Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / Great Arab Revolution / Articles
Post-revolution middle East: more of Islam and radicalism
Material posted: Publication date: 21-02-2011

Middle East countries covered by the revolutionary mood. Inspired by the resignation of Hosni Mubarak, residents of Libya, Bahrain and Yemen out in rallies, organizing themselves through social networks. President of the Institute for Israel studies and Middle East studies Evgeny Satanovsky told RBC about the Arab attempts to change the modes on the bottom.

"It is difficult to predict where it will once again explode. Tunisia was the most stable country in North Africa. Egypt on the background of their neighbors, Sudan and other countries in the region was more than stable, and was hit with insane speed" - considers E. Satanovsky.

The reason of discontent of the Yemeni residents similar to the one that filled the square in Tunisia and Egypt: "President Ali Abdullah Saleh has ruled the country since 1978, since 1990, he ruled a United Yemen. His attempt to bring his son into power was met with hostility. Obviously, Yemen will be split. Southern Yemen is predominantly Shi'ite, North – Sunni. They were never in a single country: the southern elite didn't get anything, and the attempted coup in 1994. finally done with this term. Yemen was almost doomed to the revolutionary movement".

Differences in Bahrain have a religious root. "The absolute majority of Bahrain's population are Shiites, while Sunni dynasty for two hundred years. And Iran considers Bahrain a province of the fourteenth, the fourteenth stop of the Islamic Republic. And in this situation one would expect of the presentations, as were the events in Tunisia and Egypt. Local people saw that, it turns out, it is possible to displace the regime, and also went out into the streets. Moreover, the regime in Bahrain is the most democratic, one of the most democratic in the Gulf. Women's rights, the Parliament, the rights of religious minorities," said E. Satanovsky.

In Libya the situation unfolded in an unexpected way, the regime of Muammar Gaddafi seemed very durable. However, despite the fact that Libya is one of the most serious oil economies in the world, it was found that there 30% of the unemployed.

"The mad voluntarism of Gaddafi with his multi-billion dollar projects that died as quickly as it is born, with its military adventures in Chad and Sudan with his, eventually, hard drugs. Again he attempted to hold little able children behind them in power. He manages all the money, all in the country, while not being a nobody, not occupying any posts – he is the "leader of the revolution", he answers to no one for their actions, it cannot change.

When it was revealed that he has too many poor people, the Libyans thought, how can you stand it? It turned out that patience was over. And so after he tried a lot of blood to crush the rebellion and hit him in the hands of Libyan mercenaries Africa mercenaries, Tunisian mercenaries, it will not forgive," - said the orientalist.

Speaking about the future, is not optimistic: "the Arab world, the middle East, of course, will be different. There will be more Islam, more radicalism".

E. Satanovsky believes that at any moment may explode any region - from Pakistan to Morocco, from North Africa to the border.

An example of events that may lead to revolution, E. Satanovsky advised to go to the history: "once there was a Russian Empire. In 1917 the revolution began, and tank in Europe came to shoot only in 1945 And then in the 1990s that broke up Yugoslavia and our country fell apart".



Tags: Iran , crisis , Libya , threat , Africa

RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics