Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / Great Arab Revolution / Articles
The birth of a new power center as a result of the Arab revolution
Material posted: Pankratenko Igor N.Publication date: 20-04-2011

Analysis of the situation of the last month suggests that the U.S. plan to reformat the greater Middle East has reached the limits of their capabilities. There is no reason to assert that he is fully and exactly as expected its authors. Blitzkrieg democracy in Libya and Syria failed, and the situation of Yemen full of obscurity, although the country's transition under external control, Saudi Arabia is becoming more apparent. In other States, the situation comes back to normal. Game over?

Not at all. Rather – beginning of the next stage, which can be called "digesting zalachenko" or more politely, a reflection of the new geopolitical alignment. And, more importantly, the implementation of "non-obvious" purposes.

A distinctive feature of American foreign combinations (as, in fact, and the whole of European diplomacy) requires the presence in them of elements of the "strategy of indirect action". Suffice it to recall, as the information noise around Libya by the Qadhafi regime actively tied Lukashenko and Belarus. The media were full of reports that Belarus was supplying Gaddafi with weapons that government forces operate in the Belarusian military advisers. There were people who, fully justifying the principle of "lying like an eyewitness" claimed that Gaddafi is either already sits in the plane, the next flight Tripoli to Minsk, already spotted on the streets of Minsk.

Something similar is happening now with Iran.

On 17 April, the cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) called on the UN security Council to stop Iran's interference in the internal Affairs of the countries-participants of the organization. In the official statement specifically States that "the GCC calls on the international community, the UN security Council to take all necessary measures to stop blatant interference of Iran, threats and provocations, which he seeks to sow discord in the countries-participants of the organization"[1].

Three days before, at a press briefing, state Department spokesman mark Toner publicly stated that it has credible information that Iran is helping the Syrian government in suppressing anti-government protests: "although the Iranian government, there are obvious problems with human rights in their own country, it is trying to interfere in the Affairs of regional neighbors. We believe that we have credible information that Iran is trying to help Syria. I will not go into details concerning this material support, but for us it is a matter of serious concern". [2]

Needless to say, that since writing the article that the Iranian intervention in Bahrain is nothing more than a propaganda myth, touted in the mass media [3], my opponents and there was no evidence that this intervention actually took place to be. With all the accusations of Iran "meddling", as rightly says Hussein Ibish, "so far only one side – the government (of Bahrain – P. I.) and his allies used weapons" [4].

Moreover, the main destroyer of this myth was made by one of his parents, king Hamad bin ISA al-Khalifa, who had the temerity at the meeting of the GCC on April 10 called – in a close circle, to state that "Iran played no role in the political events in Bahrain" [5].

Summary: statement by al-Khalifa (who was present as a guest) members of the Council had been ignored, the media happened about the embarrassment politely said nothing, and all sorts of academic experts keep saying that "Iran, by the logic of events, could plan the changing nature of power in Bahrain and its transformation into the Islamic state close in political orientation to Iran" [6].

Of course, if we proceed from such logic, Iran could plan anything. Similarly, in the framework of this logic, Japan could be planning armed aggression against the Russian Federation with the purpose to seize the Kuril Islands, and the Mexican government is deploying Subversion in the U.S. with the aim of returning to itself of Texas.

Such "logic" has nothing to do with Analytics and more belongs to the realm of conspiracy. Or rather the propaganda, in which someone is lying louder and more often – he is right, and listen, contrary to common sense, all the "progressive international community". This is not logic, but the result of contusion during the information war, so it makes no sense to seriously consider such statements. History and international relations are not developing in the framework of such constructions, and at the borders, asked the economic and socio-political realities.

Actually, the one quoted above could not be considered. And how heavily will not nastavitvena and every episode of the information war – not nabereshsya.

Another thing is interesting. According to the results of reformatting the greater Middle East we see a looming new geopolitical situation. Such strong regional players like Egypt and Libya in the near future will be of interest only to journalists and not be able to play any significant role in the region. Sudan has set back its development for a couple of decades ago and in the short term, are doomed to infighting with all the ensuing consequences, up to becoming a "land of war" and a haven for terrorist groups.

Who was left? During the "reformatting" and "democratization" turned out to be that indeed a real force in the region today represent only the cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCG). The result of rage "of the Arab spring of democracy" is the rise of the undemocratic parts of the greater Middle East – block "oil cats the Persian Gulf". Gone was the smell of Jasmine, a little information noise died down, and before us – a new regional player. We were threatened with the "Muslim brotherhood", a mythical Islamic fundamentalists, allegedly from day to day come to power in the countries undergoing "democratic reformation". Please – there was a strengthening of regimes that even the most biased observer can not be called secular. And, interestingly, this strengthening has occurred with the full support of calling for democratization of the West.

Go from words to numbers. They are quite significant.

The aggregate economic power of CCG in comparison with the most active foreign policy in relation to the States of the region are presented in chart no 1:

Economic potential (GDP) of some States of the greater Middle East (2010, in billion $)

Source: The World Factbook (CIA) [6]

Not less revealing looks the comparison of military expenditures CCG and these States in chart no 2:


Military expenditures of some States of the greater Middle East (2010, in billion $)

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) [8]


According to standard techniques[9], we have in geo-economic space formed regional pole. And in geostrategic – there is a transformation of the subject-pole into a regional center of power.

How wise it is to speak of six States (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia), members of CCG as a subject of foreign policy?

I'm generally very cautious attitude to potential foreign opportunities associations and blocs of States. Agree, to perceive the SCO, and even more entirely virtual BRICS as the beginning of a reorganization of the world order, a direct challenge to the claims of the global financial elite of the West to world dominance by relying on the USD and military strength is an outstanding optimism and the crystal nezamestnanosti view of the world need to have!

However, in the case of CCG believe that my conclusion about the organization as a single subject of foreign policy has a basis in fact:

  • these States have common economic and political interests,
  • these States have similar forms of government,
  • these States are United by a common religion, protection and distribution of which consider it their sacred duty.

These States focused on the US, which are their strategic ally and guarantor of security of these States and ruling dynasties within them.

These States pursue the same foreign policy. Moreover, in realizing the common goals, as recent events have shown, they are very active and aggressive.

Add to this, as the final touch, a joint nuclear programme in these countries [10] - and in the end get something like a geopolitical unsinkable aircraft carrier, dropped anchor at a key point of the globe.

Only one fact of appearance of such an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" in the Persian Gulf, the results of reformatting the greater Middle East for the US should be considered a success.

Of course, the media landscape looks all the decorum and noble. Is "Iranian threat". There is protection from her – "the Arabian Gulf Shield".

Here only any more or less versed in military Affairs people understand that the shield itself is a pretty useless thing. To him must be accompanied by the sword. And where will be a directed edge of this sword, I think there are no questions.


The sources used

  2. The state Department on the situation in Syria and Bahrain
  3. Six myths about events in Bahrain
  4. King Hamad: Iran has no role in Bahrain unrest
  5. The escalation of tensions in the Kingdom of Bahrain: the impact of Iran factor
  6. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
  7. ARIN O. Twenty-first century: the world without Russia M. 2001, SS. 258-260
  8. In December 2009, the UAE signed with South Korea a contract worth $40 billion for the construction of 4 nuclear reactors. It is expected that the first nuclear reactor in the UAE would be launched into commercial operation in 2017.

Author: Igor Pankratenko

Tags: Iran , USA , Libya , Africa

RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics