Tuesday, November 19, in the southern part of Beirut, between the districts of bir Hasan and Jana, where are the Iranian Embassy and the complex of buildings belonging to the group Hezbollah, has thundered two explosions, which killed 23 and injured 146 people. Among the dead an employee of the Iranian Embassy.
Cause and suspected perpetrators of terrorist attacks
Responsibility for the blasts took over the terrorist group "brigades of Abdullah Azzam". The leader of the group said that in this way the group wishes to draw attention to the problem of the release of their members from the "prisons of the Lebanese regime" and force the Movement to withdraw fighters from Syria. Iran has accused Israel and the Lebanese Shiite organization Hezbollah and Saudi Arabia.
According to the London edition of "Elaph", a terrorist group "brigades of Abdullah Azzam" is an organization [i] created by Iran. It is reported that in 2011, the Lebanese security forces have detained the group's leader, Siraj al-DIN Sericata, which was then released on call "political top". The Lebanese newspaper "Al-Jumhuria" considers that the Iranian group created and supervised by the Saudi intelligence services [ii].
"Diplomatic circles" involved in the Syrian issue, consider the statement of grouping "brigades of Abdullah Azzam's" "ridiculous," according to the canadian edition of "Middle East Panorama" with reference to anti-Syrian Lebanese newspaper "Al-Jumhurie" [iii]. The same circles believe that the decision to attack on this scale could only accept regional and global powers, but not fighters, considering the role of Iran in the Syrian issue, as well as negotiations on Iran's nuclear program in Geneva.
According to Lebanese publication the preliminary results of the investigation "very soon" led to the conclusion that the attack is connected with the policy of the Syrian government and its allies. The charges were immediately sent to Saudi Arabia. It also became clear that the Lebanese authorities are losing control over the situation and its actors, the newspaper writes. Whoever had done or planned the attack, it resulted in the transformation of the internal problems in Lebanon of the Syrian crisis. Moreover, the involvement of Lebanon in the Syrian process occurs not only at the level of governments, but of individual actors in political life.
The article "the Rivalry between Qatar and Saudi Arabia for the favor of the Zionists" "Middle East Panorama" writes that the explosions coincided with progress in the negotiations over Iran's nuclear program led by the United States, and the modus operandi is reminiscent of the attack against Rafik Hariri. The publication accuses the Saudi authorities and "the Zionists" and recalls the words of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel and some Gulf countries speak the same language when it comes to Iran's nuclear program [iv]. The Union of Saudi Arabia and Israel have risen to a new step, which does not approve of Qatar, who himself was considered the first ally of the Zionists before the coup in Qatar. Qatar is in conflict with Saudi Arabia is also on the political situation in Egypt. On the other hand, the Syrian government army successfully put on its military tasks, which can not disturb the Saudis, who lapsed into a state of "unprecedented hysteria".
Referring to the Kuwaiti edition of the Lebanese "Al-Jumhuria" in the article "al-Qaeda uses Lebanon as it was used by Syria ... Hezbola" writes that al-Qaeda is present in Lebanon for several years, but the fact of the presence it was difficult to confirm [v]. The publication notes that on the connection grouping "Brigades of Abdullah Azzam" al-Qaeda no one was known previously, as current conditions did not allow the group to operate in Lebanon. Since Lebanon is in the midst of Syrian war, each party to the conflict seeks to establish a presence in Lebanon. Al-Qaeda is an old joint project of special services of the USA together with Israel and Saudi Arabia and with the truth I bet only the ignorant, writes the Palestinian newspaper "Al-Manar" [vi].
Official website of Lebanese anti-Syrian opposition coalition "14 March" believes that the cause of the attacks has been Hezbolla involvement in the Syrian war and asks – will Hezbollah from Syria after the bombings at the Embassy and warned that Beirut would become the second Baghdad [vii]. In another message cited the words of the anti-Syrian-minded Islamists and the founder of the Salafist movement in Lebanon. First refuse to call the attack "martyred", while the Lebanese Salafi leader says the terrorist attack as a form of "Jihad", while condemning the killing of innocent people. The bombings of the Iranian Embassy is a continuation of the fighting in Kalmunai, the publication says "the Syrian opposition" "Orient-News" [viii].
