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The situation in Syria will repeat the Libyan scenario?
Material posted: Publication date: 26-08-2011

Unrest in Libya has drawn attention to events in another country in the region – Syria. A similar scenario of the emerging situation suggests that the outcome can be very similar.


About what in reality is happening today in Syria, the correspondent of the CCI-inform said Ankhar Kochneva, writer, orientalist, Director of the tourist company "Jordan club".

What is the situation today in Syria? What moods prevail among the population?

– The vast majority of Syrians wearily. I missed the old quiet life. Many have lost the ability to feed their families because of "sagging" important for Syria's economic sectors like trade, tourism, transportation. If there are no tourists, and suffers trade, and manufacturing: goods are not sold, no one to buy. And agriculture – no food requirements, as in the presence of a large number of foreigners. And it should be noted that in Syria – a private business, not government. I.e. those who provoke these riots, literally crawls into the pockets of Syrian citizens, depriving them of the usual income. Do you think this can like? Therefore, all want the situation stabilized. Anyone who is used to work and earn money, who have something to lose, and what he does not want to lose, he made his own, wants that the army has restored order and returned to the country of its habitual measured life. Because before all these events, Syria was probably the most stable and safest country in the region. And now my friends in some parts of the country on an almost daily basis to tell that at them under Windows then the dynamite will explode, machine guns shoot. One of the main slogans of the demonstrations in support of government action: "God bless the army". In Syria, the universal conscription, normal people understand that are in it are the same guys as their own children. So when can feed, take out trays of tea. Many do it including and only because I know that at the other end of the country likewise other complete strangers to feed and water their own son.

There are areas where until now there were no riots. And there are such areas, where citizens are now well aware of what was happening in Chechnya when there was handled the bandits. Right now I have some de ja vu, to be honest. The same methods, the same tactics. The same "local personnel" fortified with goodness knows where from undertaken "foreign colleagues". And, by the way, the same howl in the foreign press, who called the bandits and separatists freedom fighters Yes independence. Then, all the Arab countries, only Syria was called by the militants militants.

Those who several months ago was not an ardent supporter of the President, today, agree that he is that figure who can guarantee a return to stability. Other politicians of such level in Syria no. Even the opposition – the opposition is normal and not terrorizing Syrians bandits – say, if Bashar leave now, we are the first to call him a traitor, he has no right to do so.

Who is interested in the overthrow of Assad? How profitable, for example, Turkey (or Iran, or Israel) to support the Syrian opposition?

– Iran is one of Syria's allies, so the instability in Syria is not needed. Moreover, if the Syrian government will be difficult to cope and the situation will get out of control, it is likely to provide Iran with real support. But this is only the case if Syria asked. In the meantime, the Syrians handle themselves. And do what you need to do in this situation. Despite the attempts of so-called "international community" to force Syria to retreat and to give the bandits to turn the tide in their favour, capturing entire cities and villages.

With the help of the corrupt media world tend to think about some peaceful demonstrators (by the way, most of those who really understand what is happening in Syria, these two words have become accepted quote), shoot from tanks. However, no evidence for this, no matter how I do stuff "opposition", they are not able to provide. There are no such frames, despite the abundance of distributed expensive mobile phones with the functions of video – everywhere or outright fraud (not the places, not the time of year, some other, and not the Syrian army – Syrian army in no shape with short sleeves), or something vague: somewhere to run, and not visible from anyone (maybe not anyone) – eyewitnesses describe such performances. There is a wonderful video someone filmed how to remove the rollers shelled the crowd. The actors were writhing on the pavement, representing victims of terror, and between them went "operators" and don't fear bullets shot game extras. Remarkably, for the first time this video was posted on the Internet two months before in Syria, the first demonstration. I.e. the information war was prepared in advance. As confirmed by numerous publications on the subject appeared several years ago.

As for Israel, they understand that Bashar is not going anywhere. Too great confidence of their own people. If now to vote for him no less than 95 % of the votes. It is evident, enough to stay in Syria a day, to be sure. Immediately absolutely not Tunisian, Egyptian, Yemeni and Libyan't even an option: President young, when it the country has changed for the better (I'm appalled at some of the "analysts" who claim that there is no single "Assad regime" are two completely different countries!). And most importantly – unlike other heads of States where unrest is occurring, he's the only one not only fulfill the demands of the demonstrators and constructive opposition, but often doing the steps in advance. The Israelis know that he's not going anywhere. So they can afford to the public theater to panormiti foreheads, to cry on the topic "what will happen to us if he leaves?" and with all this drain for reprint in Russian-language media articles aimed at the dehumanization of a country still at war. They don't need a change of government in Syria (and they know that it will not), but they are very interested in the chair under Bashar was shaking. Such is the fine Eastern game.

As for Turkey, there is more difficult. A few days ago, the bandits had to carry out a provocation in Latakia, but the army cleared houses and freed the people who had prepared the role of victims allegedly killed by the army, which was supposed to "defend" NATO in Turkey. But the provocation failed. In fact, it is believed, and it can be confirmed by the facts that Turkey is blackmailing the US. Or it helps to divide and weaken Syria, but because it guaranteed her territorial integrity, either under threat of losing part of the territory when the Americans Kurdistan.

How, in your opinion, perhaps open armed intervention of foreign States in Syria by the Libyan or similar scenario?

– The Libyan scenario can't complete. Because, unlike Libya, Syria failed to create any districts that were completely under the control of bandits, which it would be possible to declare a party in need of assistance in the struggle for democracy. In Libya was Benghazi. In Syria, this "Benghazi" to create was not given. If unable to dislodge the bandits from the Louts, perhaps it would be announced as the capital of the rebels, seeded posts, etc. There is a danger of invasion by Turkey, the official invasion – so far there's only an unofficial militants who came from there (as, indeed, from Iraq). But it will only be the case if Syria will be able to make some filthy bloody provocation. And, alas, I think that the attempts of the organization of these reasons for intervention will be. Because someone really does not want to see a new Syria, a truly democratic and tempered, which became stronger as a result of all these tests.

If the opposition will manage to achieve the resignation of Assad, what are the consequences of waiting for Syria and the region as a whole (given that the authorities and the situation already changed in many countries in the region)?

– Let us first understand what the opposition. There are two of them. One normal, constructive – she now actively participates in the creation of new laws. Already created the first batch: after the abolition of monopattino system one of its leaders will be former Jazeera's correspondent in Moscow Akram Khuzam. This opposition always says: we are not against the President, we for democratic change. I think these people will not seek the resignation of Bashar. And those who took up arms... This "opposition" has no program, no leaders. They are ordinary bandits. As they say, "well, who'd they get?". By the way, yesterday I sent a new video. That created the bandits in Jisr Shughour. I heard that it was scary, but so so...

I think these things need to show to the greatest number of people. To ensure that as few people as possible were called white black and black white.

Interviewed By Anastasia Kazimirko-Kirillova


Tags: Russia , Syria , USA , Libya , Africa

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