The begun repartition of the African continent and the chain revolution in the Arab-Islamic world in its importance comparable only with the collapse of the USSR and "sisitemu" – no wonder the American President compared these events "with the fall of the Berlin wall". Of course, that the revolutionary process has generated a lot of questions that tries to answer the analytical community.
These events are covered from different points of view. Observers as reasons point to the global economic crisis and rising prices for food products in the Chicago food futures exchange in the autumn of 2010. soared to 74%, leading to price inflation for food. This had an impact in Tunisia (GDP per capita – $3.0 million) and especially in the more impoverished Egypt ($1.2 million), where the inflation rate on food was 30%, whereas the population (50% of which lives below poverty and the average monthly salary equal to 50 Euro) 30% of their income spends on food only. About relatively rich Libya (GDP per capita – $6.0 million) to note the discord and contradictions between the tribes (about thirty). The number of some of them reaches a million, besides Gaddafi of hostile tribes live in the East, in the energy-rich areas of the country, and in this context, observers draw analogies with Iraq. In fact, these circumstances helped to fuel the civil war. In Bahrain in the prosperous among them, financially the country strained relations between religious groups, Shiites and Sunnis, which is also fraught with long-term civil strife. Many analysts, mostly in the context of Israel's security, are worried about the activity released from polupodvale Islamists in the face, for example, the "Muslim brotherhood".
Common to the societies of the countries of the region is the fatigue from the long Board of the same national leaders (a phenomenon called "Soviet people" as the "Brezhnev syndrome"), permanent repression, growth of corruption and other social ills. And there are demographic problems։ in General, the region is rapidly growing city and urban population, and in the Arab world was, as they say, "too many competent but unemployed youth". It is therefore not surprising that the index of "revolutionary potential" (revolting-index)1 from 16 countries in the upper part of table 5 are the Arab countries 4 – the countries of "black Africa" (it is curious that Armenia's neighboring Azerbaijan is in the list, the 10th place).
These objective internal circumstances imposed by external factors – "democratising" the calls from the US and the EU, the launch of well-known technologies in the Commission of color revolutions, this time focusing on "Friday prayers". Play a key role within the organization of the "6 April Movement" with the slogan "kifaya" – "enough" (think "Kmara" in Georgia), his post of duty is the U.S. national endowment for democracy and etc.. of Course, that the events didn't remain indifferent and the contenders for leadership in the Islamic world – Iran and Turkey.
Media everywhere noted that in the revolutionary movement there is such an effective tool settecentesca information warfare, as a social network (Facebook, Twitter , etc.), numerous blogs2. For example, in June 2010. Manager of middle East branch Google Wael Ghonim antinobelevskoy opened a page on Facebook, coming up to half a million visitors a day3. Its specific role – particularly in Tunisia – played and "leaks" of WikiLeaks. An important factor was, of course, and "al Jazeera", the stories which resonated with the "Arab street". Note, however, that al Jazeera's only passed information, while the Internet also served as a means of organizing and guiding role.
Is typical, but the emergence of powerful social tsunami waves remained outside the field of view of the global analytical community – virtually nobody was talking about the possibility. However, lately that happens a lot. In this regard, experts note another interesting detail related to WikiLeaks. December 2010. was marked by this project – it was difficult to find even one media outlet to stay away from discussing rumors. Did it and intelligence services, looking in gigabytes of information verbal combinations which the American diplomats spoke about the leaders of a country. But the resources even of such services is not unlimited – here to identify the really significant events in the Arab world and a force is not enough. Analysts were concerned about digging up dirt on American diplomacy, forgetting everything else in the world.
But external pressure is not limited to the information war. Off the coast of Libya appeared the U.S. Navy, and British special forces in insurgent areas of the country. Saudi Arabia to support the Sunni regime in Bahrain, where unrest tend to see the "hand of Tehran", shows the capabilities of their armored forces. Iran itself for many decades, decided to send a naval grouping in the Mediterranean sea. At this stage, it is possible, all operations are performed in the spirit of the principle of "the threat stronger than the execution", but few people dare to guarantee that these actions do not escalate into military operations.
The inevitable transformation.
These internal and external factors that have commonalities and differences, in the end led to the fall of regimes in Tunisia and Egypt. Those countries that resist will most likely be to some extent transformed (volunteer force, economic sanctions or through military intervention from outside, as shown by the development of Libya) in the foreseeable future. At this stage the leadership of Algeria revoked 1992. a state of emergency, the presidents of Sudan and Yemen declared that will not stand at the next election, Jordan has sent in the resignation of the Prime Minister, the Syrian President promised reform (not specifying, however, their content), Libya has canceled a number of taxes, Moroccan king Mohammed VI intends to undertake a major "constitutional reform", some rulers "buy off from the people" and generous financial investments (Kuwait and Saudi Arabia).
