production. The increase of costs for the development of new deposits is a fundamental factor of increase in oil prices.

Therefore, the explored reserves of light oil in the world since 2005 reduced (Fig. 3), which is increasing tension between a group of countries producers and consumers of oil.

 

Fig.3. Proven oil reserves in the world

In Russia the situation is similar – the growth rate of oil production for 10 years reduced (Fig. 4), and Russian oil companies, despite the cheery statements that are already interested in the oil of Siberia, Iraq and Venezuela.

 

Fig. 4. Annual oil production in Russia

The total reserves of light oil in Russia are estimated as 6.6-8 billion tons, the annual domestic consumption is approximately 250 million tonnes.

To avoid confusion, we emphasize again that here and below we're not talking about all oil, but only about readily available oil. In the world there are reserves on the Arctic shelf, bituminoznye Sands, etc., but the cost of production will be higher than at present. The development of such fields can last for many years without significant positive effect. For example, the Ministry of environment was formed in late October 2011, the state Program of exploration of Russia's continental shelf and development of its mineral resources up to 2030 envisages the extraction of additional 40-80 million tons of oil per year, which is only 8-16% of the current production level1.

Libya has Africa's largest proven reserves of oil (to 46.4 billion barrels, about 6.4 billion tons)2.

Before the outbreak of hostilities in February 2011, she was ranked 12th in the world in terms of exports of oil, supplying more than 1.5 million barrels per day. Almost 30% of Libyan oil imported Italy, 14% France, 13% to China. Gas exports to Europe amounted to about 10 billion m3. Leading positions in the oil and gas sector took the company from France (Total), Italy (ENI), Britain (BP), Germany (RWE), the USA (ExxonMobil), are precisely from those countries who opposed Muammar Gaddafi.

Near the time of easy oil is over. According to expert estimates, at current levels of consumption for the world as a whole (about 4 billion tonnes/year) this could happen by 2035, given the current pace of growth – by 2025.

But the unpleasant fact that easy oil is over not at the same time for all countries. In Fig. 5 presents the expected date of the exhaustion of light oil to the major producing countries when the oil in them will be extracted rate 2010 adjusted for a 1.5% annual growth (the growth rate of population). Of course, in reality, as the depletion of light oil, the rate of extraction in the countries where it still remains, will increase, and the timing of the completion of oil – to decline.

But nevertheless, the diagram in Fig. 5 allows us to understand many important features of the oil "market" and the real causes of the aggravation of the military-political situation in the regions, as well as to predict some trends.

The greatest danger of military aggression from countries, while not fully controlled by USA and having a maximum time of exhaustion of oil reserves. From this point of view become clear the problems of Iraq and Libya, as well as future issues of Iran, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Nigeria and Russia. Violations of democracy in these countries can not be taken into account: the main problem of these countries – the possession of large oil reserves. More precisely – a great time of exhaustion of oil reserves.

By 2035 the world's easy oil is over. And it looks like she has already ended in the USA and in the EU. This explains their aggression on Iraq, Libya and Iran.

 

Fig.5. The timing of the completion of light oil in the countries and in the world
(official data on proven reserves)

Large variation in these terms will inevitably cause negative excesses in countries relationships with each other, will provoke military conflict, the probability of which sharply aggravated in the current and next decades.

But there is strong suspicion that the official oil reserves are greatly inflated. For example, according to the head of the Center for the analysis of the problem of exhaustion of petroleum geologist Dr. Colin Campbell, 46% of the resources pledged available to the OPEC countries, are exaggerated, if not false. And government, in his opinion, ill informed and ill prepared for this3.

Many experts believe that the published official figures to be divided in half in that case, if applied formal methods for evaluation and formal methodology. This reduces the inventory level, for example, in Russia by 4 billion tons, i.e. to one year of world oil consumption. The report, compiled by the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, shows that 60% of all discovered oil reserves in Western Siberia is on the verge of exhaustion. In Russia under the current tax regime nearly 30% of the developed reserves unprofitable3.

If you find that the real proven reserves of light oil in 2 times below the official, the terms of the end of such oil in different countries would correspond to data in Fig.6.

In other words, if we consider these amendments in predicting the timing of the end of the explored reserves of light oil, it appears that the world's energy crisis could begin in the next decade.

 

Fig. 6. The timing of the completion of light oil in the countries and in the world
(data on proven reserves in the middle East and Central Asia is reduced in 2 times in comparison with official)

And according to Oxford University's, current world oil reserves are not revalued at 2 and 3 times4. Then problems arise in this decade.

As stated by the publication of the Independent chief economist of the International energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, the majority of the fields have already passed peak production5. Its decline due to the depletion of reserves has been faster than previously assumed: now the IEA estimates that the decline in production from the producing areas in 6,7%, in 2007 this indicator was predicted at level of 3,7%. Such conclusions were made by experts of the IEA on the basis of comprehensive research of a condition more than 800 oil fields contains 75% of the world reserves.

According to them, the maximum rate of global oil production will be reached in the next 10 years, or a decade earlier than expected by many governments. However, even this will not help to cover the growing deficit. According to experts IEA, the expected consumption growth to 2030 the world will need to find equivalents to "6 Saudi Arabias""6.

In 7 it is reported that the staff of the Center of the transformation of the Bundeswehr recently conducted an internal study, not intended originally for the General public. According to obtained data, the peak of oil production worldwide may be reached as early as this year. The consequences of this event for global economy and geopolitics would be severe.

It is no coincidence that Canada and Venezuela have to seriously consider oil production from tar Sands, despite a sharp increase in the cost of this process compared with traditional methods of oil production. Explored reserves in the Arctic and on the continental shelf. If the preconditions of the end of easy oil had not existed, these movements would not exist.

Thus, by 2025, the oil crisis may hit major countries of the world. And, like any serious economic crisis, it will provoke the growth of military danger. Given the global nature of the energy crisis, the war danger can also become global, i.e. can experience the incentives of training to the Third world war for power repartition of the energy zones of influence.

But global conflict for the redivision of the oil "market" is almost certain to occur at the regional level. In this respect, one of the most dangerous areas is the Caspian sea region, where in recent years discovered large by regional standards oil reserves. It seems that Caspian oil is the main dominant factor in the strengthening of terrorist activity and military tensions in Central Asia and the Caucasus, which are observed in recent years.

With the North-Caspian project, Kashagan, has higher hopes for the government of Kazakhstan. With the beginning of commercial production of the Kashagan Kazakhstan will enter the top 5 largest oil producers in the world.

Proven oil reserves of Kazakhstan according to various estimates is about 5-6,4 billion tons, i.e. they are about the same as in Libya and Russia8,9. The level of annual production in recent years – 70 million tons domestic consumption of oil is only about 12-12. 5 million tonnes per year, which is due to the small population of Kazakhstan is about 16,45 million people – only 1,5 times more than in Moscow.

Thus, the oil factor in the risk group includes 5 countries: Iran, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Nigeria, Russia.

 

2. New global and regional currencies, as risk factors

Another factor, significant for a possible military aggression plans of some countries to issue a new reserve currency: regional or global. Special irritation in the world backstage raises the prospect of its reference to the real values, for example, to gold. In this case, such currencies there is a real chance to compete with the dollar and the Euro.

In the Muslim world are not by chance talking about the gold standard. The idea of a Muslim currency, provided by precious metal, very old. It is about 1.5 thousand years, the Dinar is mentioned in the Quran. In particular, in the sayings of Prophet Muhammad condemning the practice of usury (RIBA), says about gold and silver10.

On the concept of the Prime Minister of Malaysia Mahathir Mohammad, presented in 2002-2003, cross-country payments in gold Dinar should be implemented by Muslim countries through clearing arrangements. Was the information that since October 2003, inter-state settlement between Malaysia and Iran was carried out in the gold Dinar at the agreed prices and tariffs for goods and services in mutual trade. Malaysia and Iran have agreed to co-sponsor a foreign exchange rate of such money. The internal circulation of gold Dinar is scheduled to enter in 2004-2005.

At the Congress of the Communist party of China in 2007 was planned to announce the transition to "gold yuan". This would make the Chinese national currency independent of the us dollar would be a significant blow to the U.S. financial system11.

"Should the Arab countries to remain a mere pawn of the USA or to strive for their own development?" This question was brought up Saddam Hussein in February 1990, Speaking before the heads of States of inter-Arab cooperation Council (Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan), he demanded the withdrawal of American troops from the region: "If the peoples of the Gulf, along with all Arabs, are not vigilant, the Arab Gulf region will be governed by the United States". He proposed to conclude an agreement on regional economic cooperation12. Hussein was killed not because he gave the order to use chemical weapons against the Kurds (what's the US to some Kurds?), but because he tried to limit the circulation of the dollar in the middle East region.

The Libyan government had plans to introduce the "gold Dinar" – regional currency, alternative to the American dollar North Africa and the middle East. The authority Gaddafi could facilitate the implementation of this plan. According to the world shakers these plans is a crime deserving the most severe punishment. This is not forgiven anyone. One only this reason enough to ruin any, even the most prosperous country.

In Libya absent the interest rate, which corresponds to the Muslim system of moral values. It would seem a trifle. But it breaks the current world order, which in the early 20th century established financial groups, has undermined bases of functioning of the modern global financial system and organized 100 years ago with the direct participation of the Rothschilds the Federal reserve system (FRS) the USA.

Since 2006, Iran has considered the possibility of organizing exchange trade in oil not for dollars but for euros.

In December 2007, 6 countries – members of the cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG) – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the UAE signed an agreement on a common currency "Dinard Bay"13.

The document envisaged the creation of a monetary Council which was to oversee the establishment of the Central Bank of the Persian Gulf in Riyadh. Isn't this the main causes of the spread of the "Arab spring" in these countries?

In 2009, members of the "Bolivarian alternative for the Americas" was supposed to establish since January 2010, the same for Bolivia, Venezuela and Nicaragua currency. This was announced by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez – one of the world's major adversaries, the United States14.

In early 2009, Kazakhstan proposed to introduce a new single currency for payments between States of the Eurasian economic community (EurAsEC), which in addition to Kazakhstan are Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. It should be "a single interstate supranational payment unit non-cash" and its rate "should not depend on fluctuations in world currencies," said in Astana N. Nazarbayev at the forum "Economic security of Eurasia in the system of global risks"15.

Later Kazakhstan and China have proposed to introduce a common supranational reserve currency of the Shanghai cooperation organization (SCO). This was reported on June 16, 2009 the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev at the plenary session of the SCO in Yekaterinburg. According to him, such a currency can be tied to a "basket" of national currencies of the countries – participants of the organization. N. Nazarbayev stressed that, in his opinion, the use of one national currency as a reserve in the world – "outdated scheme", which only leads to benefit the country issuing the currency14.

In March 2009, Russia and China proposed to replace the dollar with a new global reserve currency and assign it to the emission of international financial institutions16,17. In 1969 the IMF created the SDR, which are still used as units of account of the Fund. However, as the crisis worsens, SDR could become a reserve currency that would be controlled by only international organizations. The rejection of the dollar payments would protect the reserves of the countries of the impairment loss and would remove the dependence of the world financial system from one state of the USA.

Before the opening of the April (2009) for the G20 summit in London, the Russian side withdrew their offer. But representatives of Russian state authorities continue to talk about his plans to turn the rouble into a regional currency and the establishment of the financial center.

Russia together with China is in the informal BRICS bloc. In the Declaration of April (2011) of the BRICS summit, its members made a serious step to reduce dependence on the dollar, which commemorated unkind words and on 2 previous forums BRIC without the participation of the Republic of South Africa. This time the head of the state development banks of the five (Vnesheconombank, the development Bank of Brazil, the Export-import Bank of India, the China development Bank and the development Bank of South Africa) signed a framework agreement for lending money to each other in national currencies.

Now members of the BRICS will try to get away from the dollar in mutual trade, and development banks of the five signed an agreement on the funding of joint projects.

Thus, from the above 5 countries 4 countries: Iran, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Russia is dangerous "lit up" in trying to create a new regional currency.

Of course, this is no accident. Oil producing countries have to sell oil for dollars. Because in the world annually produces and consumes about 4 billion tons of oil, the revenue from its sales is $2.5-3 trillion. Approximately half of its exporters have been forced to translate in an international foreign exchange reserves and sovereign wealth funds. Actually freeze for a long time to the delight of the U.S. Federal reserve, which in this way can allow each year to print about $1trn. Simply put, oil-producing countries pay tribute to the fed and behind the financial groups.

Naturally, oil producers want to change these extortionate terms, to abandon the dollar and switch to real value such as gold or silver, since they produce and supply to the world also values quite real.

 

3. Chinese risk factor

China is the main strategic rival of the USA on the world stage. It is not excluded that some part of the world government made a bet on China. For the development of the countries needed energy resources, primarily oil. Therefore, the confrontation between the U.S. and China for energy resources is only a matter of time.

Currently is preparing for such a global confrontation. The parties are trying to weaken each other's positions, including in other countries and regions. Therefore, those countries that are intensively cooperating with China, are in the area of military risk.

Republican Paul Craig Roberts, who served under President Ronald Reagan Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, believed that the US fought in Libya is not Gaddafi, but with China. Since he is no longer a state official, could not afford to call a spade a spade. In the magazine Foreign Policy Journal, Roberts wrote that "protests against Qaddafi, apparently, were organized by the CIA in the Eastern part of Libya, where 80 percent of oil reserves and where there are significant Chinese investment in the energy sector".

Version is very similar to the truth. According to the Ministry of Commerce of China, by March, when we started military operation in Libya worked 75 major Chinese companies, they have signed contracts on $18 billion and because of military actions in Libya are expecting large losses.

Gaddafi was a good reason to deal with China, which in recent years has literally bought up the entire continent of Africa. If in 1995 the volume of trade of China with Africa was $6 billion, in 2010 it exceeded $130 billion According to the southern African Standard Bank, by 2015, only China's direct investments in African countries reached $50 billion China is currently Africa receives 28% of its oil imports, and this figure will grow: the Chinese company one after another there acquire the largest deposits.

Chinese expansion in Africa – focused and well-organized. Chinese companies are more willing mastered the mineral resources of Africa, state-sponsored low-interest lending to banks and investment risks are covered by a specially established China-Africa Development Fund (assets of $5 billion). In most African countries has a permanent trade mission of the PRC. Opened in Beijing the China-Africa chamber of Commerce, talks are underway about creating a free trade zone with the countries of Southern Africa. China intends to create in Africa 5 free economic zones, and the first has already been created in the "copper belt" of Zambia.

China's position is perfectly natural – he needs somewhere to invest their dollar reserves mnogomillionniy.

So, it is clear the U.S. desire to slow down the establishment of Chinafrica, albeit under the pretext of supporting "freedom-loving Libyan rebels", many of which dealt with al-Qaeda.

In recent years, oil exports of Iran to China is estimated at 25-27 million tonnes, and the growth rate is very high: for the first 4 months of this year, the Iranian oil exports to China grew 32%18.

Currently China is the main consumer of crude oil of Iran. In 2010, Iranian oil imports covered approximately 12% of all China's need for crude oil. Iran was the 3rd largest supply volume importer of oil. China's investment in infrastructure of Iran surpass $120 billion.

China ignores the cries of Washington on sanctions against Iran, proceeding in this matter solely from the interests of its economy. And if Iran will make their prices more attractive in comparison with the prices of competitors from South America and the Middle East, other OPEC members will become increasingly difficult to expand its presence in the rapidly growing Chinese market19.

April 19, 2010 China announced the expansion of cooperation with Venezuela. Beijing will lend to Caracas $20 billion and will create JV in oil production in the Orinoco belt, said Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez: "China needs energy security and we will provide them with oil". China has already invested in 2009 to $12 billion bilateral investment Fund, of which $8 billion Caracas uses for the development of infrastructure, and Beijing is 460 thousand barrels of oil per day (23 million tons/year)20.

Kazakhstan is in the zone of direct influence of China.

In 2008, China controlled 21% of the total oil production in Kazakhstan is 2.5 times greater than strategic partner Russia.

2009 brought China a real success story: the $10 billion it received one of the main assets in Kazakh oil sector, which was claimed by "Gazprom Neft", – 49% of the company "Mangistaumunaigas" (MMG), as well as potential access to uranium deposits. Bend under him one third of Kazakh energy resources, China has provided oil transportation by oil pipeline Kazakhstan – China (total capacity of pipes – up to 20 million tons per year). The estimated commissioning of the Kazakhstan-China pipeline, which will flow of Turkmen gas, will seriously weaken Gazprom's position, and would in fact deprive him of the monopoly.

There is an opinion that China will begin to absorb former Soviet Union from Kazakhstan21. In addition, it is a convenient bridgehead for a possible military attack on China: the total length of the border between the two countries is 1783 km

In recent years, the export of oil and oil products from Russia to China is about 15 million tons/year (about 1.5 times more than the supply from Libya), the basic deliveries are conducted by railway through Manchuria, as well as through Kazakhstan and through ports of the Far East. Since December 2010 started supplying oil via a new pipeline Skovorodino – Daqing.

The implementation of the signed in April 2009, the intergovernmental agreement will allow Russia in 2011 to increase the share of supplies to the Chinese market to foreign supplies of oil at 15-16%. By 2020, the total exports of oil and oil products to China from Russia may reach 70-80 million tons. According to forecasts, by this time, oil consumption in China will reach 560-600 million tons while the import 380-420 million T.22 i.e. in the current decade, Russia could become one of the main suppliers of energy resources to China.

Russian-Chinese relations are a priority for Russia in 2011 has Been a trend of rapid development of cooperation in all fields, Russia is interested to increase the economic component and to supply to China more technological products.

Between China and Russia reached agreements in the field of conventional and nuclear power and in those areas that will not only increase the volume of economic interaction, but also to increase the share of innovative products.

Not to the superfluous will remind that Russia and China abstained from voting resolution No. 1973 of the UN Security Council on Libya, and in early October 2011, both countries vetoed a draft resolution on Syria.

It is clear that in the near future the U.S. and its allies will not go for military confrontation with China that could lead to large losses on both sides. It's not their style. First, the United States will try to the maximum extent to create problems for China by hitting those countries which depend on its potential.

 

4.National and religious risk factors

When deciding on the aggression against the country will be important national and religious factors, the balance of power in the country.

Representatives of world governments – mostly persons of Jewish nationality. So they have a negative attitude to the leaders and peoples of those countries that do not respect Jews, Judaism and Israel.

Iran is the opponent of the state of Israel throughout its history. Particular irritation among representatives of world shakers is causing the consistent position of Iran in the denial of the Holocaust during the Second world war (the Holocaust) is the ideological basis of the revival of Israel.

Another important point is that Iran is steadily moving towards mastering nuclear technology, despite already 4 packages of international sanctions and the assassination of nuclear physicists. Of course, that Israel (which is a strategic U.S. ally in the middle East and he has long possessed nuclear weapons) is afraid to get strong, historically motivated enemy with nuclear weapons near their borders. The more Iran will advance to the creation of nuclear weapons, the more likely the use against him of military force.

Here are not excluded provocations of different types of accusations of Iran's leadership in the organization of attempt at the Saudi Ambassador in Washington (isn't that curious – the USA for several years perekuril Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and now concerned about the fate of the Saudi Ambassador).

In Russia, Jews live very well – just look at the list of Russian millionaires, to look at the individuals in the presidential Administration, the Federation Council, state Duma, government and local authorities.

To war with Russia, still possess a large Arsenal of nuclear weapons – our own peril. Easier to maintain control of the situation by the internal factors. In addition, Russia it is advisable to keep for future use as a possible ally in a future war with China.

About Venezuela, it would seem simple: it is next to USA, so it's easy to organize another coup, to lead to the power needs of the ruler and to solve oil issue in favor of the United States. But being close to the U.S., this country is far away from their main enemy – China. Therefore, it is the same minus and plus: a springboard for attacks on China in Venezuela will not create. Easier to wait for the natural and the managed change of the leader of the country, given the illness of Hugo chávez.

More things to think about: 4 June 2009 an international human rights organization Freedom House published a report, "Undermining democracy: authoritarian countries of the XXI century". Russia, along with China, Iran and Venezuela, is named after a country that "actively undermining democracy within their borders and beyond"23.

See how completely alien people are worried, that we all lived well.

Now about Kazakhstan. As noted in24 (hereinafter will be benefited of this article), it is the society divided into clans, where is a rapid process of ethnic and tribal disintegration, is complicated by the contradictions between the zhuzes, and where resuscitated the medieval model of personnel policy. The processes of social degradation in Kazakhstan has not gone as far as in Libya, but they are intense.

Another factor which is increasingly determining the face of Kazakhstan, became Islam. Even in large cities there was a fashion for beards and hijabs, and in the Western regions there has been a spread of Salafism, a branch of which is Wahhabism.

On top of this explosive pyramid is greedy and heterogeneous in orientation "elite". Some look to America, while others are associated through business with the Chinese or Russian lobby. Today, only the authority of President Nursultan Nazarbayev holds in equilibrium this complex, torn and hardware intrigues, system.

In the beginning, Kazakhstan's Parliament approved amendments to the Constitution, allowing Nazarbayev to be elected President an unlimited number of times. This, in fact, the monarchist initiative is perceived as an attempt by "elites" to defend against the emergence of a new, clothed with the same powers of a leader who not having the advantages Nazarbayev, can turn into a threat for all the despot.

This summer, Nursultan Nazarbayev, a 71-year anniversary, and a worthy successor, able to act in the interests of the country and focus in the international scenario, while is not visible. His quest not only prevents staff shortage, but the local clans, which had spared no efforts in Stripping those who can claim to be the new leader.

The main objects of attention are the elite sons-in-law of Nazarbayev. 4 years ago was hunted down and left the country the husband of the eldest daughter of the President Rakhat Aliyev. He oversaw many of the Kazakh mass media, had connections in law enforcement and clearly abused these opportunities. Today, a similar situation was the husband of the average daughter, Timur Kulibayev, supervising the strategic state holdings.

In the summer of 2001 in Zhanaozen went on strike at once all oil fields managed by Chinese companies. Neighboring wells, developed by Western business, continued to work quietly, and the strike in Zhanaozen sympathetically covered the American and European media.

Timur Kulibayev, who called the instigators of the strike of the Kazakhs, who came from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, was branded for inciting social hatred, but the leadership of the youth movement "Rukh pen Teal" promised to bring the matter to court. Then the same "Rukh pen Teal" held in Alma-ATA eight thousandth demonstration demanding the resignation of "Pro-Chinese" Prime Minister Karim Massimov and exit of the Customs Union with Russia.

All this youth vanity is strikingly similar to the events in Ukraine on the eve of the orange revolution, with the difference that the Kazakh "movement" until the bear poster "Nazarbayev, get out!". But the Kazakh youth is opposed to cooperation with Russia and China, and methodically attacks people on whom the President relies.

When you consider that the richest in mineral resources and important in geopolitical terms Kazakhstan is the object of attention of Russia, China and the United States, it is easy to figure out who benefits from actions of the Kazakh youth. Especially, if to take on trust the information about intensive contacts Western emissaries with the leadership of the Kazakh clans, about attempts to build bridges and varied promises and assurances.

While not talking about the creation of the transitional national Council, or the machinations against Nazarbayev: you can wait, the more that President Nazarbayev elderly and not very healthy. But clearly the beginning of preparations for the change of power in the natural course of things.

How to do it – the technology, the more that Kazakhstan has similarities with Libya. In both countries the medieval clan society meets advanced technology. The gap between Western-oriented lifestyle of the Kazakh cities reminiscent of the rift between the developed North and the wild South of Libya. In both countries, the same struggle of clans, the same game by inciting social and ethnic hatred, the same attempts to infect the society of Islamic fanaticism.

The main conditions are set for "Central Asian spring", especially in neighboring Kyrgyzstan still operates a U.S. military base.

 

Conclusions

The analysis showed that the intersection of all these risk factors strategic targets for a new military aggression with a high probability can become 2 countries: Iran and Kazakhstan.

Syria, Yemen and Oman, which also can get "under distribution" are considered as tactical rather than strategic goals.

Speaking of Iran, the conclusion is fairly obvious, regarding Kazakhstan, it is desirable to make clarifying explanations lead to additional facts.

Such facts are available.

In mid-October it became known that former Prime Minister Tony Blair became a consultant to the leadership of Kazakhstan on the issues of economic reform24. It would seem nothing special: Kazakhstan pursues liberal reforms since the early 90s, when the local elite to send their children to study in Western universities, and now in the country there is a layer of skilled Western orientated specialists.

Tony Blair, for his part, is already 3 years successfully engaged in financial and economic consulting. His clients, among them including investment Bank JP Morgan, insurance firm Zurich Financial Services and one of the richest people in the world, French businessman Bernard Arnault, do not hide that value not only the qualification of the former Prime Minister, but its non-trivial communication: previously as a political consultant Blair through his firm Tony Blair Associates worked with some States and major foreign companies – the government of Kuwait, the Bank JPMorgan Chase and the South Korean oil company UI Energy Corporation

Why Kazakhstan does not take advantage of these opportunities?

