The overthrow of Gaddafi will have enormous consequences not only for Libya, but also Africa and the world. In the West, many "beat hands" watching "the agony of the regime" and expressing confidence that the most positive impact on the settlement of African conflicts, most of which de Colonel stimulated, supporting with money and arms "destructive forces".
But is it? And what will be the consequences of the coming to power of the rebels in Libya? To understand this, you must make a small digression into the history of Gaddafi's relations with other African leaders.
It should be recognized that the Colonel really had a direct relation to most African conflicts. Without the involvement of Gaddafi were bloody civil wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Of course, without the Colonel has not done and the civil war in the Congo, where there is a battle for tantalum, without which we cannot imagine modern electronic industry. The question is, who exactly was interested in fomenting these wars and conflicts and for what purpose.
In any case, thanks to the assistance of Gaddafi was just the idol of many African regimes. His attention to Africa was not random and was determined not only by the failure of his panarabism policy, according to some Western political scientists.
Recall that the struggle for Africa for Gaddafi began in the early 1970s, with the accession of Libya to the Organization of African Unity. There the Colonel unsuccessfully engaged in the dispensation of Israel and Western colonialism from the African continent.
Largely thanks to him was eliminated Portuguese colonial Empire. So, with his money acted anti-colonial rebels in Angola, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique. Colonel huge funds spent on the support of the struggle against apartheid in South Africa and in Namibia and Zimbabwe. Since that time, between him and the current President of South Africa Jacob Zuma has established fraternal relations.
A particularly close relationship was observed in Gaddafi with Ugandan leader IDI Amin. So close that during the war with Tanzania, Libyan army took an open part in the fighting, having lost in killed 600 people. Later, when IDI Amin still was removed from power, Gaddafi hid him in their territory.
In General, Gaddafi was supported by almost all participants of the "anti-colonial struggle", starting from the legendary Emperor-cannibal Jean-Bedel Bokassa of the Central African Republic to the Ethiopian dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam of. The last reason, because Ethiopia was a key in opposition to Western influence. In turn, she received from Gaddafi hundreds of millions of dollars of aid and were enjoying his protection in dealing with its neighbours, including Somalia.
Despite the failure of its policy towards the nearest neighbors, in the countries of Tropical Africa was different. A protégé of Gaddafi, Charles Taylor won the 1997 civil war largely due to Libyan assistance.
After the collapse of the Soviet Colonel changed his tactics on the continent, formally refused to support the rebels. However, according to sources in Western special services, it is still not completely abandoned the old stuff.
In recent years Gaddafi has focused on the attempts of political unification of Africa and has actively promoted the creation on the model of the EU the African Union. And then, finally, on 9 August 1999 at the meeting of heads of the Organization of African Unity, announced the establishment of the African Union (AU).
It is symbolic that it happened on Libyan territory. Since that time, Gaddafi was quite active in trying to bring together the divergent positions of leadership of African countries. All this caused anxiety not only in the West but also in countries such as India and China, which, using the political and economic weakness of the States of the Black continent, continued to subordinate them to its influence and to use their raw material wealth to their advantage.
From the beginning it was Libya played in the as the most important role. Along with other major African countries, she has shaped the organization's budget and even paid the fees at the expense of the poorest countries. In addition, the influence of the Colonel was also extended to many ordinary Africans who are grateful to Gaddafi for what he has given them into our country to work and thus saved from hunger and poverty.
For the past three years, the creation of a "United States of Africa" was an obsession with Gaddafi. Suffice it to say that it can often be seen deposited on the card clothing of the Black continent.
Seeing the difficulties of the Arab dialogue countries of the North with all the other States, he planned to solve this problem by mixing of Arabs and Negroes. Known these are his words: "I recommend to Libyan men married only black women and to Libyan women to marry black men."
In recent years, the influence of Libya in Africa grew stronger. Thanks to its growing authority, in 2008 he was rewarded with being proclaimed by most African leaders and tribal chiefs as "King of kings of Africa".
And in 2009, when he was elected Chairman of the African Union, Gaddafi announced his intention to seek the practical implementation of the ideas of the United States of Africa to life. In the first place, he proposed to create "a single African military force, single currency and a single passport, allowing Africans to move freely around the continent".
It is clear that in the foreseeable future, this idea could not be implemented. Too many pocket of interest was most of the African leaders and too much they are bound with the West, which supported their power in exchange for cheap and available resources.
However, in the future it was a real threat to the big powers. However, in the case of such ideas in practice, this would cause enormous damage to the interests of other countries, considering Africa only as an inexhaustible resource base. Gaddafi himself had dreamed of that dark continent with its vast resources, including human, will be able not only to solve their current problems, but to become a worthy competitor to the mighty of this world.
Is it any wonder that the African Union continues to refuse to recognize the rebel Libyan legitimate authorities? Recall that this decision was made by the organization at its emergency summit on 27 August, held in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa.
According to the Chairman of the African Union, South Africa's President Jacob Zuma, the forces of the PNS is still not established complete control even over Tripoli and that the fight for Libya continues.
Thus, with the exception of a number of North African States (Egypt, Chad, Burkina Faso, etc.) most African countries have not succumbed to pressure from the EU and the US and refused to speak out against Gaddafi.
Some of them had a Colonel is much more explicit support. The main role his defenders played Algeria, who was not alone in its policy towards the Libyan events. And now this country is increasingly drawn into the conflict. She is forced to send an army to the border areas of Libya to disarm gangs of extremists threatening her and Berber separatists.
However, the Libyan problem had a bad effect on the entire African continent. Suffice it to say that the government of Zimbabwe has expelled Libya's Ambassador after he hung on the building of the Embassy of the rebel flag on the grounds that he is not the legitimate government of Libya and has no right to be in the building of the Libyan Embassy.
As you know, the leader of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, until recently, was one of the most famous friends of Muammar Gaddafi. Recall that the first also since 2008 is in a tense relationship with the West, not least due to the violation of the interests of Western commodity campaigns and the active development of relations with China.
Thus, the problems associated with events in Libya, the West has not disappeared. Throughout the operation to overthrow Qaddafi, the African Union assisted the Colonel closed with little support. Suffice it to recall his "road map", which clearly stated that the leader of the Jamahiriya is the legitimate, from the point of view of the speaker, the power. And it is important that he failed to provide even now, when Gaddafi is clearly not going brilliantly.
However, the behavior of Chad, Burkina Faso and some other causes of the sensation that to speak of complete unity of the AU in relation to Libya. Sooner or later, the least developed countries in Africa, having received "help" from the West, recognize the rebels. However, the behavior of individual States does not solve the problem in General.
And it's not even that the country "bigger and parazitii" like South Africa will continue to behave in force former friendly relations with Gaddafi defiantly. Of course, two main points contributing to the reluctance of African leaders to recognize the rebels ' sense of gratitude towards the Colonel, who had no trouble when visiting a country to give her tens of millions of dollars, but fear to share his fate.
The fact is that democratic regimes in Africa are almost none, and if there is, then "African democracy" still implies in most cases the rule of an authoritarian leader based on related tribes and groups, and oppress those who are not one of them.
The overthrow of Gaddafi will give rise to a whole series of problems in those parts of Africa where he is if not managed the situation, were a major influence. Take, for example, Sudan, where Gaddafi is trying to bring the situation in the country under their control, relied on one or the other forces. Now the fear is growing that in the event of its fall the situation in Darfur more difficult and al-Bashir will get the cards to increase the pressure on the rebels, whose leadership was services official Tripoli. And that would complicate prospects of the West to action in the Sudan and the Sudanese involved in the events in Chad. And regular attempts by rebels to seize power in the past largely failed almost solely due to aid Gaddafi.
No wonder many in the Arab world accused him of that in the fight against Sudanese President al-Bashir allegedly he even in 2011 supported the "Christian groups from the South and West of the country." Moreover, some of the Sudanese parties were on the full content of Libya.
Chad was considered Gaddafi as a zone of strategic interests in Libya, including because the borders between these countries were carried out conventionally, and the tip was combined with old tribal ties.
It is no coincidence that a certain portion of power in Chad has always had the support of Libya in order to obtain conductors of its influence like Goukouni Waddey offering even in 1979 to unite the two countries.
Attention to Chad was largely driven by the desire to seize the Northern parts of the country, rich in uranium. However, in the mid-1980s, these attempts failed. Not the last role in this failure was played by the West, who feared the emergence of Qaddafi's nuclear weapons. Despite this, the Colonel has not lost its influence on many prominent Chadian tribes still.
Traditionally strong was the influence of Gaddafi and in other troubled African country — the Central African Republic. For example, in 2001, Libyan paratroopers made the overthrow of the then President ange-félix Patassé.
Not the best way affect the fall of Gaddafi and the horn of Africa. Take the role which Gaddafi played in the peace settlement in Somalia. It allocated funds to support moderate forces who fought against Islamic radicals.
In the event of his fall aggravated and Tuareg question. This problem is particularly acute in Mali and Niger. And Gaddafi, who had traditionally high influence on Tuareg chiefs, played in the peace process and perhaps the first role. Take, for example, that after a personal meeting with Gaddafi, the leaders of the Niger and Malian Tuareg Aghali AG, Lambo and Ibrahim AG Bahanga in 2008, announced the suspension of the armed struggle. And in terms of establishing peaceful dialogue in these countries the efforts of Gaddafi were much more successful than the attempts of the West and the UN.
And thanks to the efforts of Gaddafi in the last 10 years managed to get kidnapped by a local North African radicals of tourists from Western countries.
Based on the foregoing, the overthrow of authoritative representatives of many rebel movements of Colonel can completely change the balance of political forces in Africa and will inevitably affect the African Union. In the case of the overthrow of Gaddafi, the idea of "African the United States" will be hit hard. Of course, it is hardly necessary to consider the most pessimistic predictions, like the possible collapse of the organization. But the fact that the lives of so many African regimes would become much more difficult, that's for sure. And this can provoke additional pain points in the Black continent.
Demonstrative refusal to engage in dialogue with puppets of the West could have far-reaching consequences for the African themselves "refuseniks". In this regard, many warnings to those who may grant asylum to Gaddafi.
However, it is doubtful that such changes will affect the interests of the West. But the additional impulse will be given to radical forces like Somali "al-Shababa", a dialogue with which will be much more difficult than with Gaddafi.
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