The above-mentioned circumstances, of course, are objective and generally provide a more or less General idea about what is happening. Yet modern revolutionary processes are the phenomena more complex and layered than is sometimes perceived. Therefore suggested both hot on the trail of fact, and conspiracy (but no less real) version of these events unfold, as they say lawyers, "the truth, but not the whole truth", and this is following the same "legal" terminology – may be a lie.
For example, there is no doubt that in all events there are more than a significant proportion of the "material" aspects – there is a struggle for resources between the leading countries. This struggle in something is a clone known to us "cold war", but, in contrast, proceeds by the formula "all against all". Some experts believe that such a conflict is, to some, not very distant moment – the so-called "d-day and h-hour" – can be transformed into the classic "hot" war for survival is trivial.
However, we believe that the "moment of truth" will be identified (if identified at all) only when they are "decoded" geopolitical and geo-economic contexts of the process, given the social, demographic concepts that now dominate the global governance level.
Below we will present our vision of what is happening in terms of the design of the next "new world order" scenarios related to the global controllability (or uncontrollability).
"We ours, we construct a new world".
It is a common myth that the "Yalta-Potsdam" the world is nearing the end of its days, the collapse of the USSR in 1991. Meanwhile, after the collapse of sisitemu the fight against "remnants" of the old world did not cease. Such a "relic", for example was Yugoslavia: bombing the country in 1999 on the map, a few small, not quite self-sufficient, but it is in harmony with the new realities of the States.
In Africa and the middle East were also a lot of countries that were to some extent a product of the old world order. In this region in the second half of the twentieth century was a time of upheaval, in which old-style rulers changed the young reformers – future presidents, leaders of the revolution and even kings. The new leaders inherited good material base (oil, gas, control over important transportation routes), and, regardless of the external state of Affairs, they to the Eastern way has created sustainable modes. However, these modes – because of the possession of greater resources, but also due to its specificity – is not always fully obeyed the rules of the "great game" waged by (at the time) "tips" on the ideological-geopolitical, and the Anglo-Saxons (constantly) and Chinese (recently) mainly by geo-economic motivations. Today, the combination of these two factors – the possession of resources and lack of control – has made these modes are practically doomed.
Work began in 1991, however, the final phase of the military operation in Iraq – "the Sword of the desert", for various reasons, remained unfinished, and it was brought to a logical end only in 2003. Thus, the region (previously known as the Large, and today, writes William Engdahl4, known "...under a less threatening name – New Middle East..."), especially taking into account the Afghan factor, has been thoroughly shattered. The next stage of the elimination of "old order" matured in our days. In the turbulent period of the formation of multipolar (or, in the diagnosis of some experts, besplatnogo) world additional the actualization of the problem gave activity on the African continent "flushed in the East" of China, as well as the growing ambitions of the BRIC (which became the BRICS after the chargeability to the ranks of the Republic of South Africa).
However, it is well known that the political implementation of mega-projects does not always produce the results initially expected their compilers. In particular, it concerns the problem of "handling" the post-revolutionary Arab world, development trends is far from straightforward. In this context, it is useful to see dominant in the expert community concepts regarding the problem of global governance.
Scenarios of global governance.
At the end of 2010. prepared was published in the beginning of the same year, the report "Global governance 2025: a critical situation"5. In this project, in addition to the main organizers – National intelligence Council USA (NIC) and the Institute for the study of the security of the EU (EUISS), was attended by authoritative experts from Russia, China, India and other countries6. As the original thesis was adopted that the system of global governance (referring to the totality of governmental, international and non-state institutions, multinational companies and even network structures) in the form in which it was created after the Second world war, at one time was effective, but cannot cope with complex problems of the 21st century. Experts believe that this situation is due to the fact that "the rapid pace of globalization" is much increased risks of ethnic conflict and terrorism, infectious diseases, and new kinds of threats: climate change, energy shortages, food and water resources, migration flows and even new technologies (especially in biotechnology, because the development of this sector contains many risks, namely, ethical). The authors of the document offered four scenarios that could develop in the next 15 years:
- "To stay afloat".
- "The Return Of The "European Concert""7.
- "The reality of the game: the conflict surpassed cooperation".
The script "to Stay afloat" can be called moderately optimistic. Experts believe that, despite the growing risks and the relatively slow improvement of international governance system, this system in the coming years is still able to cope with the situation. Moreover, in their opinion, such a scenario is most likely. However, project participants are inclined to believe that in the longer term, the institutions of governance in its current form is not viable and will not be able to "stay afloat".
The second scenario ("Fragmentation") is moderately pessimistic. Under this option, the world is witnessing a fragmentation of regions: Asia builds its order, as if Europe withdraws into himself and seeks to address the problems associated with falling living standards of the population. United States, with the growth of the workforce may be in relatively better position, unless, of course, overcome the known problems of budgetary deficit and debts. In these conditions, thanks to new communication technologies, globalization (the term the experts give an entirely positive sense) continues, but much more moderately.
The third scenario ("the Return of the "European Concert" of the") most high. In this scenario, despite the environmental risks and conflict situations, international cooperation in addressing global problems in General, is developing very well. This contributes to the fact that the United States with other countries, as well as China and India have made joint efforts. In turn, the EU is beginning to fulfil a more global role than previously. Choose the project experts believe that this scenario is less likely than the first two, and should therefore rather be seen as a goal towards which to aim. Note also that in the analytical community, an opinion prevails that an increase of the global status of Europe is possible only if the formation is close in the spirit of civilizational and economic interests of the political space in Eurasia8. Therefore, it is possible that the emergence of such a scenario is a kind of curtsy on the part of project participants to the host party – to its European counterparts.
The most pessimistic is the fourth scenario ("Reality game: conflict surpassed cooperation"). Relations between China and the USA escalates, growing economic competition between members of the BRICS. Collapse of hopes for a better life for the middle class in Europe, which exacerbated in the social sphere. In the middle East is a nuclear arms race. The atmosphere of suspicion and tension, making it impossible, particularly in Asia, further reforms of global institutions of governance.
But back to the middle East and try to compare the scenario of global governance possible in this region variants developments.
After the "Uderzenia afloat" – "Fragmentation", and then "the Conflict will surpass cooperation"? Even from a cursory analysis of what is happening in the Arab world, it follows that the interest of external forces, in particular, is to make the region more manageable: indeed, the increased control means not only the expansion of spheres of influence, but also implies preferential access to the resource base. As a first approximation we can assume that in original nature the logic of events in the region are subject to the scenario "to Stay afloat". Because with high probability we can assume that in the fall and transformation of authoritarian regimes will happen (it already largely is) a certain deindividualization of the Arab countries. Current trends indicate that in these countries almost inevitably will be entered common to all constitutional and democratic attributes. In the end, the Arab world, with all its internal contradictions and problems will become more homogeneous, than to the revolutionary movement, regardless of what it is over. But along with this, in the region back a very important civilization and the religious element in Islam, i.e. there will be a certain desecularization the region. Probably, you should also agree with those analysts who believe that at least at first, Islamist movements are type of the "Muslim brotherhood" (by the way, is not listed in the us register of terrorist organizations) will take rather moderate position.
There is every reason to assume that the process of the return of political Islam in the region will be largely similar to what happened in Turkey, where the fundamentalists led by Erbakan came moderate Islamists of the party "Justice and development" of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It is also known that the technology of "moderate Islam" is largely based on project RAND "the Formation of a moderate Islamic networks" (Building Moderate Muslim Networks)9. Remember also that the NIC report "Global trends 2025: transformed world", it is predicted that the role of al-Qaeda over time will be dramatically reduced10. This model of political Islam, unlike fundamentalism, more predictable and controllable, and therefore is more acceptable to the outside world. By the way, the Arab world such sample may be closer to the same Turkey (and in a certain sense – and Iran, which will lose its exclusivity as the only "true Islamic state")11than it is now.
However, it seems that according to the scenario "to Stay afloat" in the region may not last very long. For example, if you continue the analogy with Turkey, "moderate Islam" in its evolution can drift toward radicalism, which will create problems not only with neighbors (Israel), but also with Europe in General.
Meanwhile, committed to the fight against "multikulturalnosti" the EU is today fenced off even from the "moderate Islamic" Turkey (which is often reflected in diplomatic scandals). This means that there is every reason to assume that similar relationships will be established between the EU and the Arab countries, if there is a dominate ideology of political Islam. It is known that this problem has been actualized in connection with numerous refugees from the African continent, and it is unlikely that this process will soon subside, because the company pay dearly for the revolution and a long time recovering from the disorganization of management and the collapse of the economy.
Thus, internal convergence and Islamization of the Arab countries will be accompanied by civilizational and ideological division of Europe, which in turn can strengthen the tendencies of formation of world order described in the scenario "Fragmentation". Meanwhile, the "New middle East" from Morocco to Pakistan – is not all relatively "isolated" from the rest of the world Asia, which was discussed in the report of NIC and ISS: the region is also a "fragment" in this part of the world.
Some analysts suggest that a "New middle East" will soon become a sort of "buffer zone" between China and the Western world. Meanwhile, the buffer zone often become an arena of acute confrontation. So it's possible that "Fragmentation" may soon transform into another state, subordinate to the logic of the most pessimistic scenario – "Reality game: conflict surpassed cooperation".
In the study of the influence of the "Muslim factor" to US national security the RAND Corporation back in 2003. in one study,12 it was noted that the sharp aggravation of the situation in the Muslim world, contributed to the growth of anti-American sentiment and led to increasing threats to the national interests of the United States throughout the world, primarily associated with American foreign policy after September 11, 2001. However, as studies have shown that a number of drivers in that process formed not immediately, but in the past decades and is not affiliated with global anti-terrorist operation. At the same time it was stated that the continuation of the development of the identified trends in the coming years will pose serious challenges to the safety management process in the Muslim world, which would entail a significant increase in political and military resources of the USA to maintain stability in the Muslim world. In this regard, stressing the crucial importance of creating a unified strategy for transformation of the Muslim world, which would contribute to reducing the impact of religious and political extremism and the decline of anti-American sentiment in the world.
One of the significant results of the study was the development of a typology of ideological tendencies in the different areas of the Muslim world. Was developed and the methodology for the various currents of Muslim ideology and Islam in General. Created methodology considers a more accurate classification of Muslim groups and allows to identify the regions into which the United States and its allies can rely in advancing its policies in the Muslim world. In the so-called "religious-political map of the Muslim world", allowing to identify the principal contradictions and schisms in the Muslim world, primarily between Shiite and Sunni, and between Arab and non-Arab population of the Islamic world. Here are the results of this and similar studies, and found its practical implementation in the revolutionary events of the winter of 2011.
And the most analysts can only admire how steadily and competently "master" on the construction of the Temple of the New world order.
1http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/02/25/introducing-the-revolting-index/?KEYWORDS=azerbaijan. Several digress note that, in our opinion, the appearance of such index in the Wall Street Journal blog is not random, and it's not only in the Arab countries. The deterioration of the global economy has increased social tensions throughout the world and even in prosperous Europe (meaning not just Greece). Some futurists make gloomy predictions for the U.S.: the Institute for trend research Gerald Celente (they call us Nostradamus, because he predicted the collapse of stock markets in 1987, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Asian crisis of 1997). believes that American hegemony will soon come to an end and that America is waiting for food riots that will culminate in the revolution.
2 "Velvet revolution" in North Africa: how it's done in Egypt, http://www.csef.ru/studies/defence/projects/theory_of_information_war/articles/1194.
3 the importance of this factor says at least the fact that the state Department opens the microblogging site Twitter in Chinese, Russian, Hindi, and in this light it is not surprising that after the resignation of Mubarak Barack Obama (dubbed the "on-line President") met privately with the heads of major IT companies (a kind of "feast of winners").
4 W. Engdahl, the Egyptian revolution: "creative destruction" for the greater Middle East? http://www.warandpeace.ru/ru/exclusive/view/55198/.
5 a Few loose translation of the phrase "Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture".
6 Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture, National Intelligense Council, Europian Union Institute for Security Studies, September 2010, http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Global__Governance_2025.pdf.
7 the Authors draw an analogy with the situation after the Congress of Vienna (1814), when the principles of European settlement acted for about half a century – see H. Kissinger, Diplomacy, (Chapter 4, "the concert of Europe": great Britain, Austria and Russia). M.: Ladomir, 1994 , p. 66.
8Cm. T. Bordachev, the New strategic Alliance. Russia and Europe are facing the challenges of the XXI century: opportunities of a "big deal". M.: "Europe", 2009. Remember also that the "European Concert" of the 19th century European powers "performed" together with Russia.
10 Note that according to the NIC report terrorism remains a global threat and in 2025. – despite the fact that "al-Qaeda" in the near future, most likely, will cease to exist. The "weaknesses "of al-Qaeda", – experts say NIC, is unrealizable strategic objectives and the failure to find popular support and self-destructive actions."
11 note that these processes, despite claims by some analysts to the contrary, in principle, should reduce the role of Iran and Turkey in the region, despite their attempts to get the dividends from what is happening there now processes.
Gagik Harutyunyan, Sergey Grinyaev
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