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NATO is discussing a plan for the invasion of Libya
Material posted: Publication date: 26-02-2011

Perhaps NATO military will soon have to shake off the archival dust from the operational maps of the famous "desert Fox" Hitler's field Marshal Erwin Rommel. It was under his leadership during the second world war, German tanks successfully drove the British soldiers in the Libyan desert. Only soon in the desert the Germans and the British may be in the same trench.

And not only they, but also other NATO allies. It seems that NATO seriously preparing for an armed invasion is rapidly crumbling to pieces Libya. Moreover, as the US President Obama on Friday declared that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi is a threat to security and American foreign policy.

That NATO is not very would like such a development of events, willing to believe. Like the fact that the differences in the camp of the allies on this issue can be acute. It is not excluded that some of these contradictions through Fleur diplomatic talking shops already breaks out. So, on February 24 were in Kiev with the visit of NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen announced that the Alliance will not intervene in the conflict between the authorities and the opposition in Libya. But on the same day at a daily press briefing the press Secretary of the White house Jay Carney was asked a question, not whether the United States is weighing the possibility of military operations in Libya. "We are not ruling out any possibilities," Dole said Carney.

The very next day, February 25, on Friday, Rasmussen was forced to assemble an emergency meeting of the Board of the Alliance to discuss the situation in Libya. As always, nobody details the essence held in Brussels on the conversation. But the word "military intervention" all the louder around the world.

25 February on the preparation of military operation against the regime of Libyan revolution leader" Muammar Gaddafi said the Italian defence Minister Ignazio La Russa. His motivation is: "We have been told that in the South-East of Libya are the Italians, whose food supply is running out. We will save them". According to him, the defense Ministry has developed a plan for operation and only waiting for a signal from the leadership of the country.

Former Chairman of the State Council of Cuba Fidel Castro stated that the United States may encourage NATO to invade Libya, to ensure American interests in the oil industry. Castro predicted that the invasion could take place in the coming days or even hours.

Citing unnamed diplomatic sources, the same scenario predicted the Arab newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi". According to the newspaper, NATO will begin military action against the regime of Muammar Gaddafi, if it continues bombing civilians in Libya.

It is clear that concern for the fate of the civilian Arab population, and even the desire to rescue from sinking into the chaos of the country a few dozen starving Italians - so, a figure of speech for the West. For him in the North African desert where interests are more tangible – oil. 95% of Libya's territory is desert. But under the Sands lie untold riches.

Daily from under them is mined to 1.8 million barrels of oil. Moreover, the production cheap, it is not difficult, because the deposits occur close.

In General, Libya, OPEC member, is the 17th largest producer in the world and holds Africa's largest oil reserves. It is quarried on its territory the raw materials are transported to Italy through the pipe, laid on the bottom of the Mediterranean sea. Developing into a civil war riots threaten to dry up this thread. And then there cornered, Gaddafi has promised to blow up the oil station, which immediately plunged into panic global stock markets. In short, the Europeans have nothing to worry about.

If the NATO intervention in this country will still take place, it will probably be a surprise to the Libyan military. Military-air base of the Alliance in southern Italy and shock carrier battle groups of the 6th US fleet in the Mediterranean will allow combat aircraft for a few minutes to reach the goals. By the way, the experience of fighting against the great Socialist people's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya" the Americans have gained considerable.

Two of the armed conflict occurred in the Gulf of Sidra. In 1973, Gaddafi unilaterally declared territorial waters of Libya and loudly called "line of death". The Americans, of course, refuse to accept it, and continued to do in the Gulf of Sidra whatever they want. In 1981, they did not hesitate, shot down in the disputed area two Libyan su-22. Because, as it seemed to Washington, Gaddafi a lesson not learned, in April 1986, the US army conducted a military operation "Eldorado Canyon" — air raids on military targets in Tripoli and Benghazi. And in January 1989 – again the Gulf of Sidra. This time fighters from the aircraft carrier United States Navy "John F. Kennedy" had shot down two Libyan MiG-23.

What can oppose the invasion of NATO have lost, apparently, all sense of reality Gaddafi? Yes, almost anything. According to reports from that country, his army is split and part of it has already defected to the opposition. So expect her at least some significant resistance, apparently not. Argue that loyalty to the "leader of the Libyan revolution" retain soldiers of the security services and several elite units. They, according to some, now guarded by Gaddafi on a heavily fortified military base near Tripoli.

There are, however, available to Gaddafi and foreign mercenaries. How to behave when they are probable the NATO intervention? It is not excluded that many of them in the hands of European justice is better to avoid it, because you'll have to answer for the shed in the suppression of riots the blood of innocent Libyans.

By the way, may be that of the nationality of those mercenaries we have yet to learn many interesting things. After a few days ago the American edition of STRATFOR reported that at the helm of the Libyan MiGs bombed the opposition captured the city of Benghazi, sat Ukrainian pilots. You can even guess, where did this information. On the eve of the two Libyan pilot refused to participate in punitive actions and flew to Malta. If Americans obtained the data from these pilots, it is likely that they can be trusted.

And let no one be deceiving the immediate aftermath of the denial of official Kiev to say: no Ukrainian military pilot in this country. Military, maybe not. And about its ex-officers does not know everything and Kiev. This confirms my own investigation facing Ukraine, the newspaper "Today".

As found by the journalists of the newspaper, in the throes of mass unrest Libya work as mercenaries former Ukrainian military pilots. In particular, the commander of the crew of the transport aircraft Il-76 from Kiev, Vladimir L., repeatedly visited "hot spots", held Afghanistan, told reporters: "Our pilots who resigned from the Ukrainian air force, can be found everywhere - in the Congo, Nigeria, Chad, anywhere... including I personally talked with our pilots who serve in Libya. The majority of them performs combat illegal work - they officially hired, for example, in firm on transportation of food and other peaceful goods. But in practice, mostly delivered weapons, ammunition, explosives... a record of such cases, naturally, no one leads, no official data. Therefore, in the foreign Ministry, defense Ministry, the security service will deny everything. But if in Ukraine there is no work, it is clear that it is full on other continents, and people who have not forgotten how to fly, in excess".

How can things evolve in Libya, the browser "Free press" talked to our experts.

The President of Academy of geopolitical problems, doctor of historical Sciences, Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov:

"SP": - on the eve of the Rasmussen firmly declared that NATO military intervention in what is happening in Libya is impossible. The day passed and he immediately collects the Council of the Alliance at an emergency meeting. It seems that just about the invasion in Brussels and will say. Don't you think?

- Of course, the theme of the Alliance is now discussing very actively. And, of course, can make a decision on armed intervention. Because NATO has appropriated the right to intervene in any country without the sanction of the UN security Council. As they did in Afghanistan, as in Iraq. Can't stop now.

"SP": - If we assume that the decision on Libya will be decided on whose side to intervene the Western allies?

- Not exactly on the side of Gaddafi. They have long fed the opposition to his regime. The French and the British.

"SP": - Why, if Gaddafi were regularly supplied them with oil?

- The West is always trying to prepare several scenarios in case of sudden changes in any region. No doubt they have prepared different options for Russia, if the position of the current fully triples their regime in Moscow will be shaken.

"SP": - If the NATO intervention in Libya will still be a fact, for what will be a battle?

- For the preservation of the status quo in matters of energy supply. To not allow Arab countries to create a unified anti-American front. Finally, it will be a struggle against China.

"SP": - But China is kind of far from these places.

- When talking about global economic and political interests, distances do not matter. China's growing economy is in need of oil. Attitude towards Beijing in the Arab world are very favorable, especially noticeable on the background of anti-American and anti-Israeli slogans in the streets of the strife-ridden countries. Besides, China today is able to maintain came to power in the region and the regimes with money and weapons. For them it is very important. But the West-it is useless.

"SP": - If NATO intervenes in events that they do not get stuck in the Libyan Sands as bogged down in Afghanistan?

- I don't think get stuck. As soon as the allies landed in this country, Gaddafi immediately run away. And with him will flee, and part of the elite. Another part immediately flop to the recent opponents of the leader. All calm down.

