From primitive ideological "blame the US and the sales agents" (used in this category could be "the machinations of international communism") to the position of ostriches - "Yes, everything will ground, and will be as usual". From "the machinations of the Zionists" - to the opposite - " it is al-Qaeda and the Muslim brotherhood of Bernotat water in the pond." Option- "was it all Churchill in the eighteenth year" of stupidity no worse than attempts to impose the role of an organizer of the riots on the Internet.

Guesswork,- "but if not US? What if not the Islamists?" here not the assistant. Just as suddenly the assessment of experts from the policy and the dinosaurs from science. Will highlight two of the most advanced assessment. First - educated youth are deprived of the opportunity of self-realization here and rebelled. Where, in Libya and Yemen, the impoverished? Just look at the TV screen, to understand what it is not. Second,- the masses spoke out against the total domination of corruption for democratic transformation. Oh, can't keep me three. And I ask a question? This wouldn't happen in Eurasia? No, Yes? Ah, so it's on the foreign Muslim Eastern. For example, in the great Socialist people's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya. OK then...In that case let me move from an unprincipled political assessments and journalism to attempt a scientific analysis of what is happening.

It seems appropriate to refer to heuristics of science - description, explanation, prediction. An undisputed breakthrough in the research of the geopolitics was the labor Director of the Institute for strategic studies, Harvard University (USA) Professor W. Huntington. The first brief version of the study titled "the Clash of the civilizations?" appeared in the journal "Foreign affairs" in the early nineties of the last century. The undoubted achievement of the author and the team of scientists was, in particular, the concept of the civilizational approach to describe and explain global processes and the possible geopolitical consequences. In fairness it should be emphasized that the main focus of the work was done on the foreign policy side of the phenomenon of "clash of civilizations". Proposing a classification of contemporary civilizations, a scientist described them as cultural community of the highest rank, in which the most important is religion. "Civilization is dynamic: they can be rise and fall, they break apart and merge...of civilization disappear."

However, further advancement of research along the path indicated by the Professor, deepening and expanding its concept, elaboration of practical recommendations and their implementation followed. For example, as used by the United States and their slaves, conclusions and evaluation? With full confidence it is now possible to state the exact opposite. Confirmation of US policy with allies over the past two decades, is a bet on brute force, military adventures, support is not viable, but easy modes. "In fact the West uses the international organization, military power and financial resources in order to rule the world, asserting their dominance, protect Western interests and arguing that Western political and economic values." - wrote William Huntington. And now to the coast of Libya contracted strike group of ships of the U.S. Navy. Lord, it is not necessary to put out the fire with kerosene!

Policy against Islamic extremism, radicalism, terrorism... we will Give only one public fact, between the so-called counter-terrorist operation in Afghanistan, the country became the world's largest producer of drugs and their delivery abroad increased in half! Only drunk hedgehog does not know that drug trafficking and extremism, including Islamic, are interrelated. Indeed during that fight.

It is paradoxical sounds, but its responsibility for the situation must bear the scientific community in General, and the author of this essay, in particular. Yes, Yes, and he is better than others? The position that there are "smart uncle" and all for all, decide, erroneous and perverse. For the simple reason that "smart uncle" is the notion of collective. It is this feeling of "guilt" over their inaction and detachment prompted the author to activity in the face of what is happening dramatic events, and future challenges. Therefore, the criticism that will be performed to address the scientific community, equally applies to the author himself.

It appears that the main error of the global scientific community is that complex problems "Dar al-Islam" and its place in the system the geo-coordinates were considered and examined outside of the organic link with the concept of "Islamic civilization" (I. Z. - in the future). Was developed and proved a powerful conceptual apparatus that was used for the study of individual elements and (or) in favor of a political order. In other words, a single brick was seen only as an independent object of study, rather than as one of the components as a subassembly. Hence numerous works by the so-called "Islamic factor", "Islamic movement," "Islamic extremism", al-Qaida, Wahhabism, etc. by the Way, the last bad without pairing with extremism? Of course, the scientific study of such phenomena is necessary and important. Only if it fits the blocks into a single concept of the building! Builders-bricklayers are required to understand it. If not, it opens the scope for incorrect assessments and scientific mistakes that fuel and justify the erroneous political decisions and practical action.

It seems necessary to illustrate this with a concrete example. One of the subjects of the so-called "Islamic movement" is an organization such as the "Muslim brotherhood". With the light hand of the scholars and in favor of political order, the organization has been classified as a radical extremist. Is this true and from whose point of view? For completeness, let's take two opposing components – "Islam al-Rasmi" (Institute of official authorities of Islam) and "Islam al-Khalq" (folk Islam). Now, in the countries of traditional distribution of Islam, the organization is an integral element "of Islam al-Khalq", but it is objectionable "Islam al-Rasmi" corrupt regimes. Whose side is the scientific world and who supports?

On his life journey, the author met a wonderful man, we'll call him Mohammed. Arab from a wealthy family, citizen its monarch, Mohammed received an excellent education in the West, traveled half the world. Absolutely secular people in the European style, he occupies an important position in the higher echelons. Rich, successful, popular, happy family life. And every month he secretly and anonymously! transfers money to "fellow Muslims". On the question of the author, why did he do so Mohammed said, "They act for the people."

And we who, Lord of the world's scientists? Isn't it time to reject outworn dogmas and erroneous assessment? The realities of the present stage of development dictate the need to audit the assessment system, as if it didn't sound mean-spirited.

Special consideration is given to the study of "Dar al-Islam" in Russia. Funding social Sciences by a residual principle led to disaster! Disaster!!! As Nietzsche - God is dead... it's about our studies. Conventionally those who are still in science, can be divided into the following categories: dinosaurs, romance, losers and the few successful scientific minds. Everyone else, who is more practical and faster is already long gone in various funds and non-governmental organizations (another question – who is funding them and for what purpose). His life and they are ruling the roost, the only science there and does not smell...

The collapse events in the East brought all to a screeching halt. The first dinosaurs came to their senses and begin to give explanations. The apotheosis was the recent statement of the corresponding member of RAS, Director of the research Institute (for ethical reasons his name is not called). Speaking on DH, he said the following:

1. The driving force behind the uprisings in the Islamic countries is the youth.
2. The organizer of the uprisings is the Internet and the Internet community.

Following the logic of our scientist it is permissible to say that the revolution in Russia was made by the students and high-school students and the organizer of leaflets and Newspapers. To restore historical justice it must be said that the driving force behind any revolution (not revolution!) American, great French, Russian are the masses of the people. As a means of communication and exchange of information the Internet is, by definition, cannot be the organizer and subject. Organized anti-government Internet community in Yemen or Libya is akin to the presence of a six-cylinder internal combustion engine of a camel. Maybe a similar comparison of our academician and his associates will be more acceptable and understandable?

So, we come to the consideration of the cluster of problems associated with the current stage of development of the situation in "Dar al-Islam". Speaking about "world of Islam" it should be borne in mind that this dozens of States, with a population of nearly one billion! States with different socio-political, financial-economic, national-cultural and religious components. Among them westernized, "francuzhenki" Tunisia, and a kaleidoscope of tribes and ethnic group of Libya, the Shia Islamic Republic of Iran and the Sunni Wahabi monarchy of Saudi Arabia. Among them multinational Afghanistan, bleeding, destroyed Somalia and the rich Emirates of the Persian Gulf. What is common between them?

From the point of view of the concept of "I. T.", the historical pendulum of change has swung from domination "of Islam al-Rasmi" side "of Islam al-Khalq", expressing the interests and hopes of the broad masses of the population. The cause of the aging revolutionary situation in a number of Islamic countries was to deepen the contradictions between them and their transition to a qualitatively new level. Remember the textbook,- the upper classes can not, and the lower classes do not want to live the old! The most characteristic and visible manifestations of this conflict are the events in Libya, where the "official Islam" has found its highest embodiment in the doctrine of the "Green book" of Gaddafi. The armed confrontation between opponents of the regime and its defenders leads to full-scale civil war and even the disintegration of the state. Our eyes begins to unfold the scenario of foreign military intervention, "the oil must flow".

The transition of these contradictions in the phase of conflict has led in due time to overthrow the Pro-American regime of the Shah of Iran and the establishment of the Islamic Republic. In the country, which was the main strategic ally of the US in the region. In a country where the Americans thought they control everything, including the all powerful and sinister secret service "SAVAK". Want shocking detail? In one of the dungeons in the "SAVAK" the rebels found a whole wall papered with torn out human nails!

What is the result? The United States has become Satan No. 1 for Iran and its people and radical Islam gained its statehood. The Iranian revolution was all a complete surprise, however, as current events in the middle East. But the links of one chain rooted and focused on the concept of development "I. C."!

I would like to make one serious warning. Let him hear, who cannot hear. Military intervention and the predictable attempts to create the puppet of education in Eastern Libya in the area of oil fields will yield only a reverse effect. Temporary stabilization of oil supply would fail and the outbreak of extremism that all will not find it. Defend Gaddafi (read – "Islam al-Rasmi") its authority to the rest of the country, or go in tribes and follow is a people's war against foreign invaders for their share in the national income. Lord! As soon as the foreign forces withdrew from Afghanistan and Iraq, their current puppet regimes will fall, tensions and negative impacts will increase significantly. And will respond to this radical, extremist and terrorist part of the "Islam al-Khalq". Crime to create a new fire!

The cyclical nature of the events dictates the idea that the passions in the middle East may at some time come to naught (except Libya), and then will flash with new force. There is no doubt that non-governmental Islamic organizations and political parties will take on a new weight and great features. That will entail the radicalization of the situation and sudden shift the current balance of power. No regime in the Muslim East cannot be sure of their destiny! The attempts at solving problems (and / or military intervention) would only be the catalyst activation dramatic events. The wave of refugees will flood Europe and the Islamic East is mired in an abyss of riots and armed clashes (including anti-government, clan, tribal, religious, Shia - Sunni, etc.).

Dramatically reduced energy supply, and breaks out of this global crisis, compared to which the current will look like a children's matinee of the graduates of the parish school. Scary to think what the consequences will then of the imminent food catastrophe. The world cringes in horror...

Apocalyptic? Yes! Possible similar outcome? More than... forewarned is forearmed!

For further and more in-depth understanding of the trends of events in the countries of traditional spread of Islam and the world in General, it is possible to return in the scientific circulation the concept of "passionarity". (lat - passion i.e. passion). The concept of "passionarity" was put forward by L. Gumilev and consisted in the description and explanation of the dominant activity of individuals and ethnic group in the world, and was unfairly forgotten in our time. Seems possible to extend the notion of "passionarity" of the transition initiatives, the dominant global development to one country or group of States. The whole course of the historical process represents the transition of drive from one subject this process to the next.

Consider a short segment of events of modern times. The arrival of passionarity in Germany led to the outbreak of two World wars with their untold disasters and the deaths of millions. At the same time, it entailed a radical change in world order and balance of power. In particular, the First world war helped transform the U.S. from second-rate regional leader in one of the world powers. The results of the Second world stated the transition of drive from Germany to the United States and the Soviet Union. Pax Americana, on the one hand, and the "socialist camp", the other led to military confrontation between two hostile blocs, and brought humanity to the brink of nuclear annihilation. The collapse of the socialist bloc and then of the Soviet Union marked the transition of drive alone to the United States. The United States became autocratic world leader, and the bipolar world became unipolar.

At this stage, the passion, USA, impedes the counterweight (Europe it is, unfortunately, not become) has passed all bounds of reasonable and appropriate. From the former leader of democracy, who helped to establish the principles of democracy in Europe and Asia, in the East and in Africa, they have become world dictator. The implementation of the slogan "what's good for America, good for the world" eventually led to the global crisis, widespread tensions, a series of conflicts.

Ladies and gentlemen! Nothing terrible and extraordinary happened and until it happens. Everything ahead! The above events only indicate that the stage of passionarity of the United States coming to an end and, in addition, there is a global systemic crisis. The characteristic of any system: the emergence, development, phase stability, degradation and disappearance. First it drew the attention of representatives of fundamental Sciences, theoretical physicists. Therefore, it is about the final stages of functioning of the old system and the aging of the elements of the new system of global coordinates, the formation of which will lead to the creation of new regulators.

Role of a passionate leader – the USA comes to an end, the old regulators, ranging from the UN, IMF, NATO, and the EU to the OIC, the OAU, the Arab League has clearly no longer cope with its functions (degradation stage). Why are only empty oration to the UN on the situation in the middle East and sanctions on Libya or the Arab League decision to postpone in the light of developments in the region is meeting... in may. The coordinators of the elaboration of global recommendations - the Bilderberg group, the Tripartite Commission, club of Rome, etc. were frozen in stagnation and confusion. Davos. Instead of aligning the strategic actions of the world's elite currently signing contracts for the supply of hydrocarbons from Russia to Europe.

Imagine human civilization as a system, body, new features which arise along with development. Old functions were obsolete, has developed itself and to replace them come new. The new structure of the body dictates the need for the emergence of other regulators ' processes and their coordinators.

What will be the new framework under the trend of global development, will mankind go to her "little blood"?

Who is still to blame? And no one is guilty. Mistaken and short-sighted to pass on to the United States the blame for the current situation in the middle East and the world at large. If things were this way, the solution would be the simplest and easiest. Branded USA and the Western countries shame and bad words, created a system of checks and balances, and all will be well. Will not! Do not create! United States, is only one component of the objective process of development, which has led to a systemic crisis. Playing a role and losing the drive, they in the not too distant future will cease to be dominant and will depart on their worthy place in the world.

Who will take their place, Europe? Unlikely. Rather, it awaits the fate of cultural centre and tourist Museum under the open sky. With powerful security, including nuclear capabilities, and technologies for export. Oh yeah, I almost forgot its culinary potential and creative "Haute couture". BRIC? A Swan, a cancer Yes pike in the same boat. Just new world powers in the upcoming new system of coordinates. Of Southeast Asia? We'll see. Is theoretically possible to establish a new world center of power on the basis of the unification of Europe or China and Russia. The second option is something of a black joke – share a summary of hostilities with the Finnish-Chinese border.

As said the wise aunt Sonya from Odessa, problems need to be solved in the order they are received. The main and paramount on the agenda is the question of the development of the situation in "Dar al-Islam". Let's formulate on another, the transition of the internal development of I. T. in an active phase. And this is only the beginning, because there is still a phase of the external development! Forward-thinking minds already recognize that the situation is long-term and will lead to major changes in the balance of power. It is possible to draw the following conclusion,- the passion passes to T. I. If this is the objective historical tendency, and fight it is useless and hopeless!

Impossible to protect, but to adjust not only possible, but necessary. There are two main options, scenario for the future development of events. First, force "a La Americana", which is military intervention in support of one of the warring parties to protect the interests of the West. A dead end, leading to increased tensions and enhance its external component, including extremism and terrorism. The second way is indicated by the recent joint statement of Foreign ministries of Russia and Saudi Arabia about the inadmissibility of military intervention.

The question arises, what now to sit idly by and watch as the two brothers carry each other's forelocks and krushat all around? Does! Still available are the regulators and coordinators needed urgently! to develop a programme of joint action of all interested States of the world. Ranging from full-scale humanitarian aid and ending with the introduction of "external management" and protection from destruction of oil and gas complexes. Their protection of both warring parties should engage all the major powers, including India, China, Russia. Call an emergency meeting of the UN security Council to send an international force to protect neftekhimikov. Protection from the air will provide the us air force. To engage as observers and arbitrators of prominent Sunni and Shiite leaders. Quite mistreated Iran, which demonstrates a fine example of cooperation with Christian Armenia.

The list of possible practical actions is much wider, however, their enumeration is beyond the scope of the tasks that were put before itself by the author.

To summarize, it seems necessary to emphasize the following - the author does not claim truth in last instance and does not act as a judge. Don't judge... the Picture of the modern world and its development immeasurably more difficult the above schematic, and sometimes unproven descriptions. The main task of the author was to attempt to bring up for discussion the informal vision of the global change and emerging new coordinate system from the perspective of the events in "Dar al-Islam". How correct or erroneous, the findings can only say our common future. I want to wish everyone aspiring to an early and favorable outcome just one. Good luck!

ts.longin

Source: http://tslongin.livejournal.com/

Tags: Africa