Rosiiskoi the Palestinian newspaper "Al-Manar" blames the terrorist attacks Saudi Arabia and Israel, who suffer defeat in the Syrian issue. [ix] Terrorist acts were committed after he held a secret meeting between Bandar Bin Sultan and Benjamin Netanyahu in the Israeli city of Eilat and several meetings between Saudi and Israeli officials, writes "Al-Manar".
The blasts were a message addressed to the Zionists who are trying to protect Israel from the Jihad by transferring it to Syria, the newspaper writes in another article [x]. As acknowledgement it reminds that Israel's "jihadists" from the monarchies of the Persian Gulf nothing like that has been taken. Reported contacts and "declared and, most importantly, unannounced agreements" between the intelligence services of Syria and some EU countries that refuse to support terrorism in Syria.
As further alleged, assessment and calculations of the parties would be not regional, but international, and it is not surprising that Syria today forms the features of the new world order. The main incentive for European countries used fear of the recurrence of terrorist acts on its territory repatriated from Syria militants.
Noteworthy is the opinion that the Syrian government army has moved from defense to the offensive, which introduced terrorist groups and FSA in a state of hysteria. The explosions were the direct or indirect result of the visit of Lebanese President Michel Sleiman to Saudi Arabia and a direct response to the bold speech of the leader of Hezbola [xi]. Overall, the publication describes the incident as a response of agonizing enemies of Syria. About the successes of the Syrian army have also been writing non-regional Arab newspaper, for example, the French "Arabi-Press"xii. In another article "Al-Manar" explosions are described as message, primarily Iran, as they were committed in their territory the diplomatic Messiah. In the statement of the leader of terrorist grouping "brigades of Abdullah Azzam calls for" Shiite-Sunni conflict, and death are called "heroes from the Sunni community of Lebanon."
The likely consequences of terrorist attacks
"Al-Manar" warns – effects of the attack will be dangerous [xiv]. Attack "not surprising", given the involvement of Iran in the Syrian war. Action Hezbola and Iran in Syria is no different from what is doing al-Qaeda. What is happening in Syria threatens to spill over not only Lebanon, but neighboring countries. Further, the publication writes about the necessity of finding ways to halt the participation of Iran and Hezbola in the Syrian war, at the same time urged to reject the "false diplomatic statement" about the need for Iran's participation in "Geneva-2" and the positive role of Iran [xv].
Will the second Beirut Baghdad asked London edition "Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat" that looks more like a statement. The publication warns that multinational and multi-confessional Beirut "will become tomorrow's military posts and barracks, and the rest of the city of Lebanon will also be gripped by fear". The publication makes an important warning – the conflict tends to escalate and expand, becoming multi-dimensional, and when this political conflict under the guise Shiite-Sunni confrontation and the conflict between the Syrians, Hezbollah and opponents of the Syrian regime, and a regional conflict involving Iran.
Many would agree that the only solution is a neutral position of Lebanon in the Syrian war. Unfortunately, the international community is not able to show determination in the Syrian issue [xvi]. Interesting one of the headings of the edition: "the Bombings in Beirut make a policy of distancing in the useless slogan". [xvii] It comes proclaimed by the Lebanese leadership to a policy of non-intervention in the Syrian war.
How and where will Iran respond to explosions – that's the big question, writes the Lebanese newspaper "Al-Jumhuria" referring to the Kuwaiti source, which puts forward three assumptions:
- in Lebanon, a similar explosion, which is unlikely;
- on the territory of Syria through the fighting, especially in Kalmunai and the suburbs of Damascus;
- and at the international level in the new anti-terrorist coalition to strengthen the role and position of Iran.
Thus, the explosions in Beirut give Iran the opportunity to appear as victims of terror [xviii].
Citing "an informed source" on the official website of the Lebanese anti-Syrian opposition party "Lebanese forces" refers to the establishment of a new global coalition on bezopasnosti. The publication notes that the statements by some prominent Lebanese officials and political figures voiced about the explosions, not mentioned the site of the explosions - the Iranian Embassy in Beirut. Indicates that the Saudi side also avoid mentioning the Iranian Embassy.
Terrorist group "Islamic state of Iraq and the Levant" spread the message with threats against the Shia of Lebanon and the Sunnis, who is related to the Movement. This writes the Lebanese newspaper "Al-Jaride". They say about the intention of terrorist groups to defer military action in Syria on the Lebanese Shamlugh.
Brief review of Arab media allows you to isolate the possible stakeholders and purpose, and possible consequences of terrorist attacks.
The initiators of the attack: Israel, Saudi Arabia; Syria and its allies; terrorist group "brigades of Abdullah Azzam".
The goal of the attack: a message to Iran and the Movement; revenge for the successes of the Syrian army; the creation of a new global coalition on security issues; Iran's desire to appear as a victim of terror.
The consequences of a terrorist attack: the care Hezbolla from Syria; the response of Iran; the spread of the Syrian war on Lebanon; departure from the policy of distancing the Lebanese authorities in the Syrian war.
The arguments about the Iranian interest, given by the enemies of Iran and Hezbola, not supported by the facts, while Syrian forces provide strong evidence that the attacks need anti-Syrian coalition, who suffers a serious defeat and in need of additional ways to put pressure on Syria and its allies. Predictions of anti-Iranian side on possible retaliation by Iran in the form of care Hezbola with Syria or termination of the policy of distancing Lebanon speak more in favour of not hiding the interest of the anti-Syrian centers of power in the implementation of those scenarios.
i "Elaph", November 20, 2013, November 21, 2013 <http://www.elaph.com/Web/news/2013/11/850157.html?entry=Lebanon>
ii "Al-Jumhuria", November 19, 2013, November 21, 2013 <http://www.aljoumhouria.com/news/index/104608>
iii "Middle East Panorama", November 21, 2013, November 21, 2013 <http://www.mepanorama.com/378197/الغضب-الأميركي-أكبر-Mecca-الإيراني-؟/>
iv "Middle East Panorama", November 21, 2013, November 20, 2013 <http://www.mepanorama.com/378042/صراع-قطري-سعودي-لكسب-ودّ-الصهاينة/>
v "Al-Jumhuria", November 21, 2013, November 21, 2013 <http://www.aljoumhouria.com/news/index/104996>
vi "Al-Manar", November 20, 2013, November 21, 2013 <http://www.manar.com/page-12802-ar.html>
vii "14 Azar", November 20, 2013, November 21, 2013 <http://www.14march.org/news-details.php?nid=NTEyNjQ3>
viii "Orinet-News", November 20, 2013, November 21, 2013 <http://www.orient-news.net/?page=news_show&id=6297>
ix "Al-Manar", November 20, 2013, November 21, 2013,<http://www.manar.com/page-12825-ar.html>
x "Al-Manar", November 20, 2013, November 21, 2013 <http://www.manar.com/page-12802-ar.html>
xi canadian edition of "MiddleEastPanorama" recently published an article titled "the Region is on the threshold of great change", where the role of Hezbola is assessed as "regional player", also reports on joint actions of Iran, Russia and the USA in the region, where Israel and Saudi Arabia out of the market. "Middle East Panorama", November 18, 2013, November 21, 2013 <http://www.mepanorama.com/376976/المنطقـة-مقبلـة-على-تحـولات-كبــرى/>
xii "Arabi-Press", November 20, 2013, November 21, 2013 <http://www.arabi-press.com/article.php?id=843004>
xiii "Al-Manar", November 20, 2013, November 21, 2013 <http://www.manar.com/page-12830-ar.html>
xiv "Al-Manar", November 20, 2013, November 21, 2013,<http://www.manar.com/page-12825-ar.html>
xv"Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat", November 20, 2013, November 20, 2013, <http://www.aawsat.com/leader.asp?section=3&article=750821&issueno=12776#.Uo0DA9JFCi4>
xvi "Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat", November 20, 2013, November 20, 2013, <http://www.aawsat.com/leader.asp?section=3&article=750811&issueno=12776#.Uo0CSNJFCi4>
xvii "Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat", November 20, 2013, November 20, 2013 <http://www.aawsat.com/details.asp?section=4&article=750839&issueno=12776#.Uo0DU9JFCi4>
xviii "Al-Jumhuria", November 21, 2013, November 21, 2013 <http://www.aljoumhouria.com/news/index/104983>
xix"Al-Qwwat Al-Lubnanie", November 21, 2013, November 21, 2013, <http://www.lebanese-forces.com/2013/11/21/global-security-alliance/>
xx "Jaride", November 20, 2013, November 21, 2013 <http://www.jaride.com/13731/%D9%82%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D9%8A%D8%B1->
Armine Hakobyan, eXpert on the Middle East, orientalist-Arabist
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