"SP": - What is the position in the event of such a development of events in North Africa will take Moscow?

- Some in Washington and tel Aviv say, such and is. We have been politically an independent country. The people's will is suppressed, this drive, like the Arabs, Russia is not observed. The elite is corrupt and tightly controlled from abroad. Many will not permit us, not only in Libya. Because that's not our game.


A different opinion.

Deputy Director of the Institute for political and military analysis Alexander Khramchikhin.

"SP": - do You believe that the military intervention of NATO in the Libyan case possible?

- It is possible, under certain circumstances, which is not. The Europeans will send their troops, if only in Libya will start absolute chaos and from there across the Mediterranean to them will flood flows of refugees. To date, it is not.

"SP": - And the oil? Termination of its transportation through pipelines to Italy could not serve as a trigger of armed conflict?

- Only oil – is unlikely. While in Europe there are other sources of raw materials, which are able to replace energy exports from Libya. Primary is still the problem of refugees. For Malta and Italy is unbearable. At the same time, of course, NATO will have to solve the problem of oil.

"SP": - But yet of a mass Exodus of Libyans from their country no.

- Why? The end result is. Only mostly not in Europe, and in Tunisia and Algeria. So I do not think that NATO will start tomorrow directly landing on amphibious ships.

"SP": - If we assume that the NATO intervention will begin, whether it will be limited only by the borders of Libya, or will apply to the whole of the rebellious North Africa?

- The whole North – definitely not. In Algeria, for example, to turn up they would not venture. There is a very strong army. We can assume that the Alliance will have to do in addition to Libya and even Tunisia. There do not understand the situation. And here there-that the refugees already torn Europe.

"SP": - That is the resolve of the Alliance depends on how in the near term turn the case in Libya. Your forecast on this?

- It's hard to say definitely. But very likely complete collapse of the country and the war of all against all by type, Somalia and Lebanon. But unlike Somalia, the fighting will be more violent, as weapons in Libya much more.

From the files of "SP". The armed forces of Libya.

The number of land forces, according to the magazine, World Defence Almanac, is 35,000 people, according to the Military Balance – 45.000 people, and the Middle East Military Balance says about 50,000 people. The whole country is divided into 11 border areas and four security zones. Information on the composition of the land forces also vary. According to one source is one of an elite team of security manual, 22 artillery battalions, 18 infantry, 10 tanks and 10 mechanized infantry battalions, 7 anti-aircraft artillery battalions, 6th parachute battalions, 4 missile brigade (BR-class "surface–to-surface"). Other sources report 11 11 armored and mechanized brigades, six missile brigades with tactical rockets brigade of the National guard, 48th separate mechanized battalions, 40 separate armored battalions, 12 airborne battalions, four battalions of Rangers and two artillery regiments.

The number of the air force, according to the logs World Defence Almanac and Middle East Military Balance is 18.000 people, and the Military Balance – 23.000 people. Major air bases are located in Benghazi, El Eden, Tripoli, Zawiat El-Baida. There are also smaller airbase, located in the cities of Ghat, Sebha, and Tobruk. The fleet includes fighters, fighter-bombers and reconnaissance Mirage F1 (12 aircraft), MiG-21 (16), MiG-23 (89), MiG-25 (54), su-20/22 (40).

Air defense forces are divided into five regions. It is composed of 5-6 teams, each with 18 SA SAM-2s; two or three brigades SAM SA-3s (12) and three brigade SAM system SA-6/8s (20-24). In addition, there are four teams SAM SA-5. More small formation include four anti-aircraft artillery air defense battalion, a company of electronic intelligence.

The naval force consists of 8,000 people (two submarines, three corvettes, 14 patrol boats), including units of the coast guard. Main naval bases are located in El KUMZ, Benghazi, Derna, Tobruk, and Tripoli, base of submarines in Time Hilal, a naval infantry battalion at Sidi Bilal.

In addition, Libya has a 40-strong group of militia, including the revolutionary guard (3,000) and the African Islamic Legion (2500 people).



Tags: USA , NATO , Libya , Africa

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