But the thing is that before the events in Libya Tony Blair advising on financial issues of Muammar Gaddafi and even considered "a friend of his family". And now the rich experience gained in Libya, will be applied in Kazakhstan, where society is divided into clans, where is a rapid process of ethnic and tribal disintegration, is complicated by the contradictions between the zhuzes, and where resuscitated the medieval model of personnel policy.

As the saying goes, "beware of Greeks bearing gifts". So Kazakhstan still need to keep on your list for potential targets.

  

A list of sources used

[1] K. Melnikov, "On the shelf don't leave" (the program of its development till 2030 developed) // "Kommersant" № 198 (4739) from 21.10.2011 G.

[2] "the rich Libya" // Kommersant" № 199 (4740) from 22.10.2011 G.

[3] Laurent C., "Oil: lies, secrets, fraud". Translated from French Tatiana Zhdanova – M: JSC "Publishing house STOLITSA – PRINT", 2008

[4] After 5 years will start a war for oil, 2010, http://www.utro.ru/articles/2010/04/22/889824.shtml

[5] Kravchenko E. Mazneva, E. "Oil at all is not enough" / / Vedomosti № 143 (2413) dated 04.08.2009

[6] Ghost energokrizisa appeared on the horizon, 2009 – http://rnd.cnews.ru/tech/news/top/index_science.shtml?2009/08/04/356282

 

[7] the Bundeswehr has predicted the second wave of the crisis, 2009 – http://top.rbc.ru/economics/02/09/2010/459178.shtml

[8] Kazakhstan increased production of oil and gas – British Petroleum – http://www.diapazon.kz/kazakhstan/kaz-economy/28871-kazakhstan-uvelichil-dobychu-nefti-i-gaza-british.html

[9] Oil and gas. 11th international exhibition 21-24 June 2011 Expocentre – http://www.mioge.ru/RU/world/kioge/

[10] Wikipedia "Gold Dinar" – http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%97%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B9_%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80

[11] China is preparing to switch to a gold-backed national currencies, 2007– http://www.km.ru/glavnoe/2007/09/21/kommentarii-dnya/kitai-gotovitsya-pereiti-na-zolotoe-obespechenie-svoei-natsional

[12] M. Colonna, "What lies behind "war on international terrorism"? – http://psyfactor.org/terrorwar.htm

[13] "Gulf Dinar", gold, energobaltia and vector multi-currency in the future after the First global great depression, 2008 – http://www.polit.nnov.ru/2008/01/15/multigcconsens/

[14] Grinaev S. N., Fomin A. N. "The fundamental problems of anti-crisis development of the Russian financial market" – 2009, http://www.csef.ru/studies/economics/projects/reasons_of_current_crisis/analytics/429/

[15] Nazarbayev N. "Keys to the crisis" // Russian newspaper, 2009 –http://www.rg.ru/2009/02/02/autoritetno.html

[16] China calls for a supranational reserve currency http://top.rbc.ru/economics/23/03/2009/288924.shtml

[17] Kravchenko E. "Replacing the dollar" / / Vedomosti № 52(2322) dated 25.03.2009

[18] Iran increased by a third of oil exports to China, 2011 – http://www.vestikavkaza.ru/news/politika/oppoz/38491.html

[19] Petroleum exchange in Iran is the harbinger of problems for new York and London? 2011 – http://janarmenian.ru/2011/07/neftyanaya-birzha-v-irane-predvestnik-problem-dlya-nyu-jorka-i-londona/

[20] the Turnover of China's foreign trade will exceed 5 trillion. dollars, 2010 – http://ukrrudprom.com/news/Oborot_vneshney_torgovli_Kitaya_previsit_5_trln_dollarov.html

[21] China will begin to absorb former Soviet Union from Kazakhstan. Part 1 – http://kp.ru/daily/24395/572647/

[22] the Cooperation between Russia and China in the oil and gas sector. The interests, concerns and prospects, 2011 – http://www.oilandgaseurasia.ru/articles/p/135/article/1435/

[23] "Democracy undermined the oil and gas" (another Freedom House report makes new claims against Russia) // Kommersant" № 100(4155) from 5.06.2009 G.

[24] Kazakhstan can expect a Libyan scenario, 2011 – http://www.rosugol.ru/news/politics.php?ELEMENT_ID=10630

Tags: Russia , USA , crisis , Libya


RